Weekly Charts Reading for 10/21- 10/25
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Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
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Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!
How’s last week?
Last week, metals dazzled, Treasuries slipped like crude, #ES & #YM hit new highs, #RTY flexed bullish, but #NQ sulked like an uninterested teen. 😒
✅ #ES held first weekly support at 5852, bullish above 5823 (5850 low), closing green.
✅ #NQ held bullish above 20195 (20215 low) and closed the week green.
✅ #RTY held 2240 support, bullish above 2236 (2240.2 low), closing green.
✅ #YM held 42915 support, bullish above 42730 (42937 low), and closed the week in strong green.
✅ #GC bulls claimed 2681.5, hitting a new ATH.
✅ #SI dipped below 31.325 early in the week but reclaimed and hit 32.60, then 33.95 target.
✅ #ZB held 119'12 (119'14 low), hit 121'20 (121'23 high), but pulled back to test monthly support.
#NQ still lagging... or coiling up nicely? 🤔
Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.
Week Ahead (10/21 – 10/25)
With economic reports coming later this week, the spotlight is on earnings season, which is in full swing.
#NQ has been lagging for weeks. Bulls seem hesitant, but this could just be coiling for a bigger move. Whether up or down depends on key support levels holding. (Note: a quick dip below, but reclaiming same day or next, is still bullish.)
If bulls keep the uptrend alive, we might see a new ATH rally in the next couple of weeks, followed by profit-taking and a big bear move. (Just speculation, not a trading plan.)
My simple trading plan:
If support holds, go long.
If support fails, go short.
FWIW, here’s what I wrote back in January 2024 for yearly targets:
#ES
🐂 Bullish: 4420/4350 holds, targets 5615/6110+
🐻 Bearish: Waiting for monthly trend to turn bearish
#NQ
🐂 Bullish: 14265/14140 holds, targets 20320/22640
🐻 Bearish: Will decide when monthly trend turns bearish
#YM
🐂 Bullish: 35315/33915 holds, targets 41900/45030+
🐻 Bearish: Waiting for monthly trend to turn bearish
#RTY
🐂 Bullish: 1867 holds, targets 2047/2461/2575+
🐻 Bearish: Will determine when monthly trend turns bearish
Overview:
Except for #NQ, moving flag levels up for early detection of trend change.
Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:
Red Flags:
Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.
1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.
2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.
Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):
#ES: 5850(Orange), 5811(1st Red), 5740(2nd Red)
#NQ: 20195(Orange), 19860(1st Red), 19635(2nd Red)
#RTY: 2265(Orange), 2240(1st Red), 2206(2nd Red)
#YM: 43250(Orange), 42935(1st Red), 42665(2nd Red)
Quick Summary:
#ES bullish above 5861, bearish below 5850
#NQ bullish above 20295, bearish below 20270
#RTY bullish above 2269, bearish below 2264
#YM bullish above 43430, bearish below 43300
#SI bullish above 32.65, bearish below 32.20
#GC bullish above 2708, bearish below 2688
#PL bullish above 1005, bearish below 1000
#CL bullish above 68.40, bearish below 67.05
Quick Plays:
#ES
Bullish: As long as 5886/5873 holds or is reclaimed, targets 5919*/5924*/5936*/5942*/5948*/5956/5962*/5972/5985*/5993*/6002*/6026*/6040*/6048*/6068/6080*/6092*+ are in play.
Bearish: If 5873 fails, targets 5861*/5855/(5850*)/5845/5838*/5831/(5823*)/5816*/5811*/5807*/5803*/(5798*/5793*)/5787* are in play.
Bigger picture: Bulls need to hold 5886/5873 to maintain Friday's momentum. A quick dip to 5861 with a reclaim of 5886 is still bullish. Otherwise, support at 5850/5831*/5816*/5811* is next.
#NQ
Bullish: As long as 20430/20400 holds, targets 20500/(20530*)/20560*/20595*/20630*/(20685*)/20795*/20915*/(21065*)/21260*/21300*/21465*/21600*/21710/21965*+ are in play.
