Weekly Charts Reading for 4/8- 4/12
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How’s last week?
ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures):
Last week's outlook:
Predicted if 5273 fails, downside targets at 5233/5194/5182.
What happened:
Tuesday: Failed to hold 5273, hit 5233 (5235 low), recovered on Wednesday and overnight.
Thursday: Tested 5308 but rejected, hitting 5194 (5191.5 low), then recovered.
Friday: Bounced off 4273, back-tested 5273, then pulled back.
Conclusion: 5273 was a solid bear level for the week.
NQ (Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures):
Bulls needed to claim 18568 and 18625.
Monday fell short (18619 high), Thursday precisely rejected 18568, plunging near March 18 lows.
RTY (Russell 2000 E-mini Futures):
Last Sunday held immediate support at 2086.7.
Attempted to test 2162.5 & 2169 (2167 high), failed to hold 2152.5 support, dived to test first key monthly support, holding so far.
All levels posted worked precisely;
Since the actual price went notably below the predicted bearish levels for #RTY, further downward levels had to be looked up in the daily chart.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
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Week Ahead (4/8 – 4/12)
CPI and FOMC minutes on Wed are crucial for next week's market moves.
Sunday/Monday might carry over Friday's momentum, while Tuesday could be about contemplating the next move before Wednesday's events.
Last Thursday hinted that bulls might take a breather without relinquishing control entirely.
Next week could determine if bulls are ready to cede short-term control or not.
Many are eyeing bearish engulfing weekly candles for #ES #YM and #RTY, contemplating bearish scenarios.
Despite bearish signals, key support levels are holding, though bears have stepped down a level.
For bulls, it hinges on whether bears can maintain Thursday's highs or lose their grip.
My orange flag levels triggered, but recovery actions kicked in the next day.
As I've been saying for weeks, until they hold their respective red flag levels next week, I see it as a healthy pullback for the bulls, regardless of the speed of the descent.
For bullish trades next week, would be wise to take profits level by level at least until Thursday’s highs claimed on daily.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
Next week starts off with a calm Monday and Tuesday, no big events lined up. But things get spicy on Wednesday with the CPI report in the morning followed by the FOMC meeting in the afternoon. Then Thursday rolls in with PPI & Unemployment claims, plus a 30-year bond auction, keeping fund managers on their toes. Friday wraps it up with the Consumer Sentiment report. Definitely expecting more action on Wednesday and Thursday, so brace for some volatility. As usual, these events tend to shake up the market a bit, so hold onto your hats!
Note about charts:
Check out the daily chart links provided for a closer look at the detailed levels. You'll see how perfectly the Fibonacci levels played out for #ES_F, #NQ_F, and #RTY_F.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Despite the market's bounce on Friday, it marked the first strong red weekly close since January, indicating a shift in sentiment.
Hence changing weekly bias to bearish but daily bullish
Caution is added to weekly bearish as the market still holds onto the first weekly support level at 5182. Caution is added to daily bullish bias because Thursday's close triggered the orange flag, emphasizing the importance of reclaiming levels at 5288 and 5308 for bullish momentum.
The current bearish pressure persists until the market closes above 5308 or at least 5288.
Rejection from key levels such as 5265, 5273, 5288, or 5308 could trigger a revisit of lower targets like 5211, 5205, or 5195.
If 5195 fails to hold, a swift drop to 5186 or 5182 is likely, with potential for a rapid recovery back to 5195, possibly signaling bullish strength.
However, if 5182 fails to hold without a subsequent failed breakdown setup from 5167, it could signify a continuation of the downward trend with lower highs and lower lows.
Considering the potential scenarios for the upcoming week, one possibility is that bulls attempt to hold 5245 and aim to reclaim levels at 5273, 5288, and 5308 sequentially.
Alternatively, bulls might first test levels around 5265/5272, face rejection, and then move down to test 5245/5238.
If then 5238 fails to hold (likely), further downside towards 5211/5205 is expected, but a quick reclamation of 5226 could signal bullish intent, aiming to test levels at 5288, 5296, and 5308.
It's crucial to note that bullish commitment remains doubtful until a daily close above 5308 is achieved.
On the bearish side, a failure to hold 5182 on a daily basis could lead to a deeper decline towards 5132/5122 or even 5095. The pace of this descent remains uncertain.
