Weekly Charts Reading for 4/15- 4/19
🐂 x 🐻: Skirmish, Battle, or War?
How’s last week?
#ES:
Last week, bulls had the challenge of claiming three levels: 5273, 5288, and 5308. However, none of these were achieved on the daily chart. The week's high was 5285, & when rejected, resulted in a low of 5150.
As anticipated, the week closed in the red.
#NQ:
Bulls managed to hold the crucial support at 18065/50 last week but fell short of claiming the lowered target of 18505/35.
#RTY:
RTY stumbled as it failed to maintain the key support at 2052 on Wednesday. Instead, it tested the next significant support at 2009 on Friday, which, as of now, holding okay.
For RTY's levels beyond what was included in the level-by-level plays, reference to the daily chart was necessary.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Please note, if I don't hit 500 subscribers in the next couple of months, I might have to reconsider whether this newsletter is hitting the mark. It's a lot of work, and if it's not resonating with enough people, it might be time to call it quits.
A big thank you to those of you who've been cheering me on and encouraging me to keep publishing. Your support means the world!
Thanks, all!
Week Ahead (4/15 – 4/19)
Next week's economic calendar is a bit light.
However, expect increased volatility due to news surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict.
With more earning reports expected in the coming weeks, anticipate additional volatility in the market.
Since I'm no expert in geopolitics or economics or company fundaments, I'll stick to chart analysis and let price action guide my trading decisions.
The bullish momentum seen since the start of the year has paused, shifting focus to which levels the bulls might defend to prevent a complete downturn.
#RTY remains the weakest performer, turning red for the year, with #YM close to joining it. Additionally, #ES closed the week in the red below the 1st red flag level.
However, #NQ is still holding key support, and #DXY is approaching key resistance on the monthly chart.
Therefore, there's caution regarding outright bearish bias.
Ideally, for #ES bulls, the price would dip early in the week followed by a recovery later on.
As always, I've identified levels for both bearish and bullish plays.
Note: My expertise doesn't extend to geopolitics or macro / micro economic analysis. Therefore, I categorize geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic conditions as factors that favor the bears, as they often introduce uncertainty and challenges to the market.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
Next week's economic calendar is looking pretty light, with only a couple of reports scheduled for Monday and Thursday.
Keep an eye on Tuesday afternoon, though, because J Powell is joining a fireside chat about economic trends. His talk could stir up some action in the market, as it usually does. But overall, it seems like a quieter week on the economic report front.
The real focus for the market will likely be on the geopolitical tensions around the globe, especially the Israel-Iran conflict, as well as earnings reports. Brace yourself for some volatility as news about these geopolitical events and earnings reports unfolds
Note about charts:
Check out the daily chart links provided for a closer look at the detailed levels. You'll see how perfectly the Fibonacci levels played out for #ES_F, #NQ_F, and #RTY_F.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: caution 🐻 📊 Daily: 🐻
Analysis:
Second consecutive week of bearish performance.
Weekly bias remains bearish.
The orange flag triggered on April 4th continues to influence market dynamics.
Notably, Friday's close marked the triggering of the first red flag.
To counter the bearish sentiment, a close above 5249 is needed, failing which prices are likely to test key support levels at 5132/22 and 5095/5086.
Consequently, the daily bias also shifts to bearish.
However, the support at 5157/52 offers a glimmer of hope for a potential back test bounce on Sunday or Monday.
It's important to monitor if this bounce translates into a strong bullish move and results in a close above 5249, which would switch the daily bias to bullish.
Bulls face the challenge of claiming several key resistance levels, including 5174, 5195, 5205, 5215, 5233, and 5249, with each conquered level boosting bullish confidence.
Even if the daily close surpasses 5249, the weekly bias remains bearish until the levels at 5273, 5288, and 5308 are successfully claimed.
If bears hold their ground up to resistance levels like 5215, and 5182 fails to provide support, the next likely support to be tested is at 5132/22, if that fails, 5095/5086 comes next.
Want to draw attention to what I said in last week's Newsletter: "After failing to hold 5182 daily, back test of 5195/5205 or even 5215 possible but if these are rejected and subsequently 5182 fails to hold, could see swift move down."
Friday we saw 5182 failed on daily. Let's see if and how this plays out next week.
In short, I am thinking as long 5157/52 holds, back test of 5195/5215 is likely, and as long as bears hold 5226/5233, 5132/5122/5112 is likely.
As always, be flexible and respond to what price tells you about the direction it wants to head.
A delayed close above 5249 on the daily chart suggests deeper downside targets, while rapid tests of support levels may prompt quicker bounces.
Bulls need to first claim 5249 to demonstrate intent and 5273 to show commitment.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding above 4420/4350 sets sights on 5615/6110+.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend turning bearish will dictate market sentiment.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: Reclaiming 5185 keeps focus on 5370/5445.
