Weekly Charts Reading for 4/29- 5/3
BearFed or BullFed?
How’s last week?
#ES:
Back test bounce kicked off right after Sunday's market opening.
Bears showed up as expected around 5122/5132 (5128.75 high) on Wed, pushing prices down.
Bulls defended 5026, a crucial level for Sunday/Monday's upside continuation.
Thursday barely closed at key 5132 (actual 5131.75) and repeated the same close on Friday.
Overall, it was a good week for bi-directional trading.
#NQ:
Bears were expected to flex their muscles around 17770 and 17900.
This played out on Wed, Apr 24, and again on Fri, Apr 26.
After bears pushed the price below 17340, bulls swiftly reclaimed and continued the upward move with strength.
Overall, it was a solid week for bi-directional trading.
#RTY:
Anticipated bear presence around 2001 and 2020.
Bears didn't materialize at 2001, but bulls struggled for four days to claim 2020, even though they managed to push the price up to 2023.9.
Plenty of opportunities for bi-directional plays.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Please note, if I don't hit 500 subscribers in the next couple of months, I might have to reconsider whether this newsletter is hitting the mark. It's a lot of work, and if it's not resonating with enough people, it might be time to call it quits.
A big thank you to those of you who've been cheering me on and encouraging me to keep publishing. Your support means the world!
Thanks, all!
Week Ahead (4/29 – 5/3)
Relief bounce or back test bounce underway across major indices.
All major indices have completed back tests of their initial key levels and are now at decision points.
Market is uncertain about the next move, pondering whether prices will continue upwards or downwards.
For bulls, it's crucial to secure identified levels early in the week and position themselves well ahead of Wednesday's significant rate announcement and press conference.
Failure to do so by Sunday/Monday increases the likelihood of downside continuation, though this is speculative and not a trading plan.
Note: Tuesday will see the printing of monthly candles, potentially leading to end-of-month adjustments and volatility.
#YM closed the week in the green, but without convincing bullish momentum, hinting at a possible failed back test and the formation of a local top (though it's too early to confirm).
Last week, as expected, #DXY/$USD bulls took a brief break, but Friday saw a strong comeback, ending the week barely in the red. If resistance at 106.330/106.580/106.670 holds, bulls might retreat further; if not, expect strong upside momentum.
In summary, #YM and #DXY add to the uncertainty about the market direction next week.
Therefore, I'll be playing long or short based on the support and claim levels identified below.
As always, I've identified levels for both bearish and bullish plays.
If you aren't sure how to trade in volatile markets, Wednesday would be the best to sit out.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
Next week’s packed with the usual economic updates. But the biggie everyone's eyeing is on Wednesday when the FOMC spills the beans on the Fund Rate, drops a statement, and, most crucially, hosts a Press Conference with J Powell, likely stirring up wild swings in the market. Other highlights include Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and the NFP and Unemployment Rate on Friday. But mark my words, Wednesday steals the show, where the market’s fate hangs in the balance, determining if we keep sliding or pull off a bullish turnaround.
Note about charts:
Check out the daily chart links provided for a closer look at the detailed levels.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: caution 🐂 📊 Daily: caution 🐂
Analysis
The week commenced as anticipated with a back test bounce, initiated after the key 4960 support held firm on Friday the 19th and persisted throughout Monday.
Consequently, the week closed in the green.
Both Thursday and Friday's closes precisely at 5131.75, just a quarter point below the key 5132 level, underscores the market's confirmation of 5132 as a crucial level
A close above 5132 would have potentially triggered a lime flag, but the close being just at that level leaves the trigger undecided.
Hence, changing the weekly and daily bias to bullish but with ample caution
For the bullish momentum to sustain, bulls need to hold 5124 or at least 5116 early in the week and swiftly claim 5144 to march towards the next key levels of 5160/66.
If 5103 fails to hold, downside targets of 5065/5055 are likely, with an intermediate support at 5082.
Thursday's bullish recovery holds significance for the bulls' defense.
Therefore, the three key levels for bulls to defend next week are 5103, 5065/60, and 5022.
Price action below 5103 might be bit tricky/messy.
If 5103 fails, 5065/60 becomes pivotal for the bulls to defend, & if holds, potentially leading to the next leg up to 5182/86+ if not tested already.
