Weekly Charts Reading for 3/10- 3/14
Bulls to Bear Minimum?
Making this newsletter shorter — hope you’ll still find it actionable and helpful in your trading!
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Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
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Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
How’s last week?
Last week, I wrote that bears still control and had a 5745/25 target for #ES. Not only did it hit, but it also plunged to the next support at 5670 (5673 low) before bouncing on Friday.
As mentioned, "If last week's low fails on the daily, bears still run the show, and deeper downside is possible."
Last Tuesday's failed low from the week before last led to deeper downside over the next three days.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (3/10 – 3/14)
Friday's bounce from key monthly support levels will likely test Thursday's open/high.
I'll consider any bounces/rallies, however forceful, as counter-trend moves until key levels identified below are claimed on daily/weekly.
Tuesday-Friday will be busy with usual economic reports. Wednesday's CPI is the highlight for volatility.
Key Reminders:
Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).
I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.
Events Calendar :
Quick Summary:
#ES Bullish above 5742/5718, Bearish below 5718
Bulls weak < 6016
Bears keep momentum < 5998
#NQ Bullish above 20165/19945, Bearish below 19945
Bulls weak < 21460
Bears keep momentum < 21120
#RTY Bullish above 2075/2057, Bearish below 2057
Bulls weak < 2286
Bears keep momentum < 2206
#YM Bullish above 42660/530, Bearish below 42530
Bulls weak < 44120
Bears keep momentum < 43920
#SI Bullish above 32.55, Bearish below 32.39
Bulls weak < 33.24/33.45
If 32.55 holds/reclaimed, 33.25, 33.45, 34, 34.25, 34.70, 35*+
If 32.39 fails, 32.20, 32.05, 31.90, 31.70, 31.55*-
#GC Bullish above 2911, Bearish below 2900
Bulls weak < 2936/42
If 2900 holds/reclaimed, 2936, 2942, 2968/75, 3000*+
If 2900 fails, 2893, 2872, 2866, 2855, 2846-
#PL Bullish above 966, Bearish below 965
Bulls weak < 1012
Bears lose control step by step 985 → 996 → 979 → 1012*
If 966 holds, 985, 992, 996, 979, 1000*, 1012+
If 965 fails, 960, 956, 950/947, 938, 925*-
Based on Feb close, 910 in play until 1000 claimed
#PA Bullish above 947, Bearish below 943
Bulls weak < 993
Bears lose control step by step 931 → 946 → 993* → 1020*
If 947 holds, 965, 970, 983, 990/996, 1004, 1020*+
If 943 fails, 939, 935, 925/922, 917, 906-
Based on Feb close, if 900 fails to hold, fast move to test 825/813- likely
#CL Bullish above 66.8, Bearish below 66.34
Bears control < 74.75
Bears lose control step by step 68.58 → 70.30 → 71.25 → 73.20* → 74.75
If 66.8 holds, 68.10/68.58, 69.80, 70.30, 70.60, 70.90, 71.25+
If 66.33 fails, 65.60, 65.20, 65.00, 63.65, 61.56, 59.50**-
Quick Plays:
#ES:
Key Levels Recap:
Last Monday, bulls had a chance to claim key 6016. They pushed to 6023 Sunday night but gave up the gains at Monday open and bears continued their march. Tuesday failed to hold the previous week's low and, as expected, hit 5725 (5673 low).
Current Outlook:
Bulls weak < 6016
Bears keep momentum < 5998
Until 6016 is claimed on daily, treat all long trades as counter-trend, even if forceful rallies are seen.
If, after claiming 5885 on daily, the next day turns red and closes the red candle near the previous day's open or low, the next leg in the downtrend is likely to continue.
If 5885 is claimed on daily, bears start losing short-term momentum.
Friday's EOM squeeze hit the first resistance precisely at 5791 but couldn't claim that nor 5775. So, unless bulls claim 5775 & 5791 quickly, it increases the possibility of a back test of 5742/5718 supports.
Bulls need to defend 5770/5757 if 5775/91 is claimed quickly to keep momentum to 5813/20/30+.
Based on Friday's close, as long as 5718 holds, 5845/55+ back test is in play.
Key bullish targets/key resistances for any upside moves if 5791 is claimed: 5845, 5855, 5870, 5885, 5967, 6000, 6016*.
5742/5724 are key monthly supports.
Bears lose control: 5885 → 5998 → 6016 → 6025.
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls hold 5758/5742/5718 as support and quickly reclaim 5775 and 91 to bring 5813/20, 5845, 5855, 5869, 5885*+ into play.
Ideal Bearish Scenario:
Bears hold 5806/5820 or below & claim 5757 first then 5718 (hourly/4hr red candle close below) to bring 5687, 5670, 5640, 5625, 5597, 5500- into play.
Big Picture:
If 5791 is reclaimed on daily: 5845/55, 5870/5885, 6000/16, 6025/30*+ into play.
If 5718 fails to hold on daily: 5687/70, 5640/25, 5597- into play.
