Weekly Charts Reading for 4/1- 4/5

Coil, Unwind or Sprint?

Mar 31, 2024

#ES held strong at 5273 (with a low at 5263), but Wednesday's bullish push to claim 5311 fell short. Thursday saw another attempt to surpass 5311, but ended up hitting 5219 without securing the daily close above 5311.
#NQ steadily declined, maintaining support at 18430. An attempt to breach 18625 failed with a high at 18619.
#YM held firm at 39655, made a successful move to claim 40020, and peaked at 40245 (with a high at 40240).
#RTY stood its ground at 2086.7, then as predicted, broke through 2138 and hit 2162 (with a high at 2161.8), marking a new 52-week high.
#DXY continued its bullish trend, encountering the first resistance as expected at 104.715 (reaching a high at 104.727). The monthly candle showed a strong bullish close. Interestingly, the strength of the US dollar didn't significantly impact #RTY.
End of month action on Thursday saw some choppy movement in #NQ, with only the 18525 resistance level proving effective intraday.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (4/1 – 4/5)

Although short-term bulls seem a bit shaky, there's no clear sign yet that they're ready to surrender control.
I anticipate that as long as the identified support levels hold, the possibility of an upside move remains.
In the event of a sharper pullback, I'll keep a close eye on the price action near the open/low of March 20th.
Both #RTY and #YM are displaying strength. If they maintain their immediate support levels like 2142/2138 & 40085 respectively, we might witness upward movements.
Let me emphasize again, as long as they maintain their respective red flag levels for the next week, I'd consider it a healthy pullback for the bulls, regardless of how swiftly prices decline.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar:

Next week is packed with significant events, starting off with Monday's Manufacturing PMI. Throughout the week, various FOMC members will be speaking at conferences and engaging in Q&A sessions from Tuesday to Thursday, providing ample opportunities to potentially impede the bullish momentum in #ES & #NQ.

Additionally, we have our regular reports lined up: JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ADP NFP and Services PMI on Wednesday, Unemployment claims on Thursday, and NFP & Unemployment rate on Friday.

As always, brace for some good volatility in the market surrounding these events.

Note about charts:
Check out the daily chart links provided for a closer look at the detailed levels. You'll see how perfectly the Fibonacci levels played out for #ES_F, #NQ_F, and #RTY_F.

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

📈 Weekly Report: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻

Weekly Chart Daily Chart

Analysis:

Another week, mix of green with a splash of red on Friday around 5319. This keeps us cautiously bullish for the week ahead, but with a hint of bearish vibes on the daily.
Friday's highlight was that magical number 5302, which got a bit of a test towards the end of the session. It seems to be holding its ground for now.
If we keep hugging 5302 or even dip slightly to 5297 before bouncing back up, the bull party could continue to 5308, 5317, and maybe even 5328. But let's not get too ahead of ourselves – bulls must claim 5308 first.
Now, if 5308 or 5317 gives us the cold shoulder and 5302 starts acting all wishy-washy, we might find ourselves sliding back to 5285/5278 territory.
And remember 5273 from last week? It's like the final level for the bullish crew. Let's hope bulls don't trip over that one, or we might be in for a rollercoaster down to 5243/5235.
A failed breakdown near 5273 could just be a little dip to 5270/5268 before we bounce right back to 5275.
Now, if we manage to claim 5317 and keep our grip on 5311/5308, then it's sailing towards 5328/5337+. But let's tread carefully – slow moves post-Friday could mean a red week.
Based on Friday's close, the bears might try to sneak a peek at 5278/5273, but they gotta claim 5285/5280 first.
This can resolve two ways, bulls hold 5278/5273 and start claiming 5285/5297 and upside move likely to continue
Other more likely possibility is failing to hold 5278/5273 and make rapid move down to 5246/5233-
In case of second scenario here are two possible actions of interest to bulls:
- quick drop below 5246 to 5237/5234 & reclaiming of 5246 likely bulls holding the support
- quick dip below 5233 to 5226 & reclaim of 5233 would likely to setup next move back up to 5293
And if 5233 doesn't hold and there's no quick bounce from 5226, bulls might find support around 5194/5182.

possible bullish move:

Alright, so now the bulls can hold onto 5278/5273 and then back test 5297/5302/5308 like it's window shopping.
Once they claim 5308, they'll get confidence to move towards 5317/5328
And only after they claim 5317, the party's marching towards 5321 & another new ATH.
But bulls must claim 5308 first to show some oomph and 5317 to show they’re committed.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: Focus on 5615/6110+ as long as 4420/4350 holds.
🐻 Bearish: A shift to bearish sentiment will be discerned upon the monthly trend turning bearish.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: Targeting 5370/5445 as long as 5185 holds or is reclaimed.
🐻 Bearish Goal: Watch for indications of a shift in weekly trend towards bearishness.

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: A hold and claim of 5302/5297 with subsequent claiming of 5317 could lead to 5353/5377.
🐻 Bearish: A failure around 5169 could trigger a downside towards 5145/5112/5090-.

Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):

If the support at 5302/5297 holds & claim 5308, 5317/5321 next
Upon successfully claiming the 5317 level, the next targets on the radar is 5328/5337.
Once 5337 is claimed, the focus then shifts to the 5345/5353/5366.

Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):

If 5297 fails to hold, 5287/5285 would be the target
If 5285 fails, the next support levels to consider is 5278/5273
If 5273 fails, 5264/5253/5246- becomes the downside targets.

Zoomed-out View:

🐂 Bullish: Reclaiming 5311 could signal a move towards 5345/5353.
🐻 Bearish: A failure to hold 5273 may initiate a downside towards 5233/5194/5182-.

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 5308, 5317, 5321, 5328*, 5337, 5345*, 5353*, 5366, 5377*
Support: 5302/5297*, 5285, 5280/5278, 5273*, 5264, 5253, 5246*, 5235/5226*

Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

Keeping flag levels same as last week price didn't move up

Orange Flag: A close below 5233 could question the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 5182 on a red day may challenge the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: Market closure below 5084 on a red day could void the short-term weekly uptrend

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

📈 Weekly Report: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻

Weekly Chart Daily Chart

Analysis:

The week concluded in red, with Friday's choppy close prompting a shift in bias towards bearishness. However, caution is warranted as the bulls from March 20th are still holding their ground, emphasizing the need for short term bears to be cautious until 18225 fails.
Despite the bearish tilt, last week's focus on 18430 as a pivotal level for bulls remained valid, with hopes of breaching 18625 for sustained upward momentum. While bulls defended 18430, they fell short of claiming 18625, with Tuesday's peak at 18619 serving as the lone attempt.
Looking ahead, a potential back test of 18505/18530 looms if 18440/30 holds support, offering bulls the opportunity to showcase intent by surpassing 18530 and commitment by holding 18568.
Timely action is essential, preferably with swift developments early in the week to mitigate further downside risks.
Also if 18568 is claimed, must hold 18530 in subsequent pullback to continue the momentum else more chop
Bulls still need to claim 18625 to see upside move continue but claiming 18568 would give bulls lot more confidence and momentum

Possible bullish plays:

In addition to the level-by-level bullish strategies outlined below, several other bullish scenarios may unfold:

If Sunday/Monday sees support at 18460/30, consider initiating long positions with targets at 18505/18530. Upon reclaiming 18530, 18568 may come into play.
A price retreat to 18390, swiftly followed by recovery to 18430, could present an attractive long setup, with an initial target at 18505.
Another opportunity arises if the price dips to 18275/18245 and promptly rebounds to 18275/80, indicating a favorable long trade possibility.
Should the price drop to 18225/18215 and promptly recover to 18245, a long trade with a target of 18335 may become feasible.

Possible bearish plays:

Should 18430 falter, adopting level-by-level bearish plays outlined below remains prudent.
Additionally, traders anticipating market shorting during upward movements may find some opportunities:
a) Failure at 18505 could trigger a swift descent to 18460, followed by 18430.
b) Rejection at 18530, followed by failed support at 18505, may lead to testing 18390.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: With 14265/14140 as the stronghold, the sights are set on 20320/22640.
🐻 Bearish: The shift to bearish sentiment will be signaled by a downturn in the monthly trend.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish Goal: As long as 16690 remains unbroken, aspirations extend to 19035/19710/20190.
🐻 Bearish Goal: Monitoring the weekly trend will guide decisions regarding bearish inclinations.

