Weekly Charts Reading for 9/09- 9/13

Beardance or Bullrelief?

Sep 08, 2024

This week's newsletter is short due to limited time, mainly focusing on the Week Ahead section.

For support levels on #ES, #NQ, and #RTY below current levels, check last week's newsletter, or if needed, refer to the newsletters from Aug 12th or Aug 5th.

Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

Expected down days, but not as big of a drop as we saw earlier.
Staying flexible paid off when bearish levels quickly failed—opened up chances for short trades.
As I wrote last week: "If bears push below 101.245 at 101.920, expect a back test of 100.900/100.560." Last week's high: 101.917, low: 101.583—pretty precise, right? 🎯

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (9/09 – 9/13)

Bears still in control, no surprise there.
If Friday's lows hold, we might see a relief rally for #ES, #NQ, and #RTY.
#YM needs to bounce from 40200/115 for a stronger rally.
What are the upside targets? I’ve outlined key levels on daily, 4hr, and hourly charts below.
If bears keep dominating, expect bigger pain, with initial downside targets under "Quick Plays" and "Downside" sections.
For #NQ, holding 18065 is key—if not, Aug 5th lows likely come into play.
Quick recovery to 18980 would bring some relief to #NQ bulls.
For #ES and #RTY, holding Aug 12th week's lows is important—if they break, new lows below Aug 5th are possible.

Quick Summary:

Bears still in control,
In trend change, bears lose control step by step.
That’s why I use my 3-flag system.
- For Green Flags:
  - Lime Flag: Green day close above, daily downtrend in question
  - 1st Green Flag: Green day close above, short term weekly trend in question.
  - 2nd Green Flag: Green day close voids short-term weekly downtrend.

Daily Timeframe:

Lime, 1st Green and 2nd Green flags triggers when green day closes above:

#ES: 5539, 5580, 5665
#NQ: 18980, 19180, 19690
#RTY: 2150, 2174, 2227
#YM: 41080, 41170, 41260

Flags may move down if price fails to hold key support levels.

4-Hour Timeframe (Extended hours included):

Lime Flag: 4hr close above downtrend in question.
1st Green Flag: 4hr close above, short-term daily trend in question
2nd Green Flag: 4hr close voids short-term daily downtrend.

Lime, 1st Green and 2nd Green flags triggers when green 4hr closes above:

#ES: 5439, 5475, 5539
#NQ: 18545, 18790, 18980
#RTY: 2109, 2136, 2150
#YM: 40535, 40855, 41080

Hourly Timeframe (Extended hours included):

Lime Flag: Hourly close above downtrend in question.
1st Green Flag: Hourly close above short-term 4hr trend in question.
2nd Green Flag: Hourly close voids short-term 4hr downtrend.

Lime, 1st Green and 2nd Green flags triggers when green Hourly closes above:

#ES: 5416, 5430, 5439
#NQ: 18445, 18515, 18545
#RTY: 2098, 2104, 2109
#YM: 40425, 40480, 40535

Quick Summary:

#ES: Bullish above 5540, bearish below 5394.
#NQ: Bullish above 18980, bearish below 18355.
#RTY: Bullish above 2151, bearish below 2080.5.
#YM: Bullish above 41080, bearish below 40115.

If we get a relief bounce, it's likely between these levels.

Quick Plays:

#ES: As long as 5394 holds and 5439 is reclaimed, targets are 5475/5516/5539+. If 5394 fails, look for 5385/5370/5365*/5345*/5320/5300-.
#NQ: As long as 18355 holds and 18545 is reclaimed, targets are 18745/18790*/18980+. If 18355 fails, look for 18155/18065/17870*/1735*-.
#RTY: As long as 2085.5/2080.5 holds and 2098 is reclaimed, targets are 2109/2114*/2126*/2136*/2150+. If 2080.5 fails, look for 2073/2063*/2057/2046*-.
#YM: As long as 40200/40160 holds or is reclaimed, targets are 41080/41170/41260/41420/41520+. If 40115 fails, look for 40080*/39890/39785*/39485*/39345*-.

#DXY:

Bears must hold 101.345 to move down to 100.900 and 100.620/100.550.
Bears need a daily close below 100.550 or 100.620 to push toward 100.275/99.960.
If 101.345 is reclaimed, 101.735+ is in play.

Downside Scenarios:

#ES: If 5394 fails before claiming 5536 and rejects at 5575 or 5500 on the back test, 5365/5300/5265- likely in play.
#NQ: If 18355 fails before claiming 18980 and rejects at 18745 or 18790 on the back test, 18155/18065/17870*- in play.
#RTY: If 2080.5 fails before claiming 2151 and rejects at 2126 or 2136 on the back test, 2063*/2046*/2032*- likely in play.
#YM: If 40265 fails before claiming 41080 and rejects at 40700 or 40855 on the back test, 40160/40115*/39785*/39485*- likely in play.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

TradersNvestor's Actionable Insights

Discussion about this post