<![CDATA[TradersNvestor's Actionable Insights]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yJ00!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd98e9641-5fc2-448d-a6be-0e8790e7fecb_399x399.pngTradersNvestor's Actionable Insightshttps://newsletter.markettradingalerts.comSubstackFri, 17 Apr 2026 12:35:17 GMT<![CDATA[Mastering the Trend]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/mastering-the-trendhttps://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/mastering-the-trendSun, 06 Apr 2025 18:08:47 GMT

Due to other commitments, I won't be posting regular weekly chart readings and levels. Instead, I'm sharing an article on mastering trends. I hope you find it helpful.

Quick note: The downtrend remains until last week’s highs are claimed. Key support levels for #ES: 5050/5000/4960 and #NQ: 17385/17350/17110.

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Before we dive into mastering trends, let’s talk about a real-world example of how bias, execution, and level awareness play a role in catching (or missing) a trend. Yesterday’s trade offered a perfect case study—where a long setup worked initially but failed to hold, and a short opportunity was missed. If you haven’t read the full review yet, check it out here.

How to Spot When Price is About to Trend

You’ve probably asked yourself, "How do I know when the market is about to explode into a trend?" It’s the million-dollar question, and while there’s no crystal ball, there are some signs you can use to anticipate a trending move. Here’s how to get ahead of the curve:

1. Watch for Consolidation Near Key Levels

Before a big trend, price often spends time "building energy." If you see the market hugging a major support or resistance level, especially with tight ranges and smaller candles, pay attention. Consolidation near these zones often signals that a breakout (or breakdown) is brewing.

  • Action Tip: Mark these levels and wait for a decisive 15-minute or hourly candle close above or below to confirm direction.

2. Quick Key Level Claims or Fails

One of the strongest signs that price is about to trend is when it claims or fails key levels decisively. If a 15-minute or hourly candle closes firmly above resistance or below support without hesitation, it signals strength and a likely continuation in that direction.

  • Action Tip: If price closes above resistance with a strong body, look for continuation long entries and if price closes below support, consider short entries on lower timeframe.

3. Strong Candle Closes Lead the Way

When price starts closing decisively above resistance or below support, it’s a sign the market has picked a direction. Look for candles with solid bodies and minimal wicks against the move—they’re like footprints of big money making its move.

  • Action Tip: Use 15-minute or hourly candle closes to confirm claims (longs) or failures (shorts) at your key levels. Avoid jumping in on weak, indecisive candles.

4. Volume May Be Invisible, but Momentum Isn’t

You don’t need to check volume indicators to feel the market’s energy. Strong momentum shows up in fast-moving candles, minimal pullbacks, and clean pushes through levels. If the price is slicing through your first level and heading straight for the next one, it’s a sign the trend could have legs.

  • Action Tip: Stick to your predefined levels and let price action guide you. Don’t chase moves—wait for pullbacks to key levels or decisive candle closes to confirm your entry.

5. Pullbacks Stay Shallow

In trending markets, pullbacks don’t dig deep. Instead, they often pause at the first support (in an uptrend) or resistance (in a downtrend) level. If the price bounces quickly and decisively, it’s a green flag for the trend continuing.

  • Action Tip: Use shallow pullbacks as opportunities to enter or add to a position, but only after confirmation with a close above or below your level.

6. Rejection of Deeper Levels Confirms Strength

If the price briefly tests a second support or resistance level but rejects it immediately (think of a quick jab and rebound or reject), it often signals the trend isn’t over yet. These quick rejections/recoveries can help you anticipate the next big move.

  • Action Tip: On 15-minute charts, watch for quick recoveries/rejections from second support/resistance levels. Enter or add only after a clean claim or failure of the level.

7. Strong Follow-Through After Breakouts or Breakdowns

The best trends often follow clean breakouts or breakdowns that don’t look back. If the price breaks or fails a key level and follows through with multiple strong candles, chances are it’s headed for the next marked level.

  • Action Tip: Enter after the breakout or breakdown is confirmed and keep your initial stop-loss tight (based on your points-based rules). Let the market do the work.

8. No Signs of Reversal

A common mistake traders make (I made one yesterday) is fighting the trend when there’s no real sign of exhaustion. A strong trend resists reversal attempts, even at major levels. If price keeps making higher highs/lows (for an uptrend) or lower highs/lows (for a downtrend), without any clear rejection wicks/tails, or failed supports or claiming resistance, chances are the trend is intact.

  • Action Tips: Don’t counter-trade unless you see a clear failure pattern (e.g., failed breakout/breakdown, large rejection wick/tails etc.)

    • If key resistance or support is hit and price barely reacts, it's a sign of trend strength—stay with the dominant direction.

    • Trailing stops instead of profit-taking too early helps maximize gains in strong trends.

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Game Plan for Riding the Momentum

1. Let Your Winners Run: Staying in the Trend

  • Set Defined Targets but Stay Flexible: Stick to a level-to-level approach for the first two targets. For the third target, if a strong and fast-moving trend is evident, consider being flexible with exiting the trade. Allow the position to run longer while maintaining your trailing stop-loss method.

  • Candle Closes Define Claims or Fails: Use 15-minute or hourly candle closes to confirm whether a key level is claimed (close above for longs) or failed (close below for shorts). This keeps decisions aligned with objective criteria.

  • Adjust Stop-Loss Strategically: For intraday trades, once the first target is hit, move your SL to breakeven. When the second target is hit, adjust the SL to below the first target (or above for shorts) by 20-25 points for #NQ and 3-5 points for #ES. For swing trades, use 30-35 points for #NQ and 10-15 points for #ES.

2. Adding to a Winning Position: Building Smartly

  • Wait for Clear Claims of Key Levels: Add to a position only after a candle close confirms that the next level has been claimed or failed. This minimizes the risk of adding during indecision.

  • Reassess Risk for Each Addition: Each new position should have its own stop-loss based on your points-based SL rules for intraday or swing trades. Maintain a balanced risk/reward profile at all times.

  • Scale Gradually: Add incrementally as levels are claimed. Avoid committing the full additional size immediately to control risk.

3. Re-Entering After an Exit: Seizing Second Chances

  • Use Failed Breakouts or Breakdowns as Opportunities: When a breakout or breakdown fails, wait for a new candle close to reclaim or fail the level. Re-enter with an SL below the low (or above the high) of the candle that confirmed the level claim.

  • Stay Strict with SL Rules: For re-entries, follow the same points-based SL adjustments as outlined for intraday or swing trades.

4. Handling Fast-Moving Trends: Staying Engaged

  • Stick to Key Levels Even in Rapid Moves: In fast-moving trends where price doesn’t bounce for re-entries, focus on the next pre-marked key level. Use a candle close below (or above for shorts) to determine new entries.

  • Trail Aggressively in "Falling Knife" Scenarios: If price moves rapidly with every 15-minute candle, tighten your trailing SL to stay in the trade while protecting profits. As an example, for #NQ, this could mean trailing by 30-35 points intraday or 35-50 points for swings (in high volatility scenarios)

  • Stay Flexible but Disciplined: Avoid chasing price. Instead, rely on the predefined structure of key levels. If a re-entry opportunity doesn’t present itself cleanly, wait for the next level to act. Do not enter if the risk-to-reward ratio is less than 1:2.

5. Sticking to Level-to-Level Trading: Staying Grounded

  • Respect Your Pre-Marked Levels: Follow the plan for claiming or failing levels, using candle closes as the decision-making tool.

  • Exit Gradually: Close partial positions at each pre-defined level to lock in profits while allowing the remaining position to ride the trend.

  • Document and Refine: Maintain a trading journal to evaluate decisions about re-entries and adding to runners. Use these insights to improve future strategies.

Understanding the "Hold Forever" Temptation

Ever find yourself thinking, "Forget my plan, I’ll just ride this wave forever!" when the market's flying in one direction? You’re not alone. Strong trends can tempt anyone into ditching their disciplined approach for a "hold forever" — whether long in a strong uptrend or short in a sharp downtrend. The fear of missing out on an even bigger move can cloud judgment and lead to holding trades beyond logical exit points. However, disciplined level-to-level trading remains a more sustainable and actionable strategy for capturing profits.

Here’s why sticking to your structured trading plan beats the FOMO every time:

  • Emotions Don’t Pay the Bills: The "buy and hold" temptation often comes from fear of missing out rather than solid reasoning. Riding the wave blindly can lead to holding through pullbacks or getting stuck in reversals.

  • Key Levels Are Your GPS: Without clear levels guiding your entries and exits, you’re flying blind. A level-to-level approach ensures every move is backed by logic, not guesswork.

  • Flexibility Wins Over Fixation: Markets shift. What seems like a strong trend now can fade in a flash. With a plan, you can adjust, take profits, or re-enter strategically without panic.

So, while it’s fun to dream about catching the entire move, disciplined trading keeps you in the game longer—and that’s where the real wins are.

Every trend tells a story. The key is to read it objectively, without bias. Many traders hesitate to flip bias when a level fails—something I experienced firsthand in this Friday, Feb 21st, 2025 session. Price never reclaimed 22050, yet I hesitated to take the short. Recognizing these hesitations in real time is critical for mastering trends.

If you’re struggling with hesitation or missed trend trades, reviewing past mistakes like this trade review can be a helpful in refining execution.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Actionable Insights! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 3/31- 4/04]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-331-404https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-331-404Sun, 30 Mar 2025 19:40:40 GMT

Due to limited time during the week, I may not post daily levels consistently, but I'll try when possible.

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

How’s last week?

  • Last Sunday/Monday’s gap-up gave bulls a shot at my upside targets, even pushing into 2nd bear control levels—but they fell short of the 3rd. The rally fizzled, and bears took over.

  • Gold and Silver kept shining, with Platinum and Palladium showing some strength too.

  • Crude oil respected levels well—hope you caught the moves!

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (3/31 – 4/04)

  • Bears are still in control—that’s why I keep laying out how they’ll lose control step by step. Hope you’ve been following along!

  • I’ve also said many times: rallies happen in downtrends. The key is to take quick profits on long trades and not overstay your welcome. :)

  • Next week brings the usual economic reports starting Tuesday, but the real action is likely Friday with NFP and Powell speaking—plus Monday’s End-of-Month candle. Expect volatility!

  • Friday’s drop should ideally test key supports:

    • #ES: 5581/5535

    • #NQ: 19290/250/210

    • #RTY: 2016/2006/2001

    • #YM: 41640/590/450

    • If all hit support at the same time, expect a bounce.

  • If we gap down below these levels, this setup is invalid.

  • If we gap up, watch 1st and 2nd resistance levels—these will decide if there’s an End-of-Month relief bounce.

  • Quick take: Thursday’s high is key resistance. Bulls need to clear that, then Monday’s high to gain confidence—otherwise, bears still own the script.

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES Bullish above 5665, Bearish below 5655

  • Bears control < 5855

  • Bears keep momentum < 5750

  • Very short term: Bearish < 5775

#NQ Bullish above 19660, Bearish below 19635

  • Bears control < 20605

  • Bears keep momentum < 20050

  • Very short term: Bearish < 20195

#RTY Bullish above 2045, Bearish below 2040

  • Bears control < 2170

  • Bears keep momentum < 2090

  • Very short term: Bearish < 2130

  • Bears must defend 2090 in retracement; if claimed on daily, 2072/2028 in play—if claimed on daily, new upside leg

  • As long as bears hold 2090, 2001/1983, 1960- in play

#YM Bullish above 41925, Bearish below 41925

  • Bears control < 43200

  • Bears keep momentum < 42730

  • Very short term: Bearish < 42945

  • Bears must defend 42730 in any retracement; if claimed on daily, 42945/43095 in play—if claimed on daily, new upside leg

  • As long as bears hold 42730, 41450/905/800, 40320- in play

#SI Bullish above 34.70, Bearish below 34.64

  • Very short term: Bearish < 35.33 & Bullish > 34.20/34.05

  • If 34.80/34.70 holds/reclaimed → 34.95, 35*, 35.32/35.35*, 35.45*, 35.57, 35.70*, 36*, 36.65*, 37*+

  • If 34.64 fails → 34.65, 34.40*, 34.27, 34.20**, 34.05**, 33.86, 33.57*, 33.37*-

  • Bulls lose control step by step: 34.12 → 34 → 33.37 → 32.45 → 32.21*

#GC Bullish above 3102, Bearish below 3091

  • Very short term: Bearish < 3123 & Bullish > 3091

  • If 3102 holds/reclaimed → 3123*/3130*, 3142, 3154*, 3167*, 3178*, 3225*+

  • If 3091 fails → 3080*, 3072*, 3066, 3058*, 3052**, 3041, 3033, 3026**-

  • Bulls lose control step by step: 3052 → 3026 → 3008* → 2988

#PL Bullish above 994, Bearish below 994

  • Very short term: Bearish < 1008 & Bullish > 994

  • If 994 holds/reclaims → 1001*, 1005/1009*, 1014*/1020*, 1032/37, 1049*+

  • If 994 fails → 988*, 981*, 978*/974, 967*, 960*, 956, 950/947*-

  • Bears lose control step by step: 995 → 1014* → 1032*

#PA Bullish above 969, Bearish below 956

  • Bulls weak < 993

  • Bears lose control step by step: 974 → 993* → 1020*

  • If 969 holds → 985*, 993*/996*, 1008, 1014/1020*, 1026*, 1040*, 1067*+

  • If 969 fails → 964*, 956/953*, 946*, 941, 934*, 925/922*, 917, 906-

  • Based on Feb close, if 900 fails to hold, fast move to test 825/813- likely

#CL Bullish above 69.30, Bearish below 68.80

  • Bears control < 74.75

  • Bears keep momentum < 71.25

  • Very short term: Bearish < 70, Bullish > 68.30

  • Bears lose control step by step: 68.58 → 70.30 → 71.25 → 73.20* → 74.75

  • If 68.80 holds → 69, 69.30/69.45*, 70**, 70.30, 70.60, 70.90, 71.25+

  • If 68.80 fails → 68.65, 68.40*/68.30**, 68*, 67.65*, 66.60*, 66.35*, 66.13, 65.92*-

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Key Levels Recap

  • Last week, bulls needed 5791 to reach 5845/54.

