Weekly Charts Reading for 12/02- 12/06
New Month, New Hustle
Easing back into trading after extended travel, this newsletter focuses on key levels and quick index futures plays.
As a bonus experiment, I’ve added back detailed trading plans in different format for #ES and #NQ to illustrate how to turn levels into actionable execution strategies. Hope it helps!
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
How’s last week?
Last week: Index futures closed the week green and the month solidly green, while metals lost ground, ending both in red alongside crude oil.
Treasuries (#ZB), however, turned green and are showing a hint of bullishness after October’s steep decline.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (12/02 – 12/06)
Busy week ahead with key economic reports.
Wednesday afternoon: Fed Chair Powell speaks in a discussion.
All 4 major index futures closed the month solidly green.
Bullish bias remains unless support levels (shared below) fail.
Metals (#GC, #SI, #PL, #PA) ended the month in varying shades of red.
Bulls need to reclaim key resistances to turn the tide.
Crude oil (#CL) also closed red but held the critical $66 support for the 3rd month.
Bulls might have one last shot—watch for resistance at $70, $71, and $75/76.
Overview:
Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:
Keeping flag levels tighter for early detection. This could lead to more false positives, especially if a green reversal candle appears the next day.
Red Flags:
Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.
1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.
2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.
Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):
#ES: 6015, 5963, 5940
#NQ: 20805, 20675, 20500
#RTY: 2418, 2317, 2082
#YM: 44820, 44450, 43380
Quick Summary:
#ES: Bullish above 6021/6015, bearish below 6000/5996.
#NQ: Bullish above 20825, bearish below 20805.
#RTY: Bullish above 2441/2430, bearish below 2419.
#YM: Bullish above 44845/44450, bearish below 44450.
#SI: Bullish above 30.56/30.35, bearish below 30.35.
Bulls need to claim 31.67 on the daily to target 33/34+. Until then, bulls remain weak.
#GC: Bullish above 2669/2657/2650, bearish below 2650.
#PL: Bullish above 944/941, bearish below 940.
Coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout or breakdown needed for bigger moves.
#PA: Bullish above 1000, bearish below 979/946.
#CL: Bullish above 69.70, bearish below 66.75.
Holding $66 monthly support for 3 months. If it fails, expect a larger drop.
Weekly close > 76/75.10 needed for a sustained bullish move.
Quick Plays:
#ES:
Bulls keep momentum above 6018
As long 6044/38 holds, [6056*]/6064/[6075*/80]/(6118*)/6135*/(6185*)+ in play
If 6038 fails, 6032/[6021*/6019]/(6015*)/6007*/6000*/[5996*]/5988/[5982*]/5976*/(5963*)/5953*/5943*/5930*/5912*/5905*/(5900/5895*)- in play
Big picture - as long 5940 holds or reclaimed, 6110/6185/6260+ in play
5900 is first key monthly support level for bulls to defend if fails to hold 5745/32- in play. 5732 being second/last monthly support if fails 5627- in play
Key support & resistance levels:
Daily supports: 6021/19*/15*, 5963*, 5940/5930*
Daily resistances: 6056*, 6075/80*, 6110/6118*
Weekly supports: 6007/5993*, 5900*, 5855*
Weekly resistances: 6056*, 6118*, 6185*
Monthly supports: 5900, 5745/32*, 5656/26*
Monthly resistances: 6118/6130*, 6250/6260*, 6370
#NQ:
Bulls keep momentum above 20830. Claiming 21250 resistances, key for bulls.
