Weekly Charts Reading for 3/31- 4/04
Fall Sneaks Into March
Due to limited time during the week, I may not post daily levels consistently, but I'll try when possible.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
How’s last week?
Last Sunday/Monday’s gap-up gave bulls a shot at my upside targets, even pushing into 2nd bear control levels—but they fell short of the 3rd. The rally fizzled, and bears took over.
Gold and Silver kept shining, with Platinum and Palladium showing some strength too.
Crude oil respected levels well—hope you caught the moves!
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (3/31 – 4/04)
Bears are still in control—that’s why I keep laying out how they’ll lose control step by step. Hope you’ve been following along!
I’ve also said many times: rallies happen in downtrends. The key is to take quick profits on long trades and not overstay your welcome. :)
Next week brings the usual economic reports starting Tuesday, but the real action is likely Friday with NFP and Powell speaking—plus Monday’s End-of-Month candle. Expect volatility!
Friday’s drop should ideally test key supports:
#ES: 5581/5535
#NQ: 19290/250/210
#RTY: 2016/2006/2001
#YM: 41640/590/450
If all hit support at the same time, expect a bounce.
If we gap down below these levels, this setup is invalid.
If we gap up, watch 1st and 2nd resistance levels—these will decide if there’s an End-of-Month relief bounce.
Quick take: Thursday’s high is key resistance. Bulls need to clear that, then Monday’s high to gain confidence—otherwise, bears still own the script.
Key Reminders:
Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).
I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.
Events Calendar :
Quick Summary:
#ES Bullish above 5665, Bearish below 5655
Bears control < 5855
Bears keep momentum < 5750
Very short term: Bearish < 5775
#NQ Bullish above 19660, Bearish below 19635
Bears control < 20605
Bears keep momentum < 20050
Very short term: Bearish < 20195
#RTY Bullish above 2045, Bearish below 2040
Bears control < 2170
Bears keep momentum < 2090
Very short term: Bearish < 2130
Bears must defend 2090 in retracement; if claimed on daily, 2072/2028 in play—if claimed on daily, new upside leg
As long as bears hold 2090, 2001/1983, 1960- in play
#YM Bullish above 41925, Bearish below 41925
Bears control < 43200
Bears keep momentum < 42730
Very short term: Bearish < 42945
Bears must defend 42730 in any retracement; if claimed on daily, 42945/43095 in play—if claimed on daily, new upside leg
As long as bears hold 42730, 41450/905/800, 40320- in play
#SI Bullish above 34.70, Bearish below 34.64
Very short term: Bearish < 35.33 & Bullish > 34.20/34.05
If 34.80/34.70 holds/reclaimed → 34.95, 35*, 35.32/35.35*, 35.45*, 35.57, 35.70*, 36*, 36.65*, 37*+
If 34.64 fails → 34.65, 34.40*, 34.27, 34.20**, 34.05**, 33.86, 33.57*, 33.37*-
Bulls lose control step by step: 34.12 → 34 → 33.37 → 32.45 → 32.21*
#GC Bullish above 3102, Bearish below 3091
Very short term: Bearish < 3123 & Bullish > 3091
If 3102 holds/reclaimed → 3123*/3130*, 3142, 3154*, 3167*, 3178*, 3225*+
If 3091 fails → 3080*, 3072*, 3066, 3058*, 3052**, 3041, 3033, 3026**-
Bulls lose control step by step: 3052 → 3026 → 3008* → 2988
#PL Bullish above 994, Bearish below 994
Very short term: Bearish < 1008 & Bullish > 994
If 994 holds/reclaims → 1001*, 1005/1009*, 1014*/1020*, 1032/37, 1049*+
If 994 fails → 988*, 981*, 978*/974, 967*, 960*, 956, 950/947*-
Bears lose control step by step: 995 → 1014* → 1032*
#PA Bullish above 969, Bearish below 956
Bulls weak < 993
Bears lose control step by step: 974 → 993* → 1020*
If 969 holds → 985*, 993*/996*, 1008, 1014/1020*, 1026*, 1040*, 1067*+
If 969 fails → 964*, 956/953*, 946*, 941, 934*, 925/922*, 917, 906-
Based on Feb close, if 900 fails to hold, fast move to test 825/813- likely
#CL Bullish above 69.30, Bearish below 68.80
Bears control < 74.75
Bears keep momentum < 71.25
Very short term: Bearish < 70, Bullish > 68.30
Bears lose control step by step: 68.58 → 70.30 → 71.25 → 73.20* → 74.75
If 68.80 holds → 69, 69.30/69.45*, 70**, 70.30, 70.60, 70.90, 71.25+
If 68.80 fails → 68.65, 68.40*/68.30**, 68*, 67.65*, 66.60*, 66.35*, 66.13, 65.92*-
Quick Plays:
#ES:
Key Levels Recap
Last week, bulls needed 5791 to reach 5845/54.
