Weekly Charts Reading for 3/25- 3/29
Stay Flexible: Watch Market Actions
How’s last week?
#ES retested 5185 on Tuesday, then hit a new all-time high at 5322.75 on Thursday before pulling back. Remember, 5185 was the level bulls held on Sunday, flipping my bias from bearish to bullish after swiftly claiming 5202.
#NQ started the week with a bearish vibe, but Sunday's bulls held immediate support and reclaimed 18152, flipping us to bullish for the week. Hit a new all-time high at 18709 on Thursday before retracing a bit.
#YM, as expected, hit another all-time high last week.
#RTY reached a new 52-week high at 2132.7 and then sharply pulled back on Friday.
#DXY as expected, continued bullish run and closed the week in strong green, closing above key resistance levels.
Last week, in the newsletter, I mentioned: "We might see a narrow range move to the upside on Sunday, Monday, or even Tuesday if bulls manage to hold the key support levels from Friday." It seems got two things right - 1) witnessed bullish moves on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, and 2) held onto those crucial support levels from Friday. However, I missed the mark on the prediction of a 'tight range to the upside'.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Upcoming Changes!
Based on a recent poll on X (formerly Twitter), it looks like most of you are mainly interested in #NQ and #ES. So, to keep things focused and easier to read, I've decided to stick to covering just those two from now on.
Also, if I don't hit 500 subscribers in the next couple of months, I might have to reconsider whether this newsletter is hitting the mark. It's a lot of work, and if it's not resonating with enough people, it might be time to call it quits.
A big thank you to those of you who've been cheering me on and encouraging me to keep publishing. Your support means the world!
Thanks, all!
Week Ahead (3/25 – 3/29)
Next week, on Friday, we'll be seeing those end-of-month candles.
Expect a bit of late-day volatility due to all the monthly and quarterly adjustments happening.
Keep in mind, we might see some price action reversing from what we may see earlier in the week.
It's just a possibility, not set in stone. But good to have it in mind as we approach Thursday and Friday.
Although all four index futures closed the week in green last week, Friday's pullback for #YM, #RTY, & #ES adds a bit of caution to our bullish bias.
It's okay as long as they hold onto their respective red flag levels for next week. Consider it a healthy pullback for the bulls, regardless of how quickly prices move down.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
Next week's shaping up to be quite eventful, especially with impactful events kicking off on Tuesday with the consumer confidence report. Keep an eye out as FOMC members take the stage throughout the week, potentially reversing gains from last Wednesday.
Mark your calendar for Wednesday evening after market close, as FOMC member Waller is expected to speak at a conference, followed by J. Powell on Friday. Alongside these, we have the usual suspects like GDP, unemployment claims, pending home sales, and consumer sentiment on Thursday, followed by core PCE on Friday.
All these events are likely to set the stage for end-of-month activity in the market. And, as always, brace yourself for some good ol' volatility around these events!
Note about charts:
Check out the daily chart links provided for a closer look at the detailed levels. You'll see how perfectly the Fibonacci levels played out for #ES_F, #NQ_F, and #YM_F.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Last week closed on a strong green note, but Friday's red close suggests a potential pause to that upward momentum.
Therefore, while maintaining a daily bias towards bearishness, the weekly bias is cautiously shifting towards bullishness.
If the slowdown from Friday extends into the early part of this week, there's a chance the week could end in red, warranting added caution to the bullish bias.
Bears have an opportunity to test levels around 5243/5233, but they must first breach the levels around 5285/5273.
The market displayed a controlled step-down sell-off after setting a new high on Thursday, a pattern seen in the past few months.
This situation could resolve in two ways: either bulls hold around 5285 or, failing that, around 5273 and begin reclaiming 5294/5303, indicating a continuation of the upward trend.
Alternatively, if the support levels around 5285/5273 fail, a rapid downward move towards 5243/5233 is likely.
In the event of a rapid drop below 5243, towards 5237/5234 followed by reclaiming of 5243 would suggest bulls holding the support.
Similarly, a swift dip below 5233 to around 5226, followed by reclaiming of 5233, could set up the next move back up towards 5293.
If 5233 fails and there's no quick recovery from 5226, bulls would be eyeing support around 5194/5182.
It's worth noting that a red day close below 5233 would trigger an orange flag, signaling doubts about the daily uptrend.
Now about possible bullish move:
Bulls can hold around 5285/5273 and then back test 5294/5303.
Claiming 5303 would give them confidence to test 5310.
Only after claiming 5311 can they march towards 5319 and potentially reach another new all-time high.
