Weekly Charts Reading for 10/07- 10/11

Gear Shifts, Mirror Check?

Oct 06, 2024

The new format is shorter but covers more instruments—still packed with sharp, actionable, and accurate insights!

Hope it helps with your trading. If it does, remember—free content deserves a tip in the form of likes, shares, and reposts! 😂

Due to limited time available and feedback received, this edition skips the usual detailed index futures analysis. However, it still includes key support and resistance levels and my overall lean.
Key points:
Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).
If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.
Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.
If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.
I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.
As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.
Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.
Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

Last week, I said:
"Bulls need to reclaim key levels (in Quick Play), ideally by Sunday night, or bears will sharpen their claws."
The battle lines:
- 🆗 #ES: 5805 – touched 5816, missed 5826, bulls blinked, and bears pounced
- ✅ #NQ: 20390 – tapped out at 20287, never claimed, bears strutted in
- ✅ #RTY: 2256 – grazed 2256.9, couldn’t hold, bears flexed
- ✅ #YM: 42775 – fell short at 42715, bears said “thank you”
✅ As predicted, volatility threw open the doors for both sides to play! 🎯
✅ Bonus win on #CL: Bounced right off that monthly support of 66 – week’s low: 66.33! Nailed it!
❌ Thought #RTY would keep climbing, but Oct 1st? It hit the eject button and tanked.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Week Ahead (10/07 – 10/11)

With Monday and Tuesday looking eerily calm, Friday’s energy might just roll into the start of the week.
Despite last week's wild swings, prices have barely budged over the past 2-3 weeks. Ready for bigger move?
Heads up: FOMC minutes drop Wednesday afternoon, but the real action (CPI, PPI, Unemployment Claims) hits Thursday/Friday.
Oh, and don’t forget, earnings from heavyweights like JPM, WFC, BK, DAL, BLK are also landing Thursday/Friday.
Translation? Buckle up for more fireworks later in the week.
Bulls need to claim those key levels (see Quick Play section) ASAP, or it's quick hits and level-to-level profits for now.
As long as support holds, bulls stay in play.
In general Friday’s (Oct 4th) lows are now key levels for bulls to defend

Overview:

Week closed slight green, but no significant move from the previous week. Hence keeping flag levels the same.
On Sept 19th, #ES, #NQ, and #RTY triggered their 2nd Green Flags. Now, bulls need to defend the lows from Sept 18th and 19th in case of a deeper pullback. - So far bulls defended these levels good.
Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:
- Red Flags:
  - Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.
  - 1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.
  - 2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.
- Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):
  - #ES: 5690 (Orange), 5597 (1st Red), 5540 (2nd Red)
  - #NQ: 19635 (Orange), 19400 (1st Red), 19095 (2nd Red)
  - #RTY: 2234 (Orange), 2207 (1st Red), 2174 (2nd Red)
  - #YM: 41905 (Orange), 41375 (1st Red), 41125 (2nd Red)

Quick Summary:

#ES bullish above 5750, bearish below 5740
#NQ bullish above 20035, bearish below 19940
#RTY bullish above 2202, bearish below 2195
#YM bullish above 42405, bearish below 42250
#SI bullish above 32.05, bearish below 31.90
#GC bullish above 2657, bearish below 2657
#PL bullish above 1000, bearish below 991
#CL bullish above 73.45, bearish below 73.45

Quick Plays:

#ES:
- As long as 5785/78*/71/65* holds and 5801 & 5814 are reclaimed, targets: 5822/26*/39*/44/52/(63*)/78/86*/94*/(5902*)/5930+ in play
- If 5765 fails: 5750*/(43*/40*)/35*/(26*)/06*/(5690*)/(75*/70*)/54/43- in play
- Bigger picture: If 5750/40 holds, 5890/94/5940*+ in play. Bulls must hold 5743/40 to keep Friday's move alive, otherwise 5690/75- becomes support.
#NQ:
- As long as 20155/110/080* holds and 20245 & 20290 are reclaimed, targets: (20335*)/360/400*/440*/500*/525/535*/(600*/635*)/(685*)/740/(800*)/870*/(920*)/21050*+ in play
- If 20080 fails: 20035*/19995*/965/(940**)/19000/880*/840*/720*/680*/(650/630*)/580*/500*- in play
- Bigger picture: If 20035 or at least 19940 holds, 21175/545/22000+ in play. Bulls must hold 19965/940 to maintain momentum, or 19650/630 becomes the next support.
#RTY:
- As long as 2221/14.5/06 holds and 2233 & 2247 are reclaimed, targets: 2250*/(53*)/65*/(68*)/78*/(89**)/93*/(2305*)/20*/(2332*)/(46*)/63/(73*)/(2403*)/(28*)+ in play
- If 2206 fails: (2202)/2198*/(95*)/88*/(83*/74)/51*/36*- in play
- Bulls weak until 2253 is claimed on the daily.
#YM:
- As long as 42500/405 holds and 42660 is reclaimed, targets: 42715*/750*/855/915*/(43000/040*)/175*/280*/320*/430*/(630*)/720*/(980*)+ in play
- If 42405 fails: 42370*/275/(42250**)/210/140*/010/(41950*/905*)/840/795*/640*/425/(400*/375*)- in play
#DXY:
- As long as 101.908 or 101.810 holds, targets: 102.760/103.055/103.280+ in play
- If 101.810 fails: 101.630/101.520/101.330- in play
- Bears hopeful if red day closes below 101.630; confident below 101.150.
- Short-term trend flipped bullish after four failed attempts to close under 100.275. Expect pressure on #RTY.
Crude Oil #CL:
- Closed at key 74.45 resistance. Bulls need to defend Friday’s open/lows to keep momentum, or we dip to 72.50/71.85/71.50/71.
- If 74.35/73.90 holds, targets: 75.80*/76.20/76.60*/77.20*/77.55*/78.10*/78.75*+ in play
- If 73.90 fails: (73.45*)/72.95/72.50/71.85/71.50/(71*/70.80*)/70.50/70*/69.70*- in play
- A quick dip to 72.95, followed by a reclaim of 73.45/73.65 the same day, is still bullish. Bulls need to defend 71.85/71.50 in deeper pullbacks to keep last week's momentum alive. Below 68.30, expect more chop and negation of last week’s move.

Metals:

Silver #SI:
- If 32.37/32.25 holds and 32.60 & 32.80 are reclaimed, targets: 33.05*/33.20/(33.54*)/(33.75*)/33.95/34.15/34.60/35+ in play
- If 32.25 fails: 32.10/32.03/(31.90*)/31.75*/31.65/31.44*/(31.24*/31.10)/(31**)/30.65/30.40*/30.20*/29.40/29/28- in play
- Bulls weak under 33.05. Another week of failing to claim 32.60 on the daily. Bulls must hold 31 to keep the upside in play. Reclaiming 32.60 on the daily/weekly remains key to targeting 35/35.70.
Gold #GC:
- If 2665/2657 holds and 2679 & 2688 are reclaimed, targets: (2696*)/2703/2717*/(2733*)/38*/50*/68*+ in play
- If 2657 fails: 2650/46*/40/(27*/10*)/01/(2583*/72*)- in play
- Bulls weak below 2695. They need at least 2688 on the daily to push confidently higher. A red close under 2656 opens up more chop and downside, likely bringing 2627 & 2610 into play.
Platinum #PL:
- If 1000 holds & 1020.5 & 1025 are reclaimed, targets: 1031/1037/1045*/1050*/1056*+ in play
- If 1000 fails: 994.5/991*/988*/985/980*/974*/961*- in play
- Bulls weak under 1025, need to at least claim 1016. Monthly close didn't clear 1010 but above 990, so 1095/1105 remains possible if 991/980 holds.

Note about levels above ATH
Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.
These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.
In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar :

[Bonus]

Palladium #PA

Recovering from a 6-year low since August. Early play, but long with tight stops could be interesting.
As long as 998 or 985 holds, 1026.5 is in play. If claimed, next targets: 1070/75+.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:
For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.
For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.
For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.
close above: claimed / close below: failed
These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

TradersNvestor's Actionable Insights

Discussion about this post