Weekly Charts Reading for 3/18- 3/22
Bullbreak?
How’s last week?
#ES hit a new all-time high on Thursday at 5253 but ended the week in red.
#NQ reached a new all-time high on Wednesday, yet bears held 18480 precisely, resulting in a red week as anticipated.
#YM saw bulls making a new all-time high on Thursday, closing the week above the previous week's high despite ending in red (close < open).
#RTY witnessed bi-directional movement ranging between 2048-2108.
#DXY as mentioned last week, after holding the first weekly support on March 8, bulls continued to push up.
Last week unfolded as expected with significant bidirectional movement.
#NQ_F bears defending precisely 18480 was highlight from my last weekly newsletter
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (3/18 – 3/22)
The cautious approach taken last week amid the bullish bias turned out to be spot-on.
Now that all four index futures ended the week with red candles, the market seems poised for further downward movement.
As long as they maintain their respective red flag levels next week, I'd consider it a healthy pullback for the bulls, regardless of the pace of the price decline.
It's likely that we'll see a narrow range move to the upside on Sunday, Monday, or even Tuesday if bulls manage to hold the key support levels from Friday.
That's just one of the possible scenarios.
As always, it comes down to trading level by level based on the plans outlined below.
With the Federal Reserve rate, FOMC statement, and Jerome Powell speaking next week, expect more significant bidirectional movements in the market again.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
Next week's packed with some big-ticket events, kicking off on Wednesday. The spotlight's on the Fed Fund rate and FOMC statement at 2 pm, which are bound to stir up some market action. Then, keep an eye out for Friday, especially at 9 am when Fed Chair JPowell takes the stage. Brace yourself for some good ol' volatility around these events, as always.
Note: When I refer to volatility, I mean the maximum daily price swing, especially with significant fluctuations, not the VIX index
Note about charts:
Check out the daily chart links provided for a closer look at the detailed levels. You'll see how perfectly the Fibonacci levels played out for #ES_F, #NQ_F, and #YM_F.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Last week concluded with a red close after precisely hitting the 5253 target, prompting a shift in bias to bearish.
Despite exhibiting weakness, the market is still maintaining the 5154/5145 support, warranting caution towards the bearish bias.
Failure to sustain 5186 on Friday marked a significant event, aligning with previous analysis.
Levels at 5112/5090 are now in play as long as bears defend 5222/5228.
On the bullish front, reclaiming 5202 with support at 5175 could initiate a retest of 5112/5222/5230 levels.
If 5175 fails, potential defense levels for bulls include 5154/5145 (weak), with 5112/5090 (strong) offering a possible entry points.
Moving the orange flag level up to 5145, a close below which may signal more bearish pressure.
Bulls need to reclaim 5202 to demonstrate conviction and aim for 5222 or 5230 to solidify commitment.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 4603/4548 holds/reclaimed, 5256 in focus (target hit with contract rollover)
🐻 Bearish Goal: if bears hold 4797 or 4790, 4603/4548 possible
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 5175/5169 holds and claims 5230, 5250/5266/5297+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5169 fails, 5145/5112/5090- in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If the support at 5175/5169 holds & claim 5202, 5212/5222/5230 next
Upon successfully claiming the 5230 level, the next targets on the radar are 5250/5266.
Should the market attain a close above 5266, the focus then shifts to the significant milestones of 5285/5297.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 5169 fails to hold, 5154/5145 would be the target
If 5145 fails, the next support levels to consider are 5122/5112
If 5112 fails, 5090/5060- becomes the downside targets.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: gains momentum upon reclaiming 5230/5250, with targets extending towards 5297/5310.
🐻 Bearish: a failure to hold 5175 could intensify bearish sentiment, with downside targets at 5145/5112/5090-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5194, 5202, 5212, 5222, 5230, 5243, 5253, 5266, 5273, 5285, 5297
Support: 5175/5169, 5154/5145, 5122/5112, 5098, 5090, 5072, 5060
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Moving orange flag level up to 5145
Orange Flag: A close below 5145, daily uptrend is in question
1st Red Flag: A close below 5060 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 4960 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Last week saw bears precisely defending18480, resulting in a red close with pending tests of 17975/17930.
