Weekly Charts Reading for 4/22- 4/26
Party over?
How’s last week?
#ES:
After the close on April 4th, triggered my orange flag.
The close on April 12th triggered the 1st red flag.
The close on April 17th triggered the 2nd red flag.
Last week's low was about 6.94% down from this year's highs. In just last week alone, it moved about 4.79% down and closed the week at -6.19% from the highs.
#NQ:
Last week, I wrote "On daily, if 18050 fails, 17720/17675 or even 17560- could be in play (may or may not be same week)" - how much I underestimated the power of bears!
After the close on April 4th, triggered my orange flag.
The close on April 15th triggered the 1st red flag.
The close on April 17th triggered the 2nd red flag.
Last week's low was about 8.5% down from this year's highs. In just last week, it moved about 6.75% down and closed the week at -8.18% from the highs.
#RTY:
After the close on April 2nd, triggered my orange flag.
The close on April 12th triggered the 1st red flag.
The close on April 17th triggered the 2nd red flag.
Had a 5.9% high to low range. But managed to close with only a 2.75% loss for the week. Note it's about 9.36% down from this year's high. On Friday, went down about 11.6% from the top this year. That's correction territory.
Because of strong bearish momentum, the price went well below my bearish level by level plays. On X, I did post new levels below the last one in my bearish plays. If you referred to it, noticed the lows of #ES and #NQ correspond to precise levels that I posted.
You tell me if my flag level system alerted you correctly for you about upcoming short term trend change?
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Please note, if I don't hit 500 subscribers in the next couple of months, I might have to reconsider whether this newsletter is hitting the mark. It's a lot of work, and if it's not resonating with enough people, it might be time to call it quits.
A big thank you to those of you who've been cheering me on and encouraging me to keep publishing. Your support means the world!
Thanks, all!
Week Ahead (4/22 – 4/26)
Last week was rough, and we might see a bounce back, but don't mistake it for a trend change unless bulls start claiming those green key flag levels.
However, the bearish momentum from last week could very well persist.
So, I'm keeping an eye on support and claim levels below to guide my long or short plays.
The green close of #RTY and #YM on Friday gives a glimmer of hope, suggesting they might be up for some back testing, which could lift the overall market sentiment.
Plus, if #DXY / $USD bulls need a breather, next week looks promising as it's just below the 106.670 resistance.
To sum up, #YM, #RTY, and #DXY might set the stage for a relief bounce next week.
Additionally, I reckon #ES and #NQ have tested key support levels last week and are due for a back test.
As always, I've got my eyes on levels for both bearish and bullish plays.
Note: My expertise doesn't extend to geopolitics or macro / micro economic analysis. Therefore, I categorize geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic conditions as factors that favor the bears, as they often introduce uncertainty and challenges to the market.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
Next week's schedule is packed with the usual economic reports. The ones to watch out for include Tuesday's PMI, Thursday's GDP and Unemployment claims, and Friday's core PCE. These reports tend to draw a lot of market attention. Also, earnings season is ongoing, so expect some volatility around earnings announcements and economic reports.
Note about charts:
Check out the daily chart links provided for a closer look at the detailed levels. You'll see how perfectly the Fibonacci levels played out for #ES_F, #NQ_F, and #RTY_F.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious🐻
Analysis:
Last week witnessed a continuation of the strong pullback, marking the third consecutive red week with an impressive 5% drop.
Notably, Monday and Friday stood out with the largest moves of the week, approximately 110 points on Monday and 100 points on Friday.
Consequently, the weekly and daily biases remain bearish, with caution warranted as #ES holds its position above the key 4960 support, suggesting a potential back test bounce.
The possibility of a green week emerges if this back test prolongs, especially with a daily green close above 5065, increasing the probability.
A Wednesday close below 5084 triggered 2nd red flag
Hence the weekly downtrend persists until 5215 is claimed, although the pressure is expected to ease with a daily claim of 5132.
A daily green close beyond 5060 would bolster bullish sentiment
Although discussing bullish or long trades, it's crucial to recognize that these are within the context of a heavy downtrend. Therefore, it's essential to swiftly take profits on long trades, even if they fall a few points below the target.
Bearish:
Failure to hold 4960 opens the path to 4935, with further downside targets at 4870, 4815/4811, and potentially 4735 over the coming weeks.