Failure to hold 5055 on a daily basis could bring 5006/5000 into play. However, if this level holds and reclaims 5022 the same day, it signals continued bullish control.
A breach of 5022 on a red day could open up the possibility of new lows.
On the bullish side, claiming 5166 could trigger a move towards 5207/5215/5219, with intermediate resistance at 5182/5186.
The general trade plan for long trades involves holding 5124/5116 for a potential test of 5160/65, followed by 5182/5186 and then 5215/5219.
Conversely, for short trades, if 5103 fails, targets of 5065/5060 are likely, followed by 5038/5022 and potentially 5006/5000.
It's crucial to note the levels mentioned in the monthly bearish viewpoint for further context.
Trade level-to-level to navigate the market effectively.
Yearly View
🐂 Bullish: As long as 4420/4350 holds, the focus remains on 5615/6110+.
🐻 Bearish: The trend will determine when the monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint
🐂 Bullish Goal: As long as 5185 holds or is reclaimed, the focus remains on 5370/5445.
🐻 Bearish Goal: Bears maintain control below 5215, with 4815/4805/4702- in play.
Weekly Perspective
🐂 Bullish: Holding and claiming 5124/5116, and then 5133, could bring 5160/66/5182/86/5207+ into play.
🐻 Bearish: A failure at 5103 might lead to 5065/60/5045/5038- coming into play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily)
If 5124 or 5116 holds, targets of 5133*/5144/5050 come into play.
Claiming 5144 opens the door to 5160*/66*.
If 5166 is claimed, targets shift to 5182/5186.
Claiming 5186 could lead to 5207/15*/5219*.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily)
If 5116 fails, targets shift to 5103*.
Failing at 5103 could bring targets of 5086/82.
If 5082 fails, could lead to 5065*/5055*.
If 5055 fails, targets shift to 5045/38*/5022*.
Zoomed-out View
🐂 Bullish: Reclaiming 5132 could lead to targets of 5215/49/73/5288.
🐻 Bearish: A failure to hold 4960 might bring targets of 4825/74/66/15/11- into play.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance: 5133*, 5144, 5160/66*, 5182/86, 5207, 5215/19**, 5233, 5241/49**, 5268/73, 5288*, 5305*/5317, 5329*, 5337, 5345*, 5353*, 5366, 5377*
Support: 5128/5124, 5116*, 5103*, 5086/5082, 5072, 5065/5055*, 5045, 5038*, 5022*, 5006*, 5000, 4990, 4980, 4968/4960*, 4955, 4935*/25, 4908, 4898/90, 4874*/4866**, 4848/41
Possible Trade Plans
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but on lower time frame signs of 5124 or 5116 holding (ideally dip near 5113 & reclaim of 5113), then consider long trade with SL below 5116 and 5124, 5133 & 5144 as targets.
If price holds 5103 or drops below 5103 say 5100 & quickly claims 5103 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5103 and 5116, 5124*, 5133 and 5144 as targets.
If price holds 5065 or drops below 5065 (say 5057) & quickly reclaims 5065 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5060 & 5082/86 and 5103 as targets.
If price holds 5038 or drops below 5038 (say 5031) & quickly reclaims 5038 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5038 & 5045, 5055 and 5060 as targets.
If price holds 5022 or drops below 5022 (say 5017) & quickly reclaims 5022 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5020 & 5036, 5045 and 5055 as targets.
If price holds 5006 or drops below 5006 (say 5000) & quickly reclaims 5006 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5005 & 5022 and 5038 as targets.
Short Trades:
If Sunday opens up but below 5138 and on lower time frame signs of rejection appears, consider short trade with SL above 5038 and 5124 and 5116 as targets (quick short trade - can take profit before target hits).
On lower time frames if rejection of 5160/66 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and and 2nd & 3rd intra day support as targets (likely 5144, 5133).
On lower time frames if rejection of 5182/82 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and and 2nd & 3rd intra day support as targets (likely 5165, 5160)
On lower time frames if rejection of 5207/5215 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and 2nd & 3rd intra day support as targets (likely 5186, 5182).
Green Flags
Watch out for potential bullish reversal signs on green days.