As long 20955/910 holds, [21015*], [21080*], 21120*, 21190, (21250), (21350*), 21390, 21430/450*, 21570, (21700*/760*), 22050, (22300/360*)+ in play
If 20905 fails, 20855, (20825*/805*), 20745*, 20715*, (20690*/675*), 20625*/595*, (20500*), 20475, 20420*, (20380*/360*), 20280, 20230, 20130/105*, 20070/010*, 20000*, 19815, 19650*-
Big picture - as long 20595 holds or reclaimed 22300/650*/23230 in play
20675 first monthly support level if fails, 20500/20380 in play which corresponds to second weekly support levels where bulls must defend else test of 19650/19500 likely
Key support & resistance levels:
Daily supports: 20825/20805, 20500/20380*, 20130/20000
Daily resistances: 21190, 21250/350*, 21430/21700*
Weekly supports: 20810, 20500/20360, 20105/20000*
Weekly resistances: 21250*, 21570/21700, 22050/22300
Monthly supports: 20675, 20070/20010*, 19815/19650*
Monthly resistances: 21390/21450, 21760, 22360
#RTY:
Bulls keep momentum above 2434. Claiming 2461 resistance, key for bulls.
As long 2444/2441/2437 holds, (2457*/2461*), 2485*, 2495, 2504, 2520*, 2524, (2540*/2545), 2552, (2575*), 2605, 2630*+ in play
If 2434 fails, 2428*, (2418*), 2411, 2405*, 2380*, (2368*), 2326*, 2350, (2318*/2306*), 2205, 2198*, 2068, 2033*- in play
Big picture - as long 2371 holds or reclaimed, 2575+ in play
Although 2205/2198* are second monthly support levels, if 2182 fails to hold bigger drop to 2068/2033 likely
Key support & resistance levels:
Daily supports: 2437*/2428, 2418*/2405*, 2368*
Daily resistances: 2457/2461, 2485/2504, 2524/2552
Weekly supports: 2419*, 2368, 2318/2306
Weekly resistances: 2495, 2540/2545, 2605
Monthly supports: 2317/2306, 2205/2198*, 2068/2033*
Monthly resistances: 2461, 2520/2575*, 2630
#YM:
Bulls keep momentum > 44845.
As long 44845 holds, 45120*, 45290*, (45340*), 45570, 45600*/655, 45720*, 45825*, (45920*), 46105*, 46180*, 46350*, 46960, 47025*+ in play
If 44845 fails, (44790*), 44500*, (44445*), 43985, 43810*, 43580*, 43480, (43400*), 43180*, 42990*, 42910*, 42440*, 42000*, 41970/950*, 41790*- in play
As wrote in Oct, Big picture - as long 43580 holds or reclaimed 45030/290*+ in play - nearly reached (45171 high so far)
Key support & resistance levels:
Daily supports: 44845/820*, 44490/44445*, 4395/43810*
Daily resistances: 45120*/45290*, 45350*/45670, 45925*/46180*
Weekly supports: 44490*/44445, 43580*, 42990*
Weekly resistances: 45345*, 45720/45825*, 46180*
Monthly supports: 43580/43480*, 41970*/41790*, 40350*
Monthly resistances: 45675*, 46350*/46960*, 47025*
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar :
[Bonus]
Guidelines for Entry Confirmation
Candle Close Rules:
Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.
Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.
Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.
Handling Breakouts:
High Probability of Initial Failure:
Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.
Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.
Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.
Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.
Typical Stop Loss Examples:
#ES_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.
#NQ_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.
Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.
Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #ES_F
Long Strategy: When to Go Long
Entry Triggers for Long Positions
Breakout Above Key Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistances: Long above:
6056, targeting 6064 → 6075.
6064, targeting 6075 → 6080.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Resistances: Long above:
6075, targeting 6080 → 6118.
6118, targeting 6130 → 6185.
Pullbacks to Key Support Levels:
Intraday Supports: Long on bounce from:
6044, targeting 6056 → 6064.
6032, targeting 6044 → 6056.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Supports: Long on bounce from:
6021/19, targeting 6032 → 6044.
6007, targeting 6032 → 6056.
Stop Loss (SL)
Intraday Trades: Place SL 3-5 points below entry.
Example: Long at 6056 → SL at 6053.
Swing Trades: Place SL 10-15 points below entry.
Example: Long at 6007 → SL at 5997.
Short Strategy: When to Go Short
Entry Triggers for Short Positions
Breakdown Below Key Support Levels:
Intraday Supports: Short below:
6044, targeting 6038 → 6032.
