Weekly Charts Reading for 5/20- 5/24
Summer's Hazy Trek
How’s last week?
#ES:
Bulls keep pushing, hitting new all-time highs (ATH)
Did not close above April’s ATH
Buyers stepping in on every dip, defending crucial support levels
#NQ:
Bulls pushing higher, setting new ATH
Unable to claim March's ATH
Buyers stepping in on every dip, defending key support levels
#RTY:
Bulls still charging ahead, but lagging behind other indices
Stalled at critical resistance level of 2130, unable to claim
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Quick update: It seems reaching 500 subscribers might take a bit longer than I hoped. But I'm not giving up just yet. I'll keep publishing, though I might take more breaks along the way. 😀
Big thanks to all of you who've been cheering me on. Your support means a lot!
Thanks, all!
Week Ahead (5/20 – 5/24)
After another strong green close this week, more two-way trading opportunities likely to be present in coming weeks.
Bulls have two tasks ahead:
Push prices up to safe distance to maintain the gains of the past four weeks.
Protect last week's open and low price levels to prevent deeper pullbacks.
I reckon #ES and #NQ bulls need to climb at least 80-100 and 350-400 points respectively for safety.
If #YM and #RTY bulls join the rally, we might see a accelerated move in the first few days of the week.
While #DXY appears weak, bears need to push it below 103.880 and close the day in red. Otherwise, a USD upswing may introduce uncertainty in equities, especially with #RTY.
While we expect the bullish momentum to continue, it's crucial to acknowledge that we haven't seen any major down move since April 30th. However, it's wise to remain vigilant for potential rug pulls. For that, I'll be closely monitoring the second support levels each day. As long as our key support holds, we're less likely to experience a sudden reversal.
Zooming out for quick trade ideas:
#YM_F: Look for holds above 39995 targeting 40350, 40520 & 40655.
#ES_F: Watch for holds above 5318/5305 targeting 5377, 5409 & 5417.
#NQ_F: Keep an eye on holds above 18620/18568 targeting 18870, 18950 & 19035.
#RTY_F: Keep tabs on holds above 2100/2095 targeting 2153, 2169 & 2190.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
We've got a solid lineup of FOMC speakers all week, plus the FOMC minutes dropping on Wednesday, and the usual suspects like Unemployment Claims and Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. Oh, and don't forget the Consumer Sentiment report coming in on Friday. Looks like next week's calendar is loaded with potential for some market ups and downs!
Note about charts:
Check out the daily chart links provided for a closer look at the detailed levels.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐂
Analysis:
Strong bullish close for the week.
Friday's green close maintained crucial support at 5305.
Bullish bias persists for both weekly and daily outlook.
Caution warranted as it approaches ATH without successfully claiming April's high.
Near overhead trendline from Jan 2022 and April 2024 highs around 5366/5377. Claiming this may target 5409/5417.
Bulls need to swiftly claim 5336, preferably holding 5327 Sun overnight, to target 5247.
Key bullish move on May 15th is key for the next leg up. Hence bulls must defend 5270/5266 in deeper pullbacks to keep 5409/5417 in play
5217 stands as the last defense if 5266 fails to hold.
Wednesday's bullish move easily skipped the level of 5305 from where the April flush started.
Friday's pullback to 5305 mitigated additional bearish pressure, at least temporarily.
For the next week, bullish above 5305, and below it enters the pain zone.
Momentum is upheld above 5318 for bulls, while dropping below 5305 signals bearish territory.
A red day close below 5266 would trigger an orange flag, potentially targeting 5217/5209.
A quick dip below 5266 followed by a fast reclaim is still bullish.
General trade plan: Long trades if 5305 holds and 5336 is claimed, targeting 5356/77/5409+.
Short trades if 5305 fails, targeting 5270/5266, then 5248/41, and further down.
Maintain a level-by-level approach for trading strategies.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Hold above 4420/4350 for focus on 5615/6110+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate the bearish stance.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 5185 holds/reclaimed, 5370/5445 in focus
🐻 Bearish Goal: Bears holding 5215 could target 4815/4805/4702- (invalidated)
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: Holding 5305 and claiming 5336 targets 5356/5377/5409+
🐻 Bearish: If 5305 fails to hold, 5287/70/48/41- in play
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 5327 or 5318 holds and 5336 is claimed, target 5347/5356*
Claiming 5356 targets 5366/5377*
If 5377 claimed, targets 5387/5392*
Claiming 5392 targets 5400/5409*/5417*
Claiming 5417 targets 5430/5438*/5445*
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 5318 fails, target 5311/5305*
Failure to hold 5305, targets 5292/5287*
If 5287 fails, targets 5280/5270*/5266*
If 5266 fails, target 5258/5248*
Failure to hold 5248 targets 5241*/5233
If 5233 fails, 5217*/5209*/5205 in play
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: Reclaiming 5336 targets 5409/5417.