Lime Flag: A close above 5132 on a green day could indicate that the daily downtrend bias is in question. (Not sure it's triggered yet)
1st Green Flag: If the market closes above 5215 on a green day, it may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: A significant bullish confirmation could occur if the market closes above 5249 on a green day, potentially voiding the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis
A good back test bounce was observed, culminating in the week closing in the green.
Consequently, the weekly and daily bias is adjusted to bullish. However, it's imperative to exercise caution as this still remains within a back test bounce in a downtrend.
Last week's analysis highlighted 17770 and 17900 as potential levels where bearish strength might emerge.
As anticipated, on Wednesday, April 24, #NQ experienced pressure precisely at 17770, causing a retracement.
On Friday, #NQ reached 17900 spot-on and retraced slightly.
Now, it's crucial for bulls to reclaim and sustain above 17900 to demonstrate strength, with a close above 17990 signifying commitment.
Even though bullish or long trades are discussed, it's essential to remember the context of the downtrend and take profits swiftly, even slightly below the target points.
Refer to the levels mentioned in the monthly bearish viewpoint for added context.
Yearly View
🐂 Bullish: as long as 14265/14140 holds, 20320/22640 remains in focus.
🐻 Bearish: will determine when the monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long as 16690 holds, 19035/19710/20190 remains in play (still holding so far).
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long as bears hold 18350 or at least 18150, 16690/16470/16350 are in play.
Weekly Perspective
🐂 Bullish: If 17815 or 17770 holds and 17900 is reclaimed, 17970/90/18110/150/18225+ are in play.
🐻 Bearish: If 17675 fails, 17495/17450/17372/17330 are in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily)
If 17815 holds, 17870/17900 are in play.
If 17900 is claimed, 17970/90* are next.
If 17990 is claimed, 18050/18110*/18150* are in play.
If 18150 is claimed, 18225 is next.
If 18225 is claimed, 18325/18350* are in play.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily)
If 17815 fails, 17770/17730 are in play.
If 17730 fails, 17675* is next.
If 17675 fails, 17605/17565 are in play.
If 17565 fails, 17530/17495/17450* are next.
If 17450 fails, 17372/17330* are in play.
If 17330 fails, 17285*/17220 is next.
Zoomed-out View
🐂Bullish: as long 17115 holds or is reclaimed, 18350+ is in play.
🐻Bearish: if 17115 fails to hold, 16835/16690/16470/16425- are in play.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance: 17870, 17900*, 17930, 17970/90*, 18050, 18110/50**, 18225, 18325/18350**, 18445, 18507/20*, 18568*, 18595, 18625*, 18690*
Support: 17815, 17770, 17730, 17675*, 17605, 17565, 17530, 17495*/17450*, 17372, 17330*/17285*, 17220, 17180*, 17140*/17115*, 17100, 17040, 16982, 16855*/16835*, 16760, 16690*/60*, 16630, 16580, 16470*, 16425*
Possible Trade Plans
Besides level by level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.
Long Trades
If Sunday opens down but on a lower time frame sees signs of 17815 holding (ideally a dip near 17805 & a reclamation of 17815), then consider a long trade with SL below 17815 and targets at 17870 and 17900.
If Sunday opens up and starts pulling back from 17870, observe if after a gap fill of 17825, the price holds that level. Two choices arise: initiate a long trade upon seeing 17825 holding with SL below 17815, targeting 17870 and 17900 OR wait for 17850 to be reclaimed before entering a long position.
If the price holds 17770 or dips below it (to around 17758) but quickly reclaims 17770 on a lower time frame, consider a long trade with SL below 17770 and targets at 17815, 17850, and 17870.
If the price holds 17730 or dips below it and swiftly reclaims 17730 on a lower time frame, contemplate a long trade with SL below 17730 and targets at 17770, 17815, 17850, and 17870.
If the price holds 17675 or dips below it (to say 17660) but quickly reclaims 17675 on a lower time frame, consider a long trade with SL below 17675 and targets at 17730, 17770, 17815, 17850, and 17870.
If the price holds 17450 on a lower time frame or swiftly reclaims 17450 after a quick drop to 17440, consider a long trade with SL below 17450 and targets at 17495, 17530, and 17565.