🐻 Bearish Goal: Weekly trend turning bearish will shape market outlook.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: Holding above 5157/5152 and claiming 5249 opens path to 5273/5288/5308/5317+.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 5152 leads to potential downside targets at 5122/5112/5090-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 5157/5152 holds and 5174 is claimed, 5195/5205/5215 become the next targets.
Subsequent claims of 5215 pave the way for 5233/5241/5249.
Claiming 5249 indicates potential moves towards 5273/5288/5308.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 5152 fails, targets shift to 5145/5132/5122.
If 5122 fails, targets are 5112/5095/5086.
If 5084 fails, leads to potential targets at 5070/5060/5050.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: Reclaiming 5317 opens doors to 5345/5353/5377.
🐻 Bearish: Failure to hold 5182 suggests downside targets at 5167/5132/5127/5095-. (currently in play)
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5174/82, 5195*, 5205/15*, 5226, 5233, 5241/5249*, 5268, 5273*, 5288*, 5303/08*, 5317, 5329*, 5337, 5345*, 5353*, 5366, 5377*
Support: 5157/52, 5132/27*, 5122, 5112, 5095/86*, 5070/60**, 5050, 5030, 5015*, 5002, 4990*, 4968/60**
Possible Trade Plans:
In addition to the detailed level-by-level plays above, here are some extra long and short trade opportunities to consider.
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but on lower time frame signs of 5157 or 5152 holding (ideally dip near 5152 & reclaim of 5157), then consider long trade with SL below Friday's low and 5174, 5182 & 5195 as targets.
If price holds 5132 or drops below 5132 say 5127 & quickly claims 5132 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 5127 and 5150/52, 5157 and 5167 as targets.
If price holds 5122 or drops below 5122 & quickly reclaims 5127 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5122 & 5145, 5150/52 as targets. In this scenario, after 5145 hit, back test of 5132 holds, may add to long and 5157 is additional target.
If price holds 5095 or drops below 5095 (to say 5092) & quickly reclaims 5095 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5092 & 5105, 5112 & 5121 as targets.
If price holds 5086 or drops below 5086 (to say 5081) & quickly reclaims 5086 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 5084 & 5095, 5105 & 5112 as targets.
Short Trades:
If Sunday opens up but below 5174 and on lower time frame signs of rejection appears, consider short trade with SL above 5174 and 5167, 5157 & 5152 as targets.
On lower time frames if rejection of 5195, 5205/15, 5226, 5233 and 5241 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2 or 3 support levels below as targets. For example if 5195 appears to be rejected on lower timeframe, then SL above 5195 and 5174 & 5167 becomes target.
Red Flags:
Orange Flag: A close below 5233 indicates questioning of the daily uptrend (triggered on Apr 4th).
1st Red Flag: A close below 5182 on a red day suggests potential questioning of the short-term weekly uptrend bias (triggered Apr 12).
2nd Red Flag: Market close below 5084 on a red day indicates potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Last week marked the third consecutive red week, including a red Friday.
Despite this, bulls managed to uphold the key levels at 18065/50 once again this week.
Hence, the daily bias remains bullish, and there's almost a inclination to shift the weekly bias to bullish as well.
However, confirmation awaits a daily green day close above 185020, or at least 18485.
It's worth noting that the 18065/50 support has been tested three times in the last two weeks, rendering it weaker with each test.
Therefore, this week, ideally, bulls should defend 18135 and swiftly claim 18345.
Note that since March 25 week, bulls needed to claim 18625, April 8 week they needed 18568 to claim and next week it has moved down to 18520 for sustained move to upside. Bears stepping down.
Meanwhile, bulls have managed to hold the 18050 support reasonably well.
Therefore I think, if 18520 is reclaimed, bullish momentum likely to accelerate, while a failure of 18050 could intensify bearish momentum.
On the daily chart, if 18050 fails, downside targets could include 17720/17675 or even 17560 (may or may not be in same week).
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding above 14265/14140 targets 20320/22640.
🐻 Bearish: Monthly trend will determine overall sentiment.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: Maintaining 16690 keeps focus on 19035/19710/20190.
🐻 Bearish Goal: Weekly trend will influence monthly outlook.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 18160/35 holds and 18568 is reclaimed, targets include 18625/18695/18790+.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 18135 may lead to downside targets at 18105/18075/50-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):
If 18160/35 holds and 18210 is claimed, targets are 18268/18345/18445.
Subsequent claims of 18445 open the path to 18505/20*/18568*.
Reclaiming 18520 suggests targets at 18595/18625*.
If 18625 is claimed, targets extend to 18690/18735*.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):
If 18135 fails, targets shift to 18120/05/18075*/18050*.
If 18050 fails, suggests targets at 18005/17960/17915*.
