Weekly Charts Reading for 3/24- 3/28
Bulls Whisper, Bears Smirk
Chart levels now refer to the June 2025 contract.
Due to limited time during the week, I may not post daily levels consistently, but I'll try when possible.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
How’s last week?
Got caught up with other commitments last week and totally overlooked the contract rollover—ended up writing the entire newsletter based on March contracts for #ES and #NQ.
The rollover to June started Monday, but March contracts were still in play until Friday.
Called for a relief rally last week, and the market delivered—right on cue!
When prices stay below Bulls Weak < levels, rallies keep getting sold off.
But when support holds, we get more sideways chop. #ES and #NQ mostly stayed range-bound last week.
What do you think of my take on metals and crude oil?
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (3/24 – 3/28)
Next week is packed with usual economic reports—Thursday’s GDP and unemployment data could bring some extra volatility.
Bulls are still weak and won’t be in the clear until they reclaim key levels outlined in How Bears Lose Control.
Bulls still got a lot of work to do—first reclaim last Wednesday’s high, then last week’s high on the daily and weekly.
If they can’t, bears stay in control—especially if last Monday’s low fails on the daily, opening the door for deeper downside.
Key Reminders:
Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).
I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.
Events Calendar :
Quick Summary:
#ES Bullish above 5692/84, Bearish below 5660
Bulls weak < 5885
Bears keep momentum < 5791
Very short term: Bullish > 5665
Bulls must defend 5651/5628 in deeper pullback; failure on daily likely starts new downtrend leg
#NQ Bullish above 19835/800, Bearish below 19660
Bulls weak < 21120
Bears keep momentum < 20290
Very short term: Bullish > 19680
Bulls must defend 19660/19600 in deeper pullback; failure on daily likely starts new downtrend leg
#RTY Bullish above 2068, Bearish below 2055
Bulls weak < 2290
Bears keep momentum < 2220
Very short term: Bullish > 2055
Bulls must defend 2041/2038 in deeper pullback; failure on daily likely starts new downtrend leg
#YM Bullish above 42170, Bearish below 41820
Bulls weak < 44120
Bulls keep momentum > 42810
Very short term: Bullish > 41820
Bulls must defend 41585/41450 in deeper pullback; failure on daily likely starts new downtrend leg
#SI Bullish above 33.37, Bearish below 33.16
Very short term: Bearish < 34.14/34.65 & Bullish > 33.37/32.45
If 33.37 holds/reclaimed: 33.645, 33.84, 34.14*, 34.42*, 34.65*, 34.80, 35*, 35.18*, 35.45+
If 33.37 fails: 33.16*, 33*, 32.85*, 32.45*/35*, 32.27*, 32.15**, 32*-
Bears lose control step by step: 34.14 → 34.65 → 35*
Bulls lose control step by step: 33.37 → 32.45 → 32.21*
#GC Bullish above 3020, Bearish below 3009
Very short term: Bearish < 3058 & Bullish > 2995
If 3020 holds/reclaimed: 3031, 3044*, 3054*/58*, 3065*, 3080*/90*, 3115*+
If 3009 fails: 3004*/3002, 2995*, 2989**, 2974*, 2950*, 2943*, 2920*, 2911*, 2893*-
Bears lose control step by step: 3031 → 3044 → 3058*
Bulls lose control step by step: 3031 → 2988 → 2942*
#PL Bullish above 977, Bearish below 964
Very short term: Bearish < 1014 & Bullish > 964
If 977 holds/reclaims: 991*/995*, 1000*, 1005*, 1014*/1020*, 1032/37, 1049*+
If 969/964 fails: 960*, 956, 950/947*, 938, 925*-
Bears lose control step by step: 995 → 1014* → 1032*
#PA Bullish above 954, Bearish below 946
Bulls weak < 993
Bears lose control step by step: 974 → 993* → 1020*
If 954 holds: 965, 970/974*, 986*, 993*/996*, 1008, 1014/1020*, 1026*, 1040*+
If 954 fails: 946*, 941, 934*, 925/922*, 917, 906-
Based on Feb close, if 900 fails to hold, fast move to test 825/813- likely
#CL Bullish above 67.70, Bearish below 67.65
Bears control < 74.75
Bears keep momentum < 71.25
Very short term: Bullish > 67
Bears lose control step by step: 68.58 → 70.30 → 71.25 → 73.20* → 74.75
If 67.70 holds: 68.45/68.58, 69.80, 70.30, 70.60, 70.90, 71.25+
If 67.65 fails: 67*/66.95*, 66.60*, 66.35*, 66.13, 65.92*, 65.53*, 65.22*, 65*-
Quick Plays:
#ES:
Key Levels Recap
Sunday/Monday contract rollover opened with a gap up. Monday’s low held Friday’s high, setting the bull/bear line for the week.
