Weekly Charts Reading for 3/03- 3/07
Peace or Power Struggle Ahead?
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
How’s last week?
Last week, I posted daily that bears might lose control step by step, but for that to happen, bulls had to reclaim key levels one by one. Instead, bears stayed in control all week—most days, price couldn't even reach the first resistance on the hourly/4hr. Bulls got close a few times, but bears shut them down fast.
On Friday morning, I noted that #ES and #NQ were bouncing off key weekly supports (5860 & 20505), setting up for a relief rally. That played out after a quick dip below those levels, followed by a strong reclaim (failed breakdown, anyone?).
A surprise move: #PA and #PL dropped fast once key supports gave out.
#CL hit 68.45 support exactly and bounced.
#SI lost its first key support at 32.45, then tested 31.56.
#GC made a new ATH on Monday but quickly pulled back to test 2846 support.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (3/03 – 3/07)
Mixed market to end the week.
#YM closed green after a 4.5% pullback, but needs to reclaim 43,935 on the daily for short-term bullish confirmation.
#ES closed red but held monthly support at 5,945. However, the slight red monthly close hints that if support fails, 5,745/25 could be tested.
#NQ & #RTY suggest more downside unless bulls quickly reclaim NQ Wednesday’s high and RTY last week’s high—this is their chance, or the chop continues.
Next week:
Usual economic reports start Monday.
Tuesday: Quiet—no major reports.
Friday: NFP, Unemployment, and JPowell’s speech—expect volatility.
Earnings season rolls on with mega caps like $COST, $AVGO, plus $AZO, $TGT, $MDB, $ASTS, $CRWD, and more.
Bottom line: Bulls have work to do—first reclaim Wednesday’s high, then last week’s high on the daily, then weekly. If last week’s low fails on the daily, bears still run the show, and deeper downside is possible.
Key Reminders:
Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).
I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.
Events Calendar :
Quick Summary:
#ES Bullish above 5900, Bearish below 5860
Bulls weak < 6068
Bears keep momentum < 6016
#NQ Bullish above 20685, Bearish below 20540
Bulls weak < 21815
Bears keep momentum < 21460
#RTY Bullish above 2148, Bearish below 2136
Bulls weak < 2286
Bears keep momentum < 2220
#YM Bullish above 43500, Bearish below 43230
Bulls weak < 44685
Bulls keep momentum > 43500
#SI Bullish above 31.52, Bearish below 31.48
Bulls weak < 32.85
If 31.52 holds: 31.80, 31.95, 32.09, 32.54+ in play
If 32.57 claimed: 32.85, 33.10, 33.35+ in play
If 31.48 fails: 31.135, 31, 30.83, 30.775- in play
If 30.82 fails: 30.49, 30.36, 30.235, 30.09, 29.80, 29.30- in play
In a deeper pullback, bulls must hold/defend or reclaim 30.83 quickly, or 30.09, 29.80, 29.30 likely
Bulls lose control on daily 31.52 → 30.83
#GC Bullish above 2855, Bearish below 2847
Bulls weak < 2897
If 2855 holds: 2877, 2890/96, 2902, 2911, 2931/36+ in play
If 2936 claims: 2951/57, 2965, 2975, 3000+ in play
If 2847 fails: 2837, 2829/26, 2813, 2803- in play
In case of deeper pullback, bulls must defend 2829
If 2875 fails: 2870, 2856, 2850/2846, 2837/30, 2825- in play
Bulls lose control step by step 2875 → 2837 → 2795
#PL Bullish above 938, Bearish below 937
Bulls weak < 1000
If 938 holds: 952, 956, 960/62, 966, 978 in play
If 978 claimed: 983, 993, 999, 1004, 1012, 1019+ in play
If 937 fails: 928, 924, 910/907, 900, 891, 884 in play
If 884 fails: 879, 873, 867, 851, 846- in play
Bears lose control step by step 996 → 979 → 1000 → 1019
Based on monthly close, 910 in play until 1000 is claimed
#PA Bullish above 911, Bearish below 900
Bulls weak < 990
If 911 holds: 931, 946, 952, 960, 981, 990 in play
If 990 claimed: 996, 1003, 1008, 1018/1020+ in play
If 900 fails: 896, 890, 864, 837, 825, 813, 809- in play
Bears lose control step by step 931 → 946 → 990 → 1020
Based on monthly close, if 900 fails to hold, a fast move to test 825/813- is likely
#CL Bullish above 69.35, Bearish below 68.77
Bulls weak < 73.20
Bears control < 74.75
If 69.35/68.77 holds: 70.46, 70.90, 71.26, 72.58, 73.20 in play
If 73.20 claimed: 73.70, 74.15, 74.55, 74.75, 75.20+ in play
If 68.77 fails: 68.44, 68.19, 68, 67.70, 67.20- in play
In case of deeper pullback, bulls must defend 68
Bears lose control step by step 71.25 → 73.20 → 74.75
Quick Plays:
#ES:
Key Levels Recap:
Feb 21: Failed to hold key 6078/6070 support.
