Weekly Charts Reading for 9/23- 9/27

Hold the Line

Sep 22, 2024

Due to a booming lack of subscriber growth, likes, and reposts on Substack (plus my limited time), I’ve decided to shorten the newsletter.
But it’s still packed with powerful, actionable, and accurate trading insights!
Of course, after a year, I’ve learned my belief in my content is clearly irrelevant—judging by the stunning low number of subscribers and engagement I get. 😃

Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

All #ES, #NQ, #RTY, and #YM held bullish levels and closed the week in the green.
Check out my post on X to see what worked from last week's newsletter and what didn't.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (9/23 – 9/27)

Last week, #ES, #NQ, and #RTY bulls took over, but they now need to defend Thursday/Wednesday's lows in any deeper pullback.
Upcoming Wednesday looks quieter on the events calendar—no major economic reports.
Bulls’ main job next week: protect last week’s gains by either:
1. Quickly reclaiming Friday’s highs and pushing higher to safe distance
2. So in case of deeper pullback (even if it’s a rug pull), Thursday or Wednesday's lows can be defended
As long as price holds or reclaims the “bullish above” levels below, the bullish bias remains intact.
I’ll stick to the identified quick play levels and the bullish/bearish above/below levels as my guide.
Note: The “bullish above” levels are below last week's close. But bulls need to reclaim Friday's highs to show commitment. Until then, I'll stay cautious and take profits level by level.
Bears now have a chance to push prices lower, but no strong conviction yet. If they claim the bearish below levels, the bias shifts.
I've marked Red Flag levels to signal potential trend changes. Orange flag levels are set closer than usual to help adjust the bias faster. Downside: sometimes these orange flags get faked out when the next day closes strong green (especially above a previous red day).

Overview:

On Sept 19th, #ES, #NQ, and #RTY triggered their 2nd Green Flags. Now, bulls need to defend the lows from Sept 18th and 19th in case of a deeper pullback.
Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:
- Red Flags:
  - Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.
  - 1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.
  - 2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.
- Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):
  - #ES: 5690 (Orange), 5597 (1st Red), 5540 (2nd Red)
  - #NQ: 19635 (Orange), 19400 (1st Red), 19095 (2nd Red)
  - #RTY: 2234 (Orange), 2207 (1st Red), 2174 (2nd Red)
  - #YM: 41905 (Orange), 41375 (1st Red), 41125 (2nd Red)

Quick Summary:

#ES: Bullish above 5730, bearish below 5705
#NQ: Bullish above 19935, bearish below 19840
#RTY: Bullish above 2234, bearish below 2234
#YM: Bullish above 42315, bearish below 42250

Quick Plays:

#ES: As long as 5750/45 holds and 5764/5776 are reclaimed, targets are 5790*/96/(5805*)/18/27*/36*/52/(63*)/86/(5902*)+.
If 5730 fails, watch for 5705*/(5690*)/75*/54/43/27*/(5597*)/(5558*)/(5540*)-.
#NQ: If 20000/19965 holds and 20035/20085 are reclaimed, targets are (20165*)/195*/300*/370/415*/535*/(600*)/(685*)/(800*)/870*/(920*)/21050*+.
If 19935 fails, levels to watch are 19885/(840**)/720*/680*/(650/630*)/590*/(560*)/500*/470*/(400*)-.
#RTY: As long as 2252/42 holds and 2264/2278 are reclaimed, targets are (2295*)/2305*/(2320*)/32*/(2346*)/63/(2373*)/(2403*)/(2428*)+.
If 2242 fails, watch for (2234*)/31/27/22*/17*/(2211/07**)/2198*/88/(83*/74**)-.
#YM: If 42385/42315 holds and 42290 is reclaimed, targets are 42550/615*/700*/825/980*/43040*/175*/320*/430*/720*+.
If 42315 fails, watch for (42250*)/010/(41950/905*)/795*/640*/425/(400*/375*)/260/(170*/125**)-.
#DXY: Bears must defend 100.945/101.035 and quickly claim 100.550 to continue down to 100.275/99.960*/99.750*/99.575*.
If 101.035 is reclaimed, targets are 101.180/101.235/101.345/101.370*+.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

[Bonus]

Metals:

Silver #SI: Bullish above 30.40, bearish below 30.20. Bulls need to hold/reclaim 31 to keep 32.60/32.90 in play. A daily/weekly close above 32.60 is key for 35/35.70. If 30.20 fails, expect 29/28.30/28- in play.
Gold #GC: Bulls need to defend 2609, 2585, and 2572 to keep last week's breakout intact. A red close below 2572 could lead to more chop and downside. As long as 2635/2627 holds, targets are 2665/2682/2702/2738+.
Platinum #PL: Bulls are weak until 1001 or at least 991 is reclaimed. Bullish hopes stay alive if 978/971.5 holds. If 968 fails, bears gain strength, targeting 958/945/940-. If 978/971 holds, a retest of 990/991 is likely, and if 991 reclaimed, targets are 1001/1008/1010/1015.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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