Weekly Charts Reading for 12/09- 12/13
New Month, New Hustle
As a bonus experiment, I’ve added back detailed trading plans in different format for #ES and #NQ to illustrate how to turn levels into actionable execution strategies. Hope it helps!
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
How’s last week?
Mixed market: #ES, #NQ, and #YM hit new highs, but #RTY and #YM closed red.
Metals stayed weak as expected, while #ZB ended the week green.
#CL showed early strength but pulled back after nearly hitting 70.
Bonus Alert: Hourly charts included below to review last week's levels and trade plans!
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (12/09 – 12/13)
Economic Calendar:
Quiet week ahead with Wed’s CPI and Thursday's Unemployment Claims being the key events.
Next week is calm before the busy week of Dec 16th with the Fed rate decision, FOMC press conference, and contract rollovers.
Market Outlook:
Expect last week’s trends to continue, possibly with more volatility Wednesday and Thursday.
#ES & #NQ: Upside likely if intraday support levels hold. If Friday’s low fails, more chop is possible.
#RTY & #YM: Watch intraday or weekly supports. If they hold and the day closes green, upside likely; otherwise, downside continuation.
#ES and #NQ keep climbing, but the upward slope feels unsustainable without a pullback or sideways action. I’ve posted alerts on X about this.
Not sure when the pullback will come, but I’ve shared a cheat sheet below on what I look for in trend changes. I don’t predict the exact top/bottom, but my 3-level flag system helps with short-term bias.
I stay open to both upside and downside and trade guided by my support and resistance levels only.
Metals:
Metals closed October in red; bulls need to reclaim key levels to reverse the trend.
#SI claimed a level on Dec 4th but pulled back. If 31 holds, targets at 33/34/35 remain in play.
#CL:
Still weak after failing to hold 70 on Dec 3rd.
If 66.75 holds and 70 reclaims, 75+ is likely. Otherwise, expect more downside.
Overview:
Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:
Moving flag levels closer for early detection, but this could lead to more false positives, especially if a green reversal candle appears the next day.
Red Flags:
Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.
1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.
2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.
Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):
#ES: 6076, 6036, 5940
#NQ: 21420, 21135, 20805
#RTY: 2418 (triggered Dec 5th), 2317, 2082
#YM: 44820 (triggered Dec 6th), 44450, 43380
Quick Summary:
#ES: Bullish above 6092/82, bearish below 6075/66.
#NQ: Bullish above 21450, bearish below 21425.
#RTY: Bullish above 2405, bearish below 2400.
#YM: Bullish above 44675, bearish below 44675.
#SI: Bullish above 31.10, bearish below 31.
#GC: Bullish above 2640, bearish below 2639.
#PL: Bullish above 931, bearish below 930.
Coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout or breakdown needed for bigger moves.
#PA: Bullish above 1000, bearish below 979/946.
#CL: Bullish above 66.75, bearish below 66.75.
Holding $66 monthly support for 3 months. If it fails, expect a larger drop.
Bears lose control step by step 70.5 → 71.5 → 73
Weekly close > 76/75.10 needed for a sustained bullish move.
Quick Plays:
#ES:
Bulls keep momentum above 6082
As long 6092/82 holds, [6107/6110*], (6118*), 6135*, 6142, 6151*, (6185*), 6202*, (6230*), 6250*, 6260+ in play
If 6075 fails, [6066*/63*], 6056, [6049*], 6040, (6036*), [6032*], 6023*/6019*, (6015*), 6007*, 6000*/5996*, [5982*], 5976*, (5963*), 5953* (5943*), 5930*, 5912*, 5905*, (5900/5895*)- in play
Big picture
as long 6049 holds or reclaimed, 6185/6230/6260+ in play
5900 is first key monthly support level for bulls to defend if fails to hold 5745/32- in play. 5732 being second/last monthly support if fails 5627- in play
Key support & resistance levels:
Daily supports: 6063*, 6049*/36*, 6023/15*
Daily resistances: 6110/6118*, 6142/6150*, 6192*
Weekly supports: 6049*/36*, 6007*/5993*, 5976/5963*
Weekly resistances: 6118*, 6185*, 6230*
Monthly supports: 5900, 5745/32*, 5656/26*
Monthly resistances: 6118/6130*, 6250/6260*, 6370
#NQ:
Bulls keep momentum above 21450.
As long 21570/490/450 holds, [21640*], (21700*/21760*), 21800*, 21950, 22050*, (22125*), 22300, 22360*, [22530*/560*], 22700*, (23230*)+ in play
If 21425 fails, 21385*, [21350*/325*], (21305*), 21275*, (21130*), [21000*], (20940*), 20855, (20825*/805*), 21735*, 20715*, (20690*/675*), 20625*/595*, (20500*), 20475, 20420*, (20380*/360*), 20280, 20230, 20130/105*, 20070*, 20010*, 20000*, 19815, 19650*- in play
Big picture -
As long as 21000 holds or is reclaimed, the path to 22300 → 22360 → 23230 remains open.