Continuing with a bearish bias for the current week.
This week, if bears can defend levels at 18255 or 18300, a back test of 17960/17915 is likely.
Friday's afternoon price action suggests bulls are likely to defend 18040, potentially leading to a complete back test of 18255.
Bulls need to reclaim 18430 to resume the upside move.
Bear pressure persists until a green day closes above 18325, prompting quick, cautious profit-taking on long trades until then.
Friday's close triggered the orange flag, indicating a follow-up red day is likely, necessitating caution with swing long positions until 18325 is claimed.
Bullish bounces are anticipated around 17915 and 17825 levels.
A failure at 17825 could precipitate a sharp move down to 17700/17675.
Below 17700, around 17500/17480 becomes the next level of interest for long trades.
Intraday long trades will be considered if key support levels hold with a good setup on shorter timeframes, with quick profit-taking strategies in place.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 in play
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 15955/15465 holds, 19035/19710/20190 in play
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long 17040 holds, 16020/15955/15465 likely
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 18040 or 18010 holds, 18255/18325/18430+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 18040/18010 fails, 17850/17825- in play
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 18040 or 18010 holds and 18152 is reclaimed, 18255/18325 are in play.
Upon reclaiming 18325, the next targets are 18430/18480.
Further targets include 18545/18640/18685 upon surpassing 18480.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 18010 fails, 17960/17915 are in play.
Subsequent levels to consider are 17850/17825 upon breaching 17915.
A breach of 17825 could lead to targets at 17700/17575-.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 18095 holds or reclaimed, targeting 19035+.
🐻 Bearish: if fails to hold 18095, may intensify bearish sentiment, with downside targets at 17850/17825-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 18095, 18152, 18255*, 18325*, 18430*, 18480/18545, 18640/18685, 18790
Support: 18040/18010, 17960/17915*, 17850/17825*, 17700*, 17575, 17480*, 17372*
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Moved up the orange flag slightly for early detection of short-term trend change.
Orange Flag: A close below 18095 questions the daily uptrend (triggered on Mar 15).
1st Red Flag: A close below 17825 on a red day may suggest doubts in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 17372 on a red day, it indicates potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#YM_F / #DJI Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Last week, the weekly bullish perspective stated, "If 39195 or at least 39115 holds and 39295 is reclaimed, 39390/39600/39730 are in play."
Notably, last week's low was 39129, reclaimed 39295 and hitting targets at 39390 and 39600 (39698 high), coming close to the third target.
Despite a sharp pullback after making a new all-time high last week, the market is still holding support.
Hence, maintaining a bullish bias but exercising caution as the price nears key support levels.
However, confirmation from bulls is desired before considering long positions.
Bulls need to first claim 39205 to demonstrate intent and 39400 to solidify commitment.
Considering the substantial bull run #YM has had since last October, it would be advantageous for bulls to undergo a cooling-off period and consolidate between 39400 - 38600 for a few weeks.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 35315/33915 holds 41900/45030+ in play
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish target: as long 36750/36602 holds 39210/41310+ in play (first target 39210 hit)
🐻 Bearish target: will determine when weekly trend turns bearish
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 39015 or at least 39050 holds, 39655/39730/39815+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 39050 fails, 38830/38755- in play
Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):
If 39015 or at least 39050 holds and 39205 is claimed, 39295/39400 are in play.
Upon reclaiming 39400, the next target is 39655.
Subsequent targets include 39730/39815 upon surpassing 39655.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):
If 39050 fails, 38930/38890 are in play.
Failure at 38930 could lead to targets at 38755/38720.
