Weekly Charts Reading for 5/28- 5/31
Weekly Charts Reading for 5/28- 5/31
Short week, key moves
How’s last week?
#ES:
Bulls continued their march, reaching new all-time highs.
As expected, the 5347 resistance and overhead trend line were precise hurdles last week.
Bulls defended 5305 and 5370 levels.
First slightly red week in the past five weeks.
Market offered good bi-directional play opportunities, especially on Thursday.
All dips were bought, with bulls defending key support levels.
#NQ:
Bulls continued their march, reaching new all-time highs.
All dips were bought, with bulls defending key support levels.
#RTY:
Bulls took a breather.
Bears pushed the price below the key 2047.8 support, but bulls defended adequately.
Overall:
A mixed week: #ES and #NQ made new highs, while #RTY and #YM moved downward.
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
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Thanks, all!
Week Ahead (5/28 – 5/31)
Shorter week
Expect more two-way trading opportunities in the coming weeks.
Last week, #ES and #NQ bulls focused on defending key support levels.
#ES bulls need to move at least 50 points and #NQ bulls need to move 250 points to maintain their four-week effort.
Poor performance from #YM and #RTY bulls last week dampens expectations for next week.
Of all four index futures, #YM seems the weakest.
As anticipated, #DXY was weak last week, but bears couldn't push it below 103.880. Bulls took it back to 105.119.
On Friday, #DXY retreated from its high, pausing its upward momentum. Bears need to push it below 103.880 quickly.
105.050 is now key resistance that $USD bears must defend.
If #DXY continues its decline from Friday, #RTY bulls are likely to hold their Friday lows and retest 2101 and 2111 resistance levels.
This will also help #ES and #NQ bulls continue their march to new all-time highs and the levels noted in their respective sections.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
This short week is packed with the usual economic reports and a few FOMC speakers at various events. Thursday and Friday are especially noteworthy with the release of GDP, Unemployment Claims, and Core PCE reports
Note about charts:
Check out the daily chart links provided for a closer look at the detailed levels.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐂
Analysis:
First barely red week.
Friday's green close held key 5286 support, maintaining a bullish bias for weekly and daily.
Key support levels last week: 5305 and 5270/68. Bulls successfully defended, negating April's bear pressure.
Bulls need to close above 5349 to continue upward movement, so caution is added to the bullish bias.
This week:
Key support levels: 5298/5286
Immediate resistance: 5326/29
If last week's low fails, 5248/41 will likely be tested.
A red day close below 5266 triggers an orange flag.
The bullish move on May 15 is crucial for the next leg up. Bulls must defend 5271/5266 during pullbacks to keep 5409/5417 in play.
Bulls' tasks for next week:
Hold 5286 in case of deeper pullbacks.
Move above 5370 to target 5417/5438/45.
Bears need to push below last week's lows and prevent 5266 from being reclaimed on the daily chart.
Above 5298, bulls keep momentum. Below 5286, bulls enter the pain zone.
Trade Plan:
Long Trades: If 5286 holds and 5340 is claimed, next targets are 5377/5409+.
Short Trades: If 5286 fails, expect tests of 5271/5266. If these fail, next targets are 5248/41, then 5217/09, and finally 5195/89-.
As always, trade level to level.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Hold above 4420/4350 for focus on 5615/6110+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 5185 holds/reclaimed, 5370/5445 in focus (almost hit 5370 last week)
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long bears hold 5215, 4815/4805/4702- in play (invalidated)
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 5316 or 5305 hold and claims 5329, 5366/5377/5409+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5305 fails, 5398/5286*/71/66/48/41- in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 5316 or 5305 holds, 5326/5329*/5340* in play
If 5340 claimed, 5358/5366* next
If 5366 claimed, 5377* in play
If 5377 claimed, 5387/5392* in play
If 5392 claimed, 5400/5409*/5417* next
If 5417 claimed, 5430/5438*/5445* in play
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 5316 fails, 5305* in play
If 5305 fails, 5298*/93* next
If 5298 fails, 5286* in play
If 5286* fails, 5271*/5266** in play
If 5266 fails, 5258/5248* next
If 5248 fails, 5241*/5233 in play
If 5233 fails, 5217*/5209*/5205 next
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: if 5336 reclaimed (on daily), 5409/5417 in play
🐻 Bearish: Failure to hold 5266 targets 5241/5217/5209/5205-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5326/29*, 5340, 5349, 5358, 5366*, 5377*, 5387, 5392*, 5400, 5409*, 5417*, 5430, 5438, 5445*
Support: 5316, 5305, 5298/93*, 5286*, 5271*, 5266*, 5258, 5248, 5241*, 5233, 5217*, 5209/5205*, 5195*/5189*, 5182*, 5166*, 5156, 5146, 5130/5127*, 5114, 5104/5099*
Possible Trade Plans:
Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but on lower time frame signs of 5316 holding, then consider long trade with SL below local low and 5329 or 5340 & 5349 as targets
If Sunday opens up & start pulling back from 5326 or lower, wait to see if after gap fill of 5320, price is holding that level. Now two choices, go long upon seeing 5320 holding with SL below 5320 & 5329, 5340 & 5349 as targets OR wait for 5326/29 to be reclaimed and go long.
