Weekly Charts Reading for 11/13 - 11/17
Novembull?
How’s last week?
The expected deeper pullback on Sun/Mon/Tue didn't materialize, except for #RTY_F. Instead, the market experienced shallower pullbacks on these days and a milder upside move.
Due to the altered sequence of moves, the planned long trades didn't unfold as anticipated. However, the support levels were pinpoint accurate. Adjustments to trade plans were necessary as price action unfolded, particularly for #ES & #YM.
#RTY_F failed to hold the key support at 1747, leading to a downward move until Thursday/Friday morning. Daily bearish level to level plan worked perfectly.
Thursday, based on VIX, turned out to be the most volatile day. However, considering the larger move, Friday took the crown as the most volatile day in my book.
Rather than boasting about identified levels working well, I'll share a quote from a response I received on X: "Levels have been spot on! My most profitable week yet!"
Week Ahead (11/13 – 11/17)
I anticipate the bullish momentum from Friday to extend into the early days of the week, despite the change in the US credit rating outlook to negative by Moody's after Friday's close. Let’s see. 😊
Factors Favoring Bears:
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic uncertainties pose challenges.
The bullish close of #YM_F appears less convincing.
#RTY_F continues to exhibit weakness.
Key economic reports and FOMC speakers may introduce volatility.
Factors Favoring Bulls:
#ES_F and #NQ_F maintained strength, with #NQ triggering the 2nd Green Flag.
As expected, #DXY successfully back tested 105.950 and experienced a pullback.
Despite #RTY's deeper pullback, all indices resiliently held their support levels.
Note: My expertise doesn't extend to geopolitics or macro / micro economic analysis. Therefore, I categorize geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic conditions as factors that favor the bears, as they often introduce uncertainty and challenges to the market.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Events Calendar:
Next week looks to be busy with key CPI, PPI, Unemployment, and other reports. While FOMC members will be speaking during the week, their remarks may not bring significant volatility. However, other economic reports could contribute to market movements, specifically on Tuesday/Wednesday.
#ES_F / $SPX Futures: Marching up
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
A close above 4425 would have activated the 2nd Green flag, signaling a potential shift in the weekly downtrend. However, it fell just short at 4324.50.
Despite not conclusively closing > 4425, Friday's robust move leans towards triggering the 2nd Green flag.
Bulls now must defend the key level at the Friday low, 4354, to prevent a deeper pullback.
While caution is warranted due to the lack of a convincing close > 4425, bulls can demonstrate strength by holding 4418/4406 and ideally claiming 4448 early in the week.
Quick profits on short positions are advisable upon the trigger of the 2nd Green flag.
Monthly Viewpoint:
🐻 Bearish Goal: Decision pending until a trend change is observed on the daily chart.
🐂 Bullish Goal: Targeting 4515/4562.
Weekly Perspective:
🐻 Bearish: If 4390 fails, 4377/4365 become the next support/targets.
🐂 Bullish: Holding 4406 or at least 4390 opens the door to 4448/4492.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If support at 4406/4390 holds/reclaimed, 4448 is the next target.
Upon claiming 4448, the focus shifts to 4472.
A close above 4472 shifts the focus to the significant milestone of 4492.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 4390 fails, 4377/4365 become the target.
If 4365 fails, the next support levels are 4354/4347.
Failing 4354, 4330/4325 becomes the downside target.
Zoomed-out View:
As long as bulls hold 4390/4377, 4448/4515 are likely targets.
As long as 4257 holds, back test of July high likely
Key Levels:
Resistance: 4432*, 4448*, 4472, 4492, 4515*, 4562
Support: 4418/4406, 4390, 4377*, 4354*, 4330/4325
Possible Trade Plans:
Long Trade:
If the market opens lower but holds 4406, consider going long with a stop loss below 4406, targeting 4425 first and then 4432.
If the market opens lower but holds 4418, an opportunity to go long with a stop loss below 4418, targeting 4432.
Wait for the market to claim 4432, look for signs 4425/4418 is holding, and enter an opportunity to go long with a stop loss below 4418, targeting 4448 first and 4472 second.
If the market hasn't hit 4448 and shows signs of 4390 support holding, go long at 4390 with a stop loss below 4390, targeting 4432 as the first target and 4448 as the second.
Short Trades:
If the market opens up but fails to hold 4430/4432, look for signs of rejection, then short with a stop loss above 4432, targeting 4418 as the first target, 4406 as the second, and 4390 as the third.
If the market fails to hold 4390 and bears reject the 4406 level, assess the setup for a short position with a stop loss just above 4406 and a target of 4377/4365.
