Weekly Charts Reading for 1/20- 1/24
Full Throttle or Pit Stop?
Keeping this newsletter short and sweet—but I think you’ll find it actionable and helpful for your trading!
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
How’s last week?
Last week played out just as expected! Here's a quick recap:
Sunday/Monday downside hit the exact targets/support levels I posted.
As mentioned last week, if those levels were tested before any upside move, they were likely to hold—and they did!
Like I said: "If these key levels are tested and we see a quick bounce that holds for an hour/4hr/day, those levels are likely to hold."
Sure enough, the market held those key support levels all week, right where a bounce was expected.
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (1/20 – 1/24)
Thursday and Friday bring the usual economic reports, including key Unemployment Claims and PMI.
Last week, markets hit both key support and resistance levels. Now comes the tricky part—continuation, sideways, or reversal?
Here’s my take:
If Friday’s open/low prices hold, the bias stays bullish for upside continuation.
If they fail, expect sideways or reversal action bringing back test of downside targets in play
Sunday/Monday price action will be key (even with RTH markets closed Monday) - JMO
Key Reminders:
Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).
I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.
Events Calendar :
Quick Summary:
#ES
Bullish above 6018/5994, Bearish below 5969
Bulls still need to reclaim 6048 to take control from bears and confidently push higher.
Claiming 6068 would provide confirmation of bullish strength.
#NQ
Bullish above 21345, Bearish below 21210
Bulls still need to reclaim 21810 to take control from bears and confidently push higher.
Claiming 21900 would provide confirmation of bullish strength.
#RTY
Bullish above 2284/80, Bearish below 2274
Bulls still need to reclaim 2305 to take control from bears and confidently push higher.
Claiming 2310/14 would provide confirmation of bullish strength.
#YM
Bullish above 43615, Bearish below 43320
Bulls still need to reclaim 43750 to take control from bears and confidently push higher.
Claiming 43960 would provide confirmation of bullish strength.
#SI
Bullish above 30.96/30.60, Bearish below 30.58
Bulls still weak < 31.65
31.60, 32.60, 33+ in play as long 30.60 holds/reclaimed
Daily close above 31.65 needed to continuation toward 33/34/35+
#GC
Bullish above 2722, Bearish below 2720
Last week reclaimed 2684 and hit key resistance 2759 (2759.2 high) & pulled back
Third touch or second attempt to reclaim. So far showing rejection hence holding 2722 & claiming 2759 key for Bullish continuation
If 2720 fails, could bring 2698/2694/2685- as back test targets
Bulls control > 2684, & brings 2759/2790/2850+ in play
#PL
Bullish above 942, Bearish below 939
Bulls weak < 995
As wrote for many weeks now price is coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout or breakdown needed for bigger moves.
Last month's low 907 & now back to 992 towards 1012/1035/1050/1065+
Bulls need to claim 970/995 to keep upside in play if 939 fails, 910- likely retest target
#PA
Bullish above 950, Bearish below 944
Bulls weak < 990 need to claim 990 to bring 1040/1050+ in play
Last month held 896 monthly support & this month low 904 & bounced
Bears lose control step by step 968 → 990 → 1025
Now 944 is critical level for bulls to defend and keep in play and reclaim 990/1010/1040
#CL
Bulls hit 80.15 and almost 80.80 (high 80.77) but pulled back sharply.
Bulls need to defend 77.25 or 76.70/76.55 to keep 79.15, 80.50, 81.35+ in play.
If 76.54 fails: likely retest 74.29/73.30.
Quick Plays:
#ES:
Key Levels Recap:
Bulls needed daily closes above 5951, 5975, and 6048/6068 last week.
Price hit 6048 (high: 6051) but didn’t close above 6036 or 6051, which were key levels from a zoomed-out perspective. This leaves slight hesitation about the strength of the bullish move.
Current Outlook:
If the low of the Friday's candle holds, 6095, 6108 and 6155+ are in play.
The breakout above the downtrend line keeps 5969 as solid support. Losing this level could shift momentum back to bears bringing 5900/5884/5861- in play.
A close above 6048, even on the hourly or 4-hour chart, would signal stronger bullish commitment and increase confidence in testing higher levels.
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls hold 5994 as support and quickly reclaim 6048 to target 6100/6155.
Big Picture
If 6036/6051 reclaimed on the daily: Targets 6105, 6127, 6153*, 6192*+.
If 5865 fails on the daily: Targets 5745/32 with 5820/15 as intermediate levels.
Support Levels
Intra-day support: 6017, 5994, 5969, 5960/52
Daily supports: 5968*, 5900*/5884*, 5861*
Weekly supports: 5930/5900*, 5861*, 5814*
Monthly supports: 5900/5865, 5745/25*, 5656/26*
Yearly supports: 5405, 5246, 5005
Resistance Levels
Intra-day resistance: 6048*, 6065/68*, 6083
Daily resistances: 6028/48*, 6068*, 6095*/6108
Weekly resistances: 6068, 6108*, 6127*
Monthly resistances: 6051, 6153*/90, 6248
Yearly resistances: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.
Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.
#NQ:
Key Levels Recap:
Bulls needed daily closes above 21380, 21550, and 21810/21900 last week.
Price hit a high of 21682 and closed above 21550, but hasn’t tested or claimed 21810/21900 yet. This leaves some hesitation about the bullish move despite a strong green daily candle.
Current Outlook:
Above 21345, bulls keep momentum from Friday
If Friday’s low holds, 21900, 22000, and 22200+ are in play.
