Weekly Charts Reading for 8/26- 8/30

Rotate or Reload?

Aug 25, 2024

Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

As expected, a bullish close across the market.
All four index futures—#ES, #NQ, #RTY, and #YM—held key supports early and closed the week in the green.
Thursday offered short opportunities, but bulls defended weekly supports and reversed direction on Friday, giving two-way trading opportunities.
#RTY continued to provide the best bi-directional trades last week.
As predicted, #RTY and #YM had the most upside, while #ES and #NQ approached key resistance.
Bears kept pushing #DXY lower, closing the week in the red near monthly support at 100.615.
Last week delivered big swings and buy-the-dip opportunities, including for #RTY.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (8/26 – 8/30)

Next week is busy with usual economic reports. Expect the most volatility on Thursday and Friday.
Until Thursday’s highs are reclaimed by #ES and #NQ bulls, expect range-bound action between Friday’s lows and Thursday’s highs.
Bulls need to defend Aug 22-23 lows for #ES, #NQ, #RTY, and #YM.

Quick Summary:

#ES: Bullish above 5603, bearish below 5598.
#NQ: Bullish above 19680, bearish below 19590.
#RTY: Bullish above 2170/2164.5, bearish below 2144.5.
#YM: Bullish above 41055/40915, bearish below 40815.

Quick Plays:

#ES: If 5632/5620 or 5603 holds and 5665 is reclaimed, targets are 5682*/5716*/24/40*+. If 5603 fails, expect 5598*/83*/73*/57*/35*5500- in play.
#NQ: If 19680 or 19590 holds and 20025 is reclaimed, targets are 20085*/165*/215/290*/370*/600*+. If 19590 fails, expect 19540*/445*/19405/315/165*/100*- in play.
#RTY: If 2221/2213 or at least 2198 holds or is reclaimed, targets are 2236/73/78*/83*/2305*/22*+. If 2198 fails, expect 2176*/70/64.5*/44.5*/37*/24*- in play.
#YM: If 41145/41055 or 40915 holds, targets are 41305*/395*/430/545*/675*+. If 40915 fails, expect 40815/700*/565*/545*/390*/245/160*- in play.
#DXY: Bears ideally hold 101.460 or at least 101.520 or 101.635, targeting moves down to 100.675, 100.550, 100.275, and 99.960. If 101.635 is reclaimed, more upside to 101.900, 102.09+ is likely.

On the Downside:

If #ES fails to hold 5583 before hitting 5716, expect 5500 in play.
If #NQ moves below 19590, then 19540, and rejects 19590 on a back test, expect 19100 in play.
If #RTY fails to hold 2144.5 before hitting 2286, expect 2087 in play.
If #YM fails to hold 40700 before hitting 41545, expect 40200 in play.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐂

Analysis:

Week closed in green. Keeping bullish bias.
Adding caution to bullish bias until 5665 is claimed.
Quick drop below 5598 to around 5588, followed by reclaiming 5598 the same day, is bullish.
As long as 5455 holds, targets are 5880*/5965/6110*/6230*+.
Downside: Key support levels are 5620, 5598*, 5483/65*, and 5455*.
Upside: Key resistance levels are 5682, 5716/22, 5740, and 5775.
Above 5603, bulls maintain momentum.
Below 5598, especially with a red day close, bulls enter the pain zone.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus (first target hit Jul 5th)
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 5435 or at last 5380 holds/reclaimed, 5705/5800 in play (first monthly target of 5705 hit & 5380 reclaimed 5800 back in play)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 5608/38, 5300*/5250*/35/5200*/5188*- in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 5632/5620 or 5603 holds and 5665 reclaimed, 5682*/5716*/24/40*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5603 fails, 5598*/83*/73*/57*/35*5500- in play.

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 5656*, (5664*/68*), 5682*, 5704, (5716*), 5722, 5731*, (5740*), 5747, 5760, (5775*), 5785, 5793, (5805*), 5813, 5825*, 5850*, (5880*), 5904, 5920*, 5943, (5962*), 6065*
Support: 5643, (5637/32*), 5623/20*, 5609, (5603*), 5598*, 5583, (5573*), 5567, 5557*/52*, (5542/35*), 5527*, 5516, (5500*), 5491/85*, (5476/72*), 5465*/60*, 5453*, (5442/38*), 5432, 5415*, 5409*, 5397*, 5390, 5383*, (5371*/68*), 5362, 5350*, (5343/38*), (5330*/20*)

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (3-5 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for long plays: 5598, 5583, 5565 and 5455

Short Trades:

On lower time frames, if bears defend the price or the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (3-5 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.

