Weekly Charts Reading for 3/4- 3/8
Forward or Fallward?
How’s last week?
Nice green bullish performance across the board this week, except for #YM.
#ES reached a new all-time high.
#NQ also hit a new all-time high.
#YM achieved a new all-time high and met my initial monthly target of 39210.
#RTY marked a new 52-week high
#DXY closed the week in the red, just below the key level of 103.890 mentioned last weekend on X post .
Slowly re-engaging in trading after an extended break.
Regarding my recent vacation:
Despite my intentions to recharge during this time, unexpected stressors arose, preventing me from fully rejuvenating. Nevertheless, I am grateful to be back and will gradually work on newsletter activities as time allows.
Thank you for your ongoing understanding and support.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (3/4 – 3/8)
All indices closed the week strongly in the green except for #YM, suggesting a prevailing bullish sentiment.
However, considering four consecutive months of green closes, there's a possibility that #ES, #NQ, and #YM might need a pause. It's uncertain whether this adjustment will occur this week or the next, but caution is advised in light of this possibility.
Looks like #RTY could be poised for an upward price movement.
Additionally, it's probable that #DXY will continue its decline after a brief back test early in the week. In such a scenario, equities, especially #RTY, might experience an uplift.
If any of the indices close a day below the key levels identified in their respective analyses, the weekly bias could shift to bearish.
The bullish momentum from Friday may carry over to Sunday or Monday. However, from Tuesday onwards, various reports and Powell's testimony may introduce market volatility.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
Next week will be filled with significant events starting on Tuesday. Expect the usual employment reports and unemployment claims, along with Friday's NFP / Unemployment report, to drive market volatility. Additionally, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell as he testifies in the House on Wednesday and in the Senate on Thursday.
Note: When I refer to volatility, I mean the maximum daily price swing, especially with significant fluctuations, not the VIX index
Note about charts:
Links to daily and weekly charts are provided under each chart for you to look at more detailed levels
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Last week, as mentioned on X, the crucial weekly level to maintain bullish momentum from the preceding week was 5050.
During the first three days of last week, the price exhibited a slow, choppy descent to 5060.
Bulls intervened at that point, swiftly propelling the price upwards in a predominantly unidirectional movement, reaching a new all-time high of 5149.
Key levels for the bulls to sustain momentum from Friday are 5122 and 5112.
The mini breakout from Friday remains valid until a close below 5089.
A failure to hold 5112 and a quick drop to 5107, with a bullish reclaim of 5112.
Similarly, a failure at 5102 could result in a quick move to 5094, with a bullish reclaim of 5102.
If 5063 fails to hold, and drops to 5050/5046, followed by a same-day recovery to 5065, would be considered bullish.
It's noteworthy that a red day close below 5060 triggers the first red flag, suggesting a potential questioning of the short-term daily uptrend, possibly leading to more red days.
Furthermore, as long as 4960 holds, the weekly bullish sentiment remains intact.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 4420/4350 holds, focus on 5615/6110+.
🐻 Bearish: Trend determination upon monthly trend shift to bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: As long as 4603/4548 holds/reclaimed, focus on 5256.
🐻 Bearish Goal: Bears hold at 4797 or 4790, potential downside to 4603/4548.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 5122/5112 holds, targets are 5162/5195/5226+.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 5102 implies targets of 5090/5063/5050-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If support at 5122/5112 holds, targets shift to 5148/5162.
A successful claim of 5162 sets sights on 5185/5195.
Closure above 5195 indicates focus on 5209/5226.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 5112 fails, targets shift to 5102/5090.
Subsequent failure at 5102 leads to 5072/5063.
If 5063 fails, downside targets are 5050/5016-.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 5122/5112 holds or is reclaimed, 5256 is in play.
🐻Bearish: Failure at 5102 may lead to targets of 5063/5050.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5148*, 5162*, 5185, 5195*, 5209*, 5226, 5256*
Support: 5132, 5122*, 5112*, 5102, 5090*, 5063*, 5050*, 5030, 5016*
Red Flags: Watch for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As the market moved upward, flag levels have been adjusted upwards for early detection of short-term trend changes as follows:
Orange Flag: A close below 5089 questions the daily uptrend
1st Red Flag: A close below 5060 on a red day may suggest questioning of the short-term weekly uptrend bias
2nd Red Flag: Market closure below 4960 on a red day indicates potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
The strong green weekly close maintains a bullish bias.
Caution is warranted due to four consecutive strong green months, raising concerns about the sustainability of the bullish trend.
Friday's mini breakout is likely to prompt a back test of 18140/18080.
Don’t know when this back test will occur this week or later.
As long as 18030 holds, the mini breakout remains intact, with a close below triggering an orange flag and potentially bringing in more red days.
Conversely, a following day's move negating this trigger by closing green above the previous day suggests stronger bullish sentiment, potentially leading to a new all-time high.
Bulls need to defend 18140 to sustain Friday's momentum towards 18700+.
18080 serves as the last level for bulls to defend; failure to do so could embolden bears.
If bulls hold 18285/18240 on Sunday, a quick move to 18450/18500 is likely, where a pullback could occur.
Long positions may be considered upon seeing a bounce at 18140, with caution advised for positions initiated at 18285, 18240, and 18205. Keeping smaller position size or taking quick profit for long trades here may be cautious approach.
On the bearish side, a swift move to 18450/18500 followed by a sharp pullback to close the day in red below 18240 could invite more bearish sentiment.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 14265/14140 holds, focus on 20320/22640.
🐻 Bearish: Trend determination upon monthly trend shift to bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: As long as 15955/15465 holds, focus on 19035/19710/20190.