The breakout above the downtrend line reinforces the 21210 key support. Losing this level would likely shift momentum back to bears, bringing 21000, 20930, 20800- in play
A close above 21650 on the 4-hour chart would show stronger commitment and increase the likelihood of further upside.
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls defend 21500/21480 and quickly reclaim 21810 to resume testing 22000/22200+.
Big Picture
Bullish if 21810 is reclaimed on daily: Targets 22080, 22310, 650*, 23230+.
Bearish until 21810 is claimed on the daily: Targets 20510/405- with 21000/20940 as intermediate levels to watch.
Support Levels
Intra-day supports: 21560, 21500/480, 21345*, 21230, 21180*
Daily supports: 21230/210*, 21000/20930, 20805*
Weekly supports: 21210*, 21000*/20930, 20510*/405*
Monthly supports: 20940*, 20070*/20010*, 19800*
Yearly supports: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465
Resistance Levels
Intra-day resistances: 21625/660*, 21710, 21770/810*
Daily resistances: 21810*/900*, 22000, 22135
Weekly resistances: 21750*, 21900*, 22080
Monthly resistances: 21900, 22425/525, 23200
Yearly resistances: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.
Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.
#RTY:
Key Levels Recap:
Bulls needed daily closes above 2255, 2278, and 2305/2310 last week.
Price hit a high of 2307.75 but couldn’t close above 2305. The daily green candle was decent but not fully convincing.
Current Outlook:
Above 2280, bulls keep momentum from Friday
If Friday’s low holds, 2305/2310/2314, 2336, and 2364+ are in play.
2274 is critical support. Losing this level could shift momentum back to bears, opening the path to 2236, 2222/2208, and possibly 2196-.
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls defend 2280 and quickly reclaim 2305 to target 2314/2336, 2364, and 2383+.
A close above 2305 on the hourly or 4-hour chart would show stronger commitment and reinforce the bullish move.
Big Picture
Bullish if 2310 is claimed on the daily: Targets 2363, 2386, 95+.
Bearish if 2181 fails to hold on the daily: Targets 2133, 2101*/2091-.
Support Levels
Intra-day supports: 2284/2280*, 2274, 2270/67
Daily supports: 2274*, 2240/36*, 2222/2208*
Weekly supports: 2235, 2196*, 2172*
Monthly supports: 2194/2181*, 2068/2033*, 1983
Yearly supports: 2194/2181*, 2058*, 1972*
Resistance Levels
Intra-day resistances: 2291/96, 2305*, 2310/2314
Daily resistances: 2310/2314*, 2364, 2394*
Weekly resistances: 2305*/2314*, 2373, 2405*
Monthly resistances: 2260, 2315*, 2435/45*
Yearly resistances: 2463, 2615/2756, 3000
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 2181/2058 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2315, 2463, 2615/2756+.
Bearish: If bears hold 2315/2445, targets 2081*, 2058*, 1972, 1916-.
#YM:
Key Levels Recap:
Bulls needed daily closes above 42905, 43380, and 43750 last week.
Price reached a high of 43866 but couldn’t close above 43750. Still, the daily green candle was solid.
Current Outlook:
Above 43615, bulls keep momentum from Friday
If Friday’s low holds, 43750/43960, 44230, and 44490+ are in play.
43320 is key support. Losing this level could shift momentum back to bears, targeting 42810, 42565, and 42210-.
Ideal Bullish Scenario:
Bulls defend 43615/43480 and reclaim 43775 to resume testing 43850/43960, 44230, and 44490+.
A close above 43775 on the hourly or 4-hour chart would confirm stronger bullish commitment.
Big Picture
Bullish if 43750 is claimed on the daily: Targets 43970*, 44150, 44240*, 44485+.
Bearish if 43000 fails to hold on the daily: Targets 42000, 41970**, 41790- (currently in play).
Support Levels
Intra-day supports: 43660/615*, 43535/43480*, 43385
Daily supports: 43320*, 42940/810*, 42565*/520*
Weekly supports: 42750*, 42000*, 41790*
Monthly supports: 41970**/41790*, 40350*/40030, 39590*
Yearly supports: 40330*/41260, 40100/39335, 37900
Resistance Levels
Intra-day resistances: 43730/775*, 43875, 43960*
Daily resistances: 43960, 44230*, 44490*
Weekly resistances: 44750, 44305/485*, 44750*
Monthly resistances: 43410, 44220, 45050/45095
Yearly resistances: 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685
Yearly View
Bullish: As long as 41790/40100 holds or is reclaimed, targets 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685+.
Bearish: If bears hold 44485/45050, targets 41790/40100/37870-.
Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:
Uptrend to Downtrend:
Fail key support levels.
Reject first support in back tests.
Sell-the-rally mania.
Breakdowns with staying power.
Form lower highs & lows.
Downtrend to Uptrend:
Claim key resistance levels.
Hold second support in pullbacks.
Buy-the-dip frenzy.
Breakouts with staying power.
Form higher highs & lows.
Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:
Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.
Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)
Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.
Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).
Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.
Guidelines for Entry Confirmation
Candle Close Rules:
Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.
Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.
Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.
Handling Breakouts:
High Probability of Initial Failure:
Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.
Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.
Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.
Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.
Typical Stop Loss Examples:
#ES_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.
#NQ_F:
Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.
Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.
Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.
What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?
More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above
Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly
Short-term: Daily
Long-term: Weekly
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.