  • Monday reclaimed 5791 but topped out at 5837.25, missing 5845.

  • Wednesday lost 5791, and bears controlled the rest of the week.

Current Outlook

  • Bullish above 5665, Bearish below 5655

  • Bears control < 5855

  • Bears keep momentum < 5750

  • Very short term: Bearish < 5775

  • Bears must defend 5750; if reclaimed on daily, 5830/5855 in play → possible upside leg

  • If bears hold 5775, targets: 5538/5500, 5405-

  • Bears lose control step by step:
    5665 → 5780 → 5830 → 5885 → 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069

Ideal Bullish Scenario

  • Bulls hold 5581/57 as support, reclaim 5665 → targets: 5712, 5725*, 5740/48*, 5757, 5772*+

Ideal Bearish Scenario

  • Bears hold 5650/5665 or below → targets: 5595, 5557*, 5535*, 5500, 5403*-

Big Picture

  • If 5665 reclaimed: 5712/25*, 5748*, 5780*, 5807*, 5845*, 5869*, 5885*+ in play

  • Since 5651 failed on daily: 5595*, 5557, 5538*/34*- in play

  • If 5538 fails on daily: 5500*, 5485/64*, 5403*/5393*- in play

  • If 5393 fails on daily: 5345*/30*, 5300*, 5202*- likely

Support Levels

  • Intra-day: 5595*, 5581*, 5557*, 5538/34*, 5525, 5514*

  • Daily: 5538*/34*, 5500*/5485*, 5448*

  • Weekly: 5403/5394*, 5330*/5300*, 5215/5200*

  • Monthly: 5500, 5300*, 5050*

  • Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day: 5610, 5625*, 5635*, 5650, 5665*/70, 5712*, 5735*/45*

  • Daily: 5742/50*, 5780*, 5830*, 5845*/55*, 5870*/85*

  • Weekly: 5740, 5773*, 5967*, 6000*/6016*

  • Monthly: 5772*, 5970*, 6065*, 6165*

  • Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 5405/5246 holds, 6515/7300+ is in play.

🐻 Bearish: As long bears hold 6051, 5740/5405/5330- in play

#NQ:

Key Levels Recap

  • Last week, bulls reclaimed 20290 but lost it on Wednesday, and bears controlled the rest of the week.

Current Outlook

  • Bullish above 19660, Bearish below 19635

  • Bears control < 20605

  • Bears keep momentum < 20065

  • Very short term: Bearish < 20195

  • Bears must defend 20065; if reclaimed on daily, 20195/20605 in play → possible upside leg

  • If 20050 holds, targets: 19290/250, 18400-

  • Multi-week downtrend remains until 21410/460 is reclaimed on daily.

    • Since February, I noted that losing 20940 would start a multi-week downtrend.

    • February 27 confirmed this as 20940 failed, and bears have controlled the market for four weeks.

  • Bears lose control step by step when green day closes above:
    20090 → 20200 → 20605 → 20735 → 21120 → 21250 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815

Ideal Bullish Scenario

  • Bulls hold 19290/250, reclaim 19660 → targets: 19865, 19995, 20065*, 20200*, 20320*, 20485*+

Ideal Bearish Scenario

  • Bears hold 19635/19660 or below → targets: 19295*, 19170/130*, 18970, 18830*, 18400*-

Big Picture

  • If 19660 reclaimed: 19865, 19995, 20065*, 20200*, 20320*, 20485*, 20540, 20605*+

  • Since 19600 failed on daily: Next downside targets: 19295, 19170*/130*, 18400*

  • If 19295 fails on daily: 19170*, 18970, 18835*, 18725, 18590*- in play

  • If 19170 fails: Expect a faster drop to 18590*, 18385*

Support Levels

  • Intra-day: 19290*/250*, 19170/130*, 19140, 19040, 18930*, 18860*/830*, 18730, 18685*, 18590*

  • Daily: 19295*, 19130*, 18835*, 18725, 18590*/550*

  • Weekly: 19170*, 18380*/340*, 17875*

  • Monthly: 18590*, 18435*/335*, 18165*

  • Yearly: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day: 19460/495, 19600/635*, 19660*, 19865*, 19985*, 20065*, 20160*, 20205*

  • Daily: 20000/065*, 20200*, 20540/605*, 20735*, 20155*/215*, 20290*, 20605/650*, 20735*, 21005*, 21120*

  • Weekly: 20200*, 20540*, 21120*

  • Monthly: 20200*, 21005*, 21460*/570*

  • Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

🐂 Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

🐻 Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 20070/040, 19500*, 18840*/400*- in play.

[BONUS]

The following interpretations were generated by ChatGPT using my method and the chart levels above. Use your judgment to make your own decisions.

Not financial advice.

#ES

  • Bullish Above 5665: Candle close above 5665 signals bullish strength. A long trade here targets 5712 initially, followed by 5725, 5748, 5757, and higher levels if momentum sustains.

  • Bearish Below 5655: Candle close below 5655 confirms bearish momentum. A short trade here targets 5595, 5557, 5538, and lower levels depending on continuation.

  • Bears Control < 5855: Broader bearish control persists until bulls reclaim 5855 on a daily close.

  • Bears Keep Momentum < 5750: Price must break and close above 5750 (daily) to weaken bearish momentum.

  • Very Short Term Bearish < 5775: Bears maintain short-term control below 5775.

  • Bulls Must Claim 5750: If bulls reclaim 5750 (daily), upside targets include 5780, 5830, 5855, and potentially higher levels.

Trade Scenarios:

Long Scenarios:

  1. Above 5665: Entry on a 15m/1hr close above 5665. Targets:

    • First: 5712 → 5725.

    • Next: 5748 → 5757 → 5780.

  2. Above 5750 (Daily): If bulls reclaim 5750, upside targets expand to 5830, 5855, and potentially 5885+.

Short Scenarios:

  1. Below 5655: Entry on a 15m/1hr close below 5655. Targets:

    • First: 5595 → 5557.

    • Next: 5538 → 5500 → 5403.

  2. Below 5538 (Daily): A daily close below 5538 signals broader bearish control. Targets expand to 5500 → 5485 → 5403 → 5393.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance Checkpoints:

    • Bulls regain control step-by-step: 5665 → 5780 → 5830 → 5885 → 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069.

    • Watch for rejection or consolidation at these levels for potential short setups.

  • Support Checkpoints:

    • Bears test bulls' resolve at critical levels: 5595 → 5538 → 5500 → 5403.

    • Fail below these levels confirm bearish continuation.

#NQ

  • Bullish Above 19660: Candle close above 19660 indicates bullish strength. If reclaimed: Targets: 19865, 19995, 20065, 20200, 20320, and progressively higher levels like 20485 and 20540.

  • Bearish Below 19635: Candle close below 19635 confirms bearish strength. If broken: Targets: 19295, 19170, 18970, 18830, and deeper levels like 18400 if bears maintain control.

  • Very Short Term Bearish < 20195: Bears hold short-term control below 20195. If this level remains intact: Downside Targets: 19295, 19170, and 18400. Bulls above 19660 could reclaim momentum for rebounds targeting 19865, 19995, and 20065.

  • Bulls Must Claim 20065: A daily close above 20065 signals upside potential:

    Targets: 20195, 20605, and progressively higher levels like 20735 and 21120 if bulls gain strength.

  • Bears Keep Momentum < 20065: Price below 20065 signals bearish dominance:

    Bulls must reclaim 20065 (daily) to weaken bearish momentum and open upside targets.

Trade Scenarios:

Long Scenarios:

  1. Above 19660: Entry on a 15m/1hr close above 19660. Targets:

    • First: 19865 → 19995.

    • Next: 20065 → 20200 → 20320.

  2. Above 20065 (Daily): If bulls reclaim 20065, upside targets expand to 20195, 20605, and potentially higher levels.

Short Scenarios:

  1. Below 19635: Entry on a 15m/1hr close below 19635. Targets:

    • First: 19295 → 19170.

    • Next: 18970 → 18830 → 18400.

  2. Below 19295 (Daily): A daily close below 19295 signals broader bearish control. Targets expand to 19170, 18970, and potentially 18385.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance Checkpoints:

    • Bulls regain control step-by-step: 19660 → 20065 → 20195 → 20605 → 20735 → 21120 → 21250 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815.

    • Watch for rejection or consolidation at these levels to confirm bearish setups.

  • Support Checkpoints:

    • Bears test bulls' resolve at critical levels: 19295 → 19170 → 18970 → 18400.

    • Fail below these levels confirm bearish continuation.

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts / Breakdowns:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout/breakdown trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short/long if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout/breakdown levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout/breakdown, often you get a better long/short entry at the next support/resistance level when price reverses upward/downward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 3/24- 3/28]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-324-328https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-324-328Sun, 23 Mar 2025 18:27:51 GMT

Chart levels now refer to the June 2025 contract.

Due to limited time during the week, I may not post daily levels consistently, but I'll try when possible.

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

How’s last week?

  • Got caught up with other commitments last week and totally overlooked the contract rollover—ended up writing the entire newsletter based on March contracts for #ES and #NQ.

  • The rollover to June started Monday, but March contracts were still in play until Friday.

  • Called for a relief rally last week, and the market delivered—right on cue!

  • When prices stay below Bulls Weak < levels, rallies keep getting sold off.

  • But when support holds, we get more sideways chop. #ES and #NQ mostly stayed range-bound last week.

  • What do you think of my take on metals and crude oil?

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (3/24 – 3/28)

  • Next week is packed with usual economic reports—Thursday’s GDP and unemployment data could bring some extra volatility.

  • Bulls are still weak and won’t be in the clear until they reclaim key levels outlined in How Bears Lose Control.

  • Bulls still got a lot of work to do—first reclaim last Wednesday’s high, then last week’s high on the daily and weekly.

  • If they can’t, bears stay in control—especially if last Monday’s low fails on the daily, opening the door for deeper downside.

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES Bullish above 5692/84, Bearish below 5660

  • Bulls weak < 5885

  • Bears keep momentum < 5791

  • Very short term: Bullish > 5665

  • Bulls must defend 5651/5628 in deeper pullback; failure on daily likely starts new downtrend leg

#NQ Bullish above 19835/800, Bearish below 19660

  • Bulls weak < 21120

  • Bears keep momentum < 20290

  • Very short term: Bullish > 19680

  • Bulls must defend 19660/19600 in deeper pullback; failure on daily likely starts new downtrend leg

#RTY Bullish above 2068, Bearish below 2055

  • Bulls weak < 2290

  • Bears keep momentum < 2220

  • Very short term: Bullish > 2055

  • Bulls must defend 2041/2038 in deeper pullback; failure on daily likely starts new downtrend leg

#YM Bullish above 42170, Bearish below 41820

  • Bulls weak < 44120

  • Bulls keep momentum > 42810

  • Very short term: Bullish > 41820

  • Bulls must defend 41585/41450 in deeper pullback; failure on daily likely starts new downtrend leg

#SI Bullish above 33.37, Bearish below 33.16

  • Very short term: Bearish < 34.14/34.65 & Bullish > 33.37/32.45

  • If 33.37 holds/reclaimed: 33.645, 33.84, 34.14*, 34.42*, 34.65*, 34.80, 35*, 35.18*, 35.45+

  • If 33.37 fails: 33.16*, 33*, 32.85*, 32.45*/35*, 32.27*, 32.15**, 32*-

  • Bears lose control step by step: 34.14 → 34.65 → 35*

  • Bulls lose control step by step: 33.37 → 32.45 → 32.21*

#GC Bullish above 3020, Bearish below 3009

  • Very short term: Bearish < 3058 & Bullish > 2995

  • If 3020 holds/reclaimed: 3031, 3044*, 3054*/58*, 3065*, 3080*/90*, 3115*+

  • If 3009 fails: 3004*/3002, 2995*, 2989**, 2974*, 2950*, 2943*, 2920*, 2911*, 2893*-

  • Bears lose control step by step: 3031 → 3044 → 3058*

  • Bulls lose control step by step: 3031 → 2988 → 2942*

#PL Bullish above 977, Bearish below 964

  • Very short term: Bearish < 1014 & Bullish > 964

  • If 977 holds/reclaims: 991*/995*, 1000*, 1005*, 1014*/1020*, 1032/37, 1049*+

  • If 969/964 fails: 960*, 956, 950/947*, 938, 925*-

  • Bears lose control step by step: 995 → 1014* → 1032*

#PA Bullish above 954, Bearish below 946

  • Bulls weak < 993

  • Bears lose control step by step: 974 → 993* → 1020*

  • If 954 holds: 965, 970/974*, 986*, 993*/996*, 1008, 1014/1020*, 1026*, 1040*+

  • If 954 fails: 946*, 941, 934*, 925/922*, 917, 906-

  • Based on Feb close, if 900 fails to hold, fast move to test 825/813- likely

#CL Bullish above 67.70, Bearish below 67.65

  • Bears control < 74.75

  • Bears keep momentum < 71.25

  • Very short term: Bullish > 67

  • Bears lose control step by step: 68.58 → 70.30 → 71.25 → 73.20* → 74.75

  • If 67.70 holds: 68.45/68.58, 69.80, 70.30, 70.60, 70.90, 71.25+

  • If 67.65 fails: 67*/66.95*, 66.60*, 66.35*, 66.13, 65.92*, 65.53*, 65.22*, 65*-

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Key Levels Recap

  • Sunday/Monday contract rollover opened with a gap up. Monday’s low held Friday’s high, setting the bull/bear line for the week.

