Weekly Charts Reading for 3/11- 3/15
Reflect-Before-Execute
How’s last week?
#ES hit a new all-time high, but Friday's close was a look above & failed.
#NQ also hit a new all-time high, but Friday's close was a look above & failed.
#YM, as expected, closed the week in the red.
#RTY achieved a new 52-week high, but Friday's close was a look above & failed.
#DXY, as expected, closed the week in the red. When Wed closed below 103.655, the next two days saw a rapid move down, hitting the first target. However, on Friday, bulls held the first weekly support.
Notably, I had a monthly target of 5256 for #ES and a weekly target of 18700 for #NQ. Due to contract rollover, they both were clipped precisely and pulled back sharply from there on Friday.
Regarding my recent vacation:
Despite my intentions to recharge during this time, unexpected stressors arose, preventing me from fully rejuvenating. Nevertheless, I am grateful to be back and will gradually work on newsletter activities as time allows.
Thank you for your ongoing understanding and support.
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (3/11 – 3/15)
The likely reason behind the bullish appearance on weekly charts is probably due to the contract rollover.
Therefore, I'm maintaining a bullish bias, but with a lot of caution added.
This week, I'll wait for the bulls to confirm their commitment before considering long positions. Otherwise, I'll look for key support levels if the price action suggests support is holding on higher timeframes.
As always, I'm ready to change the bias if the key levels fail. A close below these levels on a red day could shift the weekly bias to bearish.
Keep an eye on impactful events like CPI & PPI on the calendar next week starting Tuesday, as they'll likely add more volatility to the market.
Rather than predicting these reports, focus on support and resistance levels and make responsive trades based on them. With increased volatility, consider reducing capital at risk and widening stop loss. If that's not feasible, it might be best to stay on the sidelines and let the market stabilize before entering any trades.
Anticipating larger bidirectional moves ahead.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar:
Next week is packed with significant events, kicking off with Tuesday's Core CPI and Thursday's Core PPI reports, which are likely to stir up market movements. Additionally, investors will keep a close eye on the 10 & 30-year bonds auctions scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Brace yourself for heightened volatility in the market during these events, as usual.
Note: When I refer to volatility, I mean the maximum daily price swing, especially with significant fluctuations, not the VIX index
Note about charts:
Links to daily and weekly charts are provided under each chart for you to look at more detailed levels than listed
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Alright, after the contract rollover on Sun/Mon, it's all about keeping that support locked in at 5190 for the bulls.
If we're looking at a gap fill, those levels at 5169/5154/5145 are absolutely crucial for the bulls to defend this week.
Now, if 5186 gives way, our first target would be those gap fill levels above, and if there's any slip-up on a back test of 5186, then 5112 comes into play.
Keep an eye on 5192 - if it falters and isn't quickly snatched back after a dip to 5186, we might just see 5186 giving up and those gap fill levels at 5154/5145 becoming more likely.
But, if there's a quick turnaround after a drop to 5169, with 5186 getting reclaimed back on the same day, that's definitely a bullish sign.
And let's not forget, our bulls need to take charge and lock in 5206 first to show they're serious, and then it's all about showing commitment by breaking through 5224.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long 4420/4350 holds 5615/6110+ in focus
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long 4603/4548 holds/reclaimed, 5256 in focus (target hit with contract rollover)
🐻 Bearish Goal: if bears hold 4797 or 4790, 4603/4548 possible
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 5192/5186 holds, 5237/5266/5297+ in play
🐻 Bearish: If 5186 fails, 5145/5112/5090- in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If the support at 5192/5186 holds & claim 5206, 5224/5237 next
Upon successfully claiming the 5237 level, the next targets on the radar are 5253/5266.
Should the market attain a close above 5266, the focus then shifts to the significant milestones of 5285/5297.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 5186 fails to hold, 5169/5154/5145 would be the target
If 5145 fails, the next support levels to consider are 5122/5112
If 5112 fails, 5090/5060- becomes the downside targets.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: if we can reclaim 5237/5253, aiming for 5297/5310.
