Weekly Charts Reading for 12/11 - 12/15
Cheer or Grinch?
How’s last week?
Last week featured mixed directional moves across indices.
Paying attention to support/resistance levels likely facilitated plays on both sides.
Plays may not have been very clean, typical when the market fluctuates around key support levels.
The orange and red flags triggered for #ES and #NQ on Wednesday's close were swiftly nullified by overnight actions, and I outlined the conditions for this negation here on X (formerly Twitter).
As anticipated, #DXY bears relinquished control to bulls last week.
Due to travel, daily levels and readings weren't posted on X (formerly Twitter).
Here are four charts of index futures with the same levels and ranges identified last Sunday, now updated with new candles.
Compare Last week's levels vs actual move
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
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Week Ahead (12/11 – 12/15)
Today's newsletter is brief due to recent travel commitments.
It is based on a quick chart scan rather than an in-depth analysis.
This edition lacks the usual list of factors favoring bears and bulls, trade plans, and detailed instrument analysis.
Considering time constraints, I opted to at least identify key support/resistance levels for potential usefulness.
This serves as the foundation for my own trading decisions this week.
Note the FOMC rate meeting and statement on Wednesday, expected to bring volatility.
With #DXY gaining strength, there's a likelihood of weakness in #NQ, #ES, and #RTY this week.
Monitoring #DXY on Monday/Tuesday for potential clues to Wednesday's market moves.
Contract rollover day is on Monday.
If there are no trade plan requests, I won't post them in the future. Without feedback on this newsletter, I'll continue with the abbreviated version moving forward.
Note about Contract Rollover:
It's essential to consider that futures are rolling over on Sunday/Monday, and the charts for continuous contracts are yet to be updated correctly. This may slightly complicate level analysis, and adjustments may be required once updated charts are available on Monday.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Events Calendar:
The upcoming week's events calendar is packed with regular economic reports, and there's anticipation of increased volatility due to the FOMC rate meeting and statement scheduled for Wednesday. Please note that, for me, volatility refers to the maximum move in a day from high to low, especially with significant swings. This is distinct from the VIX index.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
After the contract rollover on Sun/Mon, maintaining support at 4636 is imperative for the bullish stance.
In the event of a gap fill, levels at 4595/4585 become critical for bulls to defend this week.
The pivotal resistance at 4672 must be claimed by the bulls to prove commitment towards 4785/ATH.
If 4636 has not been tested, a pullback from 4672/4696 might prompt a retest.
Note that the orange flag level has been moved up to provide an early warning of a potential trend change, while red flag levels remain unchanged. I’ll wait chart updates post-contract rollover before adjusting red flag levels.
Monthly Viewpoint:
• 🐂 Bullish Goal: 4770/ATH
• 🐻 Bearish Goal: To be determined upon observing a shift in the daily trend.
Weekly Perspective:
• 🐂 Bullish: If 4650/4636 holds, 4740/4785+ is plausible.
• 🐻 Bearish: Failure at 4636 opens targets at 4616/4585.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
• If support at 4650/4636 holds or is reclaimed, the next targets are 4667/4672.
• Claiming 4672 sets sights on 4720/4740.
• Closing above 4740 shifts focus to 4767/4785+.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
• If 4636 fails, 4622/4616 becomes the target.
• Failure at 4616 brings attention to support at 4595/4585.
• If 4585 gives way, 4562/4556 are downside targets.
Zoomed-out View: As long as bulls maintain or reclaim 4622/4616, the path to 4785/ATH likely.
🔑 Key Levels:
• Resistance: 4667/4672*, 4696, 4720/4740*, 4767/4785*, 4800/ATH
• Support: 4650/4636*, 4627/4622, 4616*, 4610, 4595/4585*
Red Flags: Keep a vigilant eye for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As the market moved up, flag levels have been adjusted for early detection of short-term trend changes as follows:
Orange Flag: A close below 4610 raises questions about the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: Closing below 4545 on a red day suggests a potential challenge to the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 4520 on a red day, it hints at the possible voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Last week, anticipated a shift to red or sideways action in #NQ, witnessing the initial red followed by resilient bulls pushing back to test 16095/16100, key resistances identified last Sunday.
16205 is a key level for both bulls and bears to defend or reclaim.
Note that flag levels have been adjusted upwards for early warning of a potential trend change and openness to a bias shift.
Monthly Viewpoint:
• 🐂 Bullish Target: 16355/16600
• 🐻 Bearish Target: To be determined upon observing a shift in the daily trend.
Weekly Perspective:
• 🐂 Bullish: If 16235/16205 holds AND 16355 is reclaimed, 16500/16600+ is in play.
• 🐻 Bearish: If 16205 fails, 16100/16020- is in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
• If 16235/16205 holds or is reclaimed, 16355 is in play.
• Once 16355 is claimed, 16440/16500 become the next targets.
• With 16500 claimed, the focus shifts to 16600/ATH.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
• If 16205 fails, 16145/16100 is in play.
