Weekly Charts Reading for 6/09- 6/14
Anxious Bulls, Expectant Bears
How’s last week?
As discussed in recent weeks, last week offered great bi-directional trading opportunities.
#ES: Like #NQ, started with a dip, held 5245 support, then turned bullish as expected. Thursday/Friday's pullback has bulls and bears in a holding pattern, likely resolve on Wednesday with CPI & FOMC.
#NQ: Started with a dip, held 18435 support, then turned bullish as expected. After a strong close on Wednesday, Thursday/Friday saw a pullback, leaving bulls and bears in a holding pattern.
#RTY: Bears defended 2101 again on Monday, causing a sharp pullback from 2104. Tuesday saw a strong move down, with a bounce on Wednesday, but turned unexpectedly red on Thursday and Friday.
#YM: Held 38330 support and aimed to close strong green for the week. However, Friday's unexpected pullback resulted in a barely green close. Bulls need to close > 39240, or at least 39165, to gain control.
#DXY: Bulls closed the week strong green, maintaining control. As mentioned before, bears need a weekly close below 103.880 or at least a daily close below it to regain control.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
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Thanks, all!
Week Ahead (6/09 – 6/14)
After CPI & FOMC on Wednesday, expect the market to stop the choppy action and make a more directional move for the rest of the month.
If the supports identified hold, an upside resolution is likely.
#DXY remains the wild card. If it closes below 103.880 before Wednesday, the upside bias gains strong support. Keep an eye on #DXY for market clues before Wednesday's reports.
As always, trade level to level with the right position size and stop loss.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
Monday and Tuesday are pretty quiet on the economic front. All eyes and ears are on next Wednesday's FOMC fund rate, statement, and press conference, which will be the main catalyst for volatility on Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday's PPI and Unemployment Claims could add more whiplash action following the FOMC.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐂
Analysis:
Strong green weekly close, so keeping a bullish bias.
Thursday/Friday: bulls retreated from overhead resistance trendline, adding caution to the bullish bias.
Friday’s green close was just above key support level 5349, maintaining the bullish bias for weekly and daily as long as 5310/5305 holds.
5305 is the last level for bulls to defend.
Above 5329, bulls keep momentum.
Below 5305, bulls enter the pain zone.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Hold above 4420/4350 for focus on 5615/6110+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 5185 holds/reclaimed, 5370/5445 in focus (hit 5370 last week)
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long bears hold 5215, 4815/4805/4702- in play (invalidated)
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 5349 or 5339 holds and 5371 claimed, 5380/5392/5417/5430+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5339 fails, 5329/5310/05*/5299*- in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 5349 or 5339 holds, 5364/5371/5380 in play
If 5380 claimed, 5409/5417* next
If 5417 claimed, 5438/5445* in play
If 5445 claimed, 5455/5470* next
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 5339 fails, 5329/5320 in play
If 5329 fails, 5310/5305*/5299* next
If 5305 fails, 5269/5258 in play
If 5258 fails, 5250/5245* next
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: if 5305 holds or reclaimed (on daily), 5445/5470 in play
🐻 Bearish: if 5305 fails to hold, 5269/5250*/45/17*- in play
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5364, 5371*, 5380*, 5387, 5392*, 5400, 5409*, 5417*, 5430, 5438*, 5445*, 5455, 5470*
Support: 5349, 5339*, 5329*, 5320, 5310*, 5305*, 5299*, 5269*, 5258, 5250*, 5245*, 5237, 5227, 5217**, 5209/5202*
Possible Trade Plans:
Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.
Long Trades:
If price holds 5349 or drops below 5349 say 5346 & quickly claims 5349 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5349 and 5364*, 5371, 5380* and 5409/5417 as targets.
If price holds 5339 or drops below 5339 say 5336 & quickly claims 5339 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5339 and 5349*, 5364, 5371* and 5409/5417 as targets.
If price holds 5329 or drops below 5329 say 5325 & quickly claims 5329 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5329 and 5339*, 5349, 5364* and 5409 as targets.
If price holds 5310 or drops below 5310 say 5308 & quickly claims 5310 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5310 and 5320*, 5329, 5339* as targets.
If price holds 5305 or drops below 5305 say 5298 & quickly claims 5305 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5305 and 5320*, 5329, 5339* as targets.
If price holds 5269 or drops below 5269 say 5267 & quickly claims 5269 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5269 and 5285*, 5299, 5310* as targets.
If price holds 5250 or drops below 5250 say 5245 & quickly claims 5250 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5250 and 5269*, 5285, 5299* as targets.
If price holds 5245 or drops below 5245 say 5242 & quickly claims 5245 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5245 and 5258*, 5269, 5285* as targets.
Short Trades:
On lower time frames if rejection of 5371/76/80/5417 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets.
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As price didn't move significantly, keeping flag levels unchanged
Orange Flag: Close below 5299 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 5245 suggests a potential shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 5205 indicates possible voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
After a good red week, last week bulls continued their march, closing in strong green.
Major move happened on Wednesday; bulls paused on Thursday and Friday.
Weekly bias is now bullish, but daily bias remains bearish.
Bulls should hold 19020 and reclaim 19090 to target 19180/19290 on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday.
These days are quiet on economic reports.
Hence adding caution to the daily bearish bias.
If 18940/20 fails, bears may retest Wednesday's start at 18755/710.
Adding caution to the weekly bullish move.
Bulls need 19020, or at least 18975, to hold and quickly reclaim 19090/19115 on Sunday/Monday.
Bulls must defend 18755/710 in any deeper pullback.
Above 18875, bulls keep momentum.
Below 18780, bulls enter the pain zone.