Given the market's tendency to inflict maximum pain on both bulls and bears, if 5000/4990 holds, we might see a test of the 5122/32 level (max pain level), where bears could exert significant downward pressure, continuing the downtrend.
An interesting bearish scenario could emerge if 5122/5132 is rejected and fails to maintain the second intraday support, or if it breaches levels such as 5095/5086. Alternatively, for a safer approach, waiting for the failure of 4960 before initiating a short position could be prudent, with a target swing play around 4874/66.
Bullish:
Bulls face the challenge of reclaiming key levels for a potential bullish takeover, including 5015, 5026, 5038, 5050, 5060, and 5065.
Confidence in a local bottom increases upon claiming 5132 on the daily, with a weekly close above 5132 further solidifying the bullish stance.
Upon surpassing 5215, bulls are likely to set their sights on new all-time highs.
General Trade Plan:
Long trades may be considered if 4990/4960 holds, targeting 5060/5065, with subsequent levels at 5132 and beyond.
Short trades become viable if 4960 fails, targeting 4935/4925 and potentially lower levels.
As always, trade execution should be approached on a level-by-level basis, considering the market's fluid dynamics.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 5185 holds/reclaimed, 5370/5445 in focus (needs to reclaim 5185 to keep this in play)
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long bears hold 5215, 4815/4805/4702- in play
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 5000/4990 holds and claims 5026, 5060/5122/32/5160/66 in play
🐻 Bearish: If 4990 fails, 4973/60/25/74/66- in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 5000/4990 holds and 5026 claimed, 5050*/60/5065* in play
If 5065 claimed, 5086/5095 next
If 5095 claimed, 5122*/5132* next
If 5132 claimed, 5160/66 next
If 5166 claimed, 5207/15*/5219* in play
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 4990 fails, 4973/4966/4960* would be the target
If 4960 fails, 4935/4925* in play
If 4935 fails, 4874/4866 in play
If 4866 fails, 4848/4811 next
If 4811 fails, 4815*/11/4805* becomes the downside targets.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: if 5132 reclaimed, 5215/49/73/5288 in play
🐻 Bearish: if 4960 fails to hold, 4825/74/66/15/11- in play
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5015/5026, 5038, 5050, 5060/65**, 5086/95, 5122/32**, 5160/66*, 5182/86, 5207, 5215/19**, 5233, 5241/49**, 5268/73, 5288*, 5305*/5317, 5329*, 5337, 5345*, 5353*, 5366, 5377*
Support: 5000/4990*, 4980, 4968/60**, 4950, 4935*/25, 4908, 4898/90, 4874*/4866**, 4848/41, 4828, 4515/11**, 4805, 4792, 4780, 4768*, 4753/46*
Possible Trade Plans:
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but on lower time frame signs of 5000 or 4990 holding (ideally dip near 4980 & reclaim of 4990), then consider long trade with SL below 5073 and 5015, 5026 & 5038 as targets
If price holds 4966 or drops below 4966 say 4959 & quickly claims 4966 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 4963 and 4980, 4990*, 5000 and 5015 as targets.
If price holds 4935 or drops below 4935 & quickly reclaims 4935 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 4935 & 4950, 4960/68 and 4980/90 as targets.
If price holds 4874 or drops below 4874 (say 4861) & quickly reclaims 4866 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 4866 & 4890, 4898, 4908 and 4925 as targets
If price holds 4811 or drops below 4811 (say 4805) & quickly reclaims 4811 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 4811 & 4828, 4841/48*, 4866* and 4874 as targets
Short Trades:
If Sunday opens up but below 5015 and on lower time frame signs of rejection appears, consider short trade with SL above 5015 and 5000, 4900 & 4980 as targets
On lower time frames if rejection of 5050/60/65, 5122/5132 and 5160/66 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2 or 3 support levels below as targets. For example if 60 appears to be rejected on lower timeframe, then SL above 5060 and 5038 & 5026 becomes target.
Green Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:
If price continues to move down, will re adjust flag levels down accordingly
Lime Flag: A close above 5132 on a green day could indicate that the daily downtrend bias is in question. This is already triggered.
1st Green Flag: If the market closes above 5215 on a green day, it may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: A significant bullish confirmation could occur if the market closes above 5249 on a green day, potentially voiding the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
A strong red weekly close indicates a bearish sentiment prevailing in the market.
Both the weekly and daily biases are bearish, with caution advised following a significant downturn.