After failing to maintain the 5182 level daily, a back test of 5195/5205 or even 5211 is plausible. However, if these levels are rejected, followed by another failure to hold 5182, a swift downward move could ensue.
As in the previous weeks, it's essential for bulls to reclaim 5308 first to demonstrate intent and 5317 to signify commitment.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 5185 holds/reclaimed, 5370/5445 in focus
🐻 Bearish Goal: will determine when weekly trend turns bearish
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 5245/5238 holds and claims 5308, 5317/5329/5345/5353 in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5169 fails, 5145/5112/5090- in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If the support at 5245/5238 holds, 5273/5288/5308 next
Upon successfully claiming the 5308 level, the next targets on the radar is 5317/5329
Once 5329 is claimed, the focus then shifts to the 5337/5345/5353.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 5238 fails to hold, 5211/5205/5195 would be the target
If 5195 fails, the next support levels to consider is 5186/5182/5167
If 5167 fails, 5157/5132/27- becomes the downside targets.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 bullish: if 5317 reclaimed, 5345/5353/5377 in play
🐻 bearish: if 5182 fails to hold, 5167/5132/5127/5095- in play
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5273, 5288*, 5303/08*, 5317, 5329*, 5337, 5345*, 5353*, 5366, 5377*
Support: 5245/5238, 5226, 5211/5205*, 5195*, 5186/5182*, 5167/57*, 5145, 5132/27*, 5122, 5112, 5095/86*, 5070/60**
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
No changes in flag levels
Orange Flag: Daily uptrend questioned with a close below 5233 (triggered on Apr 4th).
1st Red Flag: Short-term weekly uptrend bias in question with a close below 5182 on a red day.
2nd Red Flag: Potential voiding of short-term weekly uptrend bias if the market closes below 5084 on a red day.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Last week concluded with a red close following a rapid flush on Thursday, testing the immediate weekly support at 18050. Friday witnessed bulls attempting to recover lost ground, but momentum stalled around 18400.
Despite the bullish efforts, price action on Friday's latter half saw a stall at 18400, followed by a drop to 18251.25 (with 18255 serving as intraday support). The day ended with a defense and closure at 18311.
Consequently, the daily bias shifts to bullish while maintaining a bearish weekly outlook.
Caution is warranted for the daily bullish bias due to Thursday's move triggering the orange flag. Until 18568 is claimed on a daily basis, bearish pressure remains.
Similarly, caution accompanies the weekly bearish bias as key 18050 level still holding.
Thursday's failure to maintain 18530 and 18505 led to a significant downward movement to 18050. It's probable that these levels will be revisited.
Sustained upward momentum for bulls requires the daily reclaim of 18568. Reclaiming 18505 would bolster bullish confidence.
Notably, in the week of March 25, bulls required reclaiming 18625, and last week 18568 needed to be claimed. Indicating bears are pushing resistance levels down
Market movement seldom occurs in a linear fashion, with Thursday afternoon being an exception to the norm.
Reclaiming 18568 on a daily basis may prompt a shift to a cautious bullish weekly bias.
Furthermore, if 18568 is reclaimed, holding 18530 in subsequent pullbacks is crucial to maintain momentum; otherwise, choppy conditions may prevail.
Immediate support lies at 18268, which bulls must defend to back test levels at 18350/18400/18505/18530/18568, presenting the first scenario for Sunday/Monday trading.
Alternatively, rejection of 18350/18400 overnight, coupled with a failure of 18268, could signal downside targets at 18175/18145/18100.
In the latter scenario, if overnight levels at 18175 or at least 18145 holds, Monday could witness a rebound towards 18535/18568.
A breakdown below 18050 could facilitate a swifter and deeper descent for bears.
On the daily chart, failure at 18050 could trigger further downside towards 17720/17675 or even 17560 (possibly in the same week).
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 14265/14140 holds, targets of 20320/22640 remain in focus.
🐻 Bearish: Trend determination hinges on the monthly trend turning bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: As long as 16690 holds, targets of 19035/19710/20190 remain feasible.
🐻 Bearish Goal: Weekly trend determines the potential transition to bearish sentiment.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: Holding 18268 and reclaiming 18568 could bring targets of 18625/18695/18790+ into play.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 18268 could lead to downside targets at 18175/18065/50-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 18268 holds, targets of 18350/18400 are anticipated.