🐻 Bearish: Failure to hold 5266 targets 5241/5217/5209/5205-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5336*, 5342/47, 5356, 5366/70, 5377*, 5387, 5392*, 5400, 5409*, 5417*, 5430, 5438, 5445*
Support: 5327/5318*, 5311, 5305*, 5295/5287*, 5270, 5266*, 5258, 5248, 5241*, 5233, 5217*, 5209/5205*, 5195*/5189*, 5182*, 5166*, 5156, 5146, 5130/5127*, 5114, 5104/5099*
Possible Trade Plans:
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but on lower time frame signs of 5327 or 5318 holding, then consider long trade with SL below local low and 5336 or 5342 & 5347 as targets
If Sunday opens up & start pulling back from 5333 or lower, wait to see if after gap fill of 5327, price is holding that level. Now two choices, go long upon seeing 5327 holding with SL below 5327 & 5336, 5342 & 5347 as targets OR wait for 5333 to be reclaimed and go long.
If price holds 5292 or drops below 5295 say 5286 & quickly claims 5292 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5292 and 5305, 5312*, 5318 and 5327 as targets.
If price holds 5270 or 5266 or drops below 5266 or 5266 say to 5266 or 5258 & quickly claims 5270 or 5266 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5270 or 5266 and 5287/95*, 5305* and 5312 as targets.
If price holds 5241 or drops below 5241 (say 5237) & quickly reclaims 5241 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5241 & 5248/58, 5266 and 5270 as targets.
If price holds 5217 or drops below 5217 (say 5213) & quickly reclaims 5217 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5217 & 5233, 5241/5248 and 5258 as targets
Short Trades:
If Sunday opens up but lower time frame signs of 5336 rejection appears, consider short trade with SL above 5336 (or local top) and 5327 and 5218 as targets (quick short trade - can take profit before target hits)
On lower time frames if rejection of 5347/49 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with 5336/33 and 5327 as targets
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Keeping flag levels closer than usual for early detection of trend change
Orange Flag: Close below 5266 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 5217 suggests a potential shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 5099 indicates possible voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Notable green weekly close.
Despite setting new ATH, previous highs from March 2024 remain unclaimed.
Hence maintaining a bullish bias but with added caution
Caution is also added as approaching overhead trendline from highs of Nov 2021 & March 2024. Resistance at 18835/18870. Once claimed, targeting 18970+
Wednesday's green day close above 18568 crucially countered April's slide.
Levels from Wednesday's open and low are pivotal for bulls to safeguard during deep retracements.
Key levels to watch: 18568, 18410 & 18390.
Bulls maintain momentum above 18568, while dipping below bulls enter pain zone.
Continue trading level by level for consistent approach.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Maintain above 14265/14140 for focus on 20320/22640+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend determines the bearish stance.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: Sustain above 16690 for focus on 19035/19710/20190 (so far in play)
🐻 Bearish Goal: Bears holding 18350 or at least 18150 may target 16690/16470/16350- (invalidated).
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: Holding 18620 or 18568 and reclaiming 18710 targets 18750/18870/18970+.
🐻 Bearish: If 18568 fails, may lead to 18482/410/390/260/230-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 18620 or 18568 holds and 18665 is claimed, target 18710/18750*
Claiming 18750 targets 18790/18335*
If 18335 claimed, 18870*/18895 in play
If 18895 claimed, 18925 next
If 18925 is claimed, target 18950/18970*
Claiming 18970 targets 19000/19035/19075
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 18568/55 fails, target 18510/18482.
Further failure targets 18445/18410/18390.
If 18390 fails, target 18325/18290.
Subsequent failure targets 18260/18230.
If 18230 fails, target 18160/18130.
Further breakdown targets 18105/18050.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding or reclaiming 18568 targets 18970/19035+.