  • Post-FOMC, price surged to 5772 but failed to claim it. That remains the key level for bulls to break for further upside.

Current Outlook

  • Bullish above 5692/84, Bearish below 5660

  • Bulls weak < 5885

  • Bears keep momentum < 5791

  • Very short term: Bullish > 5665

  • Bulls must defend 5651/5628 on deeper pullbacks; failure on the daily could start a new downtrend leg.

  • Bears control until 6016 is claimed on the daily. In the very short term, if 5665/50 holds, bulls likely to backtest 5757, 5772, 5791, 5845/54, 5870+

  • If 5791 is claimed on the daily, bears start losing short-term momentum.

  • FOMC squeeze (Wednesday) almost hit 5772 (high: 5770.5) but failed to claim.

  • Thursday/Friday: Moved down to retest 5651 (Monday’s low).

  • Friday bounce off 5651 led to a green close, signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, bulls still need to clear key levels for bears to retreat.

  • Currently trading below key monthly supports (5815/5742).

  • Bears lose control step-by-step: 5772 → 5791 → 5885 → 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069

Ideal Bullish Scenario

  • Bulls hold 5698/92 as support and reclaim 5724/5732 quickly, targeting 5757, 5772/77, 5791+

Ideal Bearish Scenario

  • Bears hold 5724/5732 or lower and claim 5692, then break 5665 (hourly/4H close below) to target 5652, 5637, 5628, 5611, 5595, 5557, 5535-

Big Picture

  • If 5772 reclaimed: Targets 5791, 5807, 5845, 5869, 5885+

  • If 5651 fails on daily: Targets 5628, 5595, 5557, 5538/34-

  • If 5538 fails on daily: Targets 5500, 5485/64, 5403/5393-

  • If 5393 fails on daily: Targets 5345/30, 5300, 5202-

Support Levels

  • Intra-day: 5697/92, 5684, 5678, 5670, 5665/62, 5657, 5651, 5637

  • Daily: 5670/5651, 5628, 5538, 5500/5485, 5448

  • Weekly: 5403/5394, 5330/5300, 5215/5200

  • Monthly: 5500, 5300, 5050

  • Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day: 5732, 5740, 5754/58, 5772, 5809, 5824

  • Daily: 5732, 5758/72, 5791, 5845, 5870/85

  • Weekly: 5772, 5967, 6000/6016

  • Monthly: 5772, 5970, 6065, 6165

  • Yearly: 6165/6460, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View:

🐂 Bullish: As long 5405/5246 holds, 6515/7300+ is in play.

🐻 Bearish: As long bears hold 6051, 5740/5405/5330- in play

#NQ:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Last week, bulls needed 19600/475 to hold for 20150/205, 20290 targets.

  • Monday's squeeze hit 20167 but rejected 20150.

  • Tuesday's low tested and held 19600 (19604.75).

  • Wednesday's high retested 20150 (20143 high).

  • Friday's low retested 19600 (19602.25 low).

  • This established a key range: 19600 - 20150.

Current Outlook:

  • Bullish above: 19835/800

  • Bearish below: 19660

  • Bulls weak below: 21120

  • Bears keep momentum below: 20290

  • Very short term: Bullish above 19680

  • Bulls must defend: 19660/19600 on pullbacks; failure on daily starts new downtrend.

  • Multi-week downtrend likely continues unless 21410/460 is reclaimed on daily.

  • Key resistance for bears to hold: 20290—until bulls reclaim this, 18840/18380 remains possible.

  • Based on Friday's close: As long as 19895/800 holds, expect 20050/20155, 20210*, 20290*+.

  • Bears lose control step by step with daily green closes above:

    • 20155 → 20290 → 20735 → 21120 → 21250 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 19895/800 and quickly reclaim 20060 and 20155 to push toward 20290, 20325, 20410, 20515*, 20735*+.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 20060/20155 or below, then claim 19800 first, then 19680 (hourly/4hr red close) to target 19600/475, 19395/295, 18970, 18830*-.

Big Picture:

  • If 20155 reclaimed (daily): 20290*, 20325, 20515*, 20650*, 20735*, 21120*+ in play.

  • If 19600 fails (daily): Next down leg toward 19295, 19170/130, 18400* possible**.

  • If 19295 fails (daily): 19170*, 18970, 18835*, 18725, 18590*- in play.

  • If 19170 fails: Expect a sharper move toward 18590, 18385**.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 19930, 19895*, 19855*, 19800*, 19710*, 19680/660*, 19600*, 19545, 19440*, 19390*, 19340*

  • Daily: 19600*, 19295*, 19130*, 18835*, 18725, 18590*/550*

  • Weekly: 19500*, 19170*, 18380*/340*

  • Monthly: 19590*, 18590*, 18335*, 18165*

  • Yearly: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 19985, 20060*, 20110*, 20165*, 20225, 20260/290*, 20325, 20430*, 20515*

  • Daily: 20155*/215*, 20290*, 20605/650*, 20735*, 21005*, 21120*

  • Weekly: 20215/290*, 21120*, 21700*/815*

  • Monthly: 21005*, 21460*/570*, 22245*

  • Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

[BONUS]

The following interpretations were generated by ChatGPT using my method and the chart levels above. Use your judgment to make your own decisions.

Not financial advice.

#ES

🐂 🐻

  • Bullish Above 5692/84: Candle close above 5692 signals bullish strength. A long trade here targets 5724/5732 initially, followed by 5757, 5772, 5791, and higher levels if momentum sustains.

  • Bearish Below 5660: Candle close below 5660 indicates bearish strength. A short trade here targets 5652, 5637, 5628, and potentially lower levels depending on continuation.

  • Very Short Term (Bullish > 5665): Bulls maintain short-term strength as long as price stays above 5665. This level is crucial for immediate bullish activity, and if held, a rebound to 5757, 5772, or higher is likely.

  • Bulls Weak < 5885: Even if bulls reclaim key short-term levels, they remain weak until 5885 is claimed on daily & weekly.

  • Bulls Must Defend 5651/5628: On deeper pullbacks, 5651/5628 are critical daily levels for bulls to hold. A daily close below 5651 confirms bearish dominance, signaling a potential new downtrend with targets like 5595, 5557, and lower.

  • Bears Keep Momentum < 5791: Price must break and close above 5791 (daily) to weaken bearish momentum. Failing to do so keeps bears in control in the short to medium term.

  • Bears Control Until 6016 is Claimed (Daily): Broader bearish control persists until bulls reclaim 6016 on a daily close.

Trade Scenarios:

Long Scenarios:

  1. Above 5692: Entry on a 15m/1hr close above 5692. Targets:

    • First: 5724/5732.

    • Next: 5757 → 5772 → 5791.

  2. Above 5772 (Big Picture): If 5772 is reclaimed, targets include 5791, 5807, and higher levels step-by-step: 5845 → 5869 → 5885+.

Short Scenarios:

  1. Below 5660: Entry on a 15m/1hr close below 5660. Targets:

    • First: 5652 → 5637.

    • Next: 5628 → 5611 → 5595.

  2. Below 5651 (Daily): A daily close below 5651 signals broader bearish control. Targets expand to 5557, 5538, 5500/5485, or lower.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance Checkpoints:

    • Bears lose control levels by level: 5772 → 5791 → 5885 → 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069.

    • Pay attention to rejection or consolidation around these levels for short opportunities.

  • Support Checkpoints:

    • Bears test bulls' resolve at: 5697/92 → 5665/62 → 5651 → 5628.

    • Fails below these levels confirm bearish setups.

#NQ

  • Bullish Above 19835/800: A candle close above this level signals bullish momentum. Long trades here target 20050, 20155, 20210, and 20290 progressively.

  • Bearish Below 19660: A candle close below 19660 confirms bearish momentum. Short trades here target 19600, 19395, 19295, and lower levels if the downtrend continues.

  • Very Short Term (Bullish Above 19680): Bulls maintain short-term momentum if price stays above 19680. This supports a potential rebound to 19835/895, 20050, 20155, 20290 or higher.

  • Bulls Weak Below 21120: Bulls will remain weak in the broader trend unless 21120 is reclaimed.

  • Bulls Must Defend 19660/19600: These levels are critical for pullbacks. Failure to hold 19600 on a daily close starts a new downtrend toward 19395, 19170, or even lower.

  • Bears Keep Momentum Below 20290: Until price closes above 20290 (daily), bears retain the upper hand in the medium term.

  • Multi-Week Downtrend: The broader downtrend persists unless 21410/21460 is reclaimed on a daily close.

Trade Scenarios:

Long Scenarios:

  1. Above 19835/800: Entry on a 15m/1hr close above 19835/800. Targets:

    • First: 20050 → 20155.

    • Next: 20210 → 20290 → 20325+.

  2. Above 20155 (Big Picture): A daily close above 20155 signals step-by-step bullish progress. Targets include 20290, 20515, and higher: 20735 → 21120+.

Short Scenarios:

  1. Below 19660: Entry on a 15m/1hr close below 19660. Targets:

    • First: 19600 → 19395.

    • Next: 19295 → 19170 → 18835.

  2. Below 19600 (Daily): A daily close below 19600 confirms a new downtrend. Targets expand to 19295, 18970, and possibly 18385 or lower.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance Checkpoints:

    • Bears lose control step-by-step: 20155 → 20290 → 20735 → 21120 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815.

    • Rejections near these levels may provide opportunities for short trades.

  • Support Checkpoints:
    Bears test bulls' resolve at key support levels: 19835 → 19680 → 19660 → 19600.

    • Failure at these levels signals bearish continuation.

#CL

  • Key Inflection Zone (67.65–67.70):

    • Above 67.70: Signals bullish potential. I would look for long opportunities if the price holds this level, aiming for targets like 68.58 initially, then progressively higher at 69.80, 70.30, and so on, based on momentum.

    • Below 67.65: Indicates bearish sentiment. Short positions could be considered with targets in the sequence you've outlined, starting with 67 and moving down through the marked levels (e.g., 66.95, 66.60, etc.).

  • Short-Term Sentiment: Even if the price dips below 67.65, as long as it stays above 67, bulls can maintain very short-term strength. This level becomes a key gauge for intraday rebounds or potential long setups targeting 67.70 and beyond. Caution is warranted near resistance points like 68.58 or 70.30, where bulls might face challenges.

  • A close below 67 shifts the sentiment fully to bearish, opening downside targets step by step: 66.95 → 66.60 → 66.35, etc.

  • Bearish Momentum and Control:

    • Bears maintain momentum below 71.25, so this level is critical for evaluating bullish strength. If the price breaks above 71.25, it signals weakening bearish control, progressing further at levels like 73.20 and 74.75.

    • Until 74.75 is breached, bears maintain broader control, making it a potential area for short setups if price approaches but fails to break.

  • Step-by-Step Bears lose control (68.58 → 70.30 → 71.25 → 73.20 → 74.75):

    • Each of these levels acts as a checkpoint for bulls. A progressive reclaim by bulls indicates growing strength, and I’d consider adding to long positions above each level claimed, targeting the next one.

Strategy Suggestions:

  1. Long Above 67.70: Look for confirmed support with volume. Target levels incrementally: 68.58 → 69.80 → 70.30 → 70.60 → 70.90 → 71.25+.

  2. Short Below 67.65: Watch for failed retests of 67.65 or 67.00. Then aim for lower targets e.g., 66.95 → 66.60 → 66.35, etc.

  3. Observe Key Levels: Pay attention to reactions at 71.25 (momentum threshold) and 74.75 (control threshold). These are critical areas for directional bias.

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts / Breakdowns:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout/breakdown trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short/long if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout/breakdown levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout/breakdown, often you get a better long/short entry at the next support/resistance level when price reverses upward/downward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 3/17- 3/21]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-317-321https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-317-321Sun, 16 Mar 2025 19:31:25 GMT

Making this newsletter shorter — hope you’ll still find it actionable and helpful in your trading!

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

How’s last week?

  • Last week, I said bears were in control, and any bounces were just counter-trend until key resistance was reclaimed.

  • Bulls couldn’t even test the first resistance levels, and bears dominated until Thursday.

  • I didn’t trade but posted daily levels on X 4 out of 5 days—few paid attention. :)

  • On the bright side, last week’s newsletter got more likes than usual—appreciate it!

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (3/17 – 3/21)

  • Markets found short-term support Thursday. Friday's gap up, break above the previous day's high, and solid green close marked the first slight bullish move since early March.

  • This raises hopes for some continuation of a relief rally.

  • Any bounces/rallies—no matter how strong—will still be treated as counter-trend moves until key levels (identified below) are claimed on daily/weekly .

  • The past 3-4 Wednesdays' highs remain critical resistance points bulls must claim for bears to gradually lose control.

  • Will this week's FOMC Rate Decision & Press conference break the cycle of short-lived spikes and dumps, or will recent patterns persist?