If 20675 (monthly support) fails, watch for further downside towards 20500 → 20380 → 19650.
Key support & resistance levels:
Daily supports: 21425, 21305, 21130*
Daily resistances: 21700*/800*, 21950/22050*, 22530*
Weekly supports: 21305, 21000*/20940*, 20810*/735
Weekly resistances: 21700*, 22050*/22300, 22530*/22700*
Monthly supports: 20675*, 20070/20010*, 19815/19650*
Monthly resistances: 21760, 22360, 23230
#RTY:
Week ended red. Orange flag triggered Dec 5. Next day closed mildly green, offering bulls some hope. But 2435 must be reclaimed to ease bear pressure and sustain upward momentum.
As long 2405/2400/2397 holds, 2413, [2420/23*], 2430, [2433/35*], 2440, (2446*), 2454*, (2457/61*), 2485*, 2495, 2504, 2520*, 2524, (2540*/2545)+ in play
If 2397 fails, 2393, 2380*, (2368*), 2326*, 2350, (2318*/2306*), 2205, 2198*, 2068, 2033*- in play
Big picture
as long 2371 holds or reclaimed, 2575+ in play
Although 2205/2198* are second monthly support levels, if 2182 fails to hold bigger drop to 2068/2033 likely
Key support & resistance levels:
Daily supports: 2405/2397*, 2380/68*, 2338/2328*
Daily resistances: 2435*/2346*, 2457/61*, 2485/2504
Weekly supports: 2419*, 2368, 2318/2306*
Weekly resistances: 2495, 2540/2545, 2605
Monthly supports: 2317/2306, 2205/2198*, 2068/2033*
Monthly resistances: 2461*, 2520/2575*, 2630
#YM:
Week ended red despite a new high. Orange flag triggered Fri, Dec 6. Bulls must reclaim 44985 to counter bear pressure and push higher.
As long 44675 holds, (44795*), [44910*], 44980*, 45125*, 45290*, (45340*), 45570, 45600*/655, 45720*, 45825*, (45920*), 46105*, 46180*, 46350*, 46960, 47025*+ in play
If 44675 fails, 44590, 44500*, (44445*), 43985, 43810*, 43580*, 43480, (43400*), 43180*, 42990*, 42910*, 42440*, 42000*, 41970/950*, 41790*- in play
As wrote in Oct, Big picture - as long 43580 holds or reclaimed 45030/290*+ in play - nearly reached (45171 high so far)
Key support & resistance levels:
Daily supports: 44490**/44445*, 44240*, 43990/43810*
Daily resistances: 45150*/45290*, 45350*/45670, 45925*/46180*
Weekly supports: 44490**/44445, 43580**, 42990*
Weekly resistances: 45345*, 45720/45825*, 46180*
Monthly supports: 43580/43480*, 41970*/41790*, 40350*
Monthly resistances: 45675*, 46350*/46960*, 47025*
Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:
Uptrend to Downtrend:
Fail key support levels.
Reject first support in back tests.
Sell-the-rally mania.
Breakdowns with staying power.
Form lower highs & lows.
Downtrend to Uptrend:
Claim key resistance levels.
Hold second support in pullbacks.
Buy-the-dip frenzy.
Breakouts with staying power.
Form higher highs & lows.
Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:
Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.
Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)
Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.
Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).
Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar :
[Bonus]
Guidelines for Entry Confirmation
Candle Close Rules:
Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.
Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.
Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.
Handling Breakouts:
High Probability of Initial Failure:
Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.
Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.
Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.
Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.
Typical Stop Loss Examples:
#ES_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.
#NQ_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.
Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.
Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #ES_F
Long Strategy: When to Go Long
Entry Triggers for Long Positions:
Breakout Above Key Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistances:
Long above 6107, targeting 6118 → 6135
Long above 6118, targeting 6135 → 6151 → 6185.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Resistances:
Long above 6135, targeting 6151 → 6185 → 6230.
Long above 6185, targeting 6230 → 6250.
Pullbacks to Key Support Levels:
Intraday Supports:
Long on bounce from 6092, targeting 6107 → 6118.
Long on bounce from 6082, targeting 6092 → 6107.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Supports:
Long on bounce from 6066, targeting 6082 → 6092 → 6110.
Long on bounce from 6049, targeting 6066 → 6082.
Stop Loss (SL):
Intraday Trades: Place SL 3-5 points below entry.
Example: Long at 6092 → SL at 6089.
Swing Trades: Place SL 10-15 points below entry.
Example: Long at 6066 → SL at 6056.
Short Strategy: When to Go Short
Entry Triggers for Short Positions:
Breakdown Below Key Support Levels:
Intraday Supports:
Short below 6092, targeting 6082 → 6066.
Short below 6082, targeting 6066 → 6049.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Supports:
Short below 6066, targeting 6049 → 6036.
Short below 6049, targeting 6007 → 5900.
Rejections at Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistances:
Short on rejection at 6107, targeting 6092 → 6082.