Further downside potential may unfold if 38720 fails, targeting 38590/38545-.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 39015/39050 holds and 39205 reclaimed , targeting 39730+.
🐻 Bearish: if bears defend 39400 and 39050 fails to hold, downside targets include 38630/38545-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 39205*, 39295, 39400*, 39555, 39655*, 39730, 39815*, 39925
Support: 39105/39050*, 39005, 38930*, 38890, 38755/38720*, 38660, 38590/38545*, 38400
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Adjusting flag levels for early detection of short-term trend change:
Orange Flag: A close below 39050 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 38545 on a red day may suggest doubts in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 38155 on a red day, it indicates potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
After hitting key upside targets in the past two weeks, last week closed with a significant red candle. Hence changing weekly bias to bearish.
Nevertheless, crucial support levels are still holding.
Hence, maintaining a daily bullish bias but exercising caution as the price hovers near key support levels.
Confirmation from bulls is awaited before considering long positions.
Looking for bulls to reclaim 2071 while holding 2057.5 to signify bullish intent and claiming 2080 to solidify commitment.
Note that bulls are vulnerable below 2095.
Key levels for bulls to defend are 2057.5 and 2045.
A close below any of these levels, especially on a weekly basis, could lead to more red days and strengthen bearish sentiment.
If bulls hold these levels, particularly on a weekly close, longer-term targets at 2158/2215 come into play.
Given #RTY's propensity for quick directional changes, sticking with level-to-level plays as outlined below.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 1867 holds 2247/2461/2575+ in play
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish: as long 1994/1970 holds 2052/2108/2461+ in play (hit 2052 target)
🐻 Bearish: as long 2038/2048 holds, 1905/1880 likely
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 2057.5/2052 holds and 2071 reclaims, 2080/2098/2120+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 2052 fails, 2037/2027/2018- in play
Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):
If 2057.5/2052 holds and 2071 is reclaimed, 2080/2098 are in play.
Upon reclaiming 2098, the next targets are 2108/2120.
Further upside potential includes 2130/2138+ upon surpassing 2120.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):
If 2052 fails, 2045/2037 are in play.
Subsequent targets to consider include 2027/2018 upon breaching 2037.
Further downside potential unfolds if 2018 fails, targeting 2009/2002-.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: if 2057.5/2052 holds, focusing on 2138/2169.
🐻 Bearish: failure to hold 2045 could bring 2018/2009/2002- into play.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 2071/2080, 2095/2098*, 2108, 2120, 2130, 2138, 2152, 2162/2169
Support: 2057.5/2052*, 2045*, 2037*, 2027, 2018, 2009*, 2002
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Adjusting flag levels after the contract rollover:
Orange Flag: A close below 2045 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 2009 on a red day may suggest doubts in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 1985 on a red day, it indicates potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#DXY / $USD:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Last week, attention was on bears to defend 102.900 or at least 103.352.
Initially, bears successfully defended 102.900 on Tuesday and Wednesday, but bulls also held the support.
Eventually, bulls surged with force on Thursday and reclaimed 103.352.
Consequently, bias is changed back to bullish, although caution is warranted as key resistance levels loom nearby.
If bears manage to defend either 103.670 or 103.890, a move down to 103.300 could be expected.
A red day close below 103.300 would indicate bearish intentions, while a close below 102.740 would signify commitment.
Notably, an inverse correlation between USD (#DXY) and #RTY, #NQ, and #ES is observed this week
With a stronger #DXY likely to pressure #RTY the most.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 103.615/103.670*, 103.830/103.890*, 104.150, 104.295*
Support: 103.300*, 102.900, 102.740*, 102.600, 102.400, 102.160*, 102.000
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Orange Flag: A close below 103.655 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 102.900 on a red day may suggest doubts in the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 101.930 on a red day, it indicates potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you flawless trade execution!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Thoroughly read your NQ analysis, took notes and marked up my chart. Thanks again for your roadmap and for doing what you do!!