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES Bullish above 5580, Bearish below 5538

  • Bulls weak < 5885

  • Bears keep momentum < 5791

#NQ Bullish above 19475, Bearish below 20290

  • Bulls weak < 21120

  • Bears keep momentum < 20290

#RTY Bullish above 2019, Bearish below 2001

  • Bulls weak < 2290

  • Bears keep momentum < 2220

#YM Bullish above 41140, Bearish below 40905

  • Bulls weak < 44120

  • Bulls keep momentum > 42810

#SI Bullish above 33.54, Bearish below 33.16

  • If 33.55 holds/reclaimed, 34, 34.45, 34.80, 35, 35.18, 35.45/35.55, 35.70*+

  • If 33.16 fails, 33, 32.85, 32.45/35, 32.27, 32.15, 32-

#GC Bullish above 2950/42, Bearish below 2923

  • If 2950 holds/reclaimed, 2990, 3000/3005, 3025, 3050, 3080/90, 3115+

  • If 2923 fails, 2900, 2890, 2880, 2872, 2866, 2855-

#PL Bullish above 1002, Bearish below 998

  • Above 998 bulls keep momentum from last week. Still need to claim 1019 on daily

  • If 1008/1002 holds, 1017/1020, 1037, 1049, 1058, 1065*+

  • If 998 fails, 980/977, 970, 964, 960, 956, 950/947, 938, 925-

#PA Bullish above 969, Bearish below 964

  • Bulls weak < 993

  • Bears lose control step by step 993* → 1020*

  • If 969 holds, 989, 993/996, 1008, 1014/1020, 1026, 1040+

  • If 964 fails, 946*, 941, 935, 925/922, 917, 906-

  • Based on Feb close, if 900 fails to hold, fast move to test 825/813- likely

#CL Bullish above 66.80, Bearish below 66.59

  • Bears control < 74.75

  • Bears keep momentum < 71.25

  • Bears lose control step by step 68.58 → 70.30 → 71.25 → 73.20* → 74.75

  • If 66.80 holds, 68.10/68.58, 69.80, 70.30, 70.60, 70.90, 71.25+

  • If 66.59 fails, 66.28, 65.92, 65.53, 65.22, 65, 63.65, 62*, 61.56-

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Current Outlook:

  • Even though bears are still in control until 6016 is claimed on daily, if 5580/57 holds, bulls could back test 5677, 5757, 5772, and 5791+.

  • If 5791 is claimed on daily, bears start losing short-term momentum.

  • Bulls are weak < 5885.

  • Bears maintain momentum < 5791.

  • Friday's EOM squeeze hit key 5647 (5748.75 high) but couldn’t claim it, increasing the likelihood of a back test to 5610/5595/5581 supports unless bulls reclaim 5748 quickly.

  • Currently below 5815/5742, key monthly supports.

  • Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 5677 → 5791 → 5885 → 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069.

Ideal Bullish Scenario

  • Bulls hold 5617/10 as support and quickly reclaim 5648 and 5655, bringing 5677, 5690, 5723, 5757*+ into play.

Ideal Bearish Scenario

  • Bears hold 5638/5655 or below, then claim 5610 first, followed by 5580 and 5557 (hourly/4hr red candle close below), opening up 5511, 5500, 5485/56, 5418/10, 5400/5393- as targets.

Big Picture

  • If 5677 is reclaimed on daily while holding 5562, expect 5690, 5723, 5757, 5772, 5791, 5807, 5844+ to come into play.

  • If 5538 fails to hold on daily, targets include 5500, 5485/64, 5403/5393-.

  • If 5393 fails to hold on daily, look for 5345/30, 5300, 5202- as likely moves.

Support Levels

  • Intra-day: 5617/10*, 5591, 5580*, 5562, 5557*, 5539, 5525, 5511*

  • Daily: 5538, 5500*/5485*, 5448, 5410/03*, 5394

  • Weekly: 5403/5394, 5330/5300, 5215/5200

  • Monthly: 5500, 5300*, 5050

  • Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day: 5638, 5648*/55*, 5675, 5690*, 5720/25, 5731, 5752/57*

  • Daily: 5655/77*, 5757/72, 5791*, 5845, 5870/85*

  • Weekly: 5772*, 5967, 6000/6016*

  • Monthly: 5772*, 5970*, 6065*, 6165

  • Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#NQ:

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls are weak < 21120.

  • Bears keep momentum < 20290.

  • Multi-week downtrend likely to continue unless 21410/21460 is claimed on daily.

  • Until 20290 is claimed by bulls on daily, the test of 18840/18380- remains a possibility.

  • This doesn’t mean there won’t be rallies within the downtrend.

  • Based on Friday's close, as long as 19600/475 holds and 19705 & 19790 are claimed, back test targets include 20150/205, 20290*+.

  • If 19800 is claimed on daily, 20150/205 and 20290* are the next targets.

  • If 20290 is claimed, look for 20605/650, 20735, and 21120+ as potential next moves.

  • If 19295 fails on daily, the next down leg starts, bringing 19185, 18970, 18840, and 18720*- into play.

  • If 19170 fails, expect a quicker, deeper move to test 18590* and 18385*.

  • If 18385 fails to hold on daily, the next leg down begins, with 18165, 17855, and 17230 as possible targets.

  • Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 19800 → 20290 → 20735 → 21120 → 21250 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815

Ideal Bullish Scenario

  • Bulls hold 19605/475 as support and quickly reclaim 19705 and 19750, continuing to 19790, 20005, 20150/205, 20290+.

Ideal Bearish Scenario

  • Bears hold 19725/19790 or below, then claim 19610 first, followed by 19475 (hourly/4hr red candle close below), opening up 19395/19295, 18970, 18830- as targets.

Big Picture

  • If 19790 is reclaimed on daily, 20150/205, 20290, 20325, 20515, and 20650*+ are in play.

  • If 19295 fails on daily, expect 19170, 18970, 18835, 18725, and 18590*- as targets.

Support Levels

  • Intra-day: 19630, 19590*, 19475*, 19440, 19390*, 19340, 19295*

  • Daily: 19295*, 19130, 18835*, 18725*, 18590*/550*

  • Weekly: 19500*, 19170, 18380*/340

  • Monthly: 19590*, 18590, 18335*, 18165

  • Yearly: 19650/500, 18590/18400, 17465

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day: 19705/730*, 19790*, 19915, 19970, 20020*, 20055, 20110*, 20165*

  • Daily: 19790*, 20150/215*, 20290*, 20605/650*, 20735*, 21005, 21120*

  • Weekly: 20215/290*, 21120*, 21700/815*

  • Monthly: 21005*, 21460*/570, 22245

  • Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

[BONUS]

The following trade plans were generated by ChatGPT using my method and the chart levels above. Use your judgment to make your own decisions.

Not financial advice.

#ES

🐂 Bullish Control Levels:

  • Above 5677 → Bulls regain control, targeting 5690 → 5723 → 5757 → 5772 → 5791+.

  • Above 5791 → Bulls regain momentum, aiming toward 5807 → 5844+.

  • Above 5885 → Bulls build strength, aiming for 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069.

🐻 Bearish Control Levels:

  • Below 5610/5595 → Bears take control, targeting 5580 → 5557 → 5511 → 5500.

  • Below 5580 → Bearish continuation toward 5485/56 → 5418 → 5400/5393.

  • Below 5393 → Accelerated downside risk toward 5345/30 → 5300 → 5202-.

Long Setup:

Short Setup:

#NQ

🐂 Bullish Control Levels:

  • Above 19790 → Bulls regain control, aiming toward 20150/205 → 20290 → 20325 → 20515 → 20650.

  • Above 20290 → Bulls regain momentum, targeting 20605 → 20735 → 21120.

  • Above 20650 → Strength builds toward 20735 → 21000 → 21120.

🐻 Bearish Control Levels:

  • Below 19600/475 → Bears take control, targeting 19475 → 19390 → 19295 → 18970.

  • Below 19295 → Bearish continuation toward 19185 → 18970 → 18840 → 18720.

  • Below 18840 → Accelerated downside risk toward 18590 → 18385 → 18165 → 17855

Long Setup:

Short Setup:

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts / Breakdowns:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout/breakdown trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short/long if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout/breakdown levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout/breakdown, often you get a better long/short entry at the next support/resistance level when price reverses upward/downward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 3/10- 3/14]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-310-314https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-310-314Sun, 09 Mar 2025 18:03:37 GMT

Making this newsletter shorter — hope you’ll still find it actionable and helpful in your trading!

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

How’s last week?

  • Last week, I wrote that bears still control and had a 5745/25 target for #ES. Not only did it hit, but it also plunged to the next support at 5670 (5673 low) before bouncing on Friday.

  • As mentioned, "If last week's low fails on the daily, bears still run the show, and deeper downside is possible."

  • Last Tuesday's failed low from the week before last led to deeper downside over the next three days.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (3/10 – 3/14)

  • Friday's bounce from key monthly support levels will likely test Thursday's open/high.

  • I'll consider any bounces/rallies, however forceful, as counter-trend moves until key levels identified below are claimed on daily/weekly.

  • Tuesday-Friday will be busy with usual economic reports. Wednesday's CPI is the highlight for volatility.

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES Bullish above 5742/5718, Bearish below 5718

  • Bulls weak < 6016

  • Bears keep momentum < 5998

#NQ Bullish above 20165/19945, Bearish below 19945

  • Bulls weak < 21460

  • Bears keep momentum < 21120

#RTY Bullish above 2075/2057, Bearish below 2057

  • Bulls weak < 2286

  • Bears keep momentum < 2206

#YM Bullish above 42660/530, Bearish below 42530

  • Bulls weak < 44120

  • Bears keep momentum < 43920

#SI Bullish above 32.55, Bearish below 32.39

  • Bulls weak < 33.24/33.45

  • If 32.55 holds/reclaimed, 33.25, 33.45, 34, 34.25, 34.70, 35*+

  • If 32.39 fails, 32.20, 32.05, 31.90, 31.70, 31.55*-

#GC Bullish above 2911, Bearish below 2900

  • Bulls weak < 2936/42

  • If 2900 holds/reclaimed, 2936, 2942, 2968/75, 3000*+

  • If 2900 fails, 2893, 2872, 2866, 2855, 2846-

#PL Bullish above 966, Bearish below 965

  • Bulls weak < 1012

  • Bears lose control step by step 985 → 996 → 979 → 1012*

  • If 966 holds, 985, 992, 996, 979, 1000*, 1012+

  • If 965 fails, 960, 956, 950/947, 938, 925*-

  • Based on Feb close, 910 in play until 1000 claimed

#PA Bullish above 947, Bearish below 943

  • Bulls weak < 993

  • Bears lose control step by step 931 → 946 → 993* → 1020*

  • If 947 holds, 965, 970, 983, 990/996, 1004, 1020*+

  • If 943 fails, 939, 935, 925/922, 917, 906-

  • Based on Feb close, if 900 fails to hold, fast move to test 825/813- likely

#CL Bullish above 66.8, Bearish below 66.34

  • Bears control < 74.75

  • Bears lose control step by step 68.58 → 70.30 → 71.25 → 73.20* → 74.75

  • If 66.8 holds, 68.10/68.58, 69.80, 70.30, 70.60, 70.90, 71.25+

  • If 66.33 fails, 65.60, 65.20, 65.00, 63.65, 61.56, 59.50**-

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Last Monday, bulls had a chance to claim key 6016. They pushed to 6023 Sunday night but gave up the gains at Monday open and bears continued their march. Tuesday failed to hold the previous week's low and, as expected, hit 5725 (5673 low).

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak < 6016

  • Bears keep momentum < 5998

  • Until 6016 is claimed on daily, treat all long trades as counter-trend, even if forceful rallies are seen.

  • If, after claiming 5885 on daily, the next day turns red and closes the red candle near the previous day's open or low, the next leg in the downtrend is likely to continue.

  • If 5885 is claimed on daily, bears start losing short-term momentum.

  • Friday's EOM squeeze hit the first resistance precisely at 5791 but couldn't claim that nor 5775. So, unless bulls claim 5775 & 5791 quickly, it increases the possibility of a back test of 5742/5718 supports.

  • Bulls need to defend 5770/5757 if 5775/91 is claimed quickly to keep momentum to 5813/20/30+.

  • Based on Friday's close, as long as 5718 holds, 5845/55+ back test is in play.

  • Key bullish targets/key resistances for any upside moves if 5791 is claimed: 5845, 5855, 5870, 5885, 5967, 6000, 6016*.

  • 5742/5724 are key monthly supports.

  • Bears lose control: 5885 → 5998 → 6016 → 6025.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 5758/5742/5718 as support and quickly reclaim 5775 and 91 to bring 5813/20, 5845, 5855, 5869, 5885*+ into play.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 5806/5820 or below & claim 5757 first then 5718 (hourly/4hr red candle close below) to bring 5687, 5670, 5640, 5625, 5597, 5500- into play.

Big Picture:

  • If 5791 is reclaimed on daily: 5845/55, 5870/5885, 6000/16, 6025/30*+ into play.

  • If 5718 fails to hold on daily: 5687/70, 5640/25, 5597- into play.

  • If 5597 fails to hold on daily: 5556/40, 5500/5488, 5424*- likely.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 5762, 5757, 5742, 5718, 5686

  • Daily: 5718, 5669, 5625, 5597, 5564

  • Weekly: 5724/5669, 5564, 5410*

  • Monthly: 5742/24, 5626, 5410, 5300*

  • Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 5775/83, 5791, 5806, 5813, 5817*

  • Daily: 5791, 5845/55, 5885, 5967*, 6016

  • Weekly: 5967, 6000, 6040, 6068, 6142*

  • Monthly: 5968/82, 6000, 6068, 6164

  • Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#NQ:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Bulls weren't in control all last week despite attempts to hold key supports. Bulls needed to claim 21410/460 but couldn't even get past 21120. As expected, bears moved the price down deeper and faster.

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak > 21460

  • Bears keep momentum < 21120

  • Based on Friday's close, as long as 19945 holds, 20600/650+ back test is in play.

  • As mentioned since the start of Feb this year, failing to hold 20940 would bring 20010/19900/19500 and likely continue the downtrend for weeks.

  • Bulls need to claim 21460 on daily & weekly to negate that move. Until then, bears are in control.

  • All rallies to be treated as counter-trend in the downtrend.