Monday reclaimed 5791 but topped out at 5837.25, missing 5845.
Wednesday lost 5791, and bears controlled the rest of the week.
Current Outlook
Bullish above 5665, Bearish below 5655
Bears control < 5855
Bears keep momentum < 5750
Very short term: Bearish < 5775
Bears must defend 5750; if reclaimed on daily, 5830/5855 in play → possible upside leg
If bears hold 5775, targets: 5538/5500, 5405-
Bears lose control step by step:
5665 → 5780 → 5830 → 5885 → 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069
Ideal Bullish Scenario
Bulls hold 5581/57 as support, reclaim 5665 → targets: 5712, 5725*, 5740/48*, 5757, 5772*+
Ideal Bearish Scenario
Bears hold 5650/5665 or below → targets: 5595, 5557*, 5535*, 5500, 5403*-
Big Picture
If 5665 reclaimed: 5712/25*, 5748*, 5780*, 5807*, 5845*, 5869*, 5885*+ in play
Since 5651 failed on daily: 5595*, 5557, 5538*/34*- in play
If 5538 fails on daily: 5500*, 5485/64*, 5403*/5393*- in play
If 5393 fails on daily: 5345*/30*, 5300*, 5202*- likely
Support Levels
Intra-day: 5595*, 5581*, 5557*, 5538/34*, 5525, 5514*
Daily: 5538*/34*, 5500*/5485*, 5448*
Weekly: 5403/5394*, 5330*/5300*, 5215/5200*
Monthly: 5500, 5300*, 5050*
Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005
Resistance Levels
Intra-day: 5610, 5625*, 5635*, 5650, 5665*/70, 5712*, 5735*/45*
Daily: 5742/50*, 5780*, 5830*, 5845*/55*, 5870*/85*
Weekly: 5740, 5773*, 5967*, 6000*/6016*
Monthly: 5772*, 5970*, 6065*, 6165*
Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long 5405/5246 holds, 6515/7300+ is in play.
🐻 Bearish: As long bears hold 6051, 5740/5405/5330- in play
#NQ:
Key Levels Recap
Last week, bulls reclaimed 20290 but lost it on Wednesday, and bears controlled the rest of the week.
Current Outlook
Bullish above 19660, Bearish below 19635
Bears control < 20605
Bears keep momentum < 20065
Very short term: Bearish < 20195
Bears must defend 20065; if reclaimed on daily, 20195/20605 in play → possible upside leg
If 20050 holds, targets: 19290/250, 18400-
Multi-week downtrend remains until 21410/460 is reclaimed on daily.
Since February, I noted that losing 20940 would start a multi-week downtrend.
February 27 confirmed this as 20940 failed, and bears have controlled the market for four weeks.
Bears lose control step by step when green day closes above:
20090 → 20200 → 20605 → 20735 → 21120 → 21250 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815
Ideal Bullish Scenario
Bulls hold 19290/250, reclaim 19660 → targets: 19865, 19995, 20065*, 20200*, 20320*, 20485*+
Ideal Bearish Scenario
Bears hold 19635/19660 or below → targets: 19295*, 19170/130*, 18970, 18830*, 18400*-
Big Picture
If 19660 reclaimed: 19865, 19995, 20065*, 20200*, 20320*, 20485*, 20540, 20605*+
Since 19600 failed on daily: Next downside targets: 19295, 19170*/130*, 18400*
If 19295 fails on daily: 19170*, 18970, 18835*, 18725, 18590*- in play
If 19170 fails: Expect a faster drop to 18590*, 18385*
Support Levels
Intra-day: 19290*/250*, 19170/130*, 19140, 19040, 18930*, 18860*/830*, 18730, 18685*, 18590*
Daily: 19295*, 19130*, 18835*, 18725, 18590*/550*
Weekly: 19170*, 18380*/340*, 17875*
Monthly: 18590*, 18435*/335*, 18165*
Yearly: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465
Resistance Levels
Intra-day: 19460/495, 19600/635*, 19660*, 19865*, 19985*, 20065*, 20160*, 20205*
Daily: 20000/065*, 20200*, 20540/605*, 20735*, 20155*/215*, 20290*, 20605/650*, 20735*, 21005*, 21120*
Weekly: 20200*, 20540*, 21120*
Monthly: 20200*, 21005*, 21460*/570*
Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700
Yearly View
🐂 Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.