🐻 Bearish: if 5186 decides it's had enough, then we might be looking at those downside targets at 5145/5112/5090-.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 5206, 5224, 5237, 5253, 5266, 5285, 52310
Support: 5192/5186, 5169, 5154/5145, 5122/5112, 5098, 5090
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Since charts aren't reflecting contract rollover adjustment, keeping flag levels same, even market has moved up.
Orange Flag: A close below 5089, daily uptrend is in question
1st Red Flag: A close below 5060 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 4960 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
The week wrapped up on a bit of a down note, especially with Friday's pullback after hitting my weekly target of 18700 (18691.25 high of June contract). This has got me leaning towards a bearish outlook.
But, let's not hit the panic button just yet. The supports are holding up, and none of my red flags have waved at us yet. Still, got to keep an eye out.
That said, don't think that there won't be chances to dive into some bearish trades during the day or even for a swing. Keep those options open!
Judging from Friday's close, it seems like as long as the bears keep their paws on 18480 or 18545, we might just be in for a back test of 17975/17930.
On the flip side, if we see a green day close above 18545, it might be time to reconsider the bullish scenario.
Oh, and heads up - if we close below 18095 on a red day, that's our cue for an orange flag, signaling a possible change in the short-term trend. Let's hope we don't see too many more red days after that.
If that orange flag does pop up, just remember, the next day's got to hold onto that low of the flag day. Otherwise, brace yourself for more red days ahead.
Thinking if 18285 gives way, we might be looking at a quick gap fill down to 18242. But, if the bulls manage to claim back control and close above 18420 on the same day, that's a bullish move.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long as 14265/14140 holds 20320/22640 is in play.
🐻 Bearish: will determine when monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish Goal: as long as 15955/15465 holds, 19035/19710/20190 is in play.
🐻 Bearish Goal: as long as 17040 holds, 16020/15955/15465 is likely.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 18285 or 18242 holds, 18545/18640/18870+ is in play.
🐻 Bearish: If 18242 fails, 17975/17850- is in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):
If 18285 or 18242 holds and 18420 is reclaimed, 18480/18545 is in play.
18545 claimed, 18640/18685 next.
18685 claimed, 18870/18790+ next.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):
If 18242 fails, 18150/18095 is in play.
If 18095 fails, 17850/17825 is in play.
If 17825 fails, 17700/17575 is next.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: as long as 18095 holds or is reclaimed, with 19035+ in play.
🐻 Bearish: if 18095 fails to hold, we might see 17850/17825- in play.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 18365/18420*, 18480/18545, 18640/18685*, 18790, 18870*, 18925
Support: 18285/18242*, 18150, 18095, 17975/17930*, 17850/17825*, 17700, 17575
Red Flags:
Keep your eyes peeled for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Moved up orange flag a bit for early detection of short-term trend change.
Orange Flag: A close below 18095, daily uptrend is in question.
1st Red Flag: A close below 17825 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 17372 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#YM_F / #DJI Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
With the contract rollover to June, it seems like the bulls are keen on reclaiming the territory from the bears.
Last week, I mentioned that the bulls seemed a bit weak until we saw a move above 39210. With the contract rollover, the close appears to be at 39221, so I'm adjusting the weekly bias to bullish.
However, it's worth noting that although it's above 39210, it's a close call. Also, Friday's close showed some indecision, not to mention the choppy action we saw in #YM on Thursday and Friday.
So, while the bias is shifting towards bullish, let's keep a healthy dose of caution. We'd want to see some confirmation action from the bulls before we get too excited.
A green day close above 39390, or at least 39325, would help solidify the bullish bias. On the flip side, if we see a red day close below 39065, it might be time to reconsider the bearish scenario.
Essentially, even though the contract rollover might suggest a bullish outlook, the overall price action appears choppy to sideways. Hence, the cautious approach.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: as long as 35315/33915 holds 41900/45030+ is in play.
🐻 Bearish: Will determine when the monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish target: as long as 36750/36602 holds 39210/41310+ is in play (first target 39210 hit).
🐻 Bearish target: Will determine when the weekly trend turns bearish.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 39195 or at least 39115 holds and 39295 is reclaimed, 39390/39600/39730 is in play.
🐻 Bearish: If 39115 fails, 38830/38790- is in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):
If 39195 or at least 39115 holds, 39295/39390 is in play.
