Weekly Charts Reading for 8/12- 8/16

Long or Wrong?

Aug 11, 2024

Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

Market tanked as expected, testing last monthly supports and dipping even lower.
Bulls stepped in and closed the week with impressive weekly pin bar candles.
Thursday's price action showed the bulls doing their damage repair work, just as I anticipated.
#NQ bounced precisely from trend line support, connecting the lows of Jan 2023 & Oct 2023.
#DXY bears pushed the price down to 102.160, where it found support but still closed the week slightly in the red.
Last week offered bi-directional trading opportunities with huge swings—golden for active day traders.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (8/12 – 8/16)

With no major economic reports or events on the calendar (aside from the usual geopolitical risks), Thursday's bullish momentum for #ES & #NQ is likely to continue Sunday/Monday.
Expect more market volatility from Tuesday through Thursday due to key economic reports like PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales.
Based on the daily & weekly close, #ES & #NQ are likely to test lime flag levels, though the timing is uncertain.
#RTY needs to claim 2112 on the daily chart to bring the lime flag level of 2176 into play.
#YM needs to reclaim 39755 on the daily (almost the same as last week) to target 40030/235*+.
My expectation from last week remains: If lime or first green flags trigger as identified, a move to previous highs is likely.
Bulls have taken short-term control, but they aren't out of the woods until flag levels are claimed.
As long as support holds, expect more buy-the-dip opportunities.

Quick Summary:

#ES:
- As long as 5354/5341 holds and 5382 is reclaimed:
  - 5417*/37/45*/74*/90*/5516/28*/40/75*+ are in play.
- If 5341 fails:
  - 5330/20*/06*/5263/33*/03*- come into play.
#NQ:
- As long as 18565/520 or 18470 holds:
  - 18765/805*/980*/19110/235*/595+ are in play.
- If 18470 fails:
  - 18405*/380/320*/155*/065*/17855*/835*- are in play.
#RTY:
- As long as 2085/2080 holds and 2112 is reclaimed:
  - 2126/32/45/65*/75/86*/2200*+ are in play.
- If 2080 fails:
  - 2072*/64/57*/42/35*/26*- come into play.
#YM:
- As long as 39585/515/465 holds and 39755 is reclaimed:
  - 39880/40045*/235/435*+ are in play.
- If 39465 fails:
  - 39415/340*/040/38840*- come into play.
#DXY:
- Ideally, bears hold 103.340 and continue the move down to 102.350.
- If the week doesn't close below 102.350:
  - Expect more chop and upside moves.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐂

Summary:

Bulls must defend 5305 to maintain momentum.

If last week's low fails:
- 16470/370 comes into play.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus (first target hit Jul 5th)
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 5435 or at last 5380 holds/reclaimed, 5705/5800 in play (first monthly target of 5705 hit & now invalid because 5380 failed to hold)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 5608/38, 5300*/5250*/35/5200*/5188*- in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: If 5354/5341 holds and 5382 is reclaimed, 5417*/37/45*/74*/90*/5516/28*/40/75*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: As long bears hold 5656/74 or 5608 and 5342 fails, 5330/20*/06*/5263/33*/03*- in play.

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 5371, (5382*), 5389, 5397*, 5409*, 5417, (5432/37*), 5445, (5456*), 5464, (5474*), 5481, 5490*, 5516*, 5528, 5539*, 5555*, (5575*), 5596, (5602*/08*), 5616, (5630*), 5635/38*, 5646, 5655*, 5662*/68*, (5716*)
Support: (5354*), 5341, (5330*/20*), (5309/05*), 5300, 5288, (5271*/63*), 5240*, (5233*/25), 5216, 5210*, (5203*/5195), 5182*, 5160*, (5151*/46*), 5120, (5110/5100*), 5064, 5055*, (5037*), (5009*/03*), 4990, (4960*)

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Bears are clearly in control for now. Bulls need to claim the identified levels above to prove their intentions and commitment.
Until then, consider all long plays short-term and take profits level to level, even a bit earlier than profit targets.

On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (3-5 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for long plays: 5235, 5209/5205, 5100, 5035 and 5009/03

Short Trades:

On lower time frames, if the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (3-5 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.

Levels to consider for short plays: 5437/56, 5464/74, 5516/28, 5574/88 and 5602/08

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moving down Lime level aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 5474, daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 5608 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 5638 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Summary:

Bulls keep momentum above 18320.
Bears gain strength below 18320.
If last week's low fails:
- 4895/75 comes into play.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 in play (hit 20320 on June 20th)
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 19245 holds or reclaimed, 20705*/820* in play (hit all monthly targets & now invalid as support failed)
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long as 19750 defended by bears, 18245*/160/045*/17865/465* in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 18565/520 or 18470 holds, 18765/805*/980*/19110/235*/595+ in play
🐻 Bearish: if 18470 fails, 18405*/380/320*/155*/065*/17855*/835*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 18640/680*, 18765*, (18805*), 18880, 18940*, (18980*), 19050, 19110*, 19175, (19235*/265), 19315*, 19360*, 19445, 19500, (19595*), 19720*, 19750*, (19885*), 19945*, (19985*), (20085*), (20165*), 20215*, 20260, 20290*, 20335, 20370*, 20400, 20455*, 20520, 20565, 20580*, (20600*/630*), 20655*, (20685*), (20800*)

Support: 18565/520, 18470*, 18430, 18405*, (18380*), 18320*, 18240*, 18205, 18190*, (18155*), 18120, 18065*, 17995*, 17940, 17880, (17855/835*), 17745*/720*, (17535*), 17465*/430*, 17380, (17350*), 17315, 17275, 17220, (17180*), 17150, (17110*), 17000*, 16940

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:
- Bears are in control for now. Bulls need to claim the identified levels above to prove their intentions and commitment.
- Until then, consider all long plays short-term and take profits level to level, even a bit earlier than profit targets.
1. On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (10-30 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
  - Levels to consider for long plays: 17995*, 17855/835, 17535, and 17180/110

Short Trades:
On lower time frames, if the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (10-30 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for short plays: 18940/980, 19235*/265, 19345/360, and 19595/720

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moved down Lime flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 18980 daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 19985 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 20600 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Summary:

Bulls keep momentum above 2080.
Bears gain strength below 2070.
If last week's low fails:
- 1880 comes into play.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 2053/2032 holds or reclaimed 2210/2247/2300+ in play (hit all monthly targets)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2272/78, 2068/2040/2006.5- in play (hit all targets)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long as 2085/2080 holds and 2112 reclaimed, 2126/32/45/65*/75/86*/2200*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2080 fails, 2072*/64/57*/42/35*/26*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 2095, 2105*, 2112, (2126/32*), 2141, 2145*, (2167*), 2175*, 2187, 2195*, (2200*/06*), 2236, 2249*, 2261, (2272*/77*), (2286*), (2300*), (2305*), 2311, 2322, 2332/35*, (2346*)
Support: 2085/80, (2075*/70), 2064, 2057*, (2042/35*), (2026*), 2020, 2015*, (2006*), 2000.5, 1998*, (1992*), (1983/78*), (1964*), (1955*), (1941*)

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moving down flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 2126, daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 2200 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 2286 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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