Weekly Charts Reading for 9/03- 9/06

Breakout or Chillout?

Sep 02, 2024

Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

As expected, #ES and #YM closed bullish, while #NQ and #RTY ended in the red.
#ES struggled all week, failing to break the key 5665 resistance and staying range-bound.
#NQ couldn't even reach 19915 before Monday’s open and lost 19590. Bears kept control until Thursday’s bounce.
#YM showed strong bullish momentum despite a quick dip on Wednesday precisely holding my last support level.
#RTY chopped around critical levels but recovered well above the expected downside target.
#DXY bulls held firm at the monthly support as identified last week and pushed above the bear's key level of 101.635.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (9/03 – 9/06)

Next week is busy with the usual economic reports, with Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday likely to see the most volatility.
Note: When I mention volatility, I’m referring to the maximum daily price swings with significant fluctuations, not the VIX index.
If #ES claims 5665 and #NQ claims 19850 on the daily chart, expect breakout action.
Bulls need to defend the Aug 30th & 29th lows for #ES, #NQ, #RTY, and #YM.

Quick Summary:

#ES: Bullish above 5609, bearish below 5590
#NQ: Bullish above 19445, bearish below 19370
#RTY: Bullish above 2203/2193.5, bearish below 2186
#YM: Bullish above 41400/41340, bearish below 41230

Quick Plays:

#ES:
- If 5609 holds and 5665 is reclaimed, targets are 5682*/5716*/24/40*+
- If 5590 fails, expect 5580*/78*/65*/57*/40/35*/23*- in play.
#NQ:
- If 19445 holds and 19850 is reclaimed, targets are 19980*/20035*/085*/165*/290*/595*+
- If 19370 fails, expect 19290/215*/145/100*/035*/19000*- in play.
#RTY:
- If 2203/2193.5 holds or is reclaimed, targets are 2235/49*/73/78*/83*/2305*/22*+
- If 2185 fails, expect 2170*/61.5*/50/44.5*/37*/24*- in play.
#YM:
- If 41400/41340 holds and 41675 is reclaimed, targets are 41780/950*/42060/170*/405*/750*+
- If 41230 fails, expect 41145*/055/915*/40815/700*/- in play.
#DXY: Bulls need to hold 101.245 to move toward 102.010 or 102.400.
- If bears push down below 101.245 at 101.920, expect a back test of 100.900/100.560.
- A red day close below 100.890 could lead to new lows.

On the Downside:

If #ES fails to hold 5590 before claiming 5665 and rejects 5609 on a back test, 5565/40- likely in play.
If #NQ fails to hold 19370 before claiming 19850 and rejects 19445 on a back test, 19215/145/100*- likely in play.
If #RTY fails to hold 2185 before claiming 2235 and rejects 2193.5 on a back test, 2161.5/50- likely in play.
If #YM fails to hold 41230 before claiming 41675 and rejects 41340 on a back test, 40955*/915*- likely in play.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐂

Analysis:

Slightly green week close, keeping a bullish bias with caution.
Caution remains until 5665 is claimed.
If 5665 is claimed on the daily, the next breakout leg could target 5775/5805/5880+.
As long as 5455 holds, 5880*/5965/6110*/6230*+ are in play.
Downside: Key support levels are 5630, 5612/09*, 5590*, 5535*, and 5480/65*.
Upside: Key resistance levels are 5665*, 5682, 5716/22, 5740, and 5775.
Bulls maintain momentum above 5609.
Bears strengthen below 5590, especially with a red day close under 5590.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus (first target hit Jul 5th)
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 5435 or at last 5380 holds/reclaimed, 5705/5805/80* in play (first monthly target of 5705 hit & 5380 reclaimed 5800 back in play)
🐻 Bearish: will determine when weekly trend turns bearish

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 5609 holds and 5665 reclaimed, 5682*/5716*/40*/75*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5590 fails, 5580*/78*/65*/57*/40/35*/23*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 5660*, 5665*, 5672, 5682*, 5704, (5716*), 5722, 5731*, (5740*), 5747, 5760, (5775*), 5785, 5793, (5805*), 5813, 5825*, 5850*, (5880*), 5904, 5920*, 5943, (5962*), 6065*
Support: 5652, 5639, 5630*/25*, (5612/09*), 5603*, (5594*/90*), 5580, 5570*, (5570/65*), 5557*/52*, (5542/35*), 5527*, 5516, (5500*), 5491/85*, (5476/72*), 5465*/60*, 5453*, (5442/38*), 5432, 5415*, 5409*, 5397*, 5390, 5383*, (5371*/68*), 5362, 5350*, (5343/38*), (5330*/20*)

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (3-5 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for long plays: 5630, 5612/09*, 5590*, 5535* and 5480/65*

Short Trades:

On lower time frames, if bears defend the price or the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (3-5 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.