Short on rejection at 6118, targeting 6107 → 6092.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Resistances:
Short on rejection at 6135, targeting 6118 → 6107.
Short on rejection at 6185, targeting 6135 → 6118.
Stop Loss (SL):
Intraday Trades: Place SL 3-5 points above entry.
Example: Short at 6107 → SL at 6110.
Swing Trades: Place SL 10-15 points above entry.
Example: Short at 6066 → SL at 6076.
Actionable Trade Examples
Intraday Long Trade:
Trigger: Breakout above 6107 (15m/hourly close).
SL: Below 6104 (3-point SL).
Targets: 6118 → 6135
Swing Long Trade:
Trigger: Bounce from 6066 (hourly/4-hourly close).
SL: Below 6056 (10-point SL).
Targets: 6082 → 6092
Intraday Short Trade:
Trigger: Breakdown below 6092 (15m/hourly close).
SL: Above 6095 (3-point SL).
Targets: 6082 → 6066
Swing Short Trade:
Trigger: Breakdown below 6049 (hourly/4-hourly close).
SL: Above 6059 (10-point SL).
Targets: 6036 → 6007
Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #NQ_F
Long Strategy: When to Go Long
Entry Triggers for Long Positions:
Breakout Above Key Resistance Levels:
Long above 21640, targeting 21700 → 21760 → 21800.
Long above 21800, targeting 21950 → 22050 → 22300.
Pullbacks to Key Support Levels:
Long on bounce from 21570, targeting 21640 → 21700 → 21760.
Long on bounce from 21425, targeting 21570 → 21640 → 21700.
Stop Loss (SL):
For Intraday Trades, place SL 15-20 points below entry.
Example: Long at 21640 → SL at 21620.
For Swing Trades, place SL 30-40 points below entry.
Example: Long at 21425 → SL at 21385.
Short Strategy: When to Go Short
Entry Triggers for Short Positions:
Breakdown Below Key Support Levels:
Short below 21425, targeting 21385 → 21350 → 21305.
Short below 21305, targeting 21130 → 21000 → 20940.
Rejections at Resistance Levels:
Short on rejection at 21700, targeting 21640 → 21570 → 21425.
Short on rejection at 21800, targeting 21700 → 21640 → 21570.
Stop Loss (SL):
For Intraday Trades, place SL 15-20 points above entry.
Example: Short at 21425 → SL at 21445.
For Swing Trades, place SL 30-40 points above entry.
Example: Short at 21700 → SL at 21740.
Actionable Trade Examples
Intraday Long Trade:
Trigger: Breakout above 21640.
SL: Below 21620 (20-point SL).
Targets: 21700 → 21760 → 21800.
Swing Long Trade:
Trigger: Bounce from 21425.
SL: Below 21385 (40-point SL).
Targets: 21570 → 21640 → 21700.
Intraday Short Trade:
Trigger: Breakdown below 21425.
SL: Above 21445 (20-point SL).
Targets: 21385 → 21350 → 21305.
Swing Short Trade:
Trigger: Rejection at 21700.
SL: Above 21740 (40-point SL).
Targets: 21640 → 21570 → 21425.
Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #YM_F
Long Setup:
Condition: Weekly support at 44500 or 44445 holds on the 1H/4H chart.
Action: Enter long.
Add to position: If price sustains above entry levels.
Targets: 44795, 44980, 45125+.
Alternative Condition: Price holds 44675 and avoids testing 44500/44445.
Action: Wait for a 44910 breakout on the 1H chart.
Entry: Long above 44910.
Stop-Loss (SL): Below the breakout candle.
Reentry Plan: If the breakout fails, reenter on a second successful claim of 44910.
Short Setup:
Condition: Price rejects 44910 or 44795.
Action: Enter short.
SL: Above the rejecting hourly candle.
Targets: 44500/44445.
Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #RTY_F
Long Setup:
Condition: Weekly support at 2372/2368 holds on the 1H/4H chart.
Action: Enter long.
Targets: 2400, 2420, 2434.
Alternative Condition: Price holds 2405 without dropping below it.
Action: Wait for a 2423 breakout on the 1H chart.
Entry: Long above 2423.
Stop-Loss (SL): Below the breakout candle.
Reentry Plan: If the breakout fails, reenter on a second successful claim of 2423.
Short Setup:
Condition: Price rejects 2435 or 2446.
Action: Enter short.
SL: Above the rejecting hourly candle.
Targets: Look for intraday supports at 2440, 2423/2420, 2413, and 2405.
[Bonus -2]
Here’s a recap of the levels and trade ideas from last week's newsletter for #ES and #NQ, now included as a bonus with annotated hourly charts.
This breakdown highlights chart reading and trade setups.
Overview:
Most long and one short play for #ES and #NQ worked as planned.
A couple of short plays didn’t pan out.
For #RTY and #YM, most short plays worked, but long plays (Sunday night) missed targets for #RTY.
Price Action Note: Both #RTY & #YM were choppier, especially #YM, so I avoided most trades last week.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.