6032, targeting 6027 → 6021.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Supports: Short below:
6021, targeting 6015 → 5993.
5993, targeting 5900 → 5855.
Rejections at Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistances: Short on rejection at:
6056, targeting 6044 → 6038.
6064, targeting 6056 → 6044.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Resistances: Short on rejection at:
6075, targeting 6064 → 6056.
6118, targeting 6075 → 6064.
Stop Loss (SL)
Intraday Trades: Place SL 3-5 points above entry.
Example: Short at 6044 → SL at 6047.
Swing Trades: Place SL 10-15 points above entry.
Example: Short at 6021 → SL at 6031.
Actionable Trade Examples
1. Intraday Long Trade:
Trigger: Breakout above 6056 (15m/hourly close).
SL: Below 6053 (3-point SL).
Targets: 6064 → 6075 (at least 10 points).
2. Swing Long Trade:
Trigger: Bounce from 6007 (weekly support; hourly close confirmation).
SL: Below 5997 (10-point SL).
Targets: 6056 → 6075 (at least 30 points).
3. Intraday Short Trade:
Trigger: Breakdown below 6044 (15m/hourly close).
SL: Above 6047 (3-point SL).
Targets: 6038 → 6032 (at least 10 points).
4. Swing Short Trade:
Trigger: Breakdown below 6021 (daily support; hourly close confirmation).
SL: Above 6031 (10-point SL).
Targets: 6015 → 5993 (at least 30 points).
Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #NQ_F
Long Strategy: When to Go Long
Entry Triggers for Long Positions:
Breakout Above Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistances: Long above:
21015, targeting 21080 → 21190.
21080, targeting 21190 → 21250.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Resistances: Long above:
21190, targeting 21250 → 21350 → 21430.
21350, targeting 21450 → 21700.
Bounce from Support Levels:
Intraday Supports: Enter long on a strong bounce from:
20955, 20910, or 20855 with 15m/hourly confirmation.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Supports: Long from:
20825/20805, targeting 20955 → 21015.
20675, targeting 20825 → 20855 → 20955.
Stop Loss (SL):
Intraday trades: 20-25 points below entry.
Swing trades: 30-35 points below entry.
Targets:
Intraday: Next resistance level.
Swing: Next daily/weekly/monthly resistance levels.
Short Strategy: When to Go Short
Entry Triggers for Short Positions:
Breakdown Below Support Levels:
Intraday Supports: Short below:
20955, targeting 20910 → 20855.
20910, targeting 20855 → 20825.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Supports: Short below:
20825, targeting 20805 → 20745.
20675, targeting 20625 → 20500.
Rejections at Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistances: Short on rejection at:
21015, targeting 20955 → 20910.
21080, targeting 20990 → 20955.
Daily/Weekly/Monthly Resistances: Short on rejection at:
21250, targeting 21190 → 21120.
21430, targeting 21350 → 21250.
Stop Loss (SL):
Intraday trades: 20-25 points above entry.
Swing trades: 30-35 points above entry.
Targets:
Intraday: Next support level.
Swing: Next daily/weekly/monthly support levels.
Actionable Trade Examples
1. Intraday Long Trade:
Trigger: Breakout above 21015 (hourly close).
SL: Below 20990 (25-point SL).
Targets: 21080 → 21190.
2. Swing Long Trade:
Trigger: Bounce from 20825 (daily support; hourly confirmation).
SL: Below 20790 (35-point SL).
Targets: 21015 → 21190.
3. Intraday Short Trade:
Trigger: Breakdown below 20955 (hourly close).
SL: Above 20980 (25-point SL).
Targets: 20910 → 20855.
4. Swing Short Trade:
Trigger: Breakdown below 20500 (weekly support; daily close confirmation).
SL: Above 20535 (35-point SL).
Targets: 20380 → 20360 → 20130.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Thank you! Thank you for your interest in others experiencing success by sharing your insight of the market.
God bless you!!!