Weekly Charts Reading for 12/16- 12/20
Buckle Up: FOMC & Rollover Ride
My levels are for the Dec 2024 contract. This week, it'll roll to the Mar 2025 contract, so levels might not align perfectly. I might update them once TOS rolls over, but no promises. :)
Because of this, I haven’t included detailed trade plans for #ES and #NQ.
Until Dec 20, you can still check the Dec contract for reference, even if you're not trading it!
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
How’s last week?
#NQ hit a new ATH and is holding support so far. Rest of the market? Moving down.
My flag system spotted weakness early when orange flags triggered:
#RTY on Dec 5th
#YM on Dec 6th
#ES on Dec 9th
Metals had an initial spike, hitting daily targets, but #SI, #GC, #PL, and #PA gave up all gains by week's end.
#CL held 66.75 (as mentioned in last week’s NL), reclaimed 70.5, and gave bulls a shot at control. Still needs two more levels for a sustained upside, IMO.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (12/16 – 12/20)
Economic Calendar:
Busy week ahead: economic reports + Fed rate announcement & press conference on Wednesday.
Oh, and it’s the week before Christmas. 🎄
Don’t forget, contract rollover kicks off Monday/Tuesday.
Plenty of reasons for the market to throw tantrums, no matter the volume! 😅.
Market Outlook:
Big week ahead for short/medium-term moves, starting with market weakness. Without a Fed boost, the downside may continue. (Not a trading plan, just my 2 cents!)
#ES & #NQ: Upside possible if intraday supports hold. If Friday's low breaks, expect more chop.
#RTY & #YM: Sitting on key daily supports. A green close could mean a backtest to the upside; otherwise, more downside ahead.
#NQ keeps climbing, but the slope feels unsustainable without a pullback or some sideways action. (Posted alerts on X about this!)
#ES cooled off a bit last week, but the pullback timing remains uncertain.
Shared a cheat sheet below for spotting trend changes. Not about nailing tops/bottoms, but my 3-level flag system helps with short-term bias.
Always open to both directions—trading based on support/resistance levels only.
Metals:
As noted after October’s red close, bulls needed to reclaim key levels to reverse the trend. First attempt? A swing and a miss.
Now, #GC, #SI, #PL, and #PA are near key supports—bulls’ move to make or break.
#CL:
First green week after November’s red month, reclaiming the 70.50 resistance.
Spent 8 weeks stuck between 66.75 & 72.5.
Bulls need to clear 2 more levels (see below) for a sustained upside move.
Overview:
Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:
Aggressively moving #NQ flag levels closer for early detection.
This increases the chance of false positives, especially if a green reversal candle shows up the next day.Red Flags:
Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.
1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.
2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.
Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):
#ES: 6076 (triggered Dec 5th), 6036, 5940
#NQ: 21665, 21425, 21305
#RTY: 2418 (triggered Dec 5th), 2317, 2082
#YM: 44820 (triggered Dec 6th), 44450 (triggered Dec 10th), 43380
Quick Summary:
#ES: Bullish above 6076, Bearish below 6047/42
{ESH25 : Bullish above 6145, Bearish below 6047/42}
#NQ: Bullish above 21685, Bearish below 21665
#RTY: Bullish above 2340, Bearish below 2338
#YM: Bullish above 43810, Bearish below 43810
#SI: Bullish above 31.10, Bearish below 30.90
Bulls weak—need 31.80 to target 33.25/34+
#GC: Bullish above 2660, Bearish below 2650
Bulls weak—need 2684 to target 2717/2759+
#PL: Bullish above 923, Bearish below 923
Bulls weak under 945
Coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout/breakdown needed for big moves
#PA: Bullish above 958, Bearish below 946
#CL: Bullish above 70, Bearish below 69.85
Holding $66 monthly support for 3 months—if it breaks, expect a bigger drop
Bears lose control step by step: 70.5 → 71.5 → 73
Last week held 66.75 support & reclaimed first key level for bulls
Weekly close > 76/75.10 needed for sustained upside
Quick Plays:
#ES:
Bulls:
Weak after Orange flag triggered on Dec 9th.
Need to reclaim 6076 → 6089 → 6105 on daily to gain control.
{ESH25 : Need to reclaim 6145 → 6165 → 6170 on daily to gain control}
Intraday path: 6058 → 6066 → 6076 leads to claiming first key level (6076 daily).
