Mastering the Trend
How to Stay in the Trade Longer Without Losing Discipline
Due to other commitments, I won't be posting regular weekly chart readings and levels. Instead, I'm sharing an article on mastering trends. I hope you find it helpful.
Quick note: The downtrend remains until last week’s highs are claimed. Key support levels for #ES: 5050/5000/4960 and #NQ: 17385/17350/17110.
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Before we dive into mastering trends, let’s talk about a real-world example of how bias, execution, and level awareness play a role in catching (or missing) a trend. Yesterday’s trade offered a perfect case study—where a long setup worked initially but failed to hold, and a short opportunity was missed. If you haven’t read the full review yet, check it out here.
How to Spot When Price is About to Trend
You’ve probably asked yourself, "How do I know when the market is about to explode into a trend?" It’s the million-dollar question, and while there’s no crystal ball, there are some signs you can use to anticipate a trending move. Here’s how to get ahead of the curve:
1. Watch for Consolidation Near Key Levels
Before a big trend, price often spends time "building energy." If you see the market hugging a major support or resistance level, especially with tight ranges and smaller candles, pay attention. Consolidation near these zones often signals that a breakout (or breakdown) is brewing.
Action Tip: Mark these levels and wait for a decisive 15-minute or hourly candle close above or below to confirm direction.
2. Quick Key Level Claims or Fails
One of the strongest signs that price is about to trend is when it claims or fails key levels decisively. If a 15-minute or hourly candle closes firmly above resistance or below support without hesitation, it signals strength and a likely continuation in that direction.
Action Tip: If price closes above resistance with a strong body, look for continuation long entries and if price closes below support, consider short entries on lower timeframe.
3. Strong Candle Closes Lead the Way
When price starts closing decisively above resistance or below support, it’s a sign the market has picked a direction. Look for candles with solid bodies and minimal wicks against the move—they’re like footprints of big money making its move.
Action Tip: Use 15-minute or hourly candle closes to confirm claims (longs) or failures (shorts) at your key levels. Avoid jumping in on weak, indecisive candles.
4. Volume May Be Invisible, but Momentum Isn’t
You don’t need to check volume indicators to feel the market’s energy. Strong momentum shows up in fast-moving candles, minimal pullbacks, and clean pushes through levels. If the price is slicing through your first level and heading straight for the next one, it’s a sign the trend could have legs.
Action Tip: Stick to your predefined levels and let price action guide you. Don’t chase moves—wait for pullbacks to key levels or decisive candle closes to confirm your entry.
5. Pullbacks Stay Shallow
In trending markets, pullbacks don’t dig deep. Instead, they often pause at the first support (in an uptrend) or resistance (in a downtrend) level. If the price bounces quickly and decisively, it’s a green flag for the trend continuing.
Action Tip: Use shallow pullbacks as opportunities to enter or add to a position, but only after confirmation with a close above or below your level.
6. Rejection of Deeper Levels Confirms Strength
If the price briefly tests a second support or resistance level but rejects it immediately (think of a quick jab and rebound or reject), it often signals the trend isn’t over yet. These quick rejections/recoveries can help you anticipate the next big move.
Action Tip: On 15-minute charts, watch for quick recoveries/rejections from second support/resistance levels. Enter or add only after a clean claim or failure of the level.
7. Strong Follow-Through After Breakouts or Breakdowns
The best trends often follow clean breakouts or breakdowns that don’t look back. If the price breaks or fails a key level and follows through with multiple strong candles, chances are it’s headed for the next marked level.
Action Tip: Enter after the breakout or breakdown is confirmed and keep your initial stop-loss tight (based on your points-based rules). Let the market do the work.
8. No Signs of Reversal
A common mistake traders make (I made one yesterday) is fighting the trend when there’s no real sign of exhaustion. A strong trend resists reversal attempts, even at major levels. If price keeps making higher highs/lows (for an uptrend) or lower highs/lows (for a downtrend), without any clear rejection wicks/tails, or failed supports or claiming resistance, chances are the trend is intact.
Action Tips: Don’t counter-trade unless you see a clear failure pattern (e.g., failed breakout/breakdown, large rejection wick/tails etc.)
If key resistance or support is hit and price barely reacts, it's a sign of trend strength—stay with the dominant direction.
Trailing stops instead of profit-taking too early helps maximize gains in strong trends.