Bears need to hold 18755/710.
Daily green close above 19090 means bulls are confident and in control.
Daily red close below 18710/695 strengthens bears and could lead to a quick drop.
On a broader view, as long as last week's lows hold (ideally not dropping below 18465), the target remains 19710.
Stick to trading level by level as usual.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Maintain above 14265/14140 for focus on 20320/22640+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend determines the bearish stance.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 16690 holds, 19035/19710/20190 in play (in play)
🐻 Bearish Goal: Bears holding 18350 or at least 18150 may target 16690/16470/16350- (invalidated).
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 19020 or 18975 holds and 19090 reclaimed, 19180/230/290*/330*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 18940 fails, 18875/780/755*/710*/665*- in play
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 19020 or 18975 holds and 19090 claimed, 19145/19180* in play
If 19180 claimed, 19290*/19330* next
If 19330 claimed, 19430*/19475 next
If 19430 claimed, 19535*/19575*/595* in play
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 18975 fails, 18940/920* in play
If 18940 fails, 18755*/710*/695 next
If 18695 fails, 18570*/18545* in play
If 18545 fails, 18410*/18390* next
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 18755 holds or reclaimed, 19180/19430/19710 in play
🐻 Bearish: if 18710 fails to hold, 18575*/545*/410/390*- in play
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 19070/90*, 19115, 19145, 19180*, 19230, 19265/290*, 19330*, 19395, 19430*, 19475, 19535*, 19575/95*
Support: 19020, 18975, 18940/20, 18875, 18825, 19780, 18755*, 18710*/695, 18655, 18620, 18595, 18570*, 18545*, 18515, 18480*, 18410*/390*
Possible Trade Plans:
Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.
Long Trades:
If price holds 19020 or drops below 19020 say 19005 & quickly claims 19020 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 19020 and 19070, 19115, 19145 and 19180 as targets.
If price holds 18975 or drops below 18975 say 18955 & quickly claims 18975 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18975 and 19020, 19070, 19115, 19180 as targets.
If price holds 18940 or drops below 18940 say 18920 & quickly claims 18750 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18940 and 19070, 19145 and 19180 as targets.
If price holds 18875 or drops below 18875 say 18865 & quickly claims 18875 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18875 and 18940, 18975 and 19070 as targets.
If price holds 18755 or drops below 18755 say 18735 & quickly claims 18755 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18755 and 18825, 18875 and 18940 as targets.
If price holds 18710 or drops below 18710 say 18695 & quickly claims 18710 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18710 and 18780, 18825 and 18875 as targets.
If price holds 18570 or drops below 18570 say 18565 & quickly claims 18570 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18570 and 18620, 18665 and 18710 as targets.
If price holds 18545 or drops below 18545 say 18530 & quickly claims 18545 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18545 and 18595, 18620 and 18665 as targets.
Short Trades:
On lower time frames if rejection of 19090, 19180, 19330/19395 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets.
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Moving flag levels up than usual for early detection of trend change
Orange Flag: Close below 18695 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 18390 on a red day may suggest a shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 18160 on a red day may indicate potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Last week, bulls needed to claim 2101.
Bulls took the price to 2104 but failed to claim 2101 on Monday.
They were rejected at 2101 and closed the day in red, foiling all bullish expectations for the week.
Wednesday's recovery created some bullish hopes.
However, Thursday's strong move down quashed those hopes again.
Friday's flush continued Thursday's move.
Hence, changing bias to bearish on both weekly and daily.
Strong #DXY is not helping bulls either.
Based on the weekly close, as long as bears hold 2060 or 2085, 1982 is in play.
If 2024/2028 holds, 2060/2085 are likely back-test levels.
Although 1982 is a monthly support level, if strong bulls at 1998/1991 close the day green above 2019, the rest of the month could see bullish continuation.
Above 2024, bulls keep momentum.
Below 2019, bulls enter the pain zone.
Bears need to hold 2060/2085.
A daily green close above 2060 means bulls are confident; above 2085, bulls are in control.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend determines the bearish stance.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish: as long 2053/2032 holds or reclaimed 2247/2300+ in play (invalidated)
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2058 or at least 2036, 1982/1960 in play
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 2028/2024 holds and 2041 reclaimed, 2058/60/2080/85/98 in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2019 fails, 1998/91*/1982*/78*- in play
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 2028/2024 holds, 2038/41* in play
If 2041 claimed, 2053/2060* next
If 2060 claimed, 2080/2085* in play
If 2085 claimed, 2098/2105* next
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 2019 fails, 1998*/1991* in play
If 1991 fails, 1982*/1978* next
If 1978 fails, 1965/1958* in play
If 1958 fails, 1952/1946* next
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: if 2024 holds, 2060/2085/2098 in play
🐻 Bearish: as long bears hold 2060 or at last 2085, 1982/78 in play
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 2038/2041*, 2053, 2058/60*, 2070, 2080*/85*, 2098*, 2105*, 2114, 2119, 2124*, 2130*, 2141.5, 2153.5*
Support: 2028, 2024, 2019*, 2012*/2009, 1998*/1991*, 1985*, 1978*/72*, 1965, 1958*, 1952, 1946*
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Keeping flag levels closer than usual for early detection of trend change
Orange Flag: A close below 2094.5 questions the daily uptrend. (triggered May 22nd)
1st Red Flag: A close below 2058 on a red day may hint at a shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias. (triggered May 23rd)
2nd Red Flag: A close below 2047.8 on a red day may suggest potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias. (triggered June 7th)
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about hold/fail/claim/reject setups that worked
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Don’t over leverage. Manage Risk. Have a great week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.