Weekly Charts Reading for 7/8- 7/12

March*ing through July?

Jul 07, 2024

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How’s last week?

#ES_F

New ATH on Friday, hitting my first yearly target of 5615 (5625 high).
Last week started bearish, but Wednesday's bounce from 5503 and close above 5563 turned it bullish.
Bulls didn't let the price fall to test 5500, showing resolve and quick claim of 5563 as commitment.

#NQ_F

Made new ATH on Friday.
Last week started bearish, but Tuesday's bounce from 19810 and quick reclaim of 19905 turned it bullish. Wednesday's close above 20085 confirmed the bullish trend for the week.
Broke out of two weeks of range-bound price action with momentum after Wednesday's close above key level 20085.

#RTY

Continues to coil in a tight range.
Needs a decisive close above 2085 or below 2019 to start a trend.

#YM

Continued moving in a tight range. Every bullish attempt to claim key levels met with bearish resistance, but bulls defended support from the week before.
Bulls need to claim 40K or at least 39860 to show commitment. Bears need to claim 39385 to continue moving down.

#DXY

Bears finally closed the week below 105, raising bearish hopes.
Good start, but bears still need a weekly close below 103.800 for confidence.

For active traders, the market offered good bi-directional trading opportunities from Sunday to Tuesday, then turned bullish for the rest of the week.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (7/8 – 7/12)

After last week's big moves in #ES and #NQ, the market might need some cooling off after 3-4 green days in a row.
The question is: will it happen before moving up again or after making new highs?
Though #NQ and #ES show bullish strength, this week might still offer bi-directional trading opportunities.

Quick Summary:

#ES: As long as 5564 holds/reclaimed, targets are 5705/5712/5740+.
#NQ: As long as 20240 holds/reclaimed, targets are 20705/20820/2145+.
#RTY: As long as 2038/35 holds/reclaimed, targets are 2070/80/85+.
#YM: As long as 39590/560 holds and 39685 is claimed, targets are 39800, 39850, 40K, and 40130+. Once 40K is claimed, 40700+ is in play.

Since #DXY closed the week below 105, USD bears may be hopeful, which could help #RTY bulls. Next level for #DXY bears to get confident is a weekly close below 103.800.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

Key economic reports next week include Thursday's CPI and Unemployment Claims, and Friday's PPI. But that's not all. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify in the Senate on Tuesday and in the House on Wednesday. These events may give the market reason to think its forward movement.

Earnings season has started, with big banks like JPM, WFC, and C reporting earnings later this week.

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐂

Analysis:

Strong green week after a somewhat red week.
Changing weekly and daily bias back to bullish.
Above 5585, bulls keep momentum.
Below 5564/60, bulls enter the pain zone.

Downside:

Key support levels: 5590, 5564, 5535, and 5500.
Ideally, bulls defend 5590 or at least 5585 to prevent deeper drawdown pain.

Upside:

Key resistance levels: 5623, 5642, 5662*/80*, and 5705/12.

Based on last week's analysis, this still holds: "Daily close above 5585 brings 5656/5680 on the radar."

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus (first target hit Jul 5th)
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 5435 or at last 5380 holds/reclaimed, 5705/5800 in play
🐻 Bearish: will determine when weekly trend turns bearish

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: If 5613 or 5607/03 holds, 5623/42*/62*/80*/5705*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5603 fails, 5590/85*/64/60*/36*- in play.

Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):

If 5513 or 5607/03 holds, 5619/23/30 in play
If 5623 claimed, 5642/50/62* next
If 5662 claimed, 5670/80*/85 in play
If 5680 claimed, 5694/5705*/12* next

Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):

If 5603 fails, 5596/90*/85* in play
If 5585 fails, 5574/64*/60* next
If 5560 fails, 5551/43/35* in play
If 5535 fails, 5523/11*/05*/5495* next

Zoomed-out View:

🐂 Bullish: If 5500 holds or reclaimed (on weekly), 5705/5800 in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5435 fails to hold, 5300/5269/50*/45/17*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 5619, 5623*, 5630, 5642*, 5650, 5662*, 5670, 5680*, 5694*, 5705, 5712*, 5721, 5730, 5740*, 5754, 5765, 5803*
Support: 5613, 5607/03*, 5596, 5590/85*, 5574/69, 5564*/60*, 5554/51, 5543, 5536*, 5530, 5523/19*, 5515*/11*, 5505/00*, 5495*/90*, 5470/65, 5454*, 5445/35*, 5415, 5398*, 5385/80*, 5370*, 5347, 5334*

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:

*If price holds 5590 or drops below 5590 say 5588 & quickly claims 5591 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5590 and 5598*, 5607, 5613* and 5619 as targets.
If price holds 5585 or drops below 5585 say 5582 & quickly claims 5588 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5585 and 5596*, 5607 and 5615* as targets.
*If price holds 5564 or drops below 5564 say 5560 & quickly claims 5564 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5560 and 5574, 5582*, 5588 and 5593* as targets.
*If price holds 5560 or drops below 5560 say 5557 & quickly claims 5564 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5564 and 5574, 5582*, 5588 and 5593* as targets.
*If price holds 5536 or drops below 5536 say 5532 & quickly claims 5536 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5536 and 5545*, 5554 and 5564* as targets.
*If price holds 5519 and quickly claims 5523 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5523 and 5536*, 5545, 5560* as targets.

Short Trades:

On lower time frames if rejection of 5623/63/80/5705 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets.

Red Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

Moving flag levels up aggressively for early detection of trend change

Orange Flag: Close below 5560 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 5500 suggests a potential shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 5435 indicates possible voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Analysis:

Strong green week after a slight red week.
Changing weekly and daily bias to bullish.