  • If 20000 fails to hold on daily, 19800/730, 19600/560- in play.

  • If 19560 fails, 19400, 19240, 19830, 18400- in play.

  • If 19945 holds, 20600/650 in play.

  • If 20650 is claimed on daily, 20750, 20940*, 21000 in play.

  • If 20750 is claimed on daily, 21000, 21120*, 21250 in play.

  • Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 20650/750 → 21120* → 21325 → 21460.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 20165/20050/19945 and quickly reclaim 20280 to continue to 20325, 20405, 20480/515, 20615/650+.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 20350/430 or below and claim 20050 first, then 19945 (hourly/4hr red candle close below) to bring 19815, 19765/730, 19650, 19560/500- in play.

Big Picture:

  • If 20650/750 is reclaimed on daily: 21000/120*, 21250/325, 21460+ in play.

  • If 20000 fails on daily: 19800/730, 19600/560, 19500*- in play.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 20165, 20050, 19945, 19875, 19815, 19765

  • Daily: 19945, 19765/730, 19650, 19560/500*

  • Weekly: 20000, 19735, 19500*

  • Monthly: 20010, 19800/595, 18590*

  • Yearly: 19650/500, 18590/18400, 17465

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 20230, 20280, 20355, 20405, 20460/480, 20515*

  • Daily: 20290, 20605/650, 20750, 21005, 21120

  • Weekly: 21005/21120, 21700/815, 22235

  • Monthly: 21270, 21700/815, 22320, 22900*

  • Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

[BONUS]

The following trade plans were generated by ChatGPT using my method and the chart levels above. Use your judgment to make your own decisions.

Not financial advice.

#ES

🐂 Bullish Control Levels:

  • Above 6016 → Bulls take full control, targeting 6068 → 6142+

  • Above 5885 → Bulls start regaining short-term momentum, targeting 5967 → 6000 → 6016

  • Above 5791 → Strength builds toward 5845 → 5855 → 5870 → 5885

🐻 Bearish Control Levels:

  • Below 5998 → Bears maintain momentum, targeting 5967 → 5885

  • Below 5718 → Bearish continuation toward 5687 → 5670 → 5640 → 5625 → 5597

  • Below 5597 → Accelerated downside risk to 5556 → 5500 → 5424 → 5300

Long Setup:

Short Setup:

#NQ

🐂 Bullish Control Levels:

  • Above 21460 → Bulls take control step by step toward 21815+

  • Above 20650 → Bulls regain momentum, targeting 20750 → 20940 → 21000 → 21120

  • Above 21000 → Strength builds toward 21120 → 21250 → 21410

🐻 Bearish Control Levels:

  • Below 20685 → Bears in control, targeting 20480 → 20355 → 20230

  • Below 20000 → Bearish continuation toward 19800 → 19650 → 19500*

  • Below 19500 → Accelerated downside risk to 19240 → 18950 → 18590 → 18400

Long Setup:

Short Setup:

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts / Breakdowns:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout/breakdown trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short/long if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout/breakdown levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout/breakdown, often you get a better long/short entry at the next support/resistance level when price reverses upward/downward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 3/03- 3/07]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-303-307https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-303-307Sun, 02 Mar 2025 18:29:23 GMT

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

How’s last week?

  • Last week, I posted daily that bears might lose control step by step, but for that to happen, bulls had to reclaim key levels one by one. Instead, bears stayed in control all week—most days, price couldn't even reach the first resistance on the hourly/4hr. Bulls got close a few times, but bears shut them down fast.

  • On Friday morning, I noted that #ES and #NQ were bouncing off key weekly supports (5860 & 20505), setting up for a relief rally. That played out after a quick dip below those levels, followed by a strong reclaim (failed breakdown, anyone?).

  • A surprise move: #PA and #PL dropped fast once key supports gave out.

  • #CL hit 68.45 support exactly and bounced.

  • #SI lost its first key support at 32.45, then tested 31.56.

  • #GC made a new ATH on Monday but quickly pulled back to test 2846 support.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (3/03 – 3/07)

  • Mixed market to end the week.

  • #YM closed green after a 4.5% pullback, but needs to reclaim 43,935 on the daily for short-term bullish confirmation.

  • #ES closed red but held monthly support at 5,945. However, the slight red monthly close hints that if support fails, 5,745/25 could be tested.

  • #NQ & #RTY suggest more downside unless bulls quickly reclaim NQ Wednesday’s high and RTY last week’s high—this is their chance, or the chop continues.

  • Next week:

    • Usual economic reports start Monday.

    • Tuesday: Quiet—no major reports.

    • Friday: NFP, Unemployment, and JPowell’s speech—expect volatility.

  • Earnings season rolls on with mega caps like $COST, $AVGO, plus $AZO, $TGT, $MDB, $ASTS, $CRWD, and more.

  • Bottom line: Bulls have work to do—first reclaim Wednesday’s high, then last week’s high on the daily, then weekly. If last week’s low fails on the daily, bears still run the show, and deeper downside is possible.

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES Bullish above 5900, Bearish below 5860

  • Bulls weak < 6068

  • Bears keep momentum < 6016

#NQ Bullish above 20685, Bearish below 20540

  • Bulls weak < 21815

  • Bears keep momentum < 21460

#RTY Bullish above 2148, Bearish below 2136

  • Bulls weak < 2286

  • Bears keep momentum < 2220

#YM Bullish above 43500, Bearish below 43230

  • Bulls weak < 44685

  • Bulls keep momentum > 43500

#SI Bullish above 31.52, Bearish below 31.48

  • Bulls weak < 32.85

  • If 31.52 holds: 31.80, 31.95, 32.09, 32.54+ in play

  • If 32.57 claimed: 32.85, 33.10, 33.35+ in play

  • If 31.48 fails: 31.135, 31, 30.83, 30.775- in play

  • If 30.82 fails: 30.49, 30.36, 30.235, 30.09, 29.80, 29.30- in play

  • In a deeper pullback, bulls must hold/defend or reclaim 30.83 quickly, or 30.09, 29.80, 29.30 likely

  • Bulls lose control on daily 31.52 → 30.83

#GC Bullish above 2855, Bearish below 2847

  • Bulls weak < 2897

  • If 2855 holds: 2877, 2890/96, 2902, 2911, 2931/36+ in play

  • If 2936 claims: 2951/57, 2965, 2975, 3000+ in play

  • If 2847 fails: 2837, 2829/26, 2813, 2803- in play

  • In case of deeper pullback, bulls must defend 2829

  • If 2875 fails: 2870, 2856, 2850/2846, 2837/30, 2825- in play

  • Bulls lose control step by step 2875 → 2837 → 2795

#PL Bullish above 938, Bearish below 937

  • Bulls weak < 1000

  • If 938 holds: 952, 956, 960/62, 966, 978 in play

  • If 978 claimed: 983, 993, 999, 1004, 1012, 1019+ in play

  • If 937 fails: 928, 924, 910/907, 900, 891, 884 in play

  • If 884 fails: 879, 873, 867, 851, 846- in play

  • Bears lose control step by step 996 → 979 → 1000 → 1019

  • Based on monthly close, 910 in play until 1000 is claimed

#PA Bullish above 911, Bearish below 900

  • Bulls weak < 990

  • If 911 holds: 931, 946, 952, 960, 981, 990 in play

  • If 990 claimed: 996, 1003, 1008, 1018/1020+ in play

  • If 900 fails: 896, 890, 864, 837, 825, 813, 809- in play

  • Bears lose control step by step 931 → 946 → 990 → 1020

  • Based on monthly close, if 900 fails to hold, a fast move to test 825/813- is likely

#CL Bullish above 69.35, Bearish below 68.77

  • Bulls weak < 73.20

  • Bears control < 74.75

  • If 69.35/68.77 holds: 70.46, 70.90, 71.26, 72.58, 73.20 in play

  • If 73.20 claimed: 73.70, 74.15, 74.55, 74.75, 75.20+ in play

  • If 68.77 fails: 68.44, 68.19, 68, 67.70, 67.20- in play

  • In case of deeper pullback, bulls must defend 68

  • Bears lose control step by step 71.25 → 73.20 → 74.75

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Feb 21: Failed to hold key 6078/6070 support.

  • Feb 24: Back test of 6070 failed; reversed from 6068 without giving bulls a chance to reclaim.

  • Feb 28: Bears controlled until the afternoon when the next key support failed but was quickly reclaimed.

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak below: 6068

  • Bears keep momentum below: 6016

  • Despite 6068 being unclaimed on the daily, if 5900 holds, bulls have a shot at 5990, 6007, 6016, 6024 in the short term.

  • 6016 reclaim on the daily weakens bears' momentum.

  • Friday’s end-of-month squeeze hit 5965 (high: 5971) but failed to claim it—bulls need a quick reclaim, or a backtest of 5920/5900 is likely.

  • Until 6068 (or at least 6050) is reclaimed on the daily, long plays are just bounces in a downtrend.

  • Key monthly support: 5815/5742

  • Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 6016 → 6030 → 6050 → 6069

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 5954/5920/5900 and reclaim 5965/80, 5990 to bring 6016*, 6024*, 6045/50, 6060/69*+ into play.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 5990/6007 or below and push to claim 5900, then 5860 (hourly/4hr red close) to bring 5845*, 5814*, 5752, 5733*, 5690*, 5675*- into play.

Big Picture:

  • If 6016 reclaimed on daily: 6024/30/60/69*, 6117, 6150, 6248, 6290, 6385+ in play.

  • If 5880 fails on daily: 5814*, 5752*, 5733*/25*, 5691*, 5670*- in play.

  • If 5855 fails on daily: 5745*, 5725*- likely.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 5954*, 5920*, 5900*, 5880*, 5860*

  • Daily: 5880*, 5855/45*, 5815*, 5750*

  • Weekly: 5860*, 5745*, 5670*

  • Monthly: 5860*, 5815/09*, 5742/24*, 5626*

  • Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 5965*, 5980, 5990*, 6007*, 6024*

  • Daily: 5990, 6024*/30*, 6068*

  • Weekly: 6040*, 6068*, 6142*, 6164*

  • Monthly: 6068*, 6164*, 6248/6260*, 6310

  • Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#NQ:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Feb 20: Quick flush below 22040 to 21960, then reclaimed 22050 the same day—made me think bulls still had control.

  • I wrote an article about how my bias kept me from the ideal short when 21960 failed, and bears took over.

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak below: 21815

  • Bears keep momentum below: 21460

  • Based on Thursday’s close, unless 21410/460 is quickly reclaimed on the daily, the multi-week downtrend likely continues.

  • If 20460 fails on daily: 20040, 19860, 19500, 19185 in play.

  • If 20685 holds: 21250, 21375, 21410/460+ in play.

  • If 21460 reclaimed: 21700/21815 next.

  • If 21815 reclaimed: 22135/235, 22320, 22425+ next.

  • Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 21250 → 21410 → 21460 → 21700 → 21815

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 20865/750/685 and quickly reclaim 20940 to push toward 20230/270, 20310/375, 21410/406*+

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 21250/21410 or below and push to claim 20680, then 20540 (hourly/4hr red close) to bring 20360/325*, 20110*/20025*, 19940*- in play.

Big Picture:

  • If 21410/460 reclaimed on daily: 21700/815*, 22135/235*, 22320, 22425+ in play.

  • If 21535 fails on daily: 20360/325*, 20040, 19940*, 19800*, 19635*, 19500*- in play.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 20865*, 20750*, 20685*, 20590*, 20540*

  • Daily: 20540*/475*, 20325*, 20110*/20025*

  • Weekly: 20505*, 20140, 20000*, 19730*/500*

  • Monthly: 20070*/20010*, 19800*/600*, 18590*

  • Yearly: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 20940*, 21060*, 21120*, 21230*, 21310*, 21380*

  • Daily: 21250*, 21410*/460*, 21700/815*

  • Weekly: 21700*/815*, 22235*, 22450*

  • Monthly: 21270*, 21700*/815*, 22320*

  • Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#RTY:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Week of Feb 17: Bulls needed to claim 2307 on the daily or at least on the 4-hour for bullish continuation.

  • The week’s high reached 2303.4, and bears took control, pushing prices down for the last two weeks.

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak below: 2286

  • Bears keep momentum below: 2220

  • Last week formed a lower high and lower low on the weekly.

  • Until bulls reclaim last week's high on the daily and then on the weekly, bears control the market, with 2090/83, 1991* likely in play.

  • Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 2204 → 2220* → 2264 → 2286*

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 2162/54/48 and quickly reclaim 2172 to target 2183/86, 2195, 2206, and 2220*+

  • A close above 2220 on the hourly or 4-hour would reinforce bullish momentum.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 2206/2220 and quickly claim 2148, then 2136 (hourly/4hr red close) to bring 2132, 2106/2100, 2091*, 2075, 2065, 2058*, 1999* in play.

Big Picture:

  • If 2149 holds & 2220 is claimed on the daily: 2248/58*, 2264, 2286*, 2304*+ in play.

  • If 2136 fails on the daily: 2091, 2058, 2040, 1999* in play.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 2154, 2149*, 2136*, 2132*

  • Daily: 2132, 2100*/2091, 2075*/2063*

  • Weekly: 2091/2083*, 2058*, 2037*

  • Monthly: 2068*/2032*, 1999*, 1975*, 1905*

  • Yearly: 2194/2181*, 2058*, 1972*

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 2172*, 2183/86*, 2195, 2200*

  • Daily: 2183/86*, 2206*, 2220*, 2238*

  • Weekly: 2220*, 2264*/2286*, 2290*/2304*

  • Monthly: 2248*/2258*, 2337*, 2445*

  • Yearly: 2290*, 2463, 2615/2756

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 2181/2058 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2315, 2463, 2615/2756+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 2315/2445, targets 2081*, 2058*, 1972, 1916-.