Feb 24: Back test of 6070 failed; reversed from 6068 without giving bulls a chance to reclaim.
Feb 28: Bears controlled until the afternoon when the next key support failed but was quickly reclaimed.
Current Outlook:
Bulls weak below: 6068
Bears keep momentum below: 6016
Despite 6068 being unclaimed on the daily, if 5900 holds, bulls have a shot at 5990, 6007, 6016, 6024 in the short term.
6016 reclaim on the daily weakens bears' momentum.
Friday’s end-of-month squeeze hit 5965 (high: 5971) but failed to claim it—bulls need a quick reclaim, or a backtest of 5920/5900 is likely.
Until 6068 (or at least 6050) is reclaimed on the daily, long plays are just bounces in a downtrend.
Key monthly support: 5815/5742
Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls hold 5954/5920/5900 and reclaim 5965/80, 5990 to bring 6016*, 6024*, 6045/50, 6060/69*+ into play.
Ideal Bearish Scenario:
Bears hold 5990/6007 or below and push to claim 5900, then 5860 (hourly/4hr red close) to bring 5845*, 5814*, 5752, 5733*, 5690*, 5675*- into play.
Big Picture:
If 6016 reclaimed on daily: 6024/30/60/69*, 6117, 6150, 6248, 6290, 6385+ in play.
If 5880 fails on daily: 5814*, 5752*, 5733*/25*, 5691*, 5670*- in play.
If 5855 fails on daily: 5745*, 5725*- likely.
Support Levels:
Intra-day: 5954*, 5920*, 5900*, 5880*, 5860*
Daily: 5880*, 5855/45*, 5815*, 5750*
Weekly: 5860*, 5745*, 5670*
Monthly: 5860*, 5815/09*, 5742/24*, 5626*
Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005
Resistance Levels:
Intra-day: 5965*, 5980, 5990*, 6007*, 6024*
Daily: 5990, 6024*/30*, 6068*
Weekly: 6040*, 6068*, 6142*, 6164*
Monthly: 6068*, 6164*, 6248/6260*, 6310
Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.
Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.
#NQ:
Key Levels Recap:
Feb 20: Quick flush below 22040 to 21960, then reclaimed 22050 the same day—made me think bulls still had control.
I wrote an article about how my bias kept me from the ideal short when 21960 failed, and bears took over.
Current Outlook:
Bulls weak below: 21815
Bears keep momentum below: 21460
Based on Thursday’s close, unless 21410/460 is quickly reclaimed on the daily, the multi-week downtrend likely continues.
If 20460 fails on daily: 20040, 19860, 19500, 19185 in play.
If 20685 holds: 21250, 21375, 21410/460+ in play.
If 21460 reclaimed: 21700/21815 next.
If 21815 reclaimed: 22135/235, 22320, 22425+ next.
Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 21250 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls defend 20865/750/685 and quickly reclaim 20940 to push toward 20230/270, 20310/375, 21410/406*+
Ideal Bearish Scenario:
Bears hold 21250/21410 or below and push to claim 20680, then 20540 (hourly/4hr red close) to bring 20360/325*, 20110*/20025*, 19940*- in play.
Big Picture:
If 21410/460 reclaimed on daily: 21700/815*, 22135/235*, 22320, 22425+ in play.
If 21535 fails on daily: 20360/325*, 20040, 19940*, 19800*, 19635*, 19500*- in play.
Support Levels:
Intra-day: 20865*, 20750*, 20685*, 20590*, 20540*
Daily: 20540*/475*, 20325*, 20110*/20025*
Weekly: 20505*, 20140, 20000*, 19730*/500*
Monthly: 20070*/20010*, 19800*/600*, 18590*
Yearly: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465
Resistance Levels:
Intra-day: 20940*, 21060*, 21120*, 21230*, 21310*, 21380*
Daily: 21250*, 21410*/460*, 21700/815*
Weekly: 21700*/815*, 22235*, 22450*
Monthly: 21270*, 21700*/815*, 22320*
Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.
Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.
#RTY:
Key Levels Recap:
Week of Feb 17: Bulls needed to claim 2307 on the daily or at least on the 4-hour for bullish continuation.
The week’s high reached 2303.4, and bears took control, pushing prices down for the last two weeks.
Current Outlook:
Bulls weak below: 2286
Bears keep momentum below: 2220
Last week formed a lower high and lower low on the weekly.
