Weekly Charts Reading for 10/28- 11/01
Pressure's On: Bull or Pull?
Due to upcoming extensive travel and other commitments, I won't be able to publish weekly chart reading reports until December.
My availability on X (formerly Twitter) will also be limited during this time.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
How’s last week?
Last week: metals shined, but treasuries, #RTY, and #YM slipped. #ES couldn’t break higher, closing in the red, while #NQ bulls held the line. This week? Decision time.
#NQ
Wednesday dipped below the 20270 bearish level but quickly rebounded.
Bulls pushed up on Thursday and Friday to 20685+, completing a backtest of the July 16 high (where bears had previously driven price down to August low).
Week ended around the starting point – still no clear winner.
#ES
Wednesday closed below 5850, triggering an orange flag.
Held 5823 on Thursday, and Friday completed a backtest of 5893 & 5900 (where orange flag move began).
#RTY
As noted, bulls were weak under 2305. Monday hit 2300.8, and bears took over, pushing down to 2206 for a backtest of Oct 11 – where Oct highs started.
#YM
Hit 43565 last Sunday (43576 high). Monday’s red close triggered an orange flag.
Tuesday’s high retested orange flag level but failed to reclaim, closing below 2nd red flag level and hitting all downside targets.
#SI
Reached first key target of 35 after breaking 32.60 (week of Oct 16). Pullback followed.
#GC
Held 2721 support (2722.1 low), then reached 2768 target, peaking at 2772.6.
#CL
Last week, held the bullish line above 68.40 (low of 68.46) and rallied to 72.34, closing strong in the green—breaking the prior week's bearish streak.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (10/28 – 11/01)
Busy week ahead with key economic reports from Tuesday to Friday.
Thursday also brings the end-of-month candle.
Major tech earnings on deck too—expect some volatility!
#NQ closed slightly bullish, but the rest of the market ended on a bearish note.
Big tech ($GOOG, $MSFT, $AAPL, $AMZN, $META, $AMD) will be crucial in keeping the market from a sharp drop.
Overview:
With #YM triggering the 2nd Red flag, I’ve added green flag levels for #YM.
Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:
Red Flags:
Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.
1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.
2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.
Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):
#ES: 5850 (triggered Oct 23), 5811, 5740
#NQ: 20195, 19860, 19635
#RTY: 2265 (triggered Oct 21), 2240 (triggered Oct 23), 2206
#YM: 43250 (triggered Oct 21), 42935 (triggered Oct 23), 42665 (triggered Oct 24)
Green Flags:
Lime Flag: A green day close above downtrend in question
1st Green Flag: A green day close above short term weekly downtrend trend in question
2nd Green Flag: A green day close above voids the short term weekly downtrend
Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers(on a green day close above these levels) :
#YM: 42745, 43060, 430305
Quick Summary:
#ES bullish above 5876, bearish below 5829
#NQ bullish above 20295, bearish below 20270 (same as last week)
#RTY bullish above 2257, bearish below 2218
#YM bullish above 42780, bearish below 42200
#SI bullish above 33.58, bearish below 33.35
#GC bullish above 2728.7, bearish below 2722
#PL bullish above 1024, bearish below 1014
#CL bullish above 70, bearish below 69.35
Quick Plays:
#ES:
If 5840/37/29 holds, upside targets: 5850*/57*/60*/76*/83*/5893*/5900*/08/15*/19*/24*/36*/42*/48*/56/62*+
If 5829 fails, downside targets: 5823*/16*/11*/06*/5800*/5793*/87*/80*/50*/45*/20*/5693*/85*/70*-
Oct 23 close triggered orange flag. Oct 25 failed to reclaim 5893—until claimed, bear pressure continues.
As long bears hold 5893 & 5823 fails, test of 5780/50/40/20/5685*- likely
If 5893 and 5915 reclaimed, targets shift to 5985/6030.
#NQ:
If 20445/410 holds, targets: 20500/530*/560*/595*/630*/685*/795*/915*/21065*/260*/300*/465*/600*/710/965*+
If 20410 fails, downside levels: 20365/320*/295*/270*/230/195*/20065*/20000*/19940*/900/860*/735*/635*-
Friday close held last week’s bullish levels but with low conviction;
Bigger picture - as long 20295 or at last 20270 holds or reclaimed, 20920*/21175/340*/545/22000+ in play.
#RTY:
If 2218 holds or reclaims, upside: 2233*/48*/57*/61/80*/90*/96*/2305/08*/2311/20*/2332*/46*+
If 2218 fails, downside levels: 2215*/06*/2200*/2194*/90*/83*/72*/52*/37*-
Bulls need daily closes above 2257/61 to target 2290/96/2305+.
If flush to 2200 / 2194 & quick reclaim of 2218 on same day, bulls back in play
If low of last week fails to hold on daily, more down side could bring 2172/52- in play
#YM:
If 42255/200 holds or reclaims, targets: 42510*/690*/745*/780*/935*/980*/44210/290*/425*+
If 43200 fails, downside levels: 42090*/41835*/680*/610*/420*/360*/225*/165*/125*/41000*/40940*-
#DXY:
Bullish move continued for a 4th week;
if 104.030 holds, next target is 104.426; beyond that: 104.570/104.80/105/105.200*+
If 104.030 fails, 103.855/103.460* become support; if breached, bears may push to 103.210/102.915-
Metals:
Silver #SI:
If 33.73/32.65/33.58 holds, targets: 34.155*/34.26*/34.45*/34.50*/34.95*/35.20/35.70*/36.70*/37*/37.60*/39.85*/41.50*/43.5*/44.30*/48.10*/50+
If 33.58 fails, support levels: 33.35*/33.25*/33.05*/32.5*/32.20*/31.85*/31.65*/31.40*/31.375*/31.17*/31*-
Bulls must reclaim 34.50 to maintain upward momentum.
Oct 17th & 18th's lows are key levels for bulls to defend in case of deeper pullbacks to keep 35.70/36.70/39.85/43.5/48.10+ in play else 31.375/31.17/31/30.70*- in play
Gold #GC:
If 2749/2740 holds, targets: 2765*/72*/82*/2800*/18*/42/75*+
If 2740 fails, downside levels: 2732/28.5*/27*/22*/17*/08*/04/2695*/83*/75*/63*/53*
Oct 17th & 18th's lows are key levels for bulls to defend in case of deeper pullbacks if that fails, 2663/53/45/25 in play
Platinum #PL:
If 1028/1024 holds, upside targets: 1038*/1045*/1050*/1056*/58*/1072*/1076*/1095*/1105*/1138*+
If 1024 fails, support levels: 1014*/1005*/1000*/995*/992*/986/983*/80*/974/970*/965*/960*/955*-
Crude Oil #CL:
Bulls taking control with 72.15, 74.35, and 75.80 claimed.
If 70.33/70 holds or reclaims, targets: 72*/72.15*/72.85/74*/74.35*/75/75.50*/75.80*/76.25*/77.35*+
If 70 fails, downside levels: 69.80*/69.35*/68.84*/68.45*/68.30*/67.25/67.05*/66.65*/65.40*/65/63.65*
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar :
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.