Note: These examples illustrate my approach to the levels. Variations may occur based on actual entry and market conditions.
Red Flags: Be vigilant for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days.
Orange Flag: A close below 4354 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 4325 on a red day may suggest the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 4257 on a red day, it indicates a potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#NQ_F / #NDX Futures: Trend line breakout!
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐂
Analysis:
Bulls held the precise support at 15130 (15138 low), concluding the week above the expected 2nd Green flag level of 15340.
Anticipate a continuation of the bullish move; however, caution is warranted as last week closed above the downward trend line, suggesting a potential back test.
Quick profits on short positions are advisable once the 2nd Green flag is triggered.
A pullback to 15500 or 15435 supports could be shallow, potentially leading to a quick move to 15680.
Key support levels for bulls to defend are 15435 and 15370, as indicated on both daily and weekly charts.
Monthly:
🐻 Bearish Target: Decision pending until a trend change is observed on the daily chart.
🐂 Bullish Target: 15725/15890.
Weekly Play:
🐻 Bearish: If 15370 fails, 15255/15208- is in play.
🐂 Bullish: If 15435/15370 holds or is reclaimed, 15680/15720+ is in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 15435/15370 holds or is reclaimed, 15680 is in play.
15680 claimed, 15720 is the next target.
15720 claimed, 15790 is the next target.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 15370 fails, 15255/15208 is in play.
If 15208 fails, 15130 is the next target.
If 15130 fails, 15018 is the subsequent target.
Zoomed-out View:
As long as 15370 holds/reclaimed, 15790/15890 is in play.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 15590, 15635, 15680*, 15720, 15790*, 15890
Support: 15500/15435, 15370*, 15305, 15208*, 15130
Possible Trade Plans:
Long Trade:
Depending on the price's journey before reaching the three key support levels (15500, 15435, and 15370), various trade opportunities may arise.
If the market hasn't touched 15680 and reclaims 15590, observe signs of holding at 15510/15500, then initiate a long position. Set a stop loss below 15500 with targets at 15635 & 15680.
Short Trade:
If the market opens either higher or lower (not yet tested 15500), look for signs of rejection at 15590 on a lower time frame. Go short with a stop loss above 15590 and targets at 15500 & 15435.
Note: These examples illustrate my approach to the levels. Variations may occur based on actual entry and market conditions.
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days.
Orange Flag: A close below 15208 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 14925 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 14760 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#YM_F / #DJI Futures: Pondering the run?
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
Mon through Wed, bulls held first support at 34045 and then 33890 (33913 low) on Friday, closing the week in green as expected.
Although it hit the 34360 target (34373 high), it was unable to close above 34360.
In fact, it couldn't even close above 34300 (34284 actual close), prompting caution to be added to the bullish bias.
Last week's tight range action suggests a buildup for a bigger move. The question is, will next week bring that big move or more consolidation?
34425 is the next key resistance that bulls must claim to continue back to September highs.
Monthly:
🐻 Bearish Target: Decision pending until a trend change is observed on the daily chart.
🐂 Bullish Target: 34800/35455.
Weekly Play:
🐻Bearish: If 34080 fails, 33958/33885- is in play.
🐂Bullish: If 34170/34080 holds or is reclaimed, 34360/34815+ is in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 34170/34080 holds, 34425 is in play.
34425 claimed, 34750 is the next target.
34750 claimed, 34942 is the subsequent target.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 34080 fails, 33958/33885 is in play.
If 33885 fails, 33685 is the next target.
If 33685 fails, 33420/33335 is the subsequent target.
Zoomed-out View:
As long as 34080 holds/reclaimed, 34815/35085 is in play.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 34300, 34425*, 34590, 34750, 34942
Support: 34170, 34080*, 33958, 33885, 33685
Possible Trade Plans:
Long Trade:
Depending on prior price action before reaching the three key support levels (34225, 34170, and 34080), there are potential long trade opportunities.
If the market hasn't reached 34425 and reclaims 34300, observe signs of holding at 34300/34225. Consider a long position with a stop loss below 34225 and targets at 34425 & 34590.
Short Trade:
After the market opens (without testing 34170), watch for signs of rejection at 34300/34360 on a lower time frame. Go short with a stop loss above 34300/34360 and targets at 34170 & 34080.
If 34080 fails, and based on the setup, consider a short entry near 34100. Set a stop loss above 34130 and target 33960 as the first target.
Note: These examples illustrate my approach to the levels. Variations may occur based on actual entry and market conditions.
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days.
Orange Flag: A close below 33885 questions the daily uptrend.
1st Red Flag: A close below 33335 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 32560 on a red day, indicating potential voiding of the short-term weekly uptrend bias.