Until bulls reclaim last week's high on the daily and then on the weekly, bears control the market, with 2090/83, 1991* likely in play.
Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 2204 → 2220* → 2264 → 2286*
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls hold 2162/54/48 and quickly reclaim 2172 to target 2183/86, 2195, 2206, and 2220*+
A close above 2220 on the hourly or 4-hour would reinforce bullish momentum.
Ideal Bearish Scenario:
Bears hold 2206/2220 and quickly claim 2148, then 2136 (hourly/4hr red close) to bring 2132, 2106/2100, 2091*, 2075, 2065, 2058*, 1999* in play.
Big Picture:
If 2149 holds & 2220 is claimed on the daily: 2248/58*, 2264, 2286*, 2304*+ in play.
If 2136 fails on the daily: 2091, 2058, 2040, 1999* in play.
Support Levels:
Intra-day: 2154, 2149*, 2136*, 2132*
Daily: 2132, 2100*/2091, 2075*/2063*
Weekly: 2091/2083*, 2058*, 2037*
Monthly: 2068*/2032*, 1999*, 1975*, 1905*
Yearly: 2194/2181*, 2058*, 1972*
Resistance Levels:
Intra-day: 2172*, 2183/86*, 2195, 2200*
Daily: 2183/86*, 2206*, 2220*, 2238*
Weekly: 2220*, 2264*/2286*, 2290*/2304*
Monthly: 2248*/2258*, 2337*, 2445*
Yearly: 2290*, 2463, 2615/2756
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 2181/2058 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2315, 2463, 2615/2756+.
Bearish: If bears hold 2315/2445, targets 2081*, 2058*, 1972, 1916-.
#YM:
Key Levels Recap:
Week of Feb 17: Bulls needed to claim 44750 to continue the bullish move toward 44815+.
The week's high reached 44760, but bulls failed to claim 44750, allowing bears to take control for the past two weeks.
However, Friday’s rebound closed the week in green, signaling potential temporary strength.
Current Outlook:
Bulls weak below: 44685
Bulls maintain momentum above: 43500 (continuing Friday's strength)
Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 43935 → 44330* → 44685 → 44750*
Key weekly support: 43325
Key monthly support: 43285
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls hold 43820/650/500 and reclaim 43935* to resume testing 44080, 44330*/385*, 44685, 44750*+
A close above 44080 on the hourly and 4-hour confirms bullish intent to target 44330*/385, 44750+
Ideal Bearish Scenario:
Bears defend 43935/44080 and first claim 43500, then 43230 (hourly/4hr red close) to bring 42760*, 42520, 42365, 42120* in play.
Big Picture:
If 43530 holds & 43935 is reclaimed on the daily: 44260, 44330*, 44685*+ in play.
If 43285/230 fails on the daily: 42810/750*, 42520, 42205*, 42120* in play.
Support Levels:
Intra-day: 43820, 43650, 43500, 43230/200, 43170*
Daily: 43530*, 43155, 42755*, 42365, 42185*
Weekly: 43285*, 42205*, 42090/41960*
Monthly: 43285, 42875*, 41970**/41790*
Yearly: 40330*/41260, 40100/39335, 37900
Resistance Levels:
Intra-day: 43935*, 44010, 44080/44100*, 44240, 44330*
Daily: 43935*, 44330*, 44685*, 44750*
Weekly: 43950*, 44655*, 45050*
Monthly: 44450*, 45050*, 45290*, 45900
Yearly: 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 41790/40100 holds or is reclaimed, targets 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685+.
Bearish: If bears hold 44485/45050, targets 41790/40100/37870-.
[BONUS]
The following trade plans were generated by ChatGPT using my method and the chart levels above. Use your judgment to make your own decisions.
Not financial advice.
#ES
Summary Notes:
Above 6016 → Bulls gain ground step by step toward 6068+
Below 5900 → Bears in full control targeting deeper support zones
Key Pivot Zones: 5965, 6016, 6068
Long Setup:
Support Hold Long – 5900 Holds
Entry: 5900 reclaim with confirmation
Stop-Loss: Below 5880
Targets: 5920 → 5954 → 5965*
Why Level Was Chosen: 5900 is a key support; holding it opens the door for a short-term bounce toward resistance levels.
Breakout Long – 5965 Reclaim
Entry: 5965 reclaim with hourly/4hr close above
Stop-Loss: Below 5954
Targets: 5980 → 5990* → 6007*
Why Level Was Chosen: 5965 was the prior high; reclaiming it suggests bulls gaining control and pushing toward key resistance levels.