Bearish: If 20400 fails, targets 20375/20335*/(20295*)/20270*/20230/(20195*)/20065**/20000*/19940* are in play.
Bigger picture: Bulls need to hold or reclaim 20295/20270 to keep the bullish trend. Otherwise, 20295*/20270*/20195* become next support.
#RTY
Bullish: As long as 2288.5/2283 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2298/(2305/2308*)/2311/2320*/(2332*)/(2346*)/2363/(2373*)/(2403*)/(2428*)+ are in play.
Bearish: If 2283 fails, targets 2280*/2272*/(2269*/2264*)/2259*/2255/2248**/(2240*)/2220*/2206*/2195* are in play.
Bigger picture: Bulls must defend 2248/2240 to keep the yearly and ATH targets (2320/2350/2372*/2427/2462*+) in play.
#YM
Bullish: As long as 43495/43435 holds or is reclaimed, targets 43565*/(43630*)/43720*/43780*/43930*/(43980*)/44210/44290*/44425/44705*/45030*+ are in play.
Bearish: If 43430 fails, targets 43355/43300*/(43255*)/43020*/(42935*)/42850/42735*/42700/(42665*)/42585*/42375*/(42255*) are in play.
Hit my first yearly target of 41900 in Sept, and 45030 is now within reach!
#DXY
After 3 bullish weeks, Friday hinted at a pullback. A red close below 103.035 or 103.170 would boost bear confidence.
If 103.170 or 103.035 holds, targets 103.800/103.875*/104.305/104.450*+ are in play.
A close below 102.365 likely brings more downside.
Crude Oil #CL:
Bears in control, but bulls reclaiming 72.15, 74.10, & 75.80 step by step weakens their grip.
Bullish: If 68.60/68.40 holds or is reclaimed, targets 69.20*/70.10*/70.50/71/71.75*/(72.15*)/72.85/(74.15*)/75/75.50*/(75.80*)/76.25*/77.30 are in play.
Bearish: If 68.40 fails, targets 67.45/(67.05*)/66.65**/65.40*/65/(63.65*)/62.45*/61.58* are in play.
Metals:
#SI (Silver)
Bullish: If 33.245/32.79/32.65 holds, targets 34.15*/34.60/35/35.70*/(36.70*)/37*/37.60*/(39.85*)/41.50*/(43.50*)/44.30*/(48.10*)/50*+ are in play.
Bearish: If 32.65 fails, targets 32.50/(32.20*)/31.86*/31.65*/(31.48*)/31.375*/(31.17*)/31** are in play.
Bulls must defend Oct 17th & 18th's lows to keep 35.70/36.70/39.85/43.5/48.10+ in play, or 31.375/31.17/31/30.70* is next.
#GC (Gold)
Bullish: If 2721/2717 holds, targets 2738*/2742/2750*/2768*/2782*/2798*+ are in play.
Bearish: If 2717 fails, targets 2708/2704/2695*/2683*/2675*/2663*/2653*/2632/2625* are in play.
Oct 17th & 18th's lows are key for bulls to defend against deeper pullbacks.
#PL (Platinum)
Bullish: If 1005/1000 holds, targets 1031/1037/(1045*)/1050*/(1056*/1058*)/1072*/1076*/(1095*)/(1105*)/1138*+ are in play.
Bearish: If 1000 fails, targets 995/992*/986/980*/974*/970/965*/960*/955*/940* are in play.
As long as 1000 holds or is reclaimed, the bullish move continues. If it fails, back to chop at 981/965/960.
Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.
Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”
Events Calendar :
[Bonus]
#ZB 30-Year US Treasury Bonds:
Held 119'12 (119'14 low) and hit 121'20 (121'23 high), but couldn't claim it. Bulls still weak below 123'20.
Bulls have a slim chance but need to defend 120' and reclaim 120'10/120'15 & 120'25 quickly to target 121'05/121'18/122'00/122'10+
If 119'14 fails on the daily, more downside and chop likely, targeting 118'20*/118'12/118'00/117'30*/117'10*.
Note about Terminology:
In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.
Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution
Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!
Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.
Wish you a great trading week!
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.