If the price holds 17330 on a lower time frame or swiftly reclaims 17330 after a quick drop to 17315, consider a long trade with SL below 17330 and targets at 17372, 17450, and 17495.
Short Trades
If Sunday opens up but below 17870 and on a lower time frame shows signs of 17815 support failing, contemplate a short trade with SL above 17815 and targets at 17770, 17730, and 17675.
If Sunday opens down and on a lower time frame demonstrates rejection of 17850, consider a short trade with SL above 17850 and targets at 17815, 17770, and 17730.
On lower time frames, if rejection of 17900, 17970/90, 18050, 18110/18150, 18300/18350 is observed, contemplate short trades with SL above these levels and the next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets. For instance, if 17900 is rejected on a lower time frame, place SL above 17900 and target 17815 and 17770.
Green Flags
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:
Lime Flag: A close above 17555 on a green day could indicate that the daily downtrend bias is in question. (Triggered on Apr 23)
1st Green Flag: If the market closes above 17970 on a green day, it may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: A significant bullish confirmation could occur if the market closes above 18350 on a green day, potentially voiding the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis
As expected, #RTY exhibited a stronger bullish move compared to other indices.
A positive weekly close was observed, with Friday's close also ending on a high note.
Consequently, the weekly and daily bias is shifted to bullish. However, caution is warranted as this remains a bounce within a downtrend.
Resistance around 2020 has been noticeable since last Tuesday, posing a challenge for bulls.
Swiftly claiming this level is crucial for demonstrating strength and securing 2036 for seeing commitment.
Key weekly supports lie at 1985 and 1974. It's imperative for bulls to defend these levels; failure to do so may lead to further choppy movements and downside risks.
A daily reclaim of 2036 is likely to attract more bullish momentum into the market.
Refer to the levels mentioned in the monthly bearish viewpoint for added context.
Yearly View
🐂 Bullish: as long as 1867 holds, 2247/2461/2575+ are in play.
🐻 Bearish: will determine when the monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long as 2053/2032 holds or is reclaimed, 2247/2300+ are in play (need to reclaim 2032 to bring this back into play).
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long as bears hold 2058 or at least 2036, 1905/1810 are in play.
Weekly Perspective
🐂 Bullish: If 2012.5/2009 holds and 2020 is reclaimed, 2036/2042/2047.8/2058 are in play.
🐻 Bearish: If 1985 fails, 1974/1958/1952/1925- are in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily)
If 2012.5 or 2009 holds, 2020*/2026 are in play.
If 2020 is claimed, 2030/2036*/2042 are next.
If 2036 is claimed, 2047.8/2052 are in play.
If 2047.8 is claimed, 2058*/2065* are next.
If 2065 is claimed, 2074 is next.
If 2074 is claimed, 2089.5/2091.5* are in play.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily)
If 2009 fails, 2000 is next.
If 2000 fails, 1991/1985* are in play.
If 1985 fails, 1974* is next.
If 1974 fails, 1965/1958 are in play.
If 1958 fails, 1952*/1946 is next.
If 1946 fails, 1936/1925* are in play.
Zoomed-out View
bullish: if 2095 holds/reclaimed, 2190/2198 are in focus (failed so far).
bearish: if 1985 fails, 1974/1958/1952/1925- are in play.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance: 2020*, 2026, 2030, 2036*, 2042/47.8*, 2052, 2058*, 2065*, 2074, 2089/91.5*, 2100/2112.5*, 2114*, 2126/2130, 2141.5, 2153.5, 2162.5/2169*
Support: 2012.5/2009, 2000, 1991*/1985*, 1974*, 1965, 1958, 1952/1946*, 1936, 1925*, 1914, 1905/1902*, 1896, 1887, 1880*, 1870, 1863, 1852/1848.5*
Green Flags
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:
Lime Flag: A close above 2001 on a green day could indicate that the daily downtrend bias is in question. (Triggered on Apr 23rd)
1st Green Flag: If the market closes above 2036 on a green day, it may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: A significant bullish confirmation could occur if the market closes above 2065 on a green day, potentially voiding the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Couple of examples of holding a support:
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Be Happy Managing Risk in Trading!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Fixed typos in first Long Trade Plays for ES. Thank you @Ashu for pointing out the typos!