When Bias Holds You Back
A Personal Lesson on Flexibility and Trusting Price Action
I won’t be able to publish my regular weekly newsletter tomorrow.
Instead, I’ve put together a review of my trades from yesterday on #NQ—with lessons and insights. I’m always working on improving every day, and I hope you find it helpful too.
Would love to hear your thoughts—share your comments below!
Yesterday (Friday, Feb 21st, 2025) was one of those days that, looking back, offers a lot of lessons. It started off with a bounce I was expecting at 22050 after #NQ failed to hold daily support at 22125 and slid to that key level. I anticipated a bounce at 22050, and entered a long trade there. This time, I took a direct entry without waiting for confirmation from the 15m candle close. It's unusual for me to go long from a level close to a failed support at 22125 without confirmation, but I decided to take the trade anyway.
I posted my bias as bullish, and for a brief moment, it looked good—price bounced 60 points, hitting my first 1:2 target before reversing back to stop loss at breakeven. Some traders might've even ended up with a loss on this one, so there were a lot of lessons to absorb.
Later, I was eyeing 21980 as a potential defense spot for bulls, but I decided to wait for price to reclaim 22050 before going long again. Price stalled between 21960-22030, but it never made that 22050 reclaim I was looking for. Instead, it reversed lower, and the opportunity slipped away.
Missed Short Opportunity
Now, here's where I really dropped the ball. I missed a clean short setup at failure of 21960. Looking back, I can’t say exactly why—I guess I was still carrying a lingering bullish bias. But in hindsight, that short was the much cleaner trade, and I simply didn’t take it. Classic mistake: sticking too hard to a bias and not executing when the setup presents itself.
As the day went on, I posted that I’d consider a long at 21860 (which would align with Thursday's open), but only if I got confirmation from a 15m or hourly close. To clarify, when I said, “If it fails—I’m sidelined for the day! ” on X (Twitter), I didn’t mean I’d avoid trading if 21860 failed as a level. I meant that if I took a long trade on a valid setup and it failed, I wouldn’t take any more long trades for the day.
However, the setup didn’t come through, and in fact the 15m candle closed below 21860. This time, I flipped my bias, taking the short according to my weekly plan (last Thursday’s open failed to hold). It ended up being the right move, and I finished the day positive.
Here are long & short trade setups from my last weekly newsletter for reference.
Why short at 21860 instead of 21820?
The weekly plan was to short at 21820 but 21860 was also the price at Thursday's open (Feb 13th, 2025), which I had already identified as a key level for bulls to defend against a deeper pullback. With price dropping sharply, the 15m red candle close at this level provided a trend-following entry. Once it broke, the downtrend and momentum were clear, making 21860 a solid entry for a short. If it reversed, my stop loss would’ve limited any further losses. More on trend-following in another article.
Why I Didn’t Post the Short at 21860 ?
After some traders had taken a loss on the earlier long trade, I hesitated to post the short setup. I didn’t want others to potentially take another loss, especially after the first trade had gone against the bias. But this time, the short setup worked nicely, and I learned important lessons:
Key Takeaways
Bias Awareness: Recognize when your bias is clouding your judgment. I was too focused on the long side, even when a valid short setup presented itself.
The Short at 21960 Was a Missed Opportunity: I had the setup but didn’t pull the trigger. This is a reminder to execute the plan, not the emotions.
Stick to the Plan: It’s crucial to stick with your game plan, regardless of what happened in previous trades. Waiting for the setup is key!!
Be Flexible: Don’t lock into one bias. The market will show you the way. Yesterday, I failed to follow that advice.
Take Profits Level to Level: Especially against the trend and trail the stop as target hits.
These lessons also made me reflect on a few contributing factors that I think could have played a role in my missed opportunities:
1. Started the Day Late – Lack of Preparation
I didn’t take the time to review the bigger picture before the session. When you skip this step, it’s easy to focus only on the immediate price action and get caught up in reacting instead of executing a planned strategy. Without a solid pre-market review, I found myself reacting to the bounces instead of anticipating failure points or recognizing key levels earlier. It could explain why I went long at 22050 without confirmation or missed the short setup when it appeared.
2. Thursday’s Bullish Defense & Perceived Strength
Thursday’s strong recovery at 21960 and quick reclaim of 22050 that could have mentally reinforced a bullish bias coming into Friday. This might have made me expect the same reaction at those levels rather than treating each session independently.
3. Missed the Key 22250 Reclaim for Bullish Confirmation
The true bullish confirmation would have been a reclaim of 22250, where last Wednesday’s (Feb 19th) sell-off began, leading to this Thursday’s (Feb 20th) test of 21960. Friday’s high stopped just short of 22250, and that was an early sign of weakness. If I had recognized this before the session, I could have been more cautious with my longs and more aggressive with shorts. This was a huge lesson on the importance of tracking not just support/resistance, but also where key trend shifts occurred—especially when price action shows a failure to reclaim critical levels like 22250.
3. Overlooked My Own Key Level: 22310-22320
I also missed referencing my own analysis from the weekly newsletter, where I noted that bulls needed to claim 22310 for a sustained upside move. Tuesday’s high was precisely 22319.75 but failed to claim 22320. Overnight, a 4-hour candle closed above 22310, but the very next one turned strong red, signaling bears were stronger until that level is claimed. In hindsight, I should have wrote bulls as weak or bears strong below 22320 starting from Wednesday.
What I’ve Learned Moving Forward:
Pre-market preparation is key: Missing out on this left me reacting too much to what was happening in the moment instead of staying objective.
Each day is unique: Past support or resistance doesn't guarantee it will hold the same way again. Treat each session with fresh eyes.
Reclaiming key levels is critical for confirmation: The failure to claim 22250 level should’ve been a warning sign that bulls weren’t in control, and I should have adjusted my bias accordingly.
Trust my own levels: Every missed detail is a lesson, and every lesson makes me a stronger trader.
It’s important to remember that I preach not locking into a single bias—staying flexible and letting the market show me the way is key. Yesterday (Feb 21st, 2025), however, I violated a few of my own rules.
I didn’t wait for the confirmation candle on the 15m/1hr before entering.
Even though I was expecting a bullish move from 22050, the real confirmation would have only come after reclaiming the 22125 level. But I ignored that, even though I always say that when the second support or resistance fails or gets rejected, it confirms a trend continuation. I should’ve followed my own rule, but I didn’t.
That said, I did do a few things right. I didn’t rush into a long at 21960/980, even though I could’ve. Instead, I waited for a 22050 reclaim, which never came (although there was still another precise 60pt long trade). And finally, I stuck to my plan and flipped to short at 21860, which turned out to be the right move in the end.
I make mistakes, and I’m trying to improve every day. Acknowledging them and learning from them is all part of the plan.
Moving forward, I need to stay true to my rules, especially when it comes to confirmation and key levels, and focus on being flexible with my bias.
Final Thought:
I always say chart reading is only part of the trading game. The rest? Execution, risk management, and psychology. I can mark all the right levels, but if I don’t execute properly, manage risk, or control emotions, the best analysis in the world won’t help. This Friday (Feb 21st, 2025) wasn’t just about missing key levels—it was a reminder that trading is about making real-time decisions under pressure, and that’s where discipline makes all the difference!