Post-FOMC, price surged to 5772 but failed to claim it. That remains the key level for bulls to break for further upside.
Current Outlook
Bullish above 5692/84, Bearish below 5660
Bulls weak < 5885
Bears keep momentum < 5791
Very short term: Bullish > 5665
Bulls must defend 5651/5628 on deeper pullbacks; failure on the daily could start a new downtrend leg.
Bears control until 6016 is claimed on the daily. In the very short term, if 5665/50 holds, bulls likely to backtest 5757, 5772, 5791, 5845/54, 5870+
If 5791 is claimed on the daily, bears start losing short-term momentum.
FOMC squeeze (Wednesday) almost hit 5772 (high: 5770.5) but failed to claim.
Thursday/Friday: Moved down to retest 5651 (Monday’s low).
Friday bounce off 5651 led to a green close, signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, bulls still need to clear key levels for bears to retreat.
Currently trading below key monthly supports (5815/5742).
Bears lose control step-by-step: 5772 → 5791 → 5885 → 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069
Ideal Bullish Scenario
Bulls hold 5698/92 as support and reclaim 5724/5732 quickly, targeting 5757, 5772/77, 5791+
Ideal Bearish Scenario
Bears hold 5724/5732 or lower and claim 5692, then break 5665 (hourly/4H close below) to target 5652, 5637, 5628, 5611, 5595, 5557, 5535-
Big Picture
If 5772 reclaimed: Targets 5791, 5807, 5845, 5869, 5885+
If 5651 fails on daily: Targets 5628, 5595, 5557, 5538/34-
If 5538 fails on daily: Targets 5500, 5485/64, 5403/5393-
If 5393 fails on daily: Targets 5345/30, 5300, 5202-
Support Levels
Intra-day: 5697/92, 5684, 5678, 5670, 5665/62, 5657, 5651, 5637
Daily: 5670/5651, 5628, 5538, 5500/5485, 5448
Weekly: 5403/5394, 5330/5300, 5215/5200
Monthly: 5500, 5300, 5050
Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005
Resistance Levels
Intra-day: 5732, 5740, 5754/58, 5772, 5809, 5824
Daily: 5732, 5758/72, 5791, 5845, 5870/85
Weekly: 5772, 5967, 6000/6016
Monthly: 5772, 5970, 6065, 6165
Yearly: 6165/6460, 6515/6640, 7300
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long 5405/5246 holds, 6515/7300+ is in play.
🐻 Bearish: As long bears hold 6051, 5740/5405/5330- in play
#NQ:
Key Levels Recap:
Last week, bulls needed 19600/475 to hold for 20150/205, 20290 targets.
Monday's squeeze hit 20167 but rejected 20150.
Tuesday's low tested and held 19600 (19604.75).
Wednesday's high retested 20150 (20143 high).
Friday's low retested 19600 (19602.25 low).
This established a key range: 19600 - 20150.
Current Outlook:
Bullish above: 19835/800
Bearish below: 19660
Bulls weak below: 21120
Bears keep momentum below: 20290
Very short term: Bullish above 19680
Bulls must defend: 19660/19600 on pullbacks; failure on daily starts new downtrend.
Multi-week downtrend likely continues unless 21410/460 is reclaimed on daily.
Key resistance for bears to hold: 20290—until bulls reclaim this, 18840/18380 remains possible.
Based on Friday's close: As long as 19895/800 holds, expect 20050/20155, 20210*, 20290*+.
Bears lose control step by step with daily green closes above:
20155 → 20290 → 20735 → 21120 → 21250 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls hold 19895/800 and quickly reclaim 20060 and 20155 to push toward 20290, 20325, 20410, 20515*, 20735*+.