It's essential to note that any bullish or long trades should be approached with caution within the context of a heavy downtrend, prompting quick profit-taking even if slightly below the target.
Given the market's tendency to inflict maximum discomfort for both bulls and bears, attention is drawn to the potential test of the 17770/17900 level if 17140 holds, where bears may exert significant downward pressure.
An interesting bearish scenario could unfold if 17770 or 17900 faces rejection and fails to maintain the second intraday support, or if it breaches support levels such as 17675, 17340. Alternatively, for a more conservative approach, one can wait for the failure of 17115 before initiating a short position, targeting 16690/16470 as a swing play.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding 14265/14140 could target 20320/22640.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will dictate bearish sentiment.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: Holding 16690 could lead to targets of 19035/19710/20190.
🐻 Bearish Goal: Bears holding 18350 or at least 18150 could push towards 16690/16470/16350.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 17140 holds and reclaiming 17295, targets are 17555/17770/17900/17970.
🐻 Bearish: If 17115 fails, targets are 16960/16835/16690/16470.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):
If 17140 holds & 17235 is claimed, targets are 17340/17390*.
Claiming 17390 could lead to 17530/17555* next.
Success at 17555 may push towards 17675/17770*.
Breaking above 17770 could target 17850/17900*.
Claiming 17900 could lead to 17970*/17990 next.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):
If 17115 fails, targets are 17040/16982.
If 16982 fails, targets are 16855/16835*.
Breaking below 16835 could lead to 16760.
Failure at 16760 may push towards 16690/16660.
Breaking below 16690 could target 16630/16580.
Failure at 16580 may lead to 16470/16425*.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding or reclaiming 17115 could target 18350+.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 17115 may target 16835/16690/16470/16425-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 17235, 17295, 17340/17390*, 17530/55*, 17955, 17625, 17675, 17730, 17770*, 17825/50, 17900*, 17970/90*, 18050, 18110/50**, 18225, 18325/18350**, 18445, 18507/20*, 18568*, 18595, 18625.
Support: 17140/17115, 17040, 16982, 16855/16835, 16760, 16690/60*, 16630, 16580, 16470*, 16425*, 16370/35*, 16300, 16256**, 16205, 16145, 16100*, 16060, 16020*.
Possible Trade Plans:
Besides level-by-level plays detailed above, follow are possible additional long and short trade opportunities to consider.
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but on lower time frame see signs of 17140 holding (ideally dip near 17132 & reclaim of 17140), then consider long trade with SL below 17140 and 17235, 17295 & 17340 as targets.
If Sunday opens up & start pulling back from 17235, wait to see if after gap fill of 17180, price is holding that level. Now two choices, go long upon seeing 17180 holding with SL below 17160 & 17235, 27295 & 17340 as targets OR wait for 17235 to be reclaimed and go long.
If price holds 17115 or drops below 17115 say 17100 & quickly claims 17115 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 17100 and 17140, 17180, 17235, 17295 & 17340 as targets.
If price holds 16835 or drops below 16835 & quickly reclaims 16855 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 16835 & 16982, 17040 & 17100 as targets.
If price holds 16690 or drops below 16690 (to say 16660) & quickly reclaims 16690 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 16690 & 16760, 16835 & 16855 as targets.
If price holds 16470 on lower time frame or quickly reclaims 16470 after quick drop to 16425 on lower time frame, consider long trade wtih SL below 16470 & 16580, 16660 and 16690 as targets.
Short Trades:
If Sunday opens up but below 17235 and on lower time frame signs of failing 17140 support appears, consider short trade with SL above 17180 and 17115, 17100* and 17040 as targets.
If Sunday opens down & on lower time frame signs of rejecting 17180 (Friday's close) appears, then consider short trade with SL above 17180 and 17140, 17115/17100* and 17040 as targets.
On lower time frames if rejection of 17295, 17340, 17555, 17770, 17900 or 17970 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets. For example if 17295 appears to be rejected on lower timeframe, then SL above 17295 and 17180 and 17140 becomes target.
Green Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:
If price continues to move down, will re adjust flag levels down accordingly
Lime Flag: A close above 17555 on a green day could indicate that the daily downtrend bias is in question. This is already triggered.
1st Green Flag: If the market closes above 17970 on a green day, it may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: A significant bullish confirmation could occur if the market closes above 18350 on a green day, potentially voiding the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Strong bearish momentum persisted during the week.