🐻 Bearish: Failure to hold 18568 may target 18410/390/260/230-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 18710/18750*, 18790, 18835, 18870/18895*, 18925, 18950/18970*, 19000, 19035*/19075*, 19115, 19170, 19230*, 19290, 19330*, 19395*
Support: 18620*, 18568/55*, 18482, 18445, 18410*/18390*, 18325, 18260/18230*, 18160*/18130, 18105, 18050*, 17990*, 17930, 17890*, 17805*, 17745*/17720*
Possible Trade Plans:
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but on lower time frame see signs of 18620 holding (ideally dip near 18615 & reclaim of 18625), then consider long trade with SL below 18620 and 18665, 18710 and 18750 as targets
If Sunday opens up & start pulling back from 18655/65, wait to see if after gap fill of 18634, price is holding that level. Now two choices, go long upon seeing 18634 holding with SL below 18625 & 18665, 18710 & 18750 as targets OR wait for 18665 to be reclaimed and go long.
If price holds 18568 or drops below 18568 say 18555 & quickly claims 18568 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18568 and 18620, 18665 and 18710 as targets.
If price holds 18410 or drops below 18410 & quickly reclaims 18410 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 18410 & 18482, 18510, 18565 as targets.
If price holds 18390 or drops below 18390 (to say 18370) & quickly reclaims 18390 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 18390 & 18445, 18482, 18510, 18568 as targets.
If price holds 18260 on lower time frame or quickly reclaims 18260 after quick drop to 18225 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 18260 & 18325, 18390 & 18410 as targets
If price holds 18160 on lower time frame or quickly reclaims 18160 after quick drop to 18130 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 18160 & 18230, 18260 and 18325 as targets
If price holds 17990 on lower time frame or quickly reclaims 17990 after quick drop to 17970 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 17990 & 18050, 18105 and 18160 as targets
Short Trades:
If Sunday opens up but below 18625 and on lower time frame signs of failing 18615 support appears, consider short trade with SL above 18620 and 18568 and 18510* as targets
On lower time frames if rejection of 18750, 18870/18895 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets.
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Keeping flag levels closer than usual for early detection of trend change
Orange Flag: Close below 18390 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Close below 18160 on a red day may suggest a shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Close below 17720 on a red day may indicate potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Despite a solid green weekly close, Thursday's rejection of 2124 paused the robust bullish momentum from the previous week.
Maintaining a bullish bias for both weekly and daily, though exercising caution until 2130 is claimed on the daily chart.
Claiming 2124 marks the initial step for the bulls.
Wednesday's green day close above 2114 was pivotal.
Thus open and low levels from Wednesday are crucial for bullish defense.
Key levels to monitor: 2100, 2097, & 2094.5.
Bulls maintain momentum above 2100, while dipping below signals a challenging phase.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend determines the bearish stance.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: Maintaining above 2053/2032 targets 2247/2300+ (back in play).
🐻 Bearish Goal: Bears holding 2058 or at least 2036 may target 1905/1810 (invalidated)
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: Holding 2100/2097 and reclaiming 2124 targets 2150/53.5/63/2169*+.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 2094.5 may lead to 2065/2058/52/2047.8-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 2100 or 2097 holds, target 2111/2117*
Claiming 2117 targets 2124* /2130* next
Subsequent claim of 2130 targets 2141.5/2150.5/2153.5*
If 2153.5 is claimed, target 2163/2169**
Claiming 2169 targets 2176.5.
Subsequent claim of 2176.5 targets 2190/2198.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 2094.5 fails, target 2086 / 2071
If 2071 fails, 2065* / 2058* in play
If 2058 fails, target 2052 / 2047.8*
Subsequent failure of 2047.8 targets 2038
If 2038 fails, 2024 / 2019 next
If 2019 fails, target 2012 / 2009
If 2009 fails, 1998 / 1991 in play
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding or reclaiming 2095 targets 2190/2198 (back in play).
🐻 Bearish: Failure to hold 2094.5 may target 2065/2058/2047.8/2024/2019-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 2111/2117*, 2124*, 2130*, 2141.5, 2153.5*, 2163/2169*, 2176.5, 2190*, 2198, 2209.5*
Support: 2100*/2097, 2094.5*, 2086, 2071, 2065* / 2062, 2058*, 2052, 2047.8*, 2038*, 2024, 2019*, 2012* / 2009, 1998* / 1991*, 1985*, 1978*/72*, 1965, 1958*
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Keeping flag levels closer than usual for early detection of trend change
Orange Flag: A close below 2094.5 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 2058 on a red day may hint at a shift in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: A close below 2047.8 on a red day may suggest potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about hold/fail/claim/reject setups that worked
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Don’t over leverage. Manage Risk. Have a great week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.