#RTY_F / #RUT Futures: Waiting for the push!
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐻 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
After the strong bullish move the week before, RTY_F lost its second key support at 1747 quickly on Monday and continued moving down until Thursday.
Nearly reaching the 1686 target (1687.4 low) on Friday morning, RTY_F attempted to bounce.
Close above 1718.5 would have been bullish, but it pulled back sharply before the close, suggesting bulls lack confidence.
Hence changing the weekly and daily bias to cautious bearish
The potential significant downside move may be triggered by a close below 1675.4.
The closest level for bulls to defend is now 1695.
Bullish strength would be evident if bulls hold 1704 or at least 1695 and quickly reclaim 1718.5, followed by holding 1704 in subsequent pullbacks.
A green day close above 1734 would change the daily and weekly bias to bullish.
If 1695 fails to hold, especially on a 4-hour candle, bears strengthen, potentially affecting the broader market.
Monthly:
🐻 Bearish Target: 1686/1665.
🐂 Bullish Target: 1818.5/1865.
Weekly Play:
🐻 Bearish: If 1695 fails, 1686/1676- is in play.
🐂 Bullish: If 1704 or 1695 holds or is reclaimed, 1747/1780+ is in play.
Level by Level Bullish Play (on Daily):
If 1704/1695 holds, 1734 is in play.
1734 claimed, 1747 is the next target.
1747 claimed, 1780/1804 is the subsequent target.
Level by Level Bearish Play (on Daily):
If 1695 fails, 1686/1676 is in play.
If 1675.4 fails, 1658 is the next target.
If 1658 fails, 1648 is the subsequent target.
Zoomed-out View:
Until a green week closes above 1804, assume bearish pressure continues.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 1718.5, 1734, 1747, 1770, 1780, 1804*
Support: 1704, 1695, 1686*, 1675.4, 1658, 1648
Possible Trade Plans:
Long Trade:
If signs of holding at 1704 appear on a lower time frame, initiate a long trade with a stop loss below 1704. First target: 1718.5.
If signs of holding at 1695 emerge on a lower time frame and 1718.5 has not been tested yet, consider a long entry near 1695. Set a stop loss below 1695 and targets at 1718.5, 1734, and 1747.
Short Trade:
If the price hasn't touched 1704 and shows signs of rejection at 1718.5, enter a short position with a stop loss above 1720. Targets: 1704 and 1695.
If 1695 fails, and based on the setup, consider a short entry near 1695/1697. Set a stop loss above 1699 and targets at 1686 & 1676.
Note: These examples illustrate my approach to the levels. Variations may occur based on actual entry and market conditions.
Green Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bullish reversal on green days.
Lime Flag: A close above 1734 on a green day could indicate that the daily downtrend bias is in question (moved up from 1702).
1st Green Flag: If the market closes above 1780 on a green day, it may suggest that the short-term weekly downtrend bias is in question.
2nd Green Flag: A significant bullish confirmation could occur if the market closes above 1804 on a green day, potentially voiding the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
#DXY / $USD: Bears waiting for signal?
📈 Weekly: Cautious 🐂 📊 Daily: Cautious 🐻
Analysis:
As expected after the close below the Orange flag level in the last week of October, a back test of 105.950 was anticipated.
#DXY completed this back test move on Thursday and Friday, reaching an actual high of 105.006.
The week closed in the green, prompting a change in the weekly bias to bullish.
However, there are early signs that 105.950 might be facing rejection based on Friday's close.
Caution is added to the weekly bullish bias due to the tentative nature of Friday's rejection.
If bears hold their ground at 105.950 on Sunday/Monday, a new downside move could gain steam.
The rejection on Friday still appears tentative, and a red day close below 105.270 or at least 105.515 would give bears more confidence.
The same levels and play as last week are expected if bulls continue to push further up.
From Last Week's Write-up:
If 106.200 is claimed, 106.50/106.815 are the next levels where bears may step in.
If 106.815 is claimed, it surely starts a new bullish leg back to 107.275, 107.750 & higher.
Note that the inverse correlation between USD and #NQ #ES, which started showing some weakness last week.
Red Flags: Keep an eye out for potential signs of a bearish reversal on red days.
Orange Flag: A close below 105.515 on a red day indicates the daily uptrend is in question. (Triggered on Nov 3rd).
1st Red Flag: A close below 104.420 on a red day may suggest that the short-term weekly uptrend bias is in question.
2nd Red Flag: If the market closes below 104.025 on a red day, indicating the potential voiding of the short-term weekly downtrend bias.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading that thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. While I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
May your entries be spot-on and your exits even better!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.