Ideal Bearish Scenario:
Bears hold 20060/20155 or below, then claim 19800 first, then 19680 (hourly/4hr red close) to target 19600/475, 19395/295, 18970, 18830*-.
Big Picture:
If 20155 reclaimed (daily): 20290*, 20325, 20515*, 20650*, 20735*, 21120*+ in play.
If 19600 fails (daily): Next down leg toward 19295, 19170/130, 18400* possible**.
If 19295 fails (daily): 19170*, 18970, 18835*, 18725, 18590*- in play.
If 19170 fails: Expect a sharper move toward 18590, 18385**.
Support Levels:
Intra-day: 19930, 19895*, 19855*, 19800*, 19710*, 19680/660*, 19600*, 19545, 19440*, 19390*, 19340*
Daily: 19600*, 19295*, 19130*, 18835*, 18725, 18590*/550*
Weekly: 19500*, 19170*, 18380*/340*
Monthly: 19590*, 18590*, 18335*, 18165*
Yearly: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465
Resistance Levels:
Intra-day: 19985, 20060*, 20110*, 20165*, 20225, 20260/290*, 20325, 20430*, 20515*
Daily: 20155*/215*, 20290*, 20605/650*, 20735*, 21005*, 21120*
Weekly: 20215/290*, 21120*, 21700*/815*
Monthly: 21005*, 21460*/570*, 22245*
Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.
Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.
[BONUS]
The following interpretations were generated by ChatGPT using my method and the chart levels above. Use your judgment to make your own decisions.
Not financial advice.
#ES
🐂 🐻
Bullish Above 5692/84: Candle close above 5692 signals bullish strength. A long trade here targets 5724/5732 initially, followed by 5757, 5772, 5791, and higher levels if momentum sustains.
Bearish Below 5660: Candle close below 5660 indicates bearish strength. A short trade here targets 5652, 5637, 5628, and potentially lower levels depending on continuation.
Very Short Term (Bullish > 5665): Bulls maintain short-term strength as long as price stays above 5665. This level is crucial for immediate bullish activity, and if held, a rebound to 5757, 5772, or higher is likely.
Bulls Weak < 5885: Even if bulls reclaim key short-term levels, they remain weak until 5885 is claimed on daily & weekly.
Bulls Must Defend 5651/5628: On deeper pullbacks, 5651/5628 are critical daily levels for bulls to hold. A daily close below 5651 confirms bearish dominance, signaling a potential new downtrend with targets like 5595, 5557, and lower.
Bears Keep Momentum < 5791: Price must break and close above 5791 (daily) to weaken bearish momentum. Failing to do so keeps bears in control in the short to medium term.
Bears Control Until 6016 is Claimed (Daily): Broader bearish control persists until bulls reclaim 6016 on a daily close.
Trade Scenarios:
Long Scenarios:
Above 5692: Entry on a 15m/1hr close above 5692. Targets:
First: 5724/5732.
Next: 5757 → 5772 → 5791.
Above 5772 (Big Picture): If 5772 is reclaimed, targets include 5791, 5807, and higher levels step-by-step: 5845 → 5869 → 5885+.
Short Scenarios:
Below 5660: Entry on a 15m/1hr close below 5660. Targets:
First: 5652 → 5637.
Next: 5628 → 5611 → 5595.
Below 5651 (Daily): A daily close below 5651 signals broader bearish control. Targets expand to 5557, 5538, 5500/5485, or lower.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Checkpoints:
Bears lose control levels by level: 5772 → 5791 → 5885 → 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069.
Pay attention to rejection or consolidation around these levels for short opportunities.
Support Checkpoints:
Bears test bulls' resolve at: 5697/92 → 5665/62 → 5651 → 5628.
Fails below these levels confirm bearish setups.
#NQ
Bullish Above 19835/800: A candle close above this level signals bullish momentum. Long trades here target 20050, 20155, 20210, and 20290 progressively.
Bearish Below 19660: A candle close below 19660 confirms bearish momentum. Short trades here target 19600, 19395, 19295, and lower levels if the downtrend continues.
