Weekly Charts Reading for 8/05- 8/09

More Bear, Anyone?

Aug 04, 2024

Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

As expected, the market saw a huge volatility spike after Wednesday's FOMC rate/conference.
#ES and #NQ had a bullish bias on the daily chart but were bearish for the week. The market didn't disappoint.
Unexpectedly, #RTY and #YM broke down quickly on Thursday and Friday. Before that, #RTY made a new 52-week high, and #YM made a weak attempt.
#DXY bulls took the price above key resistance on Monday, but bears stepped in quickly on Tuesday, ending the week below the key 103.880 level. Support was found precisely at the next weekly level, 103.220.

As anticipated, last week offered bi-directional trading opportunities, with more short opportunities than long.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (8/05 – 8/09)

Earning season continues but with big tech earnings almost done and a quiet week for economic reports, the focus may shift to whether bulls will try to repair last week's damage.
#ES and #NQ had expected red weeks, but the sudden, deep fall in #RTY and #YM was unexpected.
All indices have some downside potential, but monthly support levels are close. Ideally, these supports are tested before a bounce, which is more likely to hold short term.
The inverse correlation between #DXY and #RTY broke on Friday, but it may resume soon.
If this week's lows hold (lime or 1st green flags triggered as identified below), a move to previous highs is likely. This is a hunch, not a trading plan.
Bears are still in control for now. Bulls need to claim the identified levels to prove their intentions and commitment. Until that happens, consider all long plays short term and take profits level to level.

Quick summary:

#ES:
- As long as 5350/5342 holds & reclaim 5380: Targets 5437/56*/74*/5516/28/75*/4608*+
- If 5342 fails: Targets 5300*/5250*/35/5200*-
#NQ:
- As long as 18500/18435 holds & reclaim 18630: Targets 18765/880*/980*/19050/110/595+
- If 18435 fails: Targets 18245*/160/045*/17980*/865*-
#RTY:
- As long as 2110/2105 holds & reclaim 2126: Targets 2132/45/65*/75/86*/2200*+
- If 2105 fails: Targets 2095/2069.5/65*/41*/35*-
#YM:
- As long as 39735/620/560 holds & reclaim 39750: Targets 39815/935/40030*/235/435*+
- If 39560 fails: Targets 39450/335*/285*/38965*-
#DXY:
- After losing key 103.880 support, it hit the next weekly support at 103.220 and held on Friday. Bears must offer strong resistance at 103.880 or at least 104.100 in case of a back test to keep moving down to 102.740. Otherwise, more chop and upside move are likely.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

📈 Weekly: caution 🐻 📊 Daily: caution 🐂

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus (first target hit Jul 5th)
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 5435 or at last 5380 holds/reclaimed, 5705/5800 in play (first monthly target of 5705 hit & now invalid because 5380 failed to hold)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 5608/38, 5300*/5250*/35/5200*/5188*- in play (hit couple of targets. added new)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: If 5350/5342 holds and 5380 is reclaimed, 5437/56*/74*/5516/28/75*/4608*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: As long bears hold 5656/74 or 5608 and 5342 fails, 5300*/5250*/35/5200*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: (5380*), 5389, 5397*, 5409*, 5417, (5432/37*), 5445, (5456*), 5464, (5474*), 5481, 5490*, 5516*, 5528, 5539*, 5555*, (5575*), 5596, (5602*/08*), 5616, (5630*), 5635/38*, 5646, 5655*, 5662*/68*, (5716*)
Support: (5350*), 5342, (5335*), 5320, (5305*/00*), 5287, 5270*, 5259, (5250*/45*), 5237/32*, 5227, 5217**, (5209/5205*), 5195/88*, (5167*/55*), 5147*, (5110/5100*), 5064, 5055*, (5037*), (5009*/03*), 4990, (4960*)

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Bears are clearly in control for now. Bulls need to claim the identified levels above to prove their intentions and commitment.
Until then, consider all long plays short-term and take profits level to level, even a bit earlier than profit targets.

On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (3-5 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for long plays: 5305/00, 5250/37, 5209/5205 and 5009/03

Short Trades:

On lower time frames, if the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (3-5 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.

Levels to consider for short plays: 5437/56, 5464/74, 5516/28, 5574/88 and 5602/08

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moving down Lime level aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 5474, daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 5608 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 5638 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

📈 Weekly: cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 in play (hit 20320 on June 20th)
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 19245 holds or reclaimed, 20705*/820* in play (hit all monthly targets & now invalid as support failed)
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long as 19750 defended by bears, 18245*/160/045*/17865/465* in play (hit all previous targets. added new)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 18500 or 18435 holds and 18630 reclaimed, 18765/880*/980*/19050/110/595+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 18435 fails, 18245*/160/045*/17980*/865*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 18600, 18630/680*, 18765*, 18805*, 18880*, 18940, (18980*), 19050*, 19110*, (19175*), 19220*, 19275, 19315*, 19360*, 19445, 19500, 19595*, (19720*/750*), (19885*), 19945*, (19985*), (20085*), (20165*), 20215*, 20260, 20290*, 20335, 20370*, 20400, 20455*, 20520, 20565, 20580*, (20600*/630*), 20655*, (20685*), (20800*)

Support: 18500, 18480*, (18435*), (18390*), 18290*, (18245/230*), 18160*, 18120, (18070/45*), 17980*, 17925, 17895*/865*, (17745*/720*), 17530, (17465*/430*), 17380, (17350*), 17315, 17275, 17220, (17180*), 17150, (17110*), 17000*, 16940

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:
- Bears are in control for now. Bulls need to claim the identified levels above to prove their intentions and commitment.
- Until then, consider all long plays short-term and take profits level to level, even a bit earlier than profit targets.
1. On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (10-30 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
  - Levels to consider for long plays: 18245/230, 18070/45, 17745/720 and 17180/110

Short Trades:
On lower time frames, if the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (10-30 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for short plays: 18940/980, 19050, 19175/220, 19595/720 and 19985/20085

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moved down Lime flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 18980daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 19985 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 20600 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 2053/2032 holds or reclaimed 2210/2247/2300+ in play (hit all monthly targets)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2272/78, 2068/2040/2006.5- in play (new bear targets added)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 2110/2105 holds and 2126 reclaimed, 2132/45/65*/75/86*/2200*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2105 fails, 2095/2069.5/65*/41*/35*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 2126/32*, 2141, (2145*), (2167*), 2175*, 2187, 2195*, (2200*/06*), 2236, 2249*, 2261, (2272*/77*), (2286*), (2300*), (2305*), 2311, 2322, 2332/35*, (2346*)
Support: 2105*, (2095*), (2069.5*/65*), (2048.5*), (2041*), 2037*/35*, 2032, (2025.5*), 2020, (2015*), (2006.5*), 2000.5, (1998*), (1978*), (1964*), (1955*), (1941*)

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moving down flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 2176, daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 2200 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 2286 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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