Hence both the weekly and daily biases remain bearish.
However, Friday's recovery from the key support at 1925, closing the day in the green, hints at potential bullish interest for a back test after three consecutive red weeks.
Caution is advised given these developments.
Monday's close triggered a second red flag, highlighting the significance of the 2036 level for bullish momentum.
It's crucial to note that any bullish or long trades should be approached cautiously within the context of a heavy downtrend, with quick profit-taking advised even slightly below the target.
Given the market's tendency to maximize discomfort for both bulls and bears, attention is drawn to the potential test of the 2001/2020 level if 1948 holds, where bears may exert significant downward pressure.
An interesting bearish play might occur if 2001 or 2020 is rejected, failing to hold the second intraday support or 2009 or 1985. Alternatively, waiting for the failure of 1925 before initiating short positions, targeting 1880/1852, presents a swing play opportunity.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding 1867 could target 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will determine bearish sentiment.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish: Holding or reclaiming 2053/2032 could target 2247/2300+ (need to reclaim 2032).
🐻 Bearish: Bears holding 2058 or at least 2036 could push towards 1905/1810.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 1958/1952 holds and reclaims 1975, targets are 1995/2001/2020/2036.
🐻 Bearish: If 1948 fails, targets are 1925/1905/1880/1852-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):
If 1958/52 holds, targets are 1971/1975.
Claiming 1975 could lead to 1981/88.
Breaking above 1988 may target 1995/2001*.
Claiming 2001 could lead to 2009/2014/2020*.
Breaking above 2020 may target 2030/2036*.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):
If 1948 fails, targets are 1936/1925*.
Failure at 1925 may lead to 1914/1905*/1902.
If 1905 fails, targets are 1896/1887/1880*.
Failure at 1880 may target 1870/1863.
If 1863 fails, targets are 1852/1848.5.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding or reclaiming 2095 could target 2190/2198 (failed so far).
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 1948 may target 1925/1905/1880/1852/1811-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 1975, 1985, 1995, 2001*, 2009, 2014, 2020*, 2030, 2036*, 2044/47.8, 2052, 2058*, 2068*, 2074, 2089/91.5*, 2100/2112.5*, 2114*, 2126/2130, 2141.5, 2153.5, 2162.5/2169*.
Support: 1958, 1952/1948*, 1936, 1925*, 1914, 1905/1902*, 1896, 1887, 1880*, 1870, 1863, 1852/1848.5*, 1840, 1825, 1811/1806*, 1797, 1788/1783*.
Possible Trade Plans:
Besides the level-by-level plays detailed above, consider the following possible additional long and short trade opportunities.
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but shows signs of 1948 holding (ideally a dip near 1942 & reclaims of 1948), consider a long trade with SL below 1948 and targets at 1975, 1985, 1995, and 2001.
If Sunday opens up and begins pulling back from 1975, wait to see if after a gap fill of 1965, the price holds at that level. Now, consider going long upon seeing 1965 holding with SL below 1960, targeting 1975 and 1985 or wait for 1975 to be reclaimed and then go long.
If the price holds at 1958 or drops below to say 1952 and quickly reclaims 1958 on a lower timeframe, consider a long trade with SL below 1952 and targets at 1975, 1985, 1995, and 2001.
If the price holds at 1925 or drops below to 1925 and quickly reclaims it on a lower timeframe, consider a long trade with SL below 1925 and targets at 1975, 1985, 1995, and 2001.
Short Trades:
If Sunday opens up but below 1975 and shows signs of failing 1948 support on a lower timeframe, consider a short trade with SL above 1965 and targets at 1948, 1936, and 1925.
If Sunday opens down and on a lower timeframe shows signs of rejecting 1975, then consider a short trade with SL above 1975 and targets at 1948, 1936, and 1925.
On lower timeframes, if rejection of 2001 or 2020 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with the next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets. For example, if 2001 appears to be rejected on a lower timeframe, then SL above 2001 and 1985 and 1975 become targets.
Green Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:
Lime Flag: A close above 2001 on a green day could suggest a questioning of the daily downtrend bias.
1st Green Flag: If the market closes above 2036 on a green day, it may suggest questioning the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
2nd Green Flag: A significant bullish confirmation could occur if the market closes above 2065 on a green day, potentially voiding the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Couple of examples of holding a support:
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Happy Trading folks!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.