🐻 Bearish Goal: As long as 17040 holds, downside targets are 16020/15955/15465.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 18140 holds, targets are 18700/18870+.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 18140 implies targets of 18030/17920-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 18240 or 18140 holds, targets shift to 18450/18500.
Upon claiming 18450, focus shifts to 18585.
Upon claiming 18585, targets are 18675/18700.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 18140 fails, targets shift to 18080/18030.
If 18030 fails, targets are 17920/17860.
If 17860 fails, downside targets are 17825/17785.
Zoomed-out View:
bullish: As long as 18080/18030 holds or is reclaimed, focus on 19035+.
bearish: Failure at 18030 could lead to targets of 17860/17825-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 18450/18500*, 18585, 18675/18700*, 18870*, 19035*, 19075, 19170
Support: 18285/18240, 18205*, 18140*, 18080*, 17860, 17825*, 17700, 17372*
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Orange Flag: A close below 18030 questions the daily uptrend
1st Red Flag: A close below 17825 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 17372 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#YM_F / #DJI Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Week before last, achieved the first monthly target of 39210, yet failed to close the day above it since then, maintaining a bearish weekly bias until bulls can reclaim 39210 for upside continuation.
Friday's close in green, however, rejected the back test level of 39165, retaining a bearish daily bias.
Two immediate key support levels are 39065 and 39015; if bulls can hold and reclaim 39165, the daily bias might shift to bullish.
Bulls remain weak until reclaiming 39210, with a possibility of retesting 38915/38880 until then.
This week, 39015 serves as the bull/bear line, with bullish trades above and bearish trades below.
A drop below 39015 to 38875, followed by a quick recovery above 39015 on the same day, would keep bulls in play.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 35315/33915 holds, focus on 41900/45030+.
🐻 Bearish: Determination upon monthly trend shift to bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish target: As long as 36750/36602 holds, focus on 39210/41310+ (first target 39210 hit).
🐻 Bearish target: Determination upon weekly trend shift to bearish.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 39065 or at least 39015 holds and 39210 is reclaimed, targets are 39370/39730.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 39015 implies targets of 38830/38790-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 39065 or at least 39015 holds, targets shift to 39325/39370.
Upon claiming 39370, focus shifts to 39600.
Upon claiming 39600, targets are 39730/39925.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 39015 fails, targets shift to 38915/38875.
If 38915 fails, targets are 38830/38790.
If 38790 fails, downside target is 38630.
Zoomed-out View:
Bullish: As long as 39065/39015 holds and 39210 is reclaimed, focus on 39370/39730+.
Bearish: If bears hold 39210 and 38875 fails to hold, focus on 38630/38275.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 39165/39210, 39325/39370, 39600, 39730*, 39925, 40315
Support: 39065, 39015, 38915/38875, 38830/38790*, 38630*, 38400, 38255*, 37950, 37300**
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Orange Flag: A close below 38790 questions the daily uptrend
1st Red Flag: A close below 38630 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 38255 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
A strong green weekly close maintains a bullish bias on both daily and weekly timeframes.
Given that DXY hasn't convincingly closed below 103.890 (103.885 actual), a potential back test to 104.150 might lead to a red day or two for RTY.
However, as long as 2065 or at least 2052 holds, targets of 2094 & 2108+ remain in play.
Opportunities to go long around the support levels of 2065 & 2052 are worth considering.
If 2045 fails, but the subsequent day closes in green above 2052, bulls retain control.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 1867 holds, focus on 2047/2461/2575+.
🐻 Bearish: Determination upon monthly trend shift to bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 1994/1970 holds, focus on 2052/2461+ (first target 2052 hit).
🐻 Bearish: As long as 2038/2048 holds, downside targets are 1905/1880.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 2065 or at least 2052 holds, targets are 2094/2108/2138.
🐻 Bearish: Failure at 2045 implies targets of 2014/2009/2002-.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 2065 or at least 2052 holds, targets shift to 2081/2088.5/2094.
Upon claiming 2094, focus shifts to 2108.
Upon claiming 2108, targets are 2120/2130.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 2052 fails, targets shift to 2045/2038.
If 2045 fails, targets are 2030.
If 2030 fails, downside targets are 2014/2009.
Zoomed-out View:
Bullish: If 2065 or at least 2052 holds, focus on 2138/2169.
Bearish: If 2045 fails, focus on 2014/2009/2002.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 2075/2081, 2088.5/2094*, 2108, 2120, 2130/2138*, 2152
Support: 2065, 2056/2052, 2045, 2038, 2030*, 2014/2009*, 2002
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Orange Flag: A close below 2045 questions the daily uptrend
1st Red Flag: A close below 2009 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 1985 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#DXY / $USD:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Last week, the focus was on a close below 103.890. While this occurred last Monday, the subsequent three days' movements negated the bearish pressure, resulting in a week's close at 103.885.
This shift in behavior prompts a change in bias to bearish. However, there's hesitancy in confirming bearish control.
A red day close below 103.655 would embolden bears to target 102.900/102.160.
It's worth noting that while there's a somewhat inverse correlation between USD and #RTY, such correlation isn't observed between #NQ and #ES.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 104.150, 104.295*, 104.715*, 104.970, 105.640/105.735*
Support: 103.655*, 102.900*, 102.600, 102.400, 102.160*, 101.340*
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Orange Flag: A close below 103.655 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 102.900 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 102.000 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you are always on the right side of the market!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
So good to have your spot-on NQ analysis back. Hope you enjoyed your vacation! Looking forward to your "daily" recap and trade plan newsletter for NQ someday soon :)