If 39390 is claimed, 39600 is next.
If 39600 is claimed, 39730/39925 follows.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):
If 39115 fails, 39075/38995 is in play.
If 39075 fails, 38795/38720 is next.
If 38720 fails, 38550/38545- follows.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂Bullish: as long as 39195/39115 holds and 39295 is reclaimed, 39730+ is in play.
🐻Bearish: if bears hold 39390 and 39075 fails to hold, 38630/38545- is in play.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 39295, 39390, 39500, 39600, 39730, 39815, 39925.
Support: 39195, 39115/39075*, 38995*, 38915, 38795, 38720, 38590*.
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Moving up orange flag level and adjusting down the red flag levels to give us enough room for sideways action without hitting the panic button too early:
Orange Flag: A close below 39075 indicates uncertainty in the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 38545 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 38155 on a red day, it may indicate the potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Just a heads up that the charts for #RTY aren't updated yet on TradingView or Thinkorswim platforms. So, the reading might be approximate and we might need to make adjustments during the week.
I don't plan to post updates here on Substack or on X because only a handful of you seem to show any interest in this instrument, and the engagement (likes/shares/reposts) is quite low.
Apologies if you're one of the handful who follows and trades #RTY and relies on my chart readings in your trading.
Anyway, let's dive into it. Looking at the strong upside move last week and the quick move back on Friday, I'm keeping a cautiously bullish bias.
As long as 2080, or at least 2072, holds, we could see 2138+ in play.
Keep an eye on 2138 as it's a crucial level for the bulls. Expect a good fight or a pullback around there.
Yearly View:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 1867 holds, 2047/2461/2575+ are in play.
🐻 Bearish: We'll determine when the monthly trend turns bearish.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐂 Bullish: As long as 1994/1970 holds, 2052/2461+ are in play (first target 2052).
🐻 Bearish: As long as 2038/2048 holds, 1905/1880 are likely.
Weekly Perspective:
🐂 Bullish: If 2080, or at least 2072, holds, 2120/2138/2152 are in play.
🐻 Bearish: If 2048 fails, 2014/2009/2002- are in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on daily):
If 2080, or at least 2072, holds, 2096/2108 are in play.
If 2108 is claimed, 2120/2130 are next.
If 2120 is claimed, 2138/2152+ follow.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on daily):
If 2072 fails, 2056/2048 are in play.
If 2048 fails, 2038 is next.
If 2038 fails, 2027/2018- follow.
Zoomed-out View:
🐂 Bullish: If 2080, or at least 2072, holds, 2138/2169 are in focus.
🐻Bearish: If 2048 fails, 2018/2009/2002- are in play.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 2096.2, 2108, 2120, 2130, 2138, 2152, 2162/2169.
Support: 2084/2080, 2072, 2057, 2048, 2038, 2027, 2018, 2009, 2002.
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As the market moved up, I'm moving the orange flag level up for early detection of a short-term trend change as below:
Orange Flag: A close below 2048 indicates uncertainty in the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 2009 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 1985 on a red day, it may indicate the potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#DXY / $USD:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Last week, we were keeping an eye out for a close below 103.655 for bearish confirmation.
We saw just that on Wednesday's close, and Thursday and Friday saw a good flush down.
Thursday's close marked the triggering of the first red flag by closing below 102.900.
Interestingly, Friday's high hit precisely 102.900 (102.898).
For bears to continue their march down, they need to hold that level or at least 103.020 to keep 102.00- in play.
If 103.020 is claimed, 103.352 becomes the last level for bears to defend before potentially handing over the charge in the short term to the bulls again.
Also noted is the somewhat inverse correlation observed between USD and #RTY, #NQ, and #ES this week.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 102.900*, 103.020*, 103.352*, 103.890, 104.150, 104.295*
Support: 102.600, 102.400, 102.160*, 102.000, 101.930, 101.420/101.340*
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
Orange Flag: A close below 103.655, daily uptrend is in question.
1st Red Flag: A close below 102.900 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 101.930 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you are always on the right side of the market!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Took the bounce at 18013 support. It helped me out of “ a little hole I fell into “
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