Weekly Charts Reading for 6/24- 6/28

The Quarter Mix

Jun 23, 2024

Thanks to everyone who clicks 'Like', 'Repost', or 'Restack' this newsletter.
Your encouragement means a lot and keeps me motivated!

How’s last week?

#ES_F went up Monday/Tuesday and down Thursday/Friday after hitting a new ATH target of 5584 (high of 5588) before market open on Thursday. Still closed the third week in the green.
#NQ_F hit a new ATH on Thursday but dropped quickly Thursday/Friday, closing the week barely in the green.
#RTY ended the week respectably green after over 4 weeks of decline. If bulls can defend 2025, the month's low might be set.
#YM had a notable green reversal, likely marking May lows as another higher low.
#DXY bulls showed strength, closing the week strong green and proving they're still in control.

Overall, a mixed market for the short 4-day week, offering good bi-directional trading opportunities.

Interesting observation: Most short weeks this year saw good red days for #ES & #NQ.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Week Ahead (6/24 – 6/28)

This week marks the end of the month and quarter, which might bring unusual activity towards the end of the week.
Expect more volatility and bi-directional trading opportunities this week.
#ES and #NQ hit new ATHs this week. #ES traded about 12 pts higher, and #NQ about 100 pts higher in the Globex pre-open session. If Friday's low holds, we might see these levels back tested.
#DXY bulls continue to show strength. After three strong green weeks, a breather around 105.900 or 106.100 would be healthy.
If #DXY retreats a bit, #RTY bulls might get the boost they need to close the month in the green.
Given last week's strong bullish close for #YM, I may be looking for long trades with targets at 39730, 39885, and 40130, as long as 39520 or 39450 hold or are reclaimed.
If #YM and #RTY keep climbing while #ES & #NQ bulls take a breather, expect calls for “sector or fund rotation”.
As always, trade level to level with the right position size and stop loss.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

Next week, expect the usual economic reports from Tuesday to Friday. Quarterly GDP and unemployment claims on Thursday and core PCE on Friday will likely bring market volatility. Fed speakers are scheduled throughout the week, but Waller's remarks early Monday could bring the most volatility.

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐻

Analysis:

Third weekly green close, so keeping weekly bias bullish.
Thursday and Friday's move down and failure to close above 5547 add caution to the bullish bias.
Changing daily bias to bearish due to recent moves.
Friday's hold at 5527 adds caution to the bearish daily bias.
Daily bias will turn bullish if bulls close above 5575 or at least 5562, dialing down the caution on the weekly bullish bias.
Bulls are weak below 5562 (take quick profits on long trades until 5562 is claimed).
Weekly bias remains bullish as long as 5500/5490 holds on daily; 5380 is the last level for bulls to defend.
Above 5500, bulls maintain momentum; below 5390, bulls enter the pain zone.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Hold above 4420/4350 for focus on 5615/6110+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 5300 holds/reclaimed, 5705/5800 in play
🐻 Bearish Goal: will determine when weekly trend turns bearish

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: If 5525 or 5518 holds, 5551/75/5603/15*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5518 fails, 5500/5445/35/5398- in play

Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):

If 5529/25 or 5518 holds, 5538/47/51* in play
If 5551 claimed, 5562/75*/84* next
If 5575 claimed, 5603/5615* next
If 5615 claimed, 5642/5650* in play

Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):

If 5518 fails, 5503/00/5490 in play
If 5490 fails, 5452/45/35* next
If 5435 fails, 5415/5398 in play
If 5385 fails, 5385/5370* next

Zoomed-out View:

🐂 Bullish: if 5300 holds or reclaimed (on daily), 5705/5800 in play
🐻 Bearish: if 5300 fails to hold, 5269/5250*/45/17*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 5538, 5547/51*, 5562, 5575*, 5584, 5595, 5603, 5610, 5615*, 5622, 5630, 5642*, 5650*, 5665, 5680
Support: 5530/26*, 5518*/16*, 5512*/09*, 5503, 5492*/90*, 5470/65*, 5452, 5445/35*, 5415, 5398*, 5385/70*, 5347, 5330*

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:

If price holds 5530 or drops below 5530 say 5526 & quickly claims 5530 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5530 and 5538*, 5547, 5551* and 5562/5575 as targets.
If price holds 5518 or drops below 5518 say 5516 & quickly claims 5519 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5519 and 5529*, 5538, 5547* and 5551/5562 as targets.
If price holds 5503 or drops below 5503 say 5500 & quickly claims 5509 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5509 and 5518*, 5525, 5529* and 5538 as targets.
If price holds 5495 or drops below 5495 say 5492/90 & quickly claims 5495 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5495 and 5503*, 5509, 5518* as targets.
If price holds 5454 or drops below 5454 say 5452/48 & quickly claims 5454 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5452 and 5465*, 5472, 5480* as targets.
If price holds 5435 and quickly claims 5438 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5438 and 5447*, 5454, 5465* as targets.
If price holds 5409 or drops below 5409 say 5406 & quickly claims 5409 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5409 and 5417*, 5422, 5435* as targets.
If price holds 5398 and quickly claims 5406 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5400 and 5415*, 5422, 5435* as targets.

Short Trades:
1. On lower time frames if rejection of 5551/62/75 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets.

Red Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

As price didn't move significantly, keeping flag levels unchanged

Orange Flag: Close below 5525 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 5435 suggests a potential shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 5338 indicates possible voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻

Analysis:

Weak green weekly close after two strong bullish weeks.
Weekly bias remains bullish but with caution until 20285 is claimed on daily.
Bulls failed to claim 20080 on Friday, changing daily bias to bearish.
Red closes on Thursday/Friday held 19955 support, adding caution to daily bearish bias.
Thursday morning saw a new ATH at 20371 before RTH open, but support at 20285 failed, leading to a flush to 19905.
If 19905 holds and 20080 is reclaimed, 20285 would be the back-test target.
Bulls are weak below 20285 (take quick profits on long trades until 20285 is claimed).
Must-hold levels for bulls are close to the last weekly close. If 19905 fails, expect faster slicing down action.
In a quick move down, key levels for bulls are 19760 and 19700, with further support at 19600, 19230, 19025, and 18940.
Bulls need to hold 19955 or at least 19905 and quickly reclaim 20080 on Sunday/Monday to show commitment.
Bulls must defend 19230/19025 in deeper pullbacks.
Above 19955, bulls keep momentum; below 19905, bulls enter the pain zone.
Bears need to hold 20285/20310.
A daily green close above 20285 shows bulls confident and in control.
A daily red close below 19905 strengthens bears and could lead to a quick flush.

Stick to trading level by level as usual.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Maintain above 14265/14140 for focus on 20320/22640+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend determines the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 19955 holds or reclaimed, 20345*/400/615* in play
🐻 Bearish Goal: will determine when weekly trend turns bearish

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: If 19995 or 19955 holds & 20080 reclaimed, 20285*/20345*/400/515*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 19905 fails, 19815/760/555/375*- in play

Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):

If 19995 or 19955 holds, 20040/20080 in play
If 20080 claims, 20265/20285 next
If 20285 claimed, 20345*/375/400*/430* in play
If 20430 claimed, 20495/20515 next

Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):

If 19905 fails, 19815/19760* in play
If 19760 fails, 19700/555*/500* next
If 19500 fails, 19435/400/375* in play
If 19375 fails, 19250/230/190* next

Zoomed-out View:

🐂 Bullish: as long 19905 holds or reclaimed, 20345/400/615+ in play
🐻 Bearish: if 19905 fails to hold, 19815/19760*/375*/190*- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 20040, 20070/80*, 20118, 20160/75*, 20200, 20225*, 20260, 20285/310*, 20345, 20375, 20400*, 20430, 20465, 20495, 20515*, 20580, 20620, 20715*, 20970, 21680*, 21220*

Support: 19995, 19955/45*, 19905/19885*, 19815*, 19795, 19760*, 19700, 19685*, 19625/00, 19555*, 19500, 19435*/400, 19375*, 19285, 19230*, 19190*, 19100/025*, 18975/940*, 18480*, 18410*/390*, 18245/230*

Possible Trade Plans:

Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.