If price holds 5298 or drops below 5298 say 5293 & quickly claims 5298 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5298 and 5316*, 5325, 5329* as targets.
If price holds 5286 or drops below 5286 say 5283 & quickly claims 5286 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5286 and 5398, 5305 and 5316*, 5329* as targets.
If price holds 5270 or 5266 or drops below 5266 or 5266 say to 5266 or 5258 & quickly claims 5270 or 5266 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5270 or 5266 and 5287/95*, 5305* and 5312 as targets.
If price holds 5241 or drops below 5241 (say 5237) & quickly reclaims 5241 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5241 & 5248/58, 5266 and 5270 as targets.
Short Trades:
On lower time frames if rejection of 5349/5377/5417 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets.
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As price didn't move significantly, keeping flag levels unchanged
Orange Flag: Close below 5266 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 5217 suggests a potential shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 5099 indicates possible voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Another green weekly close.
Five green weeks in a row.
Maintaining a bullish bias with added caution.
Key bullish price actions: May 15th and May 20th.
Bulls must defend 18710/18680 in case of deeper retracement.
If 18680 fails, May 20th lows 18635/18620 will be retested and may be weaker.
If 18620 fails to hold on the daily, 18410/18390 comes into play.
Key levels to watch: 18860, 18710/18680, 18620/18568, 18410/18390.
Above 18710, bulls keep momentum.
Below 18710, bulls enter the pain zone.
Stick to trading level by level as usual.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Maintain above 14265/14140 for focus on 20320/22640+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend determines the bearish stance.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 16690 holds, 19035/19710/20190 in play (in play)
🐻 Bearish Goal: Bears holding 18350 or at least 18150 may target 16690/16470/16350- (invalidated).
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 18860 or 18835 holds and 18930 reclaimed, 19035/19170/19330/19395*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 18835 18680 fails, 18710/680*/620/18555*/482*- in play
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 18860 or 18835 holds and 18930 claimed, 19005/19035* in play
If 19035 claimed, 19075/19115 next
If 19115 claimed, 19135/19170* in play
If 19170 claimed, 19230/19290* next
If 19290 claimed, 19330*/ 19395* in play
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 18835 fails, 18710/1680* in play
If 18680 fails, 18620*/18568*/18555* next
If 18555 fails, 18510/18482* next
If 18482 fails, 18445/410*/390* in play
If 18390 fails, 18325/18290 next
If 18325 fails, 18260/18230* in play
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 18860 holds or reclaimed, 19035/19170/19395+ in play
🐻 Bearish: if 18835 fails to hold, 18710/680*/555*/482*/410/390*- in play
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 18905/18930*, 18985/19005, 19035*/19075*, 19115, 19170, 19230, 19290, 19330*, 19395*, 19440
Support: 18860/18835*, 18815, 18750, 18710/18680*, 18620*, 18568/55*, 18482, 18445, 18410*/18390*, 18325
Possible Trade Plans:
Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but on lower time frame see signs of 18860 holding (if dips near 18855 & reclaim of 186670), then consider long trade with SL below 18860 and 18905, 18930 and 19005 as targets
If Sunday opens up & start pulling back from 18885/95, wait to see if after gap fill of 18870, price is holding that level. Now two choices, go long upon seeing 18870 holding with SL below 18860 & 18930, 19005 & 19030 as targets OR wait for 18905 to be reclaimed and go long.