🐻 Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 20070/040, 19500*, 18840*/400*- in play.
[BONUS]
The following interpretations were generated by ChatGPT using my method and the chart levels above. Use your judgment to make your own decisions.
Not financial advice.
#ES
Bullish Above 5665: Candle close above 5665 signals bullish strength. A long trade here targets 5712 initially, followed by 5725, 5748, 5757, and higher levels if momentum sustains.
Bearish Below 5655: Candle close below 5655 confirms bearish momentum. A short trade here targets 5595, 5557, 5538, and lower levels depending on continuation.
Bears Control < 5855: Broader bearish control persists until bulls reclaim 5855 on a daily close.
Bears Keep Momentum < 5750: Price must break and close above 5750 (daily) to weaken bearish momentum.
Very Short Term Bearish < 5775: Bears maintain short-term control below 5775.
Bulls Must Claim 5750: If bulls reclaim 5750 (daily), upside targets include 5780, 5830, 5855, and potentially higher levels.
Trade Scenarios:
Long Scenarios:
Above 5665: Entry on a 15m/1hr close above 5665. Targets:
First: 5712 → 5725.
Next: 5748 → 5757 → 5780.
Above 5750 (Daily): If bulls reclaim 5750, upside targets expand to 5830, 5855, and potentially 5885+.
Short Scenarios:
Below 5655: Entry on a 15m/1hr close below 5655. Targets:
First: 5595 → 5557.
Next: 5538 → 5500 → 5403.
Below 5538 (Daily): A daily close below 5538 signals broader bearish control. Targets expand to 5500 → 5485 → 5403 → 5393.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Checkpoints:
Bulls regain control step-by-step: 5665 → 5780 → 5830 → 5885 → 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069.
Watch for rejection or consolidation at these levels for potential short setups.
Support Checkpoints:
Bears test bulls' resolve at critical levels: 5595 → 5538 → 5500 → 5403.
Fail below these levels confirm bearish continuation.
#NQ
Bullish Above 19660: Candle close above 19660 indicates bullish strength. If reclaimed: Targets: 19865, 19995, 20065, 20200, 20320, and progressively higher levels like 20485 and 20540.
Bearish Below 19635: Candle close below 19635 confirms bearish strength. If broken: Targets: 19295, 19170, 18970, 18830, and deeper levels like 18400 if bears maintain control.
Very Short Term Bearish < 20195: Bears hold short-term control below 20195. If this level remains intact: Downside Targets: 19295, 19170, and 18400. Bulls above 19660 could reclaim momentum for rebounds targeting 19865, 19995, and 20065.
Bulls Must Claim 20065: A daily close above 20065 signals upside potential:
Targets: 20195, 20605, and progressively higher levels like 20735 and 21120 if bulls gain strength.
Bears Keep Momentum < 20065: Price below 20065 signals bearish dominance:
Bulls must reclaim 20065 (daily) to weaken bearish momentum and open upside targets.
Trade Scenarios:
Long Scenarios:
Above 19660: Entry on a 15m/1hr close above 19660. Targets:
First: 19865 → 19995.
Next: 20065 → 20200 → 20320.
Above 20065 (Daily): If bulls reclaim 20065, upside targets expand to 20195, 20605, and potentially higher levels.
Short Scenarios:
Below 19635: Entry on a 15m/1hr close below 19635. Targets:
First: 19295 → 19170.
Next: 18970 → 18830 → 18400.
Below 19295 (Daily): A daily close below 19295 signals broader bearish control. Targets expand to 19170, 18970, and potentially 18385.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Checkpoints:
Bulls regain control step-by-step: 19660 → 20065 → 20195 → 20605 → 20735 → 21120 → 21250 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815.
Watch for rejection or consolidation at these levels to confirm bearish setups.
Support Checkpoints:
Bears test bulls' resolve at critical levels: 19295 → 19170 → 18970 → 18400.
Fail below these levels confirm bearish continuation.
Guidelines for Entry Confirmation
Candle Close Rules:
Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.
Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.
Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.
Handling Breakouts / Breakdowns:
High Probability of Initial Failure:
Be prepared to lose the first breakout/breakdown trade if it reverses.
Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short/long if risk reward is at least 1:2.
Second attempts at breakout/breakdown levels are likely more successful.
Better Entries: After a failed breakout/breakdown, often you get a better long/short entry at the next support/resistance level when price reverses upward/downward.
Typical Stop Loss Examples:
#ES_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.
#NQ_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.
Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.
What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?
More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above
Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly
Short-term: Daily
Long-term: Weekly
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.