Bulls need to claim 5303 first to show intent and 5311 to demonstrate commitment.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 4420/4350 holds, targets remain at 5615/6110+.
🐻 Bearish: Trend will be assessed when the monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: As long as 4603/4548 holds or is reclaimed, focus is on 5256 (target already hit).
🐻 Bearish Goal: Trend determination hinges on the monthly trend turning bearish.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 5285/5273 holds and 5311 is claimed, targets include 5328/5343/5353.
🐻 Bearish: Failure around 5169 would bring 5145/5112/5090- into play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If support at 5285/5273 holds and 5303 is claimed, targets shift to 5311/5319.
Upon claiming 5311, attention turns to 5319/5328.
After claiming 5328, focus moves to 5337/5345.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 5273 fails to hold, targets are 5265/5243.
If 5243 fails, the next support levels to consider is 5233/5226.
If 5233 fails, 5194/5182- becomes the downside targets.
Zoomed-out View:
Bullish: Reclaiming 5311 would bring 5345/5353 into play.
Bearish: Failure to hold 5273 may lead to levels around 5233/5194/5182-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5294, 5303, 5311*, 5319, 5328*, 5337, 5345*, 5353*, 5366, 5377*
Support: 5285*, 5273*, 5265, 5253, 5243*, 5233/5226*, 5214, 5202, 5194*, 5182*
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As market moved up, moving flag levels up
Orange Flag: A close below 5233 would cast doubts on the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Closing below 5182 on a red day may question the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: A close below 5084 on a red day could void the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
After two red weeks, I had a bearish bias for last week.
At the same time, I had caution added as long 18040/18010 support holds, bulls still not giving up.
That's exactly what happened, and #NQ made a new ATH at 18709.
Now that the week closed in strong green as well as Friday's red day close still holding 18505 key support, changing bias to bullish.
The caution is added in case 18505 fails; then, we could see a move down to 18470/18430 support levels.
As long as bulls defend 18430, momentum from last Wednesday is likely to carry the price towards 19035 monthly target.
Possible bullish plays:
Sunday/Monday holds 18525/18505, go long with 18625 first target & when claimed 18695/18730 in play.
If price dips below 18505 to 18470 & quickly recovers 18505, could present a good setup for long trade.
If price indeed moves to 18430, on a smaller timeframe, look for signs that it's holding, & will go long with 18505/18525 as initial targets.
Possible bearish plays:
If 18430 fails, level by level bearish plays are actionable.
Besides those, if you are the one who likes to short the market when it's going up, I see two immediate possibilities: a) If 18505 fails, quick short to 18470 as first target and 18430 as second (likely to take profit a few points above these levels). b) If 18596 or 18625 is rejected & fails to hold 18525, could result in testing 18430.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 in play.
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 15955/15465 holds, 19035/19710/20190 in play.
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long 17040 holds, 16020/15955/15465 likely.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 18525 or 18505 holds or reclaimed, 18820/18925/19035+ in play.
🐻 Bearish: If 18430 fails, 18300/18225- in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 18525 or 18505 holds and claims 18625, 18695/18735 in play.
18695 claimed, 18820/18870/18925 next.
18820 claimed, 19000/19035/19075 next.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 18430 fails, 18335/18300 in play.
If 18300 fails, 18250/18225 in play.
If 18225 fails, 18130/18065- next.
Zoomed-out View:
Bullish: as long 18050 holds or reclaimed, 19035+ in play.
Bearish: if 18050 fails to hold, 17860/17825/17675- in play.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 18596/18625, 18695, 18790, 18870*, 18925, 19000, 19035/19075*.
Support: 18525/18505, 18470/18430*, 18335, 18300*, 18225*, 18130, 18065/18050*.
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Moved up all flags for early detection of short term trend change
Orange Flag: A close below 18255, daily uptrend is in question.
1st Red Flag: A close below 18050 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 17675 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#YM_F / #DJI Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Despite a good green weekly close, Friday's strong red close inclines me towards a bearish outlook on the daily chart. However, I maintain a cautious bullish bias for the weekly perspective.
Friday's close hovered very close to the 39815 support. If Sunday's open holds this level, the first task for bulls would be to claim 40025 to demonstrate their intent.
If bulls manage to hold 39815 on Sunday and reclaim 40025, but encounter resistance at 40155 and subsequently fail to hold the back test of 39815, we could witness a rapid drop to 39595/39515.
Conversely, if bears hold 40025, similar price action to the downside can be expected if 39815 fails.
It's quite likely that on Sunday, 39815 fails to hold initially. In that case, similar levels around 39595/39515 will be in play.