If price holds 18750 or drops below 18750 say 18735 & quickly claims 18750 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18750 and 18815, 18835 and 18860 as targets.
If price holds 18680 or drops below 18680 & quickly reclaims 18680 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 18680 & 18710, 18750, 18815 as targets.
If price holds 18620 (if dip near 18615 & reclaim of 18635), then consider long trade with SL below 18620 and 18665, 18710 and 18750 as targets
If price holds 18410 or drops below 18410 & quickly reclaims 18410 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 18410 & 18482, 18510, 18565 as targets.
If price holds 18390 or drops below 18390 (to say 18370) & quickly reclaims 18410 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 18390 & 18445, 18482, 18510, 18568 as targets.
If price holds 18230 on lower time frame or quickly reclaims 18260 after quick drop to 18225 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 18260 & 18325, 18390 & 18410 as targets
Short Trades:
On lower time frames if rejection of 19075, 19170, 19330/19395 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets.
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Moving flag levels up than usual for early detection of trend change
Orange Flag: Close below 18620 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 18390 on a red day may suggest a shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 18160 on a red day may indicate potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Good red week after 4 green weeks in a row.
Changing bias to bearish on weekly.
Last week, rejection of 2124 caused pause in bullish move.
Caution for bullish bias until 2130 claimed on daily.
Price never reached above 2119, let alone claim 2130.
Red Wednesday and Thursday triggered orange and first red flags.
Friday's green close brings bullish hopes to retest 2101 & 2111.
Must reclaim on daily to continue bullish momentum from Friday.
Daily bias remains bullish with caution added to bearish bias.
Rejection of 2111 or 2101 on daily with red day could bring more bears.
May bring 2038 or 2019 into play.
Claiming 2111 on daily changes weekly bias to bullish
Bulls have 2 tasks next week:
Not lose momentum of Friday by defending 2071/2062.
Reclaim 2101 and 2111 quickly.
Bears need:
Defend 2101 or 2111.
Push price below 2056.
Above 2062, bulls keep hopes.
Below 2056, bulls enter pain zone.
If bulls successfully defend 2062 and reclaim 2111, last Thursday's low could mark higher low.
2169/2209 could be the next leg's target.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend determines the bearish stance.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish: as long 2053/2032 holds or reclaimed 2247/2300+ in play (still in play)
🐻 Bearish Goal: Bears holding 2058 or at least 2036 may target 1905/1810 (invalidated)
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 2071/2062 holds and 2111 reclaims, 2030/2150/53.5*+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2056 fails, 2045.4/2038/2019- in play
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 2071 holds, 2085/2097/2101* in play
If 2101 claimed, 2111*/2119* next
If 2119 claimed, 2124*/2130* next
If 2130 claimed, 2141.5/2150.5/2153.5* in play
If 2153.5 claimed, 2163/2169** next
If 2169 claimed, 2176.5 in play
If 2176.5 claimed, 2190/2198 next
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 2071 fails, 2062*/2056* next
If 2056 fails, 2045.4* in play
If 2045.4 fails, 2038.5 next
If 2038.5 fails, 2025/2019* in play
If 2019 fails, 2012/2009 next
If 2009 fails, 1998/1991* in play
If 1991 fails, 1978/1972* next
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: if 2111 reclaimed, 2190/2198 in focus
🐻 Bearish: if 2056 fails, 2045.5/2025/2019- in play
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 2085, 2097, 2101, 2111*, 2119, 2124*, 2130*, 2141.5, 2153.5*, 2163/2169*, 2176.5, 2190*, 2198, 2209.5
Support: 2071, 2062*, 2056*, 2045.4, 2038.5*, 2025, 2019*, 2012*/2009, 1998*/1991*, 1985*, 1978*/72*, 1965, 1958*
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Keeping flag levels closer than usual for early detection of trend change
Orange Flag: A close below 2094.5 questions the daily uptrend. (triggered May 22nd)
1st Red Flag: A close below 2058 on a red day may hint at a shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias. (triggered May 23rd)
2nd Red Flag: A close below 2047.8 on a red day may suggest potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about hold/fail/claim/reject setups that worked
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Don’t over leverage. Manage Risk. Have a great week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.