#YM:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Week of Feb 17: Bulls needed to claim 44750 to continue the bullish move toward 44815+.

  • The week's high reached 44760, but bulls failed to claim 44750, allowing bears to take control for the past two weeks.

  • However, Friday’s rebound closed the week in green, signaling potential temporary strength.

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak below: 44685

  • Bulls maintain momentum above: 43500 (continuing Friday's strength)

  • Bears lose control step by step when a green day closes above: 43935 → 44330* → 44685 → 44750*

  • Key weekly support: 43325

  • Key monthly support: 43285

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 43820/650/500 and reclaim 43935* to resume testing 44080, 44330*/385*, 44685, 44750*+

  • A close above 44080 on the hourly and 4-hour confirms bullish intent to target 44330*/385, 44750+

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears defend 43935/44080 and first claim 43500, then 43230 (hourly/4hr red close) to bring 42760*, 42520, 42365, 42120* in play.

Big Picture:

  • If 43530 holds & 43935 is reclaimed on the daily: 44260, 44330*, 44685*+ in play.

  • If 43285/230 fails on the daily: 42810/750*, 42520, 42205*, 42120* in play.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 43820, 43650, 43500, 43230/200, 43170*

  • Daily: 43530*, 43155, 42755*, 42365, 42185*

  • Weekly: 43285*, 42205*, 42090/41960*

  • Monthly: 43285, 42875*, 41970**/41790*

  • Yearly: 40330*/41260, 40100/39335, 37900

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 43935*, 44010, 44080/44100*, 44240, 44330*

  • Daily: 43935*, 44330*, 44685*, 44750*

  • Weekly: 43950*, 44655*, 45050*

  • Monthly: 44450*, 45050*, 45290*, 45900

  • Yearly: 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 41790/40100 holds or is reclaimed, targets 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 44485/45050, targets 41790/40100/37870-.

[BONUS]

The following trade plans were generated by ChatGPT using my method and the chart levels above. Use your judgment to make your own decisions.

Not financial advice.

#ES

Summary Notes:

  • Above 6016 → Bulls gain ground step by step toward 6068+

  • Below 5900 → Bears in full control targeting deeper support zones

  • Key Pivot Zones: 5965, 6016, 6068

Long Setup:

  • Support Hold Long – 5900 Holds

    • Entry: 5900 reclaim with confirmation

    • Stop-Loss: Below 5880

    • Targets: 5920 → 5954 → 5965*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 5900 is a key support; holding it opens the door for a short-term bounce toward resistance levels.

  • Breakout Long – 5965 Reclaim

    • Entry: 5965 reclaim with hourly/4hr close above

    • Stop-Loss: Below 5954

    • Targets: 5980 → 5990* → 6007*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 5965 was the prior high; reclaiming it suggests bulls gaining control and pushing toward key resistance levels.

  • Breakout Long – 6016 Daily Close

    • Entry: 6016 reclaim on the daily close

    • Stop-Loss: Below 6007

    • Targets: 6024* → 6045 → 6060/69*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 6016 is a major pivot; clearing it weakens bear momentum and aligns with a step-by-step bullish reversal structure.

  • Reclaim & Hold Long – 6050 Reclaim on Hourly

    • Entry: 6050 reclaim with hourly close

    • Stop-Loss: Below 6040

    • Targets: 6068* → 6117 → 6150

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 6050-6068 is the last key area before a significant breakout; bulls gain strong momentum above this level.

Short Setup:

  • Breakdown Short – 5990/6007 Rejection

    • Entry: Short at 5990/6007 rejection with reversal candle

    • Stop-Loss: Above 6010

    • Targets: 5965 → 5920 → 5900*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 5990-6007 is a major resistance; failing here confirms a downside continuation toward key supports.

  • Breakdown Short – 5900 Failure

    • Entry: Short on 5900 failure with hourly close below

    • Stop-Loss: Above 5910

    • Targets: 5880* → 5860* → 5845*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: Losing 5900 puts lower key supports in play and aligns with bearish continuation.

  • Breakdown Short – 5880 Daily Close Below

    • Entry: Short on a daily close below 5880

    • Stop-Loss: Above 5895

    • Targets: 5855 → 5815* → 5752*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: A break below 5880 confirms bears gaining full control, accelerating downside moves.

  • Breakdown Short – 5855/45 Failure

    • Entry: Short on 5855/45 failure with rejection wick

    • Stop-Loss: Above 5865

    • Targets: 5815* → 5750* → 5725*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: Losing 5855/45 brings larger downside levels into play, with 5750 being a strong weekly target.

#NQ

Summary Notes:

  • Above 21460 → Bulls take control step by step toward 21815+

  • Below 20685 → Bears in control, targeting deeper support levels

  • Key Pivot Zones: 21250, 21410, 21815

Long Setup:

  • Support Hold Long – 20685 Holds

    • Entry: 20685 holds with confirmation

    • Stop-Loss: Below 20600

    • Targets: 20865* → 20940* → 21060*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 20685 is a key support level; holding it confirms bulls stepping in for a bounce toward short-term resistance.

  • Breakout Long – 21250 Reclaim

    • Entry: 21250 reclaim with hourly/4hr close above

    • Stop-Loss: Below 21180

    • Targets: 21310 → 21410*/460* → 21700*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 21250 is a resistance level; reclaiming it weakens bear momentum and brings 21410/460 into play.

  • Breakout Long – 21460 Daily Close

    • Entry: 21460 reclaim on the daily close

    • Stop-Loss: Below 21380

    • Targets: 21700* → 21815* → 22135/235*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 21460 is a major pivot, and a confirmed breakout strengthens the bullish case toward key resistance levels.

  • Reclaim & Hold Long – 21815 Reclaim

    • Entry: 21815 reclaim with hourly close

    • Stop-Loss: Below 21700

    • Targets: 22135/235* → 22320 → 22425+

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 21815 is a key breakout level; clearing it shifts momentum fully to the bulls with upside targets in play

Short Setup:

  • Breakdown Short – 21250/21410 Rejection

    • Entry: Short at 21250/21410 rejection with reversal confirmation

    • Stop-Loss: Above 21460

    • Targets: 21060 → 20865 → 20685*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: 21250-21410 is a strong resistance zone; failing to break it confirms continued bearish pressure.

  • Breakdown Short – 20685 Failure

    • Entry: Short on 20685 failure with hourly close below

    • Stop-Loss: Above 20750

    • Targets: 20590* → 20540* → 20360*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: Losing 20685 opens the door for lower support tests, aligning with bearish continuation.

  • Breakdown Short – 20540 Daily Close Below

    • Entry: Short on a daily close below 20540

    • Stop-Loss: Above 20590

    • Targets: 20325* → 20110*/20025* → 19940*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: A breakdown under 20540 signals bearish control, with deeper levels in play.

  • Breakdown Short – 20040/19940 Failure

    • Entry: Short on 20040/19940 failure with rejection candle

    • Stop-Loss: Above 20100

    • Targets: 19800* → 19635* → 19500*

    • Why Level Was Chosen: Losing 20040 confirms further downside momentum, accelerating selling pressure toward key weekly supports.

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

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]]><![CDATA[When Bias Holds You Back]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/when-bias-holds-you-backhttps://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/when-bias-holds-you-backSat, 22 Feb 2025 23:39:12 GMT

I won’t be able to publish my regular weekly newsletter tomorrow.

Instead, I’ve put together a review of my trades from yesterday on #NQ—with lessons and insights. I’m always working on improving every day, and I hope you find it helpful too.

Would love to hear your thoughts—share your comments below!

Subscribe now

Yesterday (Friday, Feb 21st, 2025) was one of those days that, looking back, offers a lot of lessons. It started off with a bounce I was expecting at 22050 after #NQ failed to hold daily support at 22125 and slid to that key level. I anticipated a bounce at 22050, and entered a long trade there. This time, I took a direct entry without waiting for confirmation from the 15m candle close. It's unusual for me to go long from a level close to a failed support at 22125 without confirmation, but I decided to take the trade anyway.

I posted my bias as bullish, and for a brief moment, it looked good—price bounced 60 points, hitting my first 1:2 target before reversing back to stop loss at breakeven. Some traders might've even ended up with a loss on this one, so there were a lot of lessons to absorb.

Later, I was eyeing 21980 as a potential defense spot for bulls, but I decided to wait for price to reclaim 22050 before going long again. Price stalled between 21960-22030, but it never made that 22050 reclaim I was looking for. Instead, it reversed lower, and the opportunity slipped away.

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Missed Short Opportunity

Now, here's where I really dropped the ball. I missed a clean short setup at failure of 21960. Looking back, I can’t say exactly why—I guess I was still carrying a lingering bullish bias. But in hindsight, that short was the much cleaner trade, and I simply didn’t take it. Classic mistake: sticking too hard to a bias and not executing when the setup presents itself.

As the day went on, I posted that I’d consider a long at 21860 (which would align with Thursday's open), but only if I got confirmation from a 15m or hourly close. To clarify, when I said, “If it fails—I’m sidelined for the day! ” on X (Twitter), I didn’t mean I’d avoid trading if 21860 failed as a level. I meant that if I took a long trade on a valid setup and it failed, I wouldn’t take any more long trades for the day.

However, the setup didn’t come through, and in fact the 15m candle closed below 21860. This time, I flipped my bias, taking the short according to my weekly plan (last Thursday’s open failed to hold). It ended up being the right move, and I finished the day positive.

Here are long & short trade setups from my last weekly newsletter for reference.

Why short at 21860 instead of 21820?

The weekly plan was to short at 21820 but 21860 was also the price at Thursday's open (Feb 13th, 2025), which I had already identified as a key level for bulls to defend against a deeper pullback. With price dropping sharply, the 15m red candle close at this level provided a trend-following entry. Once it broke, the downtrend and momentum were clear, making 21860 a solid entry for a short. If it reversed, my stop loss would’ve limited any further losses. More on trend-following in another article.

Why I Didn’t Post the Short at 21860 ?

After some traders had taken a loss on the earlier long trade, I hesitated to post the short setup. I didn’t want others to potentially take another loss, especially after the first trade had gone against the bias. But this time, the short setup worked nicely, and I learned important lessons:

Key Takeaways

  • Bias Awareness: Recognize when your bias is clouding your judgment. I was too focused on the long side, even when a valid short setup presented itself.

  • The Short at 21960 Was a Missed Opportunity: I had the setup but didn’t pull the trigger. This is a reminder to execute the plan, not the emotions.

  • Stick to the Plan: It’s crucial to stick with your game plan, regardless of what happened in previous trades. Waiting for the setup is key!!

  • Be Flexible: Don’t lock into one bias. The market will show you the way. Yesterday, I failed to follow that advice.

  • Take Profits Level to Level: Especially against the trend and trail the stop as target hits.

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These lessons also made me reflect on a few contributing factors that I think could have played a role in my missed opportunities:


1. Started the Day Late – Lack of Preparation

I didn’t take the time to review the bigger picture before the session. When you skip this step, it’s easy to focus only on the immediate price action and get caught up in reacting instead of executing a planned strategy. Without a solid pre-market review, I found myself reacting to the bounces instead of anticipating failure points or recognizing key levels earlier. It could explain why I went long at 22050 without confirmation or missed the short setup when it appeared.

2. Thursday’s Bullish Defense & Perceived Strength

Thursday’s strong recovery at 21960 and quick reclaim of 22050 that could have mentally reinforced a bullish bias coming into Friday. This might have made me expect the same reaction at those levels rather than treating each session independently.

3. Missed the Key 22250 Reclaim for Bullish Confirmation

The true bullish confirmation would have been a reclaim of 22250, where last Wednesday’s (Feb 19th) sell-off began, leading to this Thursday’s (Feb 20th) test of 21960. Friday’s high stopped just short of 22250, and that was an early sign of weakness. If I had recognized this before the session, I could have been more cautious with my longs and more aggressive with shorts. This was a huge lesson on the importance of tracking not just support/resistance, but also where key trend shifts occurred—especially when price action shows a failure to reclaim critical levels like 22250.

3. Overlooked My Own Key Level: 22310-22320

I also missed referencing my own analysis from the weekly newsletter, where I noted that bulls needed to claim 22310 for a sustained upside move. Tuesday’s high was precisely 22319.75 but failed to claim 22320. Overnight, a 4-hour candle closed above 22310, but the very next one turned strong red, signaling bears were stronger until that level is claimed. In hindsight, I should have wrote bulls as weak or bears strong below 22320 starting from Wednesday.

What I’ve Learned Moving Forward:

  • Pre-market preparation is key: Missing out on this left me reacting too much to what was happening in the moment instead of staying objective.

  • Each day is unique: Past support or resistance doesn't guarantee it will hold the same way again. Treat each session with fresh eyes.

  • Reclaiming key levels is critical for confirmation: The failure to claim 22250 level should’ve been a warning sign that bulls weren’t in control, and I should have adjusted my bias accordingly.

  • Trust my own levels: Every missed detail is a lesson, and every lesson makes me a stronger trader.

It’s important to remember that I preach not locking into a single bias—staying flexible and letting the market show me the way is key. Yesterday (Feb 21st, 2025), however, I violated a few of my own rules.

  1. I didn’t wait for the confirmation candle on the 15m/1hr before entering.

  2. Even though I was expecting a bullish move from 22050, the real confirmation would have only come after reclaiming the 22125 level. But I ignored that, even though I always say that when the second support or resistance fails or gets rejected, it confirms a trend continuation. I should’ve followed my own rule, but I didn’t.