{ESH25 : Intraday path: 6128 → 6135 → 6145 leads to claiming first key level (6145 daily)}
Still weak below 6089.
{ESH25 : Still weak below 6165}
Bears:
Lose control step by step if bulls push above 6076 → 6089 → 6105 daily.
{ESH25 : Lose control step by step if bulls push above 6145 → 6164 → 6174 daily.}
If 6089 fails or rejects, 6015/6000- in play.
{ESH25 : If 6164 fails or rejects on daily, 6086/6069- in play. }
If 6036 fails on hourly/4H, 6015/6000- likely.
{ESH25 : If 6103 fails on hourly/4H, 6086/6069- likely.}
Key Levels:
If 6047/42 holds, upside levels in play:
6058 → 6066 → [6076] → [6085] → (6089) → [6093] → 6099 → [6103] → (6110/6118) → 6125 → [6135] → 6142 → 6151 → (6185) → 6202 → (6230) → 6250 → 6260+.{ESH25 : If 6117/6111 holds, upside levels in play:
6127 → 6135 → [6145] → [6155] → (6164) → [6168] → 6175 → (6178/6187) → 6194 → [6205] → 6212 → 6221 → (6255) → 6272 → (6300) → 6320 → 6330+}If 6042 fails, downside levels in play:
(6036) → [6032] → 6023 → 6019 → (6015) → 6007 → [6000/5996] → 5988 → [5982] → 5976 → (5963) → 5953 → (5943) → 5930 → 5912 → 5905 → (5900/5895)-.{ESH25 : If 6111 fails, downside levels in play:
(6103) → [6090] → 6086*→ 6077 → (6077) → 6007 → [6000/5996] → 5988 → [5982] → 5976 → (5963) → 5953 → (5943) → 5930 → 5912 → 5905 → (5900/5895)-. }
Big Picture:
As long as 6049 holds or is reclaimed, 6185/6230/6260+ remain possible.
{ESH25 : As long as 6117 holds or is reclaimed, 6260/6300/6330+ remain possible}
Supports:
Daily: 6046/6036, 6023/6015, 6007/5993
Weekly: 6036, 6007/5993, 5976/5963
Monthly: 5900, 5745/5732, 5656/5626
Resistances:
Daily: 6089, 6096/6106, 6118/6130
Weekly: 6096/6106, 6118/6130, 6185/6192
Monthly: 6118/6130, 6250/6260, 6370
Key Monthly Levels:
Bulls must defend 5900—if it fails, 5745/5732 come into play.
5732 is the second/last monthly support—below that, 5627- in play.
#NQ:
Bulls:
Keep momentum > 21760.
If 21760 → 21720 → 21685 holds, upside targets:
21830 → [21885] → 21930 → [21950] → 21990 → 22050 → 22090 → (22125) → 22300 → 22360 → [22530/560] → 22700 → (23230+).
Bears:
If 21665 fails, downside targets:
21595 → 21570 → 21525 → 21485 → [21450] → 21385 → [21350/325] → (21305) → 21275 → (21130) → [21000] → (20940) → 20855 → (20825/805) → 20735 → 20715 → (20690/675) → 20625/595 → (20500) → 20475 → 20420 → (20380/360) → 20280 → 20230 → 20130/105 → (20070/20010).
Big Picture:
As long as 21000 holds or is reclaimed, 22300/22360/23230 remain in play.
Supports:
Daily: 21665/21630, 21435/21405, 21305
Weekly: 21305, 21000/20940, 20810/20735
Monthly: 20675, 20070/20010, 19815/19650
Resistances:
Daily: 21900/21950, 22050/22090, 22360
Weekly: 22090/22300, 22530, 22700/23230
Monthly: 22360, 23230, 24000
Key Monthly Levels:
First support: 20675—if it fails, 20500/20380 come into play.
Bulls must defend weekly supports near 20380 to avoid a test of 19650/19500.
#RTY:
Bulls:
Weak after Orange flag triggered on Dec 5th.
Need to reclaim 2373 → 2401 → 2435 on daily to regain control.
Intraday path: 2358 → 2367 → 2373 leads to claiming first key level (2373 daily).
Still weak below 2401.
Bears:
Lose control step by step if bulls push above 2373 → 2401 → 2435 daily.