Levels to consider for short plays: 5682, 5716/22, 5740 and 5775/80*

Red Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

As market moved up, moving flag levels up for early detection of short term trend change as below

Orange Flag: A close below 5598, daily uptrend is in question
1st Red Flag: A close below 5565 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 5455 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Analysis:

Week closed in some green, maintaining a bullish bias.
Adding caution until 20025 is claimed.
Quick drop below 19590 to around 19565, followed by reclaiming 19590 the same day, is bullish.
Above 18925/18790, the breakout from the week before last remains in play.
Close below 18925 means the breakout failed.
As long as 18925/18790 holds or is reclaimed, targets are 21375/22640*+.
Downside: Key support levels are 19590/545*, 19445*, 19405, and 19165/100*.
Upside: Key resistance levels are 19880/985*, 20025/85*, 20165*, and 20600.
Above 19680, bulls keep momentum.
Below 19590, especially with a red day close, bulls enter the pain zone.
Stick to trading level by level as usual.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 in play (hit 20320 on June 20th)
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 19245 holds or reclaimed, 20705*/820* in play (hit all monthly targets & 20820 back in play)
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long as 19750 defended by bears, 18245*/160/045*/17865/465* in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 19680 or 19590 holds and 20025 or at least 19915 reclaimed, 20085*/165*/215/290*/370*/600*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 19590 fails, 19540*/445*/19405/315/165*/100*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 19825, 19880*, (19915*), 19985*, 20035, (20085*), (20165*), 20215*, 20260, 20290*, 20335, (20370*), 20400, 20455*, 20525*, 20565, (20600*), 20635*, 20655*, (20685*), 20745, (20800*), 20890*/920*, (20975*), 21005, 21045, 21095*, 21125, 21160/190*, 21240, 21330*, (21375*)

Support: 19740/710*, 19680*, (19635*), 19590/565*, 19530, (19445*), 19405*, 19360, 19335/315*, 19225, 19165*, (19100*), 19030*, 18980*, (18925*), 18815, 18790*, 18745*, 18710, (18650*/625), 18590*, (18550/520*), 18470*, 18430, 18405*, (18380*), 18320*, 18240*, 18205, 18190*, (18155*), 18120, 18065*, 17995*, 17940, 17880, (17855/835*), 17745*/720*, (17535*), 17465*/430*, 17380, (17350*), 17315, 17275, 17220, (17180*), 17150, (17110*), 17000*, 16940

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:
1. On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (10-30 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
  - Levels to consider for long plays: 19590/545*, 19445*, 19405 and 19165/100*

Short Trades:
On lower time frames, if bears defend the price or goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (10-30 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for short plays: 20085*, 20165* 20290 and 20600*

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moved down Lime flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 18980 daily downtrend is in question (triggered on Aug 13th)
1st Green Flag: A close above 19985 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 20600 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Analysis:

Week closed in strong green. Keeping bullish bias.
Friday, Aug 23rd, triggered the 1st Green Flag.
Bulls must defend the Aug 23rd low in any deeper pullback.
Ideally, bulls hold above 2221/2213 and push toward 2273/78/83 targets early in the week.
Downside: Key support levels are 2221/13, 2198, 2170/64.5*, and 2144.5*.
Upside: Key resistance levels are 2236, 2273*/83*, 2322*, and 2346.
Above 2198, bulls keep momentum.
Below 2164.5, especially with a red day close, bulls enter the pain zone.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 2053/2032 holds or reclaimed 2210/2247/2300+ in play (hit all monthly targets)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2272/78, 2068/2040/2006.5- in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long as 2221/2213 or at last 2198 holds or reclaimed, 2236/73/78*/83*/2305*/22*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2198 fails, 2176*/70/64.5*/44.5*/37*/24*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: (2236*), 2249, 2256*, 2261, (2273*/78*), (2283/86*), 2291, 2298, 2300*, 2305*, 2311, (2322*), 2332/35*, (2346*), 2360, 2364*, 2373*, (2378*), 2386.5*, 2405, (2413*), (2424*)
Support: (2221), 2217, 2213*, 2206*, (2198*), 2187, 2176*, 2170, 2164.5*, 2158/55, 2150, 2144.5*, 2137/33, 2128, 2124*, 2112*, 2091*, (2087/81*), 2074*/70*, (2063*), 2057*, (2042/35*), (2026*), 2020, 2015*, (2006*), 2000.5, 1998*, (1992*), (1983/78*), (1964*), (1955*), (1941*)

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moving down flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 2126, daily downtrend is in question (triggered Aug 15)
1st Green Flag: A close above 2200 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question. (triggered Aug 23rd)
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 2286 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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