That said, I did do a few things right. I didn’t rush into a long at 21960/980, even though I could’ve. Instead, I waited for a 22050 reclaim, which never came (although there was still another precise 60pt long trade). And finally, I stuck to my plan and flipped to short at 21860, which turned out to be the right move in the end.

I make mistakes, and I’m trying to improve every day. Acknowledging them and learning from them is all part of the plan.

Moving forward, I need to stay true to my rules, especially when it comes to confirmation and key levels, and focus on being flexible with my bias.

Final Thought:

I always say chart reading is only part of the trading game. The rest? Execution, risk management, and psychology. I can mark all the right levels, but if I don’t execute properly, manage risk, or control emotions, the best analysis in the world won’t help. This Friday (Feb 21st, 2025) wasn’t just about missing key levels—it was a reminder that trading is about making real-time decisions under pressure, and that’s where discipline makes all the difference!

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Actionable Insights! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 2/17- 2/21]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-217-221https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-217-221Sun, 16 Feb 2025 21:22:21 GMT

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

How’s last week?

  • Another gap-down open last week, but #ES, #NQ, and #YM held key higher-low supports perfectly.

  • Metals rallied but dumped Friday, retesting last week’s breakout levels.

  • #CL nailed levels again—73.35 resistance, 70.42 support. Bears still in control.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (2/17 – 2/21)

  • Short trading week with markets closed Monday for Presidents' Day.

  • Next week brings usual economic reports, plus Tuesday’s Trump interview and Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes—expect some volatility.

  • Earnings season rolls on with big names like $WMT, $BABA, $TOL, $BKNG, $OXY, $RIVN, $MELI, and more.

  • In short, if the market holds or reclaims Thursday’s open/low quickly, the bullish move continues.

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES Bullish above 6099, Bearish below 6070

  • Bears weak > 6054

  • Bulls keep momentum > 6122

#NQ Bullish above 22105, Bearish below 22050

  • Bears weak > 21960

  • Bulls keep momentum > 22105

#RTY Bullish above 2267, Bearish below 2258

  • Bulls weak < 2336

  • Claiming 2305 & then 2333/36 - key for bullish continuation

  • #YM Bullish above 44550/44505, Bearish below 44360

  • Bulls weak < 44970

  • Claiming 44970/45175 - key for bullish continuation

#SI Bullish above 32.55, Bearish below 32.45

  • Bulls weak < 33.275

  • 32.55/32.45 key support for bulls to make one more run for 32.95*, 33.275*, 33.85*, 34.05, 34.25*, 34.60+

  • In a deeper pullback, bulls must hold/defend or reclaim 32.05 quickly

  • If 32.45 fails, 32.16/32.10, 32.05*, 31.92, 31.87, 31.67*/31.57**- in play

  • Bulls lose control 32.45 → 32 → 31.55 → 30.94 → 30.56

#GC Bullish above 2885, Bearish below 2875

  • Back to almost same levels as last week!

  • In case of deeper pullback, bulls must defend 2856 to bring back 2892, 2910, 2923, 2952, 3000+ in play

  • If 2875 fails, 2870*, 2856*, 2850/2846*, 2837*/30, 2825- in play

  • Bulls lose control step by step 2875 → 2837 → 2795

#PL Bullish above 1008, Bearish below 1008

  • Bulls still weak < 1045

  • Back to almost same levels as last week!

  • As long 1003/998 holds, 1023, 1038*, 1050*, 1060/65*, 1072*+ in play

  • If 1008 fails, 998*, 991*, 979*, 971*/965, 957*, 951- in play

  • 979 last level for bulls to defend to keep last month's move in play

  • Bears lose control step by step 1038 → 1050* → 1065*

#PA Bullish above 988, Bearish below 978

  • Bulls still weak < 1070

  • If 988 holds/reclaimed, 1009, 1025, 1038*, 1050, 1063*, 1070, 1080*+ in play

  • If 978 fails, 974, 965, 959*, 951/944*, 937/934*, 928*, 918- in play

  • Bears lose control step by step 1005 → 1025 → 1063 → 1080*

  • 1120/50 are key resistance for bulls to claim and hold to confirm reversal of multi year downtrend

#CL Bullish above 70.36, Bearish below 70.12

  • Bulls weak < 73.40

  • Bears control < 75.20

  • Back to almost same levels as last week!

  • As long 70.36 holds, 70.80, 71.15, 71.6*, 71.85*, 72*, 72.55*, 73.20/73.40*, 74, 74.55+ in play

  • If 70.12 fails, 69.80, 69.60*, 69.4*/69.25*, 69*, 68.45*, 67.20*- in play

  • Bears lose control step by step 72 → 73.40* → 75.20

  • After 4 strong red weeks, bulls have last chance to keep the move from Dec in play

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Last week, 6020/6003 were key weekly supports for bulls. They tested 6020 precisely and held.

Current Outlook:

  • Bears remain weak above 6054.

  • Bulls must hold/reclaim 6078/6070 to sustain upside momentum.

  • 6054 is the last line of defense for bulls—losing it boosts bear confidence.

  • If 6053 fails, but quickly dips to 6031 and recovers 6054, that’s bullish.

  • A red close below 6053 puts 6020/14*, 5983*, 5968*/60, 5935, and 5900/5890 in play.

  • 5945 is a key monthly support.

  • Bulls lose control step by step with red closes below 6053 → 6014 → 5945.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 6031/22 as support and reclaim 6148, targeting 6164*, 6215, 6248*, 6287+.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 6148 or lower, then break 6122 (hourly/4hr red close) to target 6099*, 6078/70*, 6054*, 6031*-.

Big Picture:

  • If 6031/20 holds/reclaimed on daily: Targets 6148, 6248, 6290, 6385+.

  • If 6014 fails on daily: Targets 5983*, 5945/35*, 5890, 5865*/09*.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 6132*, 6124/22*, 6109*, 6099*/95, 6078/70*, 6058/53*

  • Daily: 6078*/54*, 6031/20*, 5983*, 5948/35*

  • Weekly: 6070*, 6016*, 5983*, 5865*/60*

  • Monthly: 5945*, 5865, 5815*/5800, 5745

  • Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 6138, 6143/48*, 6154, 6164*

  • Daily: 6148*, 6164/90*, 6215, 6285*

  • Weekly: 6164*, 6248*, 6290*, 6310

  • Monthly: 6153*/90, 6248/6260*, 6310

  • Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#NQ:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Last Sunday’s gap-down tested key 21430 support (21418 low), then quickly recovered and reclaimed 21530—a bullish above level which was tested again after Wednesday’s CPI report.

  • From there, the market pushed higher, claiming key 21970 and 22090 resistance levels.

Current Outlook:

  • Bears remain weak above 21960.

  • A quick flush below 22040 to 21995/960, followed by a same-day reclaim of 22050, is still bullish.

  • If Friday’s low fails on the daily, 21860/820 is an ideal spot for bulls to form a higher low and continue upward.

  • If 21820 fails, next supports are 21750 and 21670.

  • If 21750 fails, expect 21460/420* and 21210* to come into play.

  • If 21210 fails, 20980/940* is next.

  • Bulls must hold 21860/820 as the first weekly support to maintain upside momentum.

  • 21460 is the last weekly support to keep bulls in play—losing it opens the door for more downside.

  • Above 22050, bulls keep ATH/22850/23000 in play.

  • Bulls lose control step by step with red closes below 22040 → 21820 → 21420 → 20940.

  • A daily/weekly close below 20940 could trigger a multi-week downtrend, potentially bringing 20500/380*/20010*/19900/19500* into play.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 22155/105 and quickly reclaim 22310, targeting 22425 and ATH+.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • If 22040 fails, expect 21960/920, 21875/820*, and 21775*- to come into play.

Big Picture:

  • If 21530 holds or is reclaimed: Targets 21915/970/22090/22310/22650+.

  • If 21430 fails: Targets 21375/240/200*/170/20970*.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 22155, 22105, 22050*, 21995, 21960*, 21920, 21820*

  • Daily: 22040*, 21960/820*, 21750*/670*, 21465

  • Weekly: 21820*/750*, 21465/415*, 21200*, 20980*

  • Monthly: 21210*, 20940*, 20070*/20010*

  • Yearly: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 22225, 22290*, 22320*, 22375*, 22410*

  • Daily: 22310, 22415*, 22610*, 22890*

  • Weekly: 22425*, 22760, 23130*

  • Monthly: 22060, 22425/22525, 23230

  • Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#RTY:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Expected another attempt to test and claim 2333/36, but it didn’t happen.

  • Instead, bullish weakness or bearish strength prevailed, testing 2235 (second weekly support, 2231.4 low) before bouncing back to 2306.

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls remain weak below 2336.

  • Bearish until 2307 is claimed on the daily or at least the 4-hour chart.

  • Bears gain strength if a red day closes below 2258.

  • Since making a high in November, price has been consolidating in a broad range between 2198 and 2336.

  • Two weeks ago, 2198 was tested and bounced. Last week, despite not testing 2336, a green weekly close keeps the bullish bias intact for at least 2328-2336.

  • If 2336 isn’t claimed after testing, expect a move back toward 2258-2197, with potential for even lower levels.

  • Key supports: 2267 for the week, 2259 for the month.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 2270/67 and quickly reclaim 2307 to target 2328/36, 2346, and 2363+.

  • A close above 2336 on the hourly or 4-hour chart signals stronger commitment and reinforces the bullish move.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 2305 and quickly claim 2258 (confirmed by an hourly/4-hour red close), bringing 2235*, 2217, 2209, and 2197*- into play.

Big Picture:

  • If 2285 holds and 2333 is claimed on the daily: Targets 2363/2386/2395+.

  • If 2275 fails on the daily: Targets 2261/58/36*/14/2196-.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 2285/82*, 2275, 2270/67*, 2260

  • Daily: 2267*/58*, 2235*, 2213/09*, 2196*

  • Weekly: 2267*/2258*, 2235*, 2197*

  • Monthly: 2258*/51, 2195/2181*, 2068/2033*

  • Yearly: 2194/2181*, 2058*, 1972*

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 2290*, 2296*, 2301/2305*, 2319

  • Daily: 2301/2305*, 2319, 2328*, 2333/36*

  • Weekly: 2307*, 2336*, 2373*, 2390/2400

  • Monthly: 2336*, 2445, 2468*, 2560*

  • Yearly: 2463, 2615/2756, 3000

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 2181/2058 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2315, 2463, 2615/2756+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 2315/2445, targets 2081*, 2058*, 1972, 1916-.

#YM:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Last week, bulls needed to hold 44410/350 – they defended 44100 during the Sunday gap down and reclaimed 44410 the same night, keeping bullish momentum intact.

  • Price hit the first weekly resistance at 44850 (high: 44879) before pulling back.

Current Outlook:

  • As expected, bulls were weak below 44970 last week, leading to selling on every up move; however, price continued making higher lows and highs on the 4-hour chart.

  • This price action maintains a bullish bias, with potential for a retest of 44970 and possibly a breakout.

  • Bulls remain weak below 44970.

  • Bulls must defend 44500/360 to sustain bullish momentum.

  • A red daily close below 44360 could lead to multiple red days.

  • If 44195 fails on the daily, then 43680/43345 comes into play.

  • 44390/360 is key weekly support.

  • 43345 is key monthly support.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 44550/500 and reclaim 44750* to resume testing 44815, 44970*, 45070*, 45175*, and beyond.

  • A close above 44970 on the hourly or 4-hour chart signals intent to test 45075/225/355/700+.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears defend 44750/44815/44880 and claim 44360 (confirmed by an hourly/4-hour red close), bringing 44180, 44070, 43965*, and 43845 into play.

Big Picture:

  • If 44360 holds or is reclaimed on the daily, then 44750/970/45155/ATH+ come into play.

  • If 43360 fails on the daily, then 44180, 43965, 43720/680*, and 43345* become the downside targets.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 44550/500, 44470/430, 44390*, 44300*

  • Daily: 44360*, 44240/180*, 44100/43965*

  • Weekly: 44390*, 44180*/44100*, 43680*

  • Monthly: 43345*/320, 42940/810*, 41970**/41790*

  • Yearly: 40330*/41260, 40100/39335, 37900

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 44695, 44750*, 44815*, 44880*, 44970*

  • Daily: 44825*/970*, 45045/45175*, 45355

  • Weekly: 44850, 45155*, 45355, 45600

  • Monthly: 45155, 45355, 45900, 47440

  • Yearly: 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 41790/40100 holds or is reclaimed, targets 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 44485/45050, targets 41790/40100/37870-.

[BONUS]

Here are example long and short setups based on the levels above.

Not financial advice.

#ES

Long Setup:

  • Support Hold:

    • If 6133/22 support holds

    • If 6054 support holds

  • Quick Flush & Reclaim:

    • Long above 6054 if there’s a dip to 6031 followed by a fast recovery and reclaim of 6054.

    • This confirms a bear trap and signals bullish momentum.

  • Holding/Reclaiming Weekly Support:

    • Long at 6078/6070 if price holds or reclaims these weekly support levels, confirming continuation higher.

  • Deep Pullback Reversal:

    • Long at 5945 if price stabilizes, as this is key monthly support and a strong level for a potential bounce.

Short Setup:

  • Failed Reclaim & Rejection:

    • Short below 6070 if price retests but fails to reclaim this key weekly support, signaling weakness and a move toward 6054.

  • Break of Last Bullish Defense:

    • Short below 6054 if price breaks and retests it as resistance, confirming bearish momentum toward 6031.

    • If 6031 doesn’t hold, expect continuation lower.

  • Major Breakdown Confirmation:

    • Short below 6053 on a red close if price closes a red day below 6053, opening up downside targets at 6020/14 → 5983 → 5968/60.