Upside:

Above 20435, bulls keep momentum.
Key resistance levels: 20630, 20705, 20790/875, and 21045.

Downside:

Below 20370, bulls enter the pain zone.
Key support levels: 20415, 20240*/215, 19970/945*, and 19750/725*.
Ideally, bulls defend 20415 or at least 20370 to prevent deeper drawdown pain.

Deeper pullback scenario:

Key support levels: 19970/945, 19725/700, 19600, 19500, and 19025*.
Bulls need to defend 19970/945 in any deeper pullback.

As mentioned in last week's newsletter, this still holds: "Daily green close above 20275, bulls confident and in control, bringing 20705 on the radar."

Stick to trading level by level as usual.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 in play (hit 20320 on June 20th)
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: As long 19245 holds or reclaimed, 20705*/820* in play (hit 20580/615 targets)
🐻 Bearish Goal: will determine when weekly trend turns bearish

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: If 20590 or 20525 holds/reclaimed, 20630*/705/820*/875*/21045+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 20525 fails, 20490/415/370/240/215/19970*- in play

Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):

If 20590 or 20525 holds, 20630/20675/705* in play
If 20705 claimed, 20790/820*/875* next
If 20875 claimed, 20970/21005/045* in play
If 21045 claimed, 21160*/240/330* next

Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):

If 20525 fails, 20490/415/370* in play
If 20370 fails, 20240/215*/200 next
If 20200 fails, 20065/19970/940* in play
1f 19905 fails, 19750/725*/700* next

Zoomed-out View:

🐂 Bullish: as long 20240/200 holds or reclaimed, 20705/820/875/21045+ in play
🐻 Bearish: if 20200 fails to hold, 19970*/905*/19750*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 20630*, 20675, 20705*, 20740, 20790*, 20820*, 20875*, 20915, 20970*, 21005*/45*, 21160*, 21240, 21330, 21375, 21680*, 21220*

Support: 20590*, 20560, 20525, 20490*, 20460, 20415*, 20370*, 20290, 20240, 20215*/200*, 20125, 20065*, 20015, 19970/945*, 19905*/880*, 19840/810*, 19750/725*, 19700, 19685*, 19625/00, 19545, 19500*

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:

If price holds 20490 or drops below 20490 say 20475 & quickly claims 20490 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 20490 and 20560, 20590 and 20630 as targets.
* If price holds 20425 or drops below 20425 say 20410 & quickly claims 20425 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 20425 and 20490, 20525, 20560, and 20590* as targets.
If price holds 20370 or drops below 20370 say 20360 & quickly claims 20370 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 20370 and 20415, 20445, 20490 and 20525 as targets.
If price holds 20240 or drops below 20240 say 20230 & quickly claims 20245 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 20240 and 20290, 20330 and 20370 as targets.
*If price holds 20215 or drops below 20215 say 20205 & quickly claims 20220 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 20215 and 20240, 20290, 20330 and 20370 as targets.
*If price holds 19970 or drops below 19970 say 19960 & quickly claims 19970 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19970 and 20015, 20065 and 20125 as targets.
*If price holds 19945 or drops below 19945 say 19920 & quickly claims 19945 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19945 and 19970, 20015 and 20065 as targets.

Short Trades:
1. On lower time frames if rejection of 20630, 20705, 20790, 20875, 21045 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets.

Red Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

Moving flag levels up aggressively for early detection of trend change

Orange Flag: Close below 20200 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 19905 on a red day may suggest a shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 19700 on a red day may indicate potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Analysis:

Week closed red but held the lows of 2026.5 from the week before.
Keeping weekly and daily bias bullish.
Couldn't claim 2080 after testing, adding caution to bullish bias until a green day closes above 2080.
Coiling for a few weeks.
May see a faster, bigger move if a green day closes above 2080 or 2070, or if a red day closes below 2019 or 2026.
Upside moves haven't been sticking for months; bulls get shot down quickly at key levels.
A green day close above 2080 could change this pattern (2085 was the level last week, and 2106 before that).
Anticipating a bullish move in #RTY as long as 2032 holds or is quickly reclaimed without failing 2026, due to #DXY closing below 105.
Once a green day closes above 2085, and the low of that day holds, targets of 2117/19+ come into play.
Bulls need to defend 2026 or, in case of a deep pullback, to keep the monthly bullish bias in play.
Above 2032, bulls are hopeful.
Below 2026, bulls enter the pain zone.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: As long 2053/2032 holds or reclaimed 2210/2247/2300+ in play (back in play)
🐻 Bearish: As long bears hold 2058 or at least 2036, 1982/1960 in play (invalidated)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: If 2038/2032 holds and 2070 reclaimed, 2080/85/2101/06*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2032 fails, 2026/19/15/06*- in play

Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):

If 2038/2032 holds, 2052/2056 in play
If 2056 claimed, 2063/2070* next
If 2070 claimed, 2080*/2085* in play
If 2085 claimed, 2095/2101*/2106* next
If 2106 claimed, 2111/2114*/2119* in play
If 2119 claimed, 2124/2130* next

Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):

If 2032 fails, 2026/2019* in play
If 2019 fails, 2015/2006* next
If 2006 fails, 1998*/1991* in play
If 1991 fails, 1982/1978 next

Zoomed-out View:

🐂 Bullish: if 2033 holds, 2106/2111/19+ in play
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2060 or at last 2085, 1982/78 in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 2052, 2056, 2063, 2070*, 2080*/85*, 2098*, 2106*, 2114, 2119, 2124*, 2130*, 2141.5, 2153.5*
Support: 2038/35*, 2032*, 2026*, 2019*, 2015, 2006*, 1999*, 1991*, 1985*, 1978*/72*, 1965, 1958*, 1952, 1946*

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Lime Flag: A close above 2085, daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 2106 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 2114 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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