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: Holding ground at 18430 and reclaiming 18620 could pave the way for 18625/18695/18790+.
🐻 Bearish: Failure to uphold 18430 suggests downward pressure, with targets at 18300/18225-.

Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):

If 18460 or 18430 serves as support and 18568 is claimed, anticipate targets at 18695/18735.
Subsequent milestones include 18735 (leading to 18820/18870) and 18820 (ushering in 19000/19035/19075).

Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):

If 18430 falters, brace for downward movement towards 18390/18335/18300.
Further decline may target 18250/18225 upon breaching 18300, with subsequent levels at 18130 and 18065/18050.

Zoomed-out View:

🐂 Bullish: as long 18050 holds or reclaimed, 19035+ in play

🐻 Bearish: if 18050 fails to hold, 17860/17825/17675- in play

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 18505/18530, 18568*, 18603/18625, 18695, 18735, 18790, 18820, 18870*, 18925, 19000, 19035/19075*

Support: 18460/18430*, 18390, 18335, 18300*, 18275, 18225*, 18130, 18065/18050*

Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

Keeping flag levels same as last week price didn't move up

Orange Flag: A close below 18225 may cast doubts on the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 18050 during a red day could question the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: A close below 17675 on a red day may indicate potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

📈 Weekly Report: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂

Weekly Chart Daily Chart

Analysis:

Strong bullish momentum was evident last week as bulls firmly held the 2086.7 support level and successfully claimed 2138, meeting expectations.
Once 2138 was secured, the price swiftly reached the initial target of 2162, reaching a high of 2161.8. However, a sharp pullback followed across other indices, likely attributed to end-of-month price actions.
Despite the pullback, the bullish bias remains intact for the upcoming week. However, caution is warranted if 2138/2133.5 fails to hold, potentially leading to a back test of 2122/2108, and a possible red week closure.
The March candle holds the key for continued upward momentum towards 2247/2300+ as long as it remains supportive.
Holding levels at 2142/2138 could extend last week's bullish momentum, potentially driving the price back to 2162 and 2169. Conversely, a failure at 2133.5 could trigger a deeper pullback towards 2122/2108.

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long as 1867 holds, targets remain at 2247/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: A shift to bearish sentiment will be signaled by a downturn in the monthly trend.

Monthly Viewpoint:

🐂 Bullish: As long as 2053/2032 remains unbroken, targets are set at 2247/2300+.
🐻 Bearish: Monitoring the weekly trend will inform decisions regarding bearish inclinations.

Weekly Perspective:

🐂 Bullish: Holding levels at 2142/2138 and reclaiming 2152.6 could pave the way for 2169/2190.
🐻 Bearish: A failure at 2133.5 may lead to downside targets at 2122/2108-.

Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):

If 2142/2138 remains intact and 2152.6 is reclaimed, targets include 2162.5/2169.
Further milestones include 2169 (ushering in 2176.5/2190) and 2190 (leading to 2198).

Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):

A breach of 2133.5 may trigger downward movement towards 2125.8/2122.
Subsequent levels include 2122 (targeting 2108/2102) and 2102 (potentially leading to 2095/2091.5).

Zoomed-out View:

🐂 Bullish: Holding or reclaiming 2095 suggests targets at 2190/2198.
🐻 Bearish: A failure at 2047.8 may lead to downside targets at 2027/2018/2002-.

🔑 Key Levels:

Resistance: 2152.6, 2162.5*, 2169*, 2176.5, 2190*, 2198, 2209.5*

Support: 2142/2138, 2133.5, 2125.8/2122*, 2108/2102, 2095/2091.5*, 2086.7, 2078, 2064

Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:

As market moved up, moving flag levels up

Orange Flag: A close below 2091.5 may cast doubts on the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 2047.8 during a red day could question the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: A close below 2009 on a red day may indicate potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

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TradersNvestor's Actionable Insights

Weekly Charts Reading for 4/1- 4/5

Coil, Unwind or Sprint?

How’s last week?

Week Ahead (4/1 – 4/5)

Events Calendar:

#ES_F / $SPX Futures:

#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:

#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:

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