• If 16100 fails, 16060/16020 are next in line.
• Should 16020 fail, 15965/15940 become the downside targets.
Zoomed-out View: As long as 16145/16100 holds or is reclaimed, 16600/ATH remains in play.
🔑 Key Levels:
• Resistance: 16355, 16440, 16500, 16600, 16700
• Support: 16270, 16235/16205, 16145/16100, 16060/16020*, 15965/15940*
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As the market moves up, flag levels have been adjusted aggressively for early detection of short-term trend changes as below:
• Orange Flag: A close below 16100 questions the daily uptrend.
• 1st Red Flag: Closing below 16020 on a red day may suggest a challenge to the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
• 2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 15815 on a red day, it hints at the potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#YM_F / #DJI Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Robust bulls are hovering near ATH.
As long 36475 holds or is reclaimed, there's no reason why bulls won't take above ATH.
Monthly Viewpoint:
• 🐂 Bullish Target: ATH / 37900
• 🐻 Bearish Target: To be determined upon observing a shift in the daily trend.
Weekly Perspective:
• 🐂 Bullish: If 36595/36475 holds or is reclaimed, 36835/ATH is in play.
• 🐻 Bearish: If 36475 fails, 36335/36210- is in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
• 36595/36475 holds or is reclaimed, 36665/36700 is in play.
• If 36665 is claimed, 36760 is the next target.
• With 36760 claimed, 36760/ATH is next.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
• If 36595 fails, 36500/36475 is in play.
• If 36475 fails, 36420/36335 is next.
• Should 36335 fail, 36210/36145 is the subsequent target.
Zoomed-out View: As long as 36475 holds or is reclaimed, ATH+ is in play.
🔑 Key Levels:
• Resistance: 36665/36700*, 36760, 36835/36875 (ATH), 36925, 37050
• Support: 36595, 36475/36420, 36335*, 36210/36145, 36065
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As the market moves up, flag levels have been adjusted aggressively for early detection of short-term trend changes as below:
• Orange Flag: A close below 36335 questions the daily uptrend.
• 1st Red Flag: Closing below 35960 on a red day may suggest a challenge to the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
• 2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 35560 on a red day, it hints at the potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
If it continues with the pattern since Nov, of a strong bullish move up and then sideways for a week or two followed by another strong move, expect sideways to a strong bullish move this week.
As long 1852 holds, I lean towards a strong move up to 1925. What do you think?
Monthly Viewpoint:
• 🐂 Bullish Target: 1903/1940
• 🐻 Bearish Target: To be determined upon observing a shift in the daily trend.
Weekly Perspective:
• 🐂 Bullish: If 1870/1863 holds or is reclaimed, 1903/1925 is in play.
• 🐻 Bearish: If 1852 fails, 1840/1825/1815- is in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
• 1870/1863 holds, 1889/1896 is in play.
• If 1889 is claimed, 1903/1922 are next.
• With 1903 claimed, 1922/1925 are next.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
• If 1852 fails, 1848.5/1840 is in play.
• If 1848.5 fails, 1825 is next.
• Should 1825 fail, 1811/1806 is next.
Zoomed-out View: As long as 1855.5 holds, 1925/1940+ is likely to be tested.
🔑 Key Levels:
• Resistance: 1884, 1889/1896*, 1903*, 1922/1925*, 1940
• Support: 1870/1863, 1852/1848.5, 1840, 1825, 1815/1806*
Red Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days:
As the market moves up, moving the orange flag level up aggressively for early detection of a short-term trend change as below:
• Orange Flag: A close below 1852 questions the daily uptrend.
• 1st Red Flag: Closing below 1797 on a red day may suggest a challenge to the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
• 2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 1780 on a red day, it hints at the potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#DXY / $USD:
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
As suspected, the weak bears' week before slowed down, and we saw a reversal this week, creating moves down in #NQ & #ES & #RTY.
Bulls closed this week above the lime flag, thus potential continuation to the upside to 104.420/104.560+ is possible.
A red day close below 103.545 would show bearish intention.
A red day close below 103.010 would be confirmation and will give confidence to bears.
Note that if the inverse correlation between USD and #NQ #ES is to continue, #ES & #NQ may see bear pressure increase and increased volatility.
🔑 Key Levels:
• Resistance: 104.025*, 104.420, 104.560*, 104.870, 105.640/105.735*
• Support: 103.740/103.515, 103.010*, 102.810, 102.295, 101.960*
Green Flags:
Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days:
Moving down flags aggressively for early warning of a reversal.
• Lime Flag: A close above 103.740 on a green day could indicate that the daily downtrend bias is in question.
• 1st Green Flag: If the market closes above 104.560 on a green day, it may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
• 2nd Green Flag: A significant bullish confirmation could occur if the market closes above 105.735 on a green day, potentially voiding the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wishing your portfolio a week filled with green! 🌿💰
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Very impressive work sir! Just started following you! Thanks for all you do
#RTY_F charts seem off post-rollover on TradingView; weekly readings might be inaccurate.