Very Short Term (Bullish Above 19680): Bulls maintain short-term momentum if price stays above 19680. This supports a potential rebound to 19835/895, 20050, 20155, 20290 or higher.
Bulls Weak Below 21120: Bulls will remain weak in the broader trend unless 21120 is reclaimed.
Bulls Must Defend 19660/19600: These levels are critical for pullbacks. Failure to hold 19600 on a daily close starts a new downtrend toward 19395, 19170, or even lower.
Bears Keep Momentum Below 20290: Until price closes above 20290 (daily), bears retain the upper hand in the medium term.
Multi-Week Downtrend: The broader downtrend persists unless 21410/21460 is reclaimed on a daily close.
Trade Scenarios:
Long Scenarios:
Above 19835/800: Entry on a 15m/1hr close above 19835/800. Targets:
First: 20050 → 20155.
Next: 20210 → 20290 → 20325+.
Above 20155 (Big Picture): A daily close above 20155 signals step-by-step bullish progress. Targets include 20290, 20515, and higher: 20735 → 21120+.
Short Scenarios:
Below 19660: Entry on a 15m/1hr close below 19660. Targets:
First: 19600 → 19395.
Next: 19295 → 19170 → 18835.
Below 19600 (Daily): A daily close below 19600 confirms a new downtrend. Targets expand to 19295, 18970, and possibly 18385 or lower.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Checkpoints:
Bears lose control step-by-step: 20155 → 20290 → 20735 → 21120 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815.
Rejections near these levels may provide opportunities for short trades.
Support Checkpoints:
Bears test bulls' resolve at key support levels: 19835 → 19680 → 19660 → 19600.Failure at these levels signals bearish continuation.
#CL
Key Inflection Zone (67.65–67.70):
Above 67.70: Signals bullish potential. I would look for long opportunities if the price holds this level, aiming for targets like 68.58 initially, then progressively higher at 69.80, 70.30, and so on, based on momentum.
Below 67.65: Indicates bearish sentiment. Short positions could be considered with targets in the sequence you've outlined, starting with 67 and moving down through the marked levels (e.g., 66.95, 66.60, etc.).
Short-Term Sentiment: Even if the price dips below 67.65, as long as it stays above 67, bulls can maintain very short-term strength. This level becomes a key gauge for intraday rebounds or potential long setups targeting 67.70 and beyond. Caution is warranted near resistance points like 68.58 or 70.30, where bulls might face challenges.
A close below 67 shifts the sentiment fully to bearish, opening downside targets step by step: 66.95 → 66.60 → 66.35, etc.
Bearish Momentum and Control:
Bears maintain momentum below 71.25, so this level is critical for evaluating bullish strength. If the price breaks above 71.25, it signals weakening bearish control, progressing further at levels like 73.20 and 74.75.
Until 74.75 is breached, bears maintain broader control, making it a potential area for short setups if price approaches but fails to break.
Step-by-Step Bears lose control (68.58 → 70.30 → 71.25 → 73.20 → 74.75):
Each of these levels acts as a checkpoint for bulls. A progressive reclaim by bulls indicates growing strength, and I’d consider adding to long positions above each level claimed, targeting the next one.
Strategy Suggestions:
Long Above 67.70: Look for confirmed support with volume. Target levels incrementally: 68.58 → 69.80 → 70.30 → 70.60 → 70.90 → 71.25+.
Short Below 67.65: Watch for failed retests of 67.65 or 67.00. Then aim for lower targets e.g., 66.95 → 66.60 → 66.35, etc.
Observe Key Levels: Pay attention to reactions at 71.25 (momentum threshold) and 74.75 (control threshold). These are critical areas for directional bias.
Guidelines for Entry Confirmation
Candle Close Rules:
Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.
Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.
Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.
Handling Breakouts / Breakdowns:
High Probability of Initial Failure:
Be prepared to lose the first breakout/breakdown trade if it reverses.
Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short/long if risk reward is at least 1:2.
Second attempts at breakout/breakdown levels are likely more successful.
Better Entries: After a failed breakout/breakdown, often you get a better long/short entry at the next support/resistance level when price reverses upward/downward.
Typical Stop Loss Examples:
#ES_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.
#NQ_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.
Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.
What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?
More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above
Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly
Short-term: Daily
Long-term: Weekly
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.