Upon reclaiming 18400, levels of 18535/18568 come into focus.
Subsequently reclaiming 18568 could propel prices towards 18625/18690/18735.
Once 18690 is reclaimed, targets extend to 18790/18820.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
Failure at 18268 would bring targets of 18227/18175/18145 into consideration.
If 18145 fails, downside targets of 18100/18065/18050 are viable.
A breach of 18050 opens up targets at 18005/17960/17915.
Further failure at 17915 would extend targets to 17860/17825-.
Zoomed-out View:
Bullish: As long as 18050 holds or is reclaimed, targets of 19035+ remain viable.
Bearish: Failure to hold 18050 could trigger targets at 17860/17825/17675-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 18350/18400*, 18460, 18515/35*, 18568*, 18603/18625, 18695, 18735, 18790, 18820, 18870*, 18925, 19000, 19035/19075*
Support: 18268, 18227, 18175/18145*, 18100, 18065/18050*, 18005, 17960/17915*, 17860/17825*, 17785, 17720/17675*, 17575/60*
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
No changes in flag levels.
Orange Flag: A close below 18225 questions the daily uptrend (triggered on Apr 4).
1st Red Flag: A close below 18050 on a red day suggests a questioning of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Market closing below 17675 on a red day indicates potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Last week witnessed a deeper pullback, precisely testing the crucial first key monthly support level of 2059.5 (with a low of 2059.4), which was successfully held.
Despite the attempt to test 2162.5 & 2169 (reaching a high of 2167) earlier in the week, a strong red weekly close prompts a shift in bias to bearish, with caution added to the daily outlook.
The bounce observed on Friday isn't overly convincing for the bulls, hence the change in daily bias to bearish, although caution is warranted as the key support at 2059.5 held on Friday.
Bulls now face the challenge of regaining control, especially after triggering the orange flag following Tuesday's red close.
Thursday's missed opportunity for bulls to reclaim 2130 or at least 2126 resulted in a pullback from 2123.7, leading to a drop to 2059.5.
Bulls must now hold 2080 to proceed with the back test of 2094/2098/2110/2020 and ultimately 2126 & 2130.
A daily close above 2120 would signal a shift to bullish bias, while a close above 2130 (or at least 2130) would change weekly bias to bullish.
Conversely, failure at 2080 could bring 2067 into play, which if fails, back to 2059.5. If this fails next time, it leads to supports at 2055/2047.1/2037/2031/2021.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 1867 holds, targets of 2247/2461/2575+ remain in play.
🐻 Bearish: Determination of bearish trend hinges on the monthly outlook.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 2053/2032 holds or is reclaimed, targets of 2247/2300+ remain feasible.
🐻 Bearish: Weekly trend dynamics will dictate the potential transition to bearish sentiment.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: Holding 2080 and reclaiming 2094 could lead to targets of 2120/2130/2153.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 2080 could result in downside targets of 2067/2055/2047.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 2080 holds, targets of 2089.5/2094 are in play.
Upon reclaiming 2094, levels of 2112/2120 become relevant.
Subsequent reclamation of 2120 could pave the way for targets at 2126/2130.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 2080 fails, targets of 2076.2/2071.2 are likely.
Should 2071.2 fail, downside targets extend to 2067.2/2063.5.
Further failure at 2063.5 could lead to targets at 2059.5/2055.
Zoomed-out View:
Bullish: Reclaiming or holding 2095 could bring targets of 2190/2198 into focus.
Bearish: Failure at 2047.8 could lead to downside targets of 2027/2018/2002-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 2089.5/2094, 2112/2120*, 2126/2130*, 2141.5, 2153.5, 2162.5*, 2169*, 2176.5, 2190*, 2198, 2209.5*
Support: 2080, 2076.2/2071.2, 2067.2/2063.5*, 2059.5/2055*, 2047.8*, 2037, 2031/2027, 2021/2018*, 2009**
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days.
No changes to flag levels
Orange Flag: A close below 2091.5 questions the daily uptrend. (triggered April 2nd)
1st Red Flag: A close below 2047.8 on a red day may suggest questioning of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: A close below 2009 on a red day could indicate potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.