Weekly Charts Reading for 8/19- 8/23

Gut Check?

Aug 18, 2024

Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

As expected, a bullish close across the market after last week’s impressive pin bar candles.
#ES & #NQ held key supports early and closed the week solidly in the green.
#YM offered quick short opportunities early, but bulls reclaimed control from Tuesday onward.
#RTY provided the best two-way trading opportunities most of the week.
While #ES and #NQ are nearing key resistance zones, #RTY and #YM still have some room to run.
As expected, #DXY bears defended 102.340 (high of 102.310) and pushed the price down to 102.350, where it found support but still closed the week in red, just above 102.350.
Last week delivered bi-directional trading opportunities with big swings, with more buy-the-dips except for #RTY.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (8/19 – 8/23)

With the FOMC meeting minutes, Jackson Hole, and speeches from the Fed Chair and FOMC members, plus usual economic reports, expect continued large-range volatile moves next week.
My two-week-old expectation that "if lime or 1st green flags are triggered, then a move to previous highs is likely" still holds.
For #ES: Bulls need to defend Friday & Wednesday lows.
For #NQ: Bulls need to defend Friday & Tuesday lows.
For #RTY & #YM: Bulls need to defend Thursday & Tuesday lows.

Quick Summary:

#ES: Bullish above 5557, bearish below 5535.
#NQ: Bullish above 19480, bearish below 19445.
#RTY: Bullish above 2137, bearish below 2133.
#YM: Bullish above 40565, bearish below 40545.

Quick Plays:

#ES: As long as 5573/5557 holds, targets are 5608*/30*/38*/5716*+. If 5557 fails, expect 5542/35*/5491/85*/76/72*-.
#NQ: As long as 19590/565 or 19480 holds, targets are 19720/19885/985*/20085*/20165*+. If 19445 fails, expect 19405/315/165*/100*/18980*-.
#RTY: As long as 2149/45 or at least 2137 holds or is reclaimed, targets are 2167/76*/2200/06*+. If 2133 fails, expect 2124/2112/2095/91*/81*-.
#YM: As long as 40770/725 or 40640 holds, targets are 41110*/140*/215/305*/395*+. If 40640 fails, expect 40565*/545*/390*/245/160*-.
#DXY: Ideally, bears hold 102.775 and close below 102.300 to continue the move down to 102.075, 101.900, and 101.335. Otherwise, expect more chop & upside movement.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐂

Analysis:

Strong green week, but caution is advised as we're nearing key resistance.
Expect chop between 5573 - 5630.
A quick drop below 5535 to around 5527, followed by a reclaim of 5535 the same day, is bullish.
If a deeper pullback occurs, bulls must defend 5465/57 to avoid a reversal and a drop to 5372/68.
Above 5465/57, last week’s breakout remains valid.
A red day close below 5455 means the breakout has failed.
As long as last week’s breakout holds, targets are 5880*/5965/6110*/6230*+.
Key Support Levels: 5557, 5535*, 5457, 5435*.
Key Resistance Levels: 5602/08*, 5630, 5645, 5665.
Above 5557, bulls maintain momentum.
Below 5535, especially with a red day close, bulls enter the pain zone.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus (first target hit Jul 5th)
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 5435 or at last 5380 holds/reclaimed, 5705/5800 in play (first monthly target of 5705 hit & 5380 reclaimed 5800 back in play)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 5608/38, 5300*/5250*/35/5200*/5188*- in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 5573/5557 holds, 5608*/30*/38*/5716*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5557 fails, 5542/35*/5491/85*/76/72*- in play.

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 5587*, 5596, (5602*/08*), 5616, (5630*), 5635/38*, 5646, 5656*, 5664*/68*, 5704, (5716*), 5722, 5731, (5740*), 5747, 5760, (5775*), 5785, 5793, (5805*), 5813, 5825*, 5850*, (5880*)
Support: (5573*), 5567, 5557*/52*, (5542/35*), 5527*, 5516, 5000, 5491/85*, (5476/72*), 5465*/60*, 5453*, (5442/38*), 5432, 5415*, 5409*, 5397*, 5390, 5383*, (5371*/68*), 5362, 5350*, (5343/38*), (5330*/20*), (5309/05*), 5300

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (3-5 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for long plays: 5535, 5491/85, 5457 and 5445

Short Trades:

On lower time frames, if the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (3-5 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.