#YM_F has been on a strong bullish trajectory since last October. The recent pattern consists of one strong green week followed by 2-4 weeks of bidirectional movement, and the week closes above key support. If this pattern is to continue, we may see a deep flush down this week followed by recovery towards the end. Essentially bidirectional move.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 35315/33915 holds, targets remain at 41900/45030+.
🐻 Bearish: Trend determination hinges on when the monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Target: As long as 36750/36602 holds, targets include 39210/41310+ (first target 39210 hit).
🐻 Bearish Target: Trend determination will be made when the weekly trend turns bearish.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 39815 or at least 39425 holds and 40025 is reclaimed, targets include 40520/40830/40950+.
🐻 Bearish: If 39815 fails, targets include 39160/39050/38930-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 39815 holds and 40025 is claimed, 40245/40310 are in play.
Upon breaching 40310, attention turns to 40520/40655.
After claiming 40520, focus shifts to 40830/40950+.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 39815 fails, targets include 39655/39595.
Further failure could lead to targets at 39515/39425.
Continued weakness may bring targets around 39240/39160- into play.
Zoomed-out View:
Bullish: As long as 39425 holds or is reclaimed, targets at 41310 remain in play.
Bearish: If bears hold 40025/40245 and 39815 fails to hold, targets include 39425/39160-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 40025*, 40155, 40245*/40310, 40460/40520*, 40655, 40830/40950*.
Support: 39815, 39655/39595, 39515/39425*, 39240/39160*, 39050/39005*.
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As market moved up, moving flag levels up for early detection of short term trend change as below
Orange Flag: A close below 39425 would cast doubts on the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Closing below 39050 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 38545 on a red day, it could void the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Similar to #YM, the week closed with a fairly good green, but Friday's strong red close appears bearish.
If Friday's downward momentum continues, the likely target would be around 2064/2059.5.
Bulls must defend these levels and quickly push resistance from those levels to end the month in the green.
Key resistance lies at 2138, and a monthly close above could pave the way for more upside in the coming months.
Last week's high was 2132, just shy of 2138, and a strong pullback leads me to believe that as long as 2064/2059 hold, there would be one more attempt to reclaim 2138. Whether that happens this week or next is uncertain.
#RTY_F is known for changing directions quickly; hence, I will stick with my level-to-level plays as mentioned below.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 1867 holds, targets remain at 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Trend determination will be made when the monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 1994/1970 holds, targets include 2052/2108/2461+ (hit 2052 & 2108 targets).
🐻 Bearish: Trend determination will be made when the monthly trend turns bearish.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 2059.5/2055 holds and 2108 is reclaimed, targets include 2130/2138/2152+.
🐻 Bearish: If 2047.8 fails, targets include 2018/2009-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 2086.7 holds and 2108 is reclaimed, 2125/2130/2138 are in play.
Upon claiming 2138, attention turns to 2162/2169.
After claiming 2169, focus shifts to 2176.5/2190.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 2086.7 fails, targets include 2078/2064.
Further failure could lead to targets at 2059.5/2055.
Continued weakness may bring targets around 2047.8/2037 into play.
Zoomed-out View:
Bullish: If 2050/2037 holds, targets at 2138/2169 come into focus.
Bearish: If 2047.8 fails, targets include 2027/2018/2002-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 2101.5/2108, 2125, 2130/2138*, 2152, 2162, 2169.
Support: 2086.7, 2078, 2064, 2059.5/2055*, 2047.8*, 2037, 2031/2027*.
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Moving orange flag level up
Orange Flag: A close below 2047.8 would cast doubts on the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Closing below 2009 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 1985 on a red day, it could void the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#DXY / $USD:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Strong bulls continued their march to claim key resistance levels at 104.295 and 104.415.
The first possible resistance where bears may enter is at 104.715/104.870.
Until the orange flag is triggered by a red day closing below 103.925, the continuation of the bullish move is expected.
A stronger #DXY is likely to pressure #RTY the most.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 104.625, 104.715, 104.870/104.970*, 105.375, 105.590/105.735*
Support: 104.295/104.150, 103.990/103.925*, 103.245/103.172*, 102.765, 102.665/102.600*
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Orange Flag: A close below 103.925 indicates the daily uptrend is in question.
1st Red Flag: A close below 103.172 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 102.665 on a red day, it indicates potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Love your work - always keeping an eye out for your ES levels. Would be interesting to hear your ideas on execution - what setups you look for, how you manage your stops, do you scale in/out. Thanks.
Keep it coming sir, I'm learning