If 17915 can’t hold, leads to targets at 17860/17825*.
If 17825 fails, downside targets are 17785/17720/17675*.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding or reclaiming 18050 targets 19035+. (still holding 18050)
🐻 Bearish: Failure to hold 18050 suggests downside targets at 17860/17825/17675-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 18210/25, 18268*, 18345, 18445*, 18505/20*, 18568*, 18603/18625, 18695, 18735, 18790, 18820, 18870*, 18925, 19000, 19035/19075*
Support: 18160/35*, 18120/05*, 18075/18050*, 18005, 17960/17915*, 17860/17825*, 17785, 17720/17675*, 17575/60*
Possible Trade Plans:
In addition to the detailed level-by-level plays above, here are some extra long and short trade opportunities to consider.
Long Trades:
If Sunday opens down but on lower time frame signs of 18160 or 18135 holding (ideally dip near 18145 & reclaim of 18160), then consider long trade with SL below 18135 and 18210, 18268 & 18345 as targets.
If price holds 18105 or drops below 18105 say 18095 & quickly claims 18105 on lower time frame, then consider long trade with SL below 18095 and 18160, 18210 and 18268 as targets.
If price holds 17960 or drops below 17960 & quickly reclaims 17960 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 17930 & 18005, 18050 as targets.
If price holds 17915 or drops below 17915 (to say 17900) & quickly reclaims 17915 on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 17915 & 17960 & 18005 as targets.
If price holds 17860 on lower time frame or quickly reclaims 17860 after quick drop of 20-30pts on lower time frame, consider long trade with SL below 17860 & 17915, 17960 as targets.
Short Trades:
If Sunday opens up but below 18210 and on lower time frame signs of rejection appears, consider short trade with SL above 18210 and 18160, 18135 & 18105 as targets.
On lower time frames if rejection of 18345, 18445, 18485 appears, consider short trades with SL above these levels and with next 2nd or 3rd support levels below as targets. For example if 18345appears to be rejected on lower timeframe, then SL above 18345 and 18210 & 18160 becomes target.
Red Flags:
Orange Flag: A close below 18225, daily uptrend is in question (triggered on Apr 4).
1st Red Flag: A close below 18050 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 17675 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Another strong close in the red for the week, with the close near the 2nd red flag level at 2009.
Maintaining a bearish bias on both weekly and daily charts.
Caution is added as bulls seemed to defend well on the first test of the key support level at 2009, potentially prompting a back test of at least 2047.8.
In the daily view, claiming 2027/2037 is crucial for continuing to the back test of 2047.8 and 2058/2065.
In the weekly perspective, bulls need to claim two levels, 2065 and 2114, to confidently sustain the upside move.
Conversely, these levels are important for bears to defend in bearish plays.
Additionally, if 2027 is rejected on a lower timeframe (intra-day) and 2014 fails to hold, then 2009, 2002, and 1985 are likely to be in play.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding above 1867 targets 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish: Maintaining 2053/2032 or reclaiming it targets 2247/2300+.
🐻 Bearish: will determine when weekly trend turns bearish
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 2017/14 holds and 2065 is reclaimed, targets include 2090/2112.5/2114+.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 2009 may lead to downside targets at 1985/1970/68/1955-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):
If 2017/14 holds and 2027 is reclaimed, targets are 2036/2044 next.
Subsequent claims of 2044 open the path to 2052/2058/2065.
Reclaiming 2065 suggests targets at 2074/2090.
If 2090 is claimed, 2112.5*+ is next.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):
If 2014 fails, targets shift to 2009/2002 next.
Further failure of 2002 leads to potential targets at 1994/1985*.
If 1985 fails, downside targets are 1970/1962.
If 1970 fails, 1955/1948- is in play.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: Holding or reclaiming 2095 targets 2190/2198 (failed so far).
🐻 Bearish: Failure to hold 2047.8 may lead to downside targets at 2027/2018/2002- (in play).
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 2027, 2036, 2044/47.8, 2052, 2058*, 2068*, 2074, 2089/91.5*, 2100/2112.5*, 2114*, 2126/2130, 2141.5, 2153.5, 2162.5/2169*
Support: 2017/14*, 2009/2002*, 1994, 1985*, 1970, 1962, 1955*, 1948*, 1934, 1925/22*, 1905*, 1896, 1887, 1880*
Red Flags:
Orange Flag: A close below 2091.5 questions the daily uptrend (triggered April 2nd).
1st Red Flag: A close below 2047.8 on a red day suggests doubts in the short-term weekly uptrend bias (triggered April 12).
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 2009 on a red day, it indicates potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Couple of examples of holding a support:
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Happy Trading folks!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Note, under Possible Trade Plans has some extra long and short trade opportunities to consider in addition to the detailed level-by-level plays