Breakout Long – 6016 Daily Close
Entry: 6016 reclaim on the daily close
Stop-Loss: Below 6007
Targets: 6024* → 6045 → 6060/69*
Why Level Was Chosen: 6016 is a major pivot; clearing it weakens bear momentum and aligns with a step-by-step bullish reversal structure.
Reclaim & Hold Long – 6050 Reclaim on Hourly
Entry: 6050 reclaim with hourly close
Stop-Loss: Below 6040
Targets: 6068* → 6117 → 6150
Why Level Was Chosen: 6050-6068 is the last key area before a significant breakout; bulls gain strong momentum above this level.
Short Setup:
Breakdown Short – 5990/6007 Rejection
Entry: Short at 5990/6007 rejection with reversal candle
Stop-Loss: Above 6010
Targets: 5965 → 5920 → 5900*
Why Level Was Chosen: 5990-6007 is a major resistance; failing here confirms a downside continuation toward key supports.
Breakdown Short – 5900 Failure
Entry: Short on 5900 failure with hourly close below
Stop-Loss: Above 5910
Targets: 5880* → 5860* → 5845*
Why Level Was Chosen: Losing 5900 puts lower key supports in play and aligns with bearish continuation.
Breakdown Short – 5880 Daily Close Below
Entry: Short on a daily close below 5880
Stop-Loss: Above 5895
Targets: 5855 → 5815* → 5752*
Why Level Was Chosen: A break below 5880 confirms bears gaining full control, accelerating downside moves.
Breakdown Short – 5855/45 Failure
Entry: Short on 5855/45 failure with rejection wick
Stop-Loss: Above 5865
Targets: 5815* → 5750* → 5725*
Why Level Was Chosen: Losing 5855/45 brings larger downside levels into play, with 5750 being a strong weekly target.
#NQ
Summary Notes:
Above 21460 → Bulls take control step by step toward 21815+
Below 20685 → Bears in control, targeting deeper support levels
Key Pivot Zones: 21250, 21410, 21815
Long Setup:
Support Hold Long – 20685 Holds
Entry: 20685 holds with confirmation
Stop-Loss: Below 20600
Targets: 20865* → 20940* → 21060*
Why Level Was Chosen: 20685 is a key support level; holding it confirms bulls stepping in for a bounce toward short-term resistance.
Breakout Long – 21250 Reclaim
Entry: 21250 reclaim with hourly/4hr close above
Stop-Loss: Below 21180
Targets: 21310 → 21410*/460* → 21700*
Why Level Was Chosen: 21250 is a resistance level; reclaiming it weakens bear momentum and brings 21410/460 into play.
Breakout Long – 21460 Daily Close
Entry: 21460 reclaim on the daily close
Stop-Loss: Below 21380
Targets: 21700* → 21815* → 22135/235*
Why Level Was Chosen: 21460 is a major pivot, and a confirmed breakout strengthens the bullish case toward key resistance levels.
Reclaim & Hold Long – 21815 Reclaim
Entry: 21815 reclaim with hourly close
Stop-Loss: Below 21700
Targets: 22135/235* → 22320 → 22425+
Why Level Was Chosen: 21815 is a key breakout level; clearing it shifts momentum fully to the bulls with upside targets in play
Short Setup:
Breakdown Short – 21250/21410 Rejection
Entry: Short at 21250/21410 rejection with reversal confirmation
Stop-Loss: Above 21460
Targets: 21060 → 20865 → 20685*
Why Level Was Chosen: 21250-21410 is a strong resistance zone; failing to break it confirms continued bearish pressure.
Breakdown Short – 20685 Failure
Entry: Short on 20685 failure with hourly close below
Stop-Loss: Above 20750
Targets: 20590* → 20540* → 20360*
Why Level Was Chosen: Losing 20685 opens the door for lower support tests, aligning with bearish continuation.
Breakdown Short – 20540 Daily Close Below
Entry: Short on a daily close below 20540
Stop-Loss: Above 20590
Targets: 20325* → 20110*/20025* → 19940*
Why Level Was Chosen: A breakdown under 20540 signals bearish control, with deeper levels in play.
Breakdown Short – 20040/19940 Failure
Entry: Short on 20040/19940 failure with rejection candle
Stop-Loss: Above 20100
Targets: 19800* → 19635* → 19500*
Why Level Was Chosen: Losing 20040 confirms further downside momentum, accelerating selling pressure toward key weekly supports.
Guidelines for Entry Confirmation
Candle Close Rules:
Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.
Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.
Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.
Handling Breakouts:
High Probability of Initial Failure:
Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.
Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.
Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.
Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.
Typical Stop Loss Examples:
#ES_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.
#NQ_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.
Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.
What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?
More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above
Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly
Short-term: Daily
Long-term: Weekly
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.