Long Trades:

If price holds 19995 or drops below 19995 say 19975 & quickly claims 19995 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19995 and 20040, 20080*, 20118 and 20175/200 as targets.
If price holds 19955 or drops below 19955 say 19945 & quickly claims 19955 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19955 and 20040, 20080, 20118, 20175/200 as targets.
If price holds 19905 or drops below 19905 say 19885 & quickly claims 19905 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19905 and 19955, 20040 and 20080 as targets.
*If price holds 19685 or drops below 19685 say 19670 & quickly claims 19700 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19685 and 19760, 19795 and 19815 as targets.
If price holds 19625 or drops below 19625 say 19600 & quickly claims 19630 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19625 and 19685, 19760 and 19795 as targets.
If price holds 19435 or drops below 19435 say 19400 & quickly claims 19435 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19435 and 19500, 19555 and 19600 as targets.
*If price holds 19230 or drops below 19230 say 19220 & quickly claims 19230 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19230 and 19285, 19310 and 19375 as targets.
*If price holds 19025 or drops below 19025 say 18995 & quickly claims 19025 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 1925 and 19100, 19190 and 19230 as targets.

Short Trades:
1. On lower time frames if rejection of 20080, 20160/75, 20285/310, 20345 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets.

Red Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

Moving flag levels up than usual for early detection of trend change

Orange Flag: Close below 19905 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 19500 on a red day may suggest a shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 18940 on a red day may indicate potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Analysis:

Due to contract rollover, last week closed in some green.
Changing weekly bias to bullish.
Bulls aren't confident until green day closes above 2085 or at least 2060.5, so adding caution to the weekly bullish bias.
Must-hold level for bulls is near Friday's close, adding caution to the daily bullish bias.
Continued strength in #DXY could mean more downside for #RTY, so adding ample caution to bullish plays until 2085 or at least 2060.5 is claimed on daily and 2050 holds in pullback.
If Friday's bullish move continues on Sunday/Monday, a backtest of 2060.5/2070 is possible.
Strong #DXY is not helping #RTY bulls.
Zoomed out view: #RTY needs a close above 2106 or at least 2060.5 for upside, and a close below 2015 for downside.
2019-2060.5 is a chop/undecided range.
Remember the weekly newsletter for June 10: "Although 1982 is monthly support, if strong bulls at 1998/1991 can close the day green above 2019, the rest of the month could see bullish continuation."
So far, 1998 has held and the day closed above 2019. Let's see if the bullish move continues this month (week).
Above 2033, bulls keep momentum.
Below 2019, bulls enter the pain zone.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend determines the bearish stance.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: as long 2053/2032 holds or reclaimed 2247/2300+ in play (back in play)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2058 or at least 2036, 1982/1960 in play (still not invalidated)

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: If 2039/2033 holds and 2046.2 reclaimed, 60/2080/85/2101/06* in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2033 fails, 2025.7/2019*/15/2006/1999*- in play

Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):

If 2039/33 holds, 2046.2/2058/60.5*in play
If 2060.5 claimed, 2080/2085* in play
If 2085 claimed, 2098/2106* next
If 2106 claimed, 2111/2114/2119* in play
If 2114 claimed, 2124/2130 next

Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):

If 2033 fails, 2025.7/2019* in play
If 2019 fails, 2015/2006* next
If 2006 fails, 1998*/1991* in play
If 1991 fails, 1982*/1978* next
If 1978 fails, 1965/1958* in play

Zoomed-out View:

🐂 Bullish: if 2033 holds, 2060/2085/2106/2111 in play
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2060 or at last 2085, 1982/78 in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 2046, 2050, 2058/60.5*, 2070, 2080*/85*, 2098*, 2106*, 2114, 2119, 2124*, 2130*, 2141.5, 2153.5*
Support: 2039, 2033, 2025.7, 2019*, 2015, 2006*, 1999*, 1998*/1991*, 1985*, 1978*/72*, 1965, 1958*, 1952, 1946*

Green Flags:

Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:

Lime Flag: A close above 2094.5, daily downtrend is in question
1st Green Flag: A close above 2101 on a green day may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: If the market closes above 2114 on a green day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about hold/fail/claim/reject setups that worked

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

TradersNvestor's Actionable Insights

Discussion about this post