Weekly Charts Reading for 9/30- 10/04

Chop or Pop?

Sep 29, 2024

Due to a booming lack of subscriber growth, likes, and reposts on Substack (plus my limited time), I’ve decided to shorten the newsletter.
But it’s still packed with powerful, actionable, and accurate trading insights!
Of course, after a year, I’ve learned my belief in my content is clearly irrelevant—judging by the stunning low number of subscribers and engagement I get. 😃

Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

#ES and #NQ held bullish levels, while #RTY & #YM offered bi-directional plays.

Last week:

✅ #ES: Bullish above 5730. Long play/targets as long as 5750/5745 holds. Last week’s low: 5745.25!
✅ #NQ: Bullish above 19935. Long play/targets as long as 20000/19965 holds. Last week’s low: 19955!
✅ #RTY: Bearish below 2234. Short play/targets as long as 2264/2278 fails to hold. Last week’s high: 2268.1 and 2216.7 low!
✅#YM: Bullish above 42315, bearish below 42250. Last week’s low: 42206, high: 43005!

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (9/30 – 10/04)

Monday prints new monthly candles.
Monday afternoon: Fed Chair speaks, adding to the volatility.
Likely increased volatility Monday due to both EOM and J Powell's participation in discussion.
Rest of the week brings usual economic reports and the start of earnings season—more reason for volatility.
Next week, expecting opportunities for bi-directional plays for all 4 indices
Bearish levels are near Thursday/Friday lows.
Friday showed bullish weakness, similar to Sept 20. Until those levels are reclaimed quickly, I'll be taking quick profits level to level on long trades.
Bulls need to reclaim key levels (in Quick Play section), ideally overnight Sunday, or bears gain confidence.
If #ES fails to hold Sept 26 low, key levels for bulls to defend: 5758/5730/5705*/5690*—especially 5711/05/5690* to keep Sept 16 bulls in play.
If #NQ fails to hold Sept 26 low, key levels: 20095/20065*/20030*/19965—especially 20065/030 to keep 20600+ in play.
If #RTY fails to hold Sept 26 low, key levels: 2211/2203*/2198/2183*—especially 2211/2203 to keep Sept 16 bulls in play.

Overview:

Week closed green with #ES and #YM hitting new ATHs, but no significant move from the previous week. Hence keeping flag levels the same.
On Sept 19th, #ES, #NQ, and #RTY triggered their 2nd Green Flags. Now, bulls need to defend the lows from Sept 18th and 19th in case of a deeper pullback.
Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:
- Red Flags:
  - Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.
  - 1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.
  - 2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.
- Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):
  - #ES: 5690 (Orange), 5597 (1st Red), 5540 (2nd Red)
  - #NQ: 19635 (Orange), 19400 (1st Red), 19095 (2nd Red)
  - #RTY: 2234 (Orange), 2207 (1st Red), 2174 (2nd Red)
  - #YM: 41905 (Orange), 41375 (1st Red), 41125 (2nd Red)

Quick Summary:

#ES: Bullish above 5805, bearish below 5778
#NQ: Bullish above 20290, bearish below 20180
#RTY: Bullish above 2234, bearish below 2228
#YM: Bullish above 42530, bearish below 42465
#SI: Bullish above 31.15, bearish below 30.95
#GC: Bullish above 2674, bearish below 2668
#PL: Bullish above 1008, bearish below 1001
#CL: Bullish above 67.50, bearish below 67

Quick Plays:

#ES:
As long as 5782/78 holds and 5792/5805 reclaimed:
5816*/26*/39*/44/52/(63*)/78/86/94/(5902*)/5930+ in play

If 5778 fails:
5765*/(5758/55*)/45*/(33/30*)/06*/(5690*)/(75*/70*)/54/43- in play.
#NQ:
As long as 20180 holds and 20290/20390 reclaimed: 20360/400*/440*/500*/525/(535*)/600*/(685*)/740/(800*)/870*/(920*)/21050*+ in play

If 20180 fails:
20140*/095/(065/030**) /19965/930*/19000/(860**)/720*/680*/(650/630*)/580*- in play.
#RTY:
As long as 2238/34 holds and 2252/2256 reclaimed: 2263/67*/(77*)/86*/93*/(2305*)/20*/(2332*)/(46*)/63/(73*)/(2403*)/(28*)+ in play

If 2234 fails:
(2234*)/(27*)/23*/17*/2211/(2207/03)/2198*/88/(83*/74)- in play.
#YM:
As long as 42590/42530 holds and 42775 reclaimed:
42915*/43000*/ 42550/615*/700*/825/980*/43040*/175*/320*/430*/720*+ in play

If 42530 fails: (42490*)/445*/375*/(42250*)/150*/010/(41950*/905*)/840/795*/640*/425/(400*/375*)- in play.
#DXY:
As long as bears defend 100.675/100.970 or 101.035:
100.225/99.960*/99.750*/99.575*- in play

If 101.035 reclaimed:
101.160/101.235/101.345/101.370*+ in play.
#SI (Silver):
If 31.80 holds and 31.96 reclaimed: 32.30/(32.65*)/32.90/33.13/33.54/33.75/34.15/34.60/35+ in play

If 31 fails:
30.65/30.40*/30.20*/29.40/29/28.30/28- in play.

Bulls weak < 32.90; must hold 31 on daily to keep 32.65/32.90/34/35+ in play. Claiming 32.60 on daily/weekly is key. If reclaimed, 35/35.70 next big hurdle.
#GC (Gold):
If 2674 holds and 2690 reclaimed:
2694/96*/2703/2717/33/38*/50*/68*+ in play

If 2668 fails:
2658/51/46*/40/27*/10*/2585*/72*- in play.

Bulls weak < 2694. Red close below 2677 likely brings more chop and downside.
#PL (Platinum):
If 1013 or 1010 holds and 1023/1027 reclaimed:
1031/1037/1045*/1050*/1056*+ in play

If 1000 fails:
991*/988*/985/980*/974*/961*- in play.

Bulls weak < 1023. Monthly close above 1010 could refocus bulls on >1105.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

[Bonus]

Crude Oil

#CL:
Bouncing near monthly support at 66.

If 68.10/67.50 holds:
69.2/70/71.60/72*/73.65/74.45*+ in play

If 67.50 fails:
66.8/66.05/65.67/65.25/64.35- in play.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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