If 5597 fails to hold on daily: 5556/40, 5500/5488, 5424*- likely.
Support Levels:
Intra-day: 5762, 5757, 5742, 5718, 5686
Daily: 5718, 5669, 5625, 5597, 5564
Weekly: 5724/5669, 5564, 5410*
Monthly: 5742/24, 5626, 5410, 5300*
Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005
Resistance Levels:
Intra-day: 5775/83, 5791, 5806, 5813, 5817*
Daily: 5791, 5845/55, 5885, 5967*, 6016
Weekly: 5967, 6000, 6040, 6068, 6142*
Monthly: 5968/82, 6000, 6068, 6164
Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.
Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.
#NQ:
Key Levels Recap:
Bulls weren't in control all last week despite attempts to hold key supports. Bulls needed to claim 21410/460 but couldn't even get past 21120. As expected, bears moved the price down deeper and faster.
Current Outlook:
Bulls weak > 21460
Bears keep momentum < 21120
Based on Friday's close, as long as 19945 holds, 20600/650+ back test is in play.
As mentioned since the start of Feb this year, failing to hold 20940 would bring 20010/19900/19500 and likely continue the downtrend for weeks.
Bulls need to claim 21460 on daily & weekly to negate that move. Until then, bears are in control.
All rallies to be treated as counter-trend in the downtrend.
If 20000 fails to hold on daily, 19800/730, 19600/560- in play.
If 19560 fails, 19400, 19240, 19830, 18400- in play.
If 19945 holds, 20600/650 in play.
If 20650 is claimed on daily, 20750, 20940*, 21000 in play.
If 20750 is claimed on daily, 21000, 21120*, 21250 in play.
Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 20650/750 → 21120* → 21325 → 21460.
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls defend 20165/20050/19945 and quickly reclaim 20280 to continue to 20325, 20405, 20480/515, 20615/650+.
Ideal Bearish Scenario:
Bears hold 20350/430 or below and claim 20050 first, then 19945 (hourly/4hr red candle close below) to bring 19815, 19765/730, 19650, 19560/500- in play.
Big Picture:
If 20650/750 is reclaimed on daily: 21000/120*, 21250/325, 21460+ in play.
If 20000 fails on daily: 19800/730, 19600/560, 19500*- in play.
Support Levels:
Intra-day: 20165, 20050, 19945, 19875, 19815, 19765
Daily: 19945, 19765/730, 19650, 19560/500*
Weekly: 20000, 19735, 19500*
Monthly: 20010, 19800/595, 18590*
Yearly: 19650/500, 18590/18400, 17465
Resistance Levels:
Intra-day: 20230, 20280, 20355, 20405, 20460/480, 20515*
Daily: 20290, 20605/650, 20750, 21005, 21120
Weekly: 21005/21120, 21700/815, 22235
Monthly: 21270, 21700/815, 22320, 22900*
Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.
Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.
[BONUS]
The following trade plans were generated by ChatGPT using my method and the chart levels above. Use your judgment to make your own decisions.
Not financial advice.
#ES
🐂 Bullish Control Levels:
Above 6016 → Bulls take full control, targeting 6068 → 6142+
Above 5885 → Bulls start regaining short-term momentum, targeting 5967 → 6000 → 6016
Above 5791 → Strength builds toward 5845 → 5855 → 5870 → 5885
🐻 Bearish Control Levels:
Below 5998 → Bears maintain momentum, targeting 5967 → 5885
Below 5718 → Bearish continuation toward 5687 → 5670 → 5640 → 5625 → 5597
Below 5597 → Accelerated downside risk to 5556 → 5500 → 5424 → 5300
Long Setup:
Short Setup:
#NQ
🐂 Bullish Control Levels:
Above 21460 → Bulls take control step by step toward 21815+
Above 20650 → Bulls regain momentum, targeting 20750 → 20940 → 21000 → 21120
Above 21000 → Strength builds toward 21120 → 21250 → 21410
🐻 Bearish Control Levels:
Below 20685 → Bears in control, targeting 20480 → 20355 → 20230
Below 20000 → Bearish continuation toward 19800 → 19650 → 19500*
Below 19500 → Accelerated downside risk to 19240 → 18950 → 18590 → 18400
Long Setup:
Short Setup:
Guidelines for Entry Confirmation
Candle Close Rules:
Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.
Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.
Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.
Handling Breakouts / Breakdowns:
High Probability of Initial Failure:
Be prepared to lose the first breakout/breakdown trade if it reverses.
Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short/long if risk reward is at least 1:2.
Second attempts at breakout/breakdown levels are likely more successful.
Better Entries: After a failed breakout/breakdown, often you get a better long/short entry at the next support/resistance level when price reverses upward/downward.
Typical Stop Loss Examples:
#ES_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.
#NQ_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.
Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.
What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?
More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above
Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly
Short-term: Daily
Long-term: Weekly
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Great, as usual! Loved the bonus! Really appreciate. Have a good one my friend