If 2358 or 2367 rejects, look for shorts with targets at 2345/2340 → 2338 → 2328.
If 2338 fails, downside levels in play:
(2328) → 2318 → (2306) → 2301 → 2286 → 2272 → 2252 → 2229 → 2220 → 2205 → 2198 → 2068 → 2033.
Key Levels:
If 2345/2342/2340 holds, upside levels in play:
2358 → 2367 → [2373] → (2387) → 2401 → [2409] → (2414) → [2420/2423] → 2430 → (2435) → 2440 → 2446 → 2454 → (2457) → 2461+.
If 2338 fails, downside levels in play:
(2328/2326) → 2318 → (2306) → [2301] → 2286 → (2272) → 2252 → (2229) → 2220 → (2205) → (2198) → 2068 → 2033.
Big Picture:
As long as 2371 holds or is reclaimed, 2575+ remains in play.
If 2338 fails on daily, 2318/2306- in play.
Supports:
Daily: 2338/2328, 2318, 2286/2280
Weekly: 2338/2328, 2318/2306, 2280/2272
Monthly: 2318/2306, 2205/2198, 2068/2033
Resistances:
Daily: 2373, 2401, 2435/2346
Weekly: 2414, 2435/2346, 2457/2461
Monthly: 2461, 2520/2575, 2630
Key Monthly Levels:
Bulls must defend 2205/2198—if it fails, 2068/2033 become likely.
Example Plan:
If weekly support at 2318/2306 holds on hourly/4H, long with targets at 2328, 2338, and 2348.
If price holds above 2345, long after 2358 is reclaimed on hourly, setting SL under that candle. Ready to re-enter if it fails initially and reclaims the level, targeting 2367, 2373, and 2379.
If 2358 or 2367 is rejected, look for a short with SL above the rejection candle and targets at 2358, 2345/2340, and 2338.
#YM:
Bulls:
Weak after Orange flag triggered on Dec 6th.
Need to reclaim 44145 → 44510 → 44675 on daily to gain control.
Intraday path: 43950 → 44010 → 44090 leads to 44145 key level.
Still weak below 44145.
Bears:
Lose control step by step if bulls push above 44145 → 44510 → 44675 daily.
If 44145 fails or rejects, 43680 → 43575 → 43425 in play.
If 43810 fails on hourly/4H, downside likely to continue.
Key Levels:
If 43810 holds, upside levels in play:
43950 → 44010 → 44090 → (44145) → 44240 → (44275) → 44370 → 44510 → 44555 → (44675) → 44800 → 44910 → (44985) → 45125+.
If 43810 fails, downside levels in play:
43680 → 43575 → 43480 → 43425 → 43400 → (43385) → 43250 → 43180 → 42990 → 42850 → 42440 → 42000 → 41970 → 41790-.
Big Picture:
As long as 43580 holds or is reclaimed, 45030/45290+ in play.
Supports:
Daily: 43810, 43575, 43480.
Weekly: 43580, 42990, 42440.
Monthly: 43580/43480, 41970/41790, 40350.
Resistances:
Daily: 44145, 44275, 44675.
Weekly: 44555, 44810, 45050.
Monthly: 45675, 46350, 47025.
Key Monthly Levels:
Bulls must defend 43580—if it fails, 42990/42440 come into play.
Example Plan:
If daily support of 43810 holds on hourly/4 hourly, go long & may add to position keeping 43950*, 44010*, 44090*, 44145*+ as targets
However if 44090 or 44145 rejected, look to go short with SL above hourly candle that rejected these levels and 2nd/3rd intra day supports like 43950/43850- targets
Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:
Uptrend to Downtrend:
Fail key support levels.
Reject first support in back tests.
Sell-the-rally mania.
Breakdowns with staying power.
Form lower highs & lows.
Downtrend to Uptrend:
Claim key resistance levels.
Hold second support in pullbacks.
Buy-the-dip frenzy.
Breakouts with staying power.
Form higher highs & lows.
Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:
Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.
Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)
Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.
Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).
Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar :
Guidelines for Entry Confirmation
Candle Close Rules:
Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.
Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.
Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.
Handling Breakouts:
High Probability of Initial Failure:
Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.
Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.
Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.
Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.
Typical Stop Loss Examples:
#ES_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.
#NQ_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.
Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Thank you for the efforts. It helps us a lot.