Levels to consider for short plays: 5665*, 5682, 5716/22, 5740 and 5775

Red Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

As market moved up, moving flag levels up for early detection of short term trend change as below

Orange Flag: A close below 5598, daily uptrend is in question
1st Red Flag: A close below 5565 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 5455 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Analysis:

Closed the week in some red but still maintaining a bullish bias.
Adding caution to bullish bias until 19850 is claimed.
If 19850 is claimed on the daily, the next breakout could target 20595/20640/21000+ with intermediate key resistance at 19985/20085.
Above 18925/18790, the breakout from the Aug 12 week remains in play.
A close below 18925 means the breakout failed.
As long as 18925/18790 holds or is reclaimed, 21375/22640*+ are in play.
Downside: Key support levels are 19445*/19370*, 19215, 19145/19100*, and 19035.
Upside: Key resistance levels are 19695, 19850*, 19880/19985*, and 20025/2085*.
Bulls keep momentum above 19445.
Bears strengthen below 19370, especially with a red day close under 19370.
Stick to trading level by level as usual.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 in play (hit 20320 on June 20th)
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 19245 holds or reclaimed, 20705*/820/21680* in play (hit all monthly targets & 20820 back in play)
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long as 19750 defended by bears, 18245*/160/045*/17865/465* in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 19445 holds and 19850 reclaimed, 19980*/20035*/085*/165*/290*/595*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 19370 fails, 19290/215*/145/100*/035*/19000*- in play.

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 19635, 19695*, 19790, (19850*), 19880, 19920*, 19985*, 20035, (20085*), (20165*), 20215*, 20260, 20290*, 20335, (20370*), 20400, 20455*, 20525*, 20565, (20600*), 20635*, 20655*, (20685*), 20745, (20800*), 20890*/920*, (20975*), 21005, 21045, 21095*, 21125, 21160/190*, (21240*), 21330*, (21375*), (21680*)

Support: 19590/565*, 19525, (19465/445*), 19405*, 19360, 19335/315*, 19225, 19165*, (19100*), 19030*, 18980*, (18925*), 18815, 18790*, 18745*, 18710, (18650*/625), 18590*, (18550/520*), 18470*, 18430, 18405*, (18380*), 18320*, 18240*, 18205, 18190*, (18155*), 18120, 18065*, 17995*, 17940, 17880, (17855/835*), 17745*/720*, (17535*), 17465*/430*, 17380, (17350*), 17315, 17275, 17220, (17180*), 17150, (17110*), 17000*, 16940

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:
1. On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (10-30 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
  - Levels to consider for long plays: 19445*/370*, 19215, 19145/100*, 19035

Short Trades:
On lower time frames, if bears defend the price or goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (10-30 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for short plays: 19695, 19850*, 19880/985* and 20025/85*

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moved down Lime flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 18980 daily downtrend is in question (triggered on Aug 13th)
1st Green Flag: A close above 19985 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 20600 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Analysis:

Closed the week slightly in the red but still keeping a bullish bias.
Adding caution until 2250 or at least 2235 is claimed on the daily.
Friday's close on Aug 23rd triggered the first green flag.
Bulls must defend the Aug 23rd low during any deeper pullback.
Ideally, bulls hold above 2210/2203 and push toward 2235/2250 early in the week.
Downside: Key support levels are 2210/2203*, 2193.5, 2185*, and 2170/64.5*.
Upside: Key resistance levels are 2226/2235, 2250*, 2273*/2283*, and 2322*.
Bulls maintain momentum above 2203/2193.5.
Bears strengthen below 2186, especially with a red day close under 2185.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 2144 holds or reclaimed 2210/2247/2300+ in play (hit all monthly targets)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2272/78, 2068/2040/2006.5- in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long as 2203/2193.5 holds or reclaimed, 2235/49*/73/78*/83*/2305*/22*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2185 fails, 2170*/61.5*/50/44.5*/37*/24*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 2226, (2235*), 2250*, 2256, 2261, (2273*/78*), (2283/86*), 2291, 2298, 2300*, 2305*, 2311, (2322*), 2332/35*, (2346*), 2360, 2364*, 2373*, (2378*), 2386.5*, 2405, (2413*), (2424*)
Support: 2218, 2209*, 2203*, (2193.5*), 2187, 2176*, 2170, 2164.5*, 2158/55, 2150, 2144.5*, 2137/33, 2128, 2124*, 2112*, 2091*, (2087/81*), 2074*/70*, (2063*), 2057*, (2042/35*), (2026*), 2020, 2015*, (2006*), 2000.5, 1998*, (1992*), (1983/78*), (1964*), (1955*), (1941*)

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moving down flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 2126, daily downtrend is in question (triggered Aug 15)
1st Green Flag: A close above 2200 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question. (triggered Aug 23rd)
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 2286 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

Trend continuation pattern. Quick visual.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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