Weekly Charts Reading for 7/29- 8/02

Fed's Move: Kick Bulls or Bears?

Jul 28, 2024

As posted on X yesterday, unforeseen circumstances left me with limited time to write this week's newsletter. I considered skipping it altogether, but I managed to put together a shortened version. This edition omits the usual level-by-level plays and individual index futures analysis, but it still includes actionable levels and an overview of my support and resistance levels and lean.
Please note, I won't be posting daily levels on Monday and Tuesday. Thank you for your understanding.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

As expected, #ES & #NQ showed a bullish bias on the daily chart but were bearish for the week.
Monday was green, and after a brief move up to resistance on Tuesday, bears continued their march down.
#RTY & #YM remained bullish on the daily and closed the week in green.
#DXY bears defended the 104.545 resistance level and closed the week slightly in the red.

As anticipated, last week offered bi-directional trading opportunities, with more short opportunities than long.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (7/29 – 8/02)

Earnings season is in full swing, with big tech like MSFT, META, AAPL, and AMZN reporting next week.
It's a busy week for economic reports, especially Wednesday's FOMC rate, statement, and press conference, which will decide the direction of the next leg.
Expect more volatile trading days with bigger ranges, especially starting Wednesday.
Note that #ES & #NQ bears are still in control. Bulls need to reclaim identified levels to prove their intentions and commitment. Until then, consider all long plays short-term and take profits level to level.
Based on price action so far, if #ES & #NQ bulls can defend Friday's lows, the week is likely to end up green. Just a hunch, not a trading plan.

Quick summary:

#ES: As long as 5490 or 5480 holds or is reclaimed, 5532*/52*/85/5608+ are in play. If 5481 fails, 5460/45*/35**/5400/5380- are in play.
#NQ: As long as 19155 or 19105 holds or is reclaimed, 19285/335/390*/655*/750*/885*/985*+ are in play. If 19105 fails, 19045/18995/940*/755*/700/555*- are in play.
#RTY: As long as 2268/2259 holds or is reclaimed, 2286*/89/2300*/2311/22/32*+ are in play. If 2259 fails, 2242/25/15.5/04- are in play.
#YM: As long as 40800/780/700 holds or is reclaimed, 40980/41010/155/540*/ATH+ are in play. If 40700 fails, 40615/430*/235*/190*/40050- are in play.
#DXY hit the second must-hold level precisely by bears Wednesday at 104.545 (104.555 high) and moved price down. Bears still not in control. Bears need to claim 104.120, 104.020 & 103.880 to regain control step by step. If #DXY moves upward, 104.400, 104.500, and 104.545 are key resistances where bears must step in, or bulls will regain control.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

📈 Weekly: caution 🐻 📊 Daily: caution 🐂

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus (first target hit Jul 5th)
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 5435 or at last 5380 holds/reclaimed, 5705/5800 in play (first monthly target of 5705 hit)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 5630/38, 5350/5300/5250 in play

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: If 5490/80 holds, 5527/32*/52*/64*/85*/5608*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: As long bears hold 5564 or 5585 and 5435 fails, 5350*/5300/5250*- in play.

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 5507, 5516, 5527*/32*, 5545, 5552*, 5564/69*, 5577, 5585*, 5588*, 5594, 5602*/08*, 5616*, 5630, 5635*/38*, 5646, 5655*, 5662*, 5668*, 5676/81, 5693*, 5700, 5705, 5712*, 5722
Support: 5490*, 5480*, 5460*, 5445*, 5435*, 5416, 5400*, 5595, 5385/80*, 5370*, 5347, 5334*, 5329*, 5320*, 5312, 5305*, 5299*, 5269*, 5258, 5250*/45*, 5237, 5227, 5217**, 5209/5202*

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Bears are clearly in control for now. Bulls need to claim the identified levels above to prove their intentions and commitment.
Until then, consider all long plays short-term and take profits level to level, even a bit earlier than profit targets.

On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (3-5 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for long plays: 5460/5435, 5350/35, 5300 and 5250/5237.

Short Trades:

On lower time frames, if the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (3-5 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.

Levels to consider for short plays: 5527/32, 5552, 5564/69, 5585, 5602/08 and 5630

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Lime Flag: A close above 5535, daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 5608 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 5638 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

📈 Weekly: cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 in play (hit 20320 on June 20th)
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: As long 19245 holds or reclaimed, 20705*/820* in play (hit all monthly targets)
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long as 20535 defended by bears, 19245/18705/18435 in play

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 19155 or 19105 holds or reclaimed, 19285/335/390*/655*/750*/885*/985*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 19105 fails, 19045/18995/940*/755*/700/555*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 19225, 19275*/295*, 19335*, 19390*, 19415, 19465, 19500*, 19550, 19655*, 19750*, 19885*, 19985*, 20085*, 20165**, 20215*, 20260, 20290*, 20335, 20370*, 20400, 20455*, 20520, 20565, 20580*, 20615, 20655*,20700/725*, 20820/850*, 20895/920*, 20970*, 21005, 21045, 21095*

Support: 19155*, 19105*, 19045*, 18995, 18875*, 18940*, 18900, 18855*, 18800, 18780*, 18755*/705*, 18695, 18660*, 18570/555*, 18510, 18480*, 18435/410, 18390*, 18290*, 18245/230*, 18160*

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:
- Bears are in control for now. Bulls need to claim the identified levels above to prove their intentions and commitment.
- Until then, consider all long plays short-term and take profits level to level, even a bit earlier than profit targets.
1. On lower time frames, if the price holds or is quickly reclaimed after dropping a few points (10-30 pts) below these key support levels, consider going long with a stop loss below these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels above these as posted daily on X.
  - Levels to consider for long plays: 18705/660, 18435, 18245/230*, and 1805/075

Short Trades:
On lower time frames, if the price goes above and quickly rejects these key resistance levels by a few points (10-30 pts), consider a short play with a stop loss above these levels and using 2nd and 3rd intra-day levels below these as posted daily on X.
- Levels to consider for short plays: 19275, 19335/390, 19655/750*, 19985/20085 and 20165

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Moved down flag levels aggressively for early detection of trend change

Lime Flag: A close above 19390 daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 19985 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 20600 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Will determine when monthly trend turns bearish

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 2053/2032 holds or reclaimed 2210/2247/2300+ in play (hit all monthly targets)
🐻 Bearish: As long bears hold 2058 or at least 2036, 1982/1960 in play (invalidated)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: As long 2268/2259 holds or reclaimed, 2286*/89/2300*/2311/22/32*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2259 fails, 2243/25/15.5/04- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 2283.5, 2286.5*, 2289*, 2296/2300*, 2311, 2322, 2332/35*, 2345/2346.5*, 2360, 2364*, 2373*, 2378, 2386.5*, 2413*
Support: 2268*, 2259*, 2251, 2243*, 2237, 2225.5, 2216*, 2204, 2201/2197, 2194*, 2188, 2183, 2175, 2169, 2165*, 2158*, 2148/45*

Red Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

As price didn’t move a lot from previous week, keeping flag levels same

Orange Flag: A close below 2194 daily uptrend is in question
1st Red Flag: A week close below 2169 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 2145 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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