Weekly Charts Reading for 9/16- 9/20
Cruising with Caution!
This week's newsletter is short due to limited time, mainly focusing on the Week Ahead section.
Due to the contract rollover affecting TOS charts, my usual weekly chart analysis *may* not be as accurate this time.
For support levels on #ES, #NQ, and #RTY below current levels, check last week's newsletter, or if needed, refer to the newsletters from Aug 12th or Aug 5th.
Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
How’s last week?
Expected relief rally if Friday's low held for #ES, #NQ, and #RTY.
#ES and #NQ held Friday’s low perfectly, triggering the relief rally.
#RTY failed to hold last Friday's low but tested the must-hold level from the week of Aug 12.
Impressive bounce followed.
#YM nearly hit the Lime flag level early in the week, rejected and then flushed to key support at 40115 (40034 low).
As expected when 40115 reclaimed quickly, bounced strongly.
#DXY: Called it! Said "If 101.345 claimed, 101.735+ in play."
Hit a high of 101.839 before bears defended 101.800 and pushed down to the first target of 100.900 (100.883 low).
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Quick update: It seems reaching 500 subscribers might take a bit longer than I hoped. But I'm not giving up just yet. I'll keep publishing, though I might take more breaks along the way. 😀
Big thanks to all of you who've been cheering me on. Your support means a lot!
Thanks, all!
Week Ahead (9/16 – 9/20)
Bears losing control, step by step.
#ES and #NQ still need to trigger 2nd Green flag levels (adjusted for contract rollover).
With FOMC on Wednesday, expect a slow grind to resistance levels with quick flushes until the event.
Ideally, bulls want to claim these key levels with a strong close, then defend the day's low on any pullbacks, especially if levels are claimed before FOMC.
After five green days in a row, #ES, #NQ, and #RTY are nearing key resistance levels.
Caution on the upside is wise.
Considering Monday's contract rollover, two likely scenarios:
Gap up, pull back to fill the gap, hold support, and bounce to 2nd Green flag levels.
Gap up, hold bullish, and continue to 2nd Green flag levels.
Watching bullish-above and bearish-below levels for quick plays, as volatility could bring wider swings, especially post-FOMC.
If intraday support levels hold, the bullish bias remains.
For deeper pullbacks, key levels bulls must defend:
#NQ: Sept 11 open/low.
#ES: Sept 11/12 open/low.
#RTY: Sept 13 holds the key.
Overview:
#ES, #NQ, and #RTY bears are losing control.
Bulls still need to trigger 2nd Green flags by closing above key levels (adjusted for contract rollover):
#ES: 5730
#NQ: 19925
#RTY: 2250
#YM Update:
Bulls took over on Friday. Now, they need to defend Sept 12-13 lows in case of a deeper pullback.
Daily Timeframe Flags:
Orange Flag: Red day close below uptrend in question.
1st Red Flag: Red day close below short-term weekly uptrend in question
2nd Red Flag: Red day close below voids short-term weekly uptrend.
Orange, 1st Red and 2nd Red flags triggers when red day closes below:
#YM: 41170, 41115, 40700
Quick Summary:
#ES: Bullish above 5665, bearish below 5654
#NQ: Bullish above 19590, bearish below 19400
#RTY: Bullish above 2171, bearish below 2156
#YM: Bullish above 41550, bearish below 41500
Quick Plays:
#ES: As long as 5673/65 holds or is reclaimed, targets are 5693/98*/5719*/29*/42*/60/67*/81*+. If 5654 fails, 5643/38/28*/17*/10/5600- in play.
#NQ: If 19690/635 holds or is reclaimed, targets are 19800/850/925*/20080/165*/225*/335/415*+. If 19590 fails, 19500/470*/400/350*/330/200*- in play.
#RTY: As long as 2198/93 or 2171 holds or is reclaimed, targets are 2207/19/23*/34*/45*/50*/57/70*+. If 2156 fails, 2146/38/32*/27/21*/09*- in play.
#YM: As long as 41750/625 or 41550 holds or is reclaimed, targets are 41940/4200*/070*/130*/180/350*/500/725+. If 41500 fails, 41400*/320*/205/120/065/015*/40980- in play.
#DXY: Bears must hold 101.200 or, at worst, 101.370 and quickly claim 100.845 to continue down to 100.620/550. A close below 100.550 puts 100.280 in play. If 101.370 is claimed, 101.625/101.790+ in play.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
[Charting Insight ]
Variation of failed breakdown or breakout:
Failed Breakdown: Key level fails to hold (red candle closes below) but is quickly followed by a green candle closing above the level, especially above the high of the red candle. Likely a fake breakdown.
Failed Breakout: Key level is claimed (green candle closes above) but is quickly followed by a red candle closing below, especially below the low of the green candle. Likely a fake breakout.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
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