Levels to consider for short plays: 5588, 5602/08, 5630/38 and 5646/56

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moving down Lime level aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 5474, daily downtrend is in question (triggered Aug 14th)
1st Green Flag: A close above 5608 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 5638 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Analysis:

Strong green week, but caution is needed as we're nearing key resistance at 19750-20085.
Expect chop between 19685-20085.
A quick drop below 19445 to around 19405, followed by a reclaim of 19445 the same day, is bullish.
If a deeper pullback occurs, bulls must defend 19165/19100 to avoid a reversal and a drop to 18980/1815, then 18650/1625.
Above 18925/18790, last week’s breakout remains valid.
A close below 18925 signals a failed breakout.
As long as last week’s breakout holds, targets are 21375/22640+.
Key Support Levels: 19480/19445, 19165/19100, 18925/18790, 18650.
Key Resistance Levels: 19720, 19885/19985, 20085, 20165.
Above 19480, bulls keep momentum.
Below 19445, especially with a red day close, bulls enter the pain zone.
Stick to trading level by level as usual.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 in play (hit 20320 on June 20th)
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 19245 holds or reclaimed, 20705*/820* in play (hit all monthly targets & 20820 back in play)
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long as 19750 defended by bears, 18245*/160/045*/17865/465* in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 19590/565 or 19480 holds, 19720/19885/985*/20085*/20165*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 19445 fails, 19405/315/165*/100*/18980*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: (19655/685*), 19720*, 19750*/785, 19835*, (19885*), 19945*, 19985**, 20035, (20085*), (20165*), 20215*, 20260, 20290*, 20335, (20370*), 20400, 20455*, 20525*, 20565, (20600*), 20635*, 20655*, (20685*), 20745, (20800*), 20890*/920*, (20975*), 21005, 21045, 21095*, 21125, 21160/190*, 21240, 21330*, (21375*)

Support: 19590/565*, (19480/445*), 19405*, 19360, 19335/315*, 19225, 19165*, (19100*), 19030*, 18980*, (18925*), 18815, 18790*, 18745*, 18710, (18650*/625), 18590*, (18550/520*), 18470*, 18430, 18405*, (18380*), 18320*, 18240*, 18205, 18190*, (18155*), 18120, 18065*, 17995*, 17940, 17880, (17855/835*), 17745*/720*, (17535*), 17465*/430*, 17380, (17350*), 17315, 17275, 17220, (17180*), 17150, (17110*), 17000*, 16940

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:
1. On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (10-30 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
  - Levels to consider for long plays: 19405, 19165/19100, 18925/18790 and 18650

Short Trades:
On lower time frames, if the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (10-30 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for short plays: 19720, 19885/19985, 20085 and 20165

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moved down Lime flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 18980 daily downtrend is in question (triggered on Aug 13th)
1st Green Flag: A close above 19985 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 20600 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Analysis:

Strong green week, but caution is needed as bulls haven’t claimed 2167, let alone the first green flag at 2200.
A quick drop below 2133 to around 2128, followed by a reclaim of 2133 the same day, is bullish.
If a deeper pullback occurs, bulls must defend 2124/2112 to avoid a reversal and a drop to 2091/2081.
Above 2091/2081, last week’s breakout remains in play.
A red day close below 2081 signals a failed breakout, with a close below 2124 as an early warning.
As long as last week’s breakout holds, targets are 2272/2400+.
Key Support Levels: 2137, 2124, 2112, 2091/2081.
Key Resistance Levels: 2167, 2176, 2196/2200*, 2249.
Above 2137, bulls keep momentum.
Below 2124, especially with a red day close, bulls enter the pain zone.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 2053/2032 holds or reclaimed 2210/2247/2300+ in play (hit all monthly targets)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2272/78, 2068/2040/2006.5- in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long as 2149/45 or at last 2137 holds or reclaimed, 2167/76*/2200/06*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2133 fails, 2124/2112/2095/91*/81*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 2155/59*, (2164/67*), 2176*, 2187, 2196*, (2200*/06*), 2236, 2249*, 2261, (2272*/77*), (2286*), (2300*), (2305*), 2311, 2322, 2332/35*, (2346*)
Support: 2149/45, 2137/33, 2128, 2124*, 2112*, 2091*, (2087/81*), 2074*/70*, (2063*), 2057*, (2042/35*), (2026*), 2020, 2015*, (2006*), 2000.5, 1998*, (1992*), (1983/78*), (1964*), (1955*), (1941*)

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moving down flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 2126, daily downtrend is in question (triggered Aug 15)
1st Green Flag: A close above 2200 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 2286 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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