Game Plan for Riding the Momentum
1. Let Your Winners Run: Staying in the Trend
Set Defined Targets but Stay Flexible: Stick to a level-to-level approach for the first two targets. For the third target, if a strong and fast-moving trend is evident, consider being flexible with exiting the trade. Allow the position to run longer while maintaining your trailing stop-loss method.
Candle Closes Define Claims or Fails: Use 15-minute or hourly candle closes to confirm whether a key level is claimed (close above for longs) or failed (close below for shorts). This keeps decisions aligned with objective criteria.
Adjust Stop-Loss Strategically: For intraday trades, once the first target is hit, move your SL to breakeven. When the second target is hit, adjust the SL to below the first target (or above for shorts) by 20-25 points for #NQ and 3-5 points for #ES. For swing trades, use 30-35 points for #NQ and 10-15 points for #ES.
2. Adding to a Winning Position: Building Smartly
Wait for Clear Claims of Key Levels: Add to a position only after a candle close confirms that the next level has been claimed or failed. This minimizes the risk of adding during indecision.
Reassess Risk for Each Addition: Each new position should have its own stop-loss based on your points-based SL rules for intraday or swing trades. Maintain a balanced risk/reward profile at all times.
Scale Gradually: Add incrementally as levels are claimed. Avoid committing the full additional size immediately to control risk.
3. Re-Entering After an Exit: Seizing Second Chances
Use Failed Breakouts or Breakdowns as Opportunities: When a breakout or breakdown fails, wait for a new candle close to reclaim or fail the level. Re-enter with an SL below the low (or above the high) of the candle that confirmed the level claim.
Stay Strict with SL Rules: For re-entries, follow the same points-based SL adjustments as outlined for intraday or swing trades.
4. Handling Fast-Moving Trends: Staying Engaged
Stick to Key Levels Even in Rapid Moves: In fast-moving trends where price doesn’t bounce for re-entries, focus on the next pre-marked key level. Use a candle close below (or above for shorts) to determine new entries.
Trail Aggressively in "Falling Knife" Scenarios: If price moves rapidly with every 15-minute candle, tighten your trailing SL to stay in the trade while protecting profits. As an example, for #NQ, this could mean trailing by 30-35 points intraday or 35-50 points for swings (in high volatility scenarios)
Stay Flexible but Disciplined: Avoid chasing price. Instead, rely on the predefined structure of key levels. If a re-entry opportunity doesn’t present itself cleanly, wait for the next level to act. Do not enter if the risk-to-reward ratio is less than 1:2.
5. Sticking to Level-to-Level Trading: Staying Grounded
Respect Your Pre-Marked Levels: Follow the plan for claiming or failing levels, using candle closes as the decision-making tool.
Exit Gradually: Close partial positions at each pre-defined level to lock in profits while allowing the remaining position to ride the trend.
Document and Refine: Maintain a trading journal to evaluate decisions about re-entries and adding to runners. Use these insights to improve future strategies.
Understanding the "Hold Forever" Temptation
Ever find yourself thinking, "Forget my plan, I’ll just ride this wave forever!" when the market's flying in one direction? You’re not alone. Strong trends can tempt anyone into ditching their disciplined approach for a "hold forever" — whether long in a strong uptrend or short in a sharp downtrend. The fear of missing out on an even bigger move can cloud judgment and lead to holding trades beyond logical exit points. However, disciplined level-to-level trading remains a more sustainable and actionable strategy for capturing profits.
Here’s why sticking to your structured trading plan beats the FOMO every time:
Emotions Don’t Pay the Bills: The "buy and hold" temptation often comes from fear of missing out rather than solid reasoning. Riding the wave blindly can lead to holding through pullbacks or getting stuck in reversals.
Key Levels Are Your GPS: Without clear levels guiding your entries and exits, you’re flying blind. A level-to-level approach ensures every move is backed by logic, not guesswork.
Flexibility Wins Over Fixation: Markets shift. What seems like a strong trend now can fade in a flash. With a plan, you can adjust, take profits, or re-enter strategically without panic.
So, while it’s fun to dream about catching the entire move, disciplined trading keeps you in the game longer—and that’s where the real wins are.
Every trend tells a story. The key is to read it objectively, without bias. Many traders hesitate to flip bias when a level fails—something I experienced firsthand in this Friday, Feb 21st, 2025 session. Price never reclaimed 22050, yet I hesitated to take the short. Recognizing these hesitations in real time is critical for mastering trends.
If you’re struggling with hesitation or missed trend trades, reviewing past mistakes like this trade review can be a helpful in refining execution.