  • Break & Retest of Monthly Support:

    • Short below 5945 if price breaks and retests this key monthly support, signaling a larger breakdown toward 5900/5890 and beyond.

#NQ

Long Setup:

  • Support Holds:

    • If 22155/105 support holds

    • If 22050 support holds

  • Quick Flush & Reclaim:

    • Long above 22050 if there's a flush below 22040 to 21995/960 followed by a same-day reclaim of 22050.

  • Higher Low Setup:

    • Long at 21860/820 if price holds on the hourly and shows signs of reversal, as this is the first major weekly support for bulls.

  • Deep Pullback Reversal:

    • Long at 21460/420 if price stabilizes, as this is the last key weekly support before a larger breakdown risk.

Short Setup:

  • Failed Reclaim & Rejection:

    • Short below 22040 if price attempts to reclaim but fails, especially if it rejects 22050 after a flush below 21995/960.

    • This confirms bulls losing momentum step by step.

  • Break of Key Support:

    • Short below 21820 if price breaks and retests this level as resistance. This signals a shift in control towards 21750/21670 next.

  • Break & Retest of Last Bullish Defense:

    • Short below 21460/420 if price closes an hourly candle under it and fails to reclaim.

    • This is the last key weekly support, and losing it increases the probability of 21210/20940 coming into play.

  • Major Breakdown Confirmation:

    • Short below 20940 on a red close if a daily or weekly candle closes under this level, signaling the start of a multi-week downtrend toward 20500/19900.

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 2/10- 2/14]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-210-214https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-210-214Sun, 09 Feb 2025 19:05:26 GMT

Keeping this newsletter short and sweet—but I think you’ll find it actionable and helpful for your trading!

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

How’s last week?

  • Somewhat anticipated a gap-down open last week, and the market delivered. But Sunday’s flush dropped lower than expected.

  • Recovered key support levels, and bulls took charge—just like the previous week.

  • Sunday night, I tweeted that markets were at support, with a back test likely once the hourly & 4H candles turned green.

  • Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened.

  • #GC hit my 2875, 2890, and 2905 targets.

  • #SI threw its usual tantrums.

  • #PL & #PA pulled back, with #PA dropping sharply.

  • #CL respected levels perfectly—75.20 on the upside, 70.45 on the downside.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (2/10 – 2/14)

  • Another busy week ahead with key economic reports from Wednesday to Friday.

  • Expect volatility to kick off early with Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Tuesday, followed by Wednesday’s CPI report.

  • Earnings season rolls on, with major reports from $KO, $MCD, $CSCO, plus $PANW, $AAP, $RDDT, $COIN, $SMCI, and more.

  • Plenty of catalysts to keep volatility high.

  • Last two weeks followed the same pattern: Sunday gap down, big flush, Monday-Friday recovery, then Friday pullback from key resistance.

  • Bulls need to hold or reclaim key support and break key resistance on the daily to gain control.

  • Without that, bulls are playing a weak hand—short/mid-term bulls need confirmation before committing to longs.

Trading Implications

  • Take quick profits on longs until resistance is claimed on the daily.

  • Wait patiently for strong setups at support for long entries.

  • #ES, #NQ, and #RTY closed green last week, #YM barely red— hence no strong bearish lean yet.

  • Bears need failed support levels and rejection on retests to confirm downside continuation.

  • If a gap down, bears want to see follow-through; otherwise, bulls regain short-term control.

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES Bullish above 6043, Bearish below 6020

  • Bulls weak < 6108

  • Claiming 6108/39 - key for bullish continuation

#NQ Bullish above 21530, Bearish below 21430

  • Bulls weak < 21925

  • Claiming 21850/970 - key for bullish continuation

#RTY Bullish above 2285, Bearish below 2265

  • Bulls weak < 2336

  • Claiming 2333/36 - key for bullish continuation

#YM Bullish above 44410, Bearish below 44350

  • Bulls weak < 44970

  • Claiming 44970/45155 - key for bullish continuation

#SI Bullish above 32.05, Bearish below 31.81

  • Bulls weak < 32.90

  • Still 31.75, 31.57 key support for bulls to hold in any pullbacks else 31.25, 31*, 30.58- in play

  • As long 32.05 holds/reclaimed, 32.85/32.90, 33.15, 33.35, 33.575*, 34*, 34.60+ in play

  • Bulls lose control 32 → 31.55 → 30.94 → 30.56

#GC Bullish above 2874, Bearish below 2870

  • In case of deeper pullback, bulls must defend 2857 to bring back 2892, 2910, 2923, 2952, 3000+ in play

  • If 2870 fails, 2857*, 2846*, 2830, 2825- in play

  • Bulls lose control step by step 2830 → 2795 → 2770 → 2735

#PL Bullish above 1008, Bearish below 998

  • Bulls weak < 1045

  • As long 1003/998 holds, 1024/28, 1035*, 1045*, 1060/65, 1072*+ in play

  • If 998 fails, 991*, 979*, 971*/965, 957*, 951- in play

  • 979 last level for bulls to defend to keep last month's move in play

  • Bears lose control step by step 1024 → 1036 → 1047 → 1065*

#PA Bullish above 966, Bearish below 959

  • Bulls weak < 1070

  • If 966 holds, 1005/15, 1020/25*, 1050, 1063*, 1070, 1080*+ in play

  • If 959 fails, 951/944*, 937/934*, 928*, 918- in play

  • Bears lose control step by step 1005 → 1025 → 1063 → 1080*

  • 1120/50 are key resistance for bulls to claim and hold to confirm reversal of multi year downtrend

#CL Bullish above 70.42, Bearish below 70.12

  • Bulls weak < 73.35

  • As long 70.42 holds, 71.35*, 71.66, 71.85*, 72.10, 72.76*, 73.20/73.35*, 74, 74.55+ in play

  • If 70.12 fails, 69.80, 69.60*, 69.4/69.25*, 69*, 68.45*- in play

  • Bears lose control step by step 71.85 → 73.35 → 75.20 → 76.45

  • After 3 strong red weeks, bulls have a chance to keep move the from Dec in play

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Last week, 6032 / 5994 were key weekly supports—bulls held and reclaimed them.

  • For the third week in a row, Friday’s close suggests a possible pullback.

  • However, support remains nearby.

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak below 6108.

  • 6020/6003 are critical weekly supports—must hold/reclaim to sustain upside.

  • 5945 is the key monthly support.

  • If 6020 fails, next supports: 5983 → 5968/60 → 5900/5890.

  • If a red close below 5968, likely downside targets: 5900/5890 → 5865 → 5815.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 6043 as support and quickly reclaim 6088/6100, opening the door for 6108 → 6132 → 6144 → 6148 → 6164 → ATH+.*

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 6088/6108 or lower and claim 6043/6020 (hourly/4H red close), bringing 5994 → 5987/83 → 5965 → 5945/5935* → 5900* into play.**

Big Picture:

  • If 5983 holds/reclaims on daily, targets: 6108 → 6150 → 6248 → 6385+

  • If 5962 fails on daily, targets: 5890 → 5865 → 5815 → 5745*-

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day : 6044*, 6031*, 6022/18, 6012, 6003, 5994

  • Daily : 6043*, 6020, 5983*, 5948/5935*

  • Weekly : 6003*, 5983*, 5865/5860**

  • Monthly : 5945*, 5865, 5815/5800, 5745*

  • Yearly : 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day : 6056, 6063/69*, 6075, 6088*, 6100*, 6108/6122*

  • Daily : 6108/6122, 6148**, 6164/6190*

  • Weekly : 6122/6132, 6164*, 6248*, 6310

  • Monthly : 6153/6190, 6248/6260**, 6310

  • Yearly : 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#NQ:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Sunday’s gap down tested key 20940 support, then recovered and reclaimed 21375/21280 monthly & weekly supports by Monday.

  • As noted last week, above 21460, bulls had a chance to test 21940/22020—they reached 21968 high but failed to reclaim, leading to a sharp pullback.

  • Support is still holding, but barely.

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak below 21850.

  • 21200 is a critical weekly/monthly support—must hold to sustain upside momentum.

  • Above 21530, bulls can test & reclaim 21970/22020/22090+.

  • Key for bullish continuation: Reclaiming 21850/21970.

  • If 21200 fails, next supports: 20980 → 20940 → 20875 → 20675 → 20500.**

  • So far, price action remains sideways within the 20940-22060 range.

  • A daily/weekly close below 20940 could trigger a multi-week downtrend, targeting 20500 → 20380 → 20010 → 19900.**

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 21560/21530 and quickly reclaim 21730/21775 to resume upside toward 21850 → 21970 → 22020 → 22290*+

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • If 21430 fails, next downside targets: 21360 → 21300 → 21240 → 21210 → 21130 → 20095*-

Big Picture:

  • If 21530 holds or is reclaimed, targets: 21915 → 21970 → 22090 → 22310 → 22650+

  • If 21430 fails, targets: 21375 → 21240 → 21200 → 21170 → 20970*-

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day : 21560/21530*, 21500/21480*, 21430*, 21360*, 21315*

  • Daily : 21430*, 21200/21110**, 20970/20900*

  • Weekly : 21200*, 20940/20875*, 20675/20500**

  • Monthly : 21210*, 20940*, 20070/20010**

  • Yearly : 19650/19500*, 18590/18400*, 17465

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day : 21625/21670, 21730, 21805*, 21850, 21915, 21970*

  • Daily : 21850*, 21970*, 22020/22090*, 22310, 22415*

  • Weekly : 21770/21970*, 22090*, 22425*, 22760

  • Monthly : 22060, 22425/22525, 23230

  • Yearly : 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#RTY:


Key Levels Recap:

  • Bulls needed to hold 2280 or at least 2275 to maintain momentum.

  • Sunday night flush briefly dropped below 2275 but recovered quickly, keeping the bullish path intact.

  • Tested key 2336 resistance, but failed to reclaim—2nd week in a row showing bulls lack strength at key resistance.

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls remain weak below 2336.

  • Holding 2259 suggests one more attempt at 2333/2336 is likely.

  • A trend move requires either 2274 failing or 2333/36 claiming.

  • Key supports: 2274 (weekly), 2259 (monthly).

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 2285, then quickly claim 2320/2333 to target 2346 → 2363 → 2383+.

  • A close above 2336 on the hourly/4-hour chart confirms strength and reinforces upside momentum.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 2321 and quickly push below 2284 (hourly/4-hour red close) to bring 2265 → 2261 → 2258 → 2252 → 2243** into play.

Big Picture:

  • If 2285 holds & 2333 is reclaimed on daily, targets: 2363 → 2386 → 2395+

  • If 2275 fails on daily, targets: 2261 → 2258 → 2236 → 2214 → 2196*-

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day : 2285/2282*, 2266*, 2261, 2253*, 2245/2243*

  • Daily : 2283*, 2247/2235*, 2209, 2197*

  • Weekly : 2265/2258**, 2247/2235*, 2197*

  • Monthly : 2258/2251*, 2195/2181*, 2068/2033*

  • Yearly : 2194/2181*, 2058*, 1972*

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day : 2296*, 2311, 2321*, 2327, 2333*

  • Daily : 2313, 2333/2336**, 2346, 2364*

  • Weekly : 2336*, 2373*, 2390/2400, 2431

  • Monthly : 2336*, 2445, 2468*, 2560*

  • Yearly : 2463, 2615/2756, 3000

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 2181/2058 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2315, 2463, 2615/2756+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 2315/2445, targets 2081*, 2058*, 1972, 1916-.

#YM:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Last week, bulls needed to defend 44,310 and reclaim 44,475 same day to sustain bullish momentum.

  • Sunday night drop to 43,965 was quickly recovered, reclaiming 44,310 and 44,475 the same day, allowing bulls to test December highs.

  • Pulled back from highs to retest key 44,360/44,310 support.

Current Outlook:

  • After hitting December highs on Thursday, dropped 750+ points closing in red.

  • Bulls remain weak below 44,970.

  • Bulls must defend 44,350/44,310 and recover 44,625 same day to maintain bullish momentum.

  • A red day close below 44,310 could extend selling pressure.

  • If 44,195 fails on daily, 43,680/43,345 comes into play.

  • Key weekly support: 44,360/44,310

  • Key monthly support: 43,345

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 44,410/44,350 and reclaim 44,625* to resume testing 44,750 → 44,970 → 45,070 → 45,155*+**

  • A close above 44,970 on hourly/4-hour charts strengthens upside momentum toward 45,075 → 45,225 → 45,355 → 45,700+

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears defend 44,625/44,750/44,970 and push below 44,310 (hourly/4-hour red close) to bring 44,070 → 43,965 → 43,845- into play.

Big Picture:

  • If 44,310 holds/reclaims on daily, targets: 44,750 → 44,970 → 45,155 → ATH+

  • If 43,310 fails on daily, targets: 42,810 → 42,750 → 42,200 → 41,970-

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 44,410, 44,360, 44,310, 44,070*

  • Daily: 44,310*, 44,240/44,165*, 44,000

  • Weekly: 44,310*, 44,000*, 43,680*

  • Monthly: 43,345/43,320*, 42,940/42,810*, 41,970/41,790**

  • Yearly: 40,330/41,260*, 40,100/39,335, 37,900

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 44,525, 44,625*, 44,750*, 44,840, 44,960*

  • Daily: 44,790/44,970*, 45,045/45,155*, 45,355

  • Weekly: 44,850, 45,155*, 45,355, 45,600

  • Monthly: 45,155, 45,355, 45,900, 47,440

  • Yearly: 45,050, 46,975, 48,050, 49,685

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 41790/40100 holds or is reclaimed, targets 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 44485/45050, targets 41790/40100/37870-.

Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:

Uptrend to Downtrend:

  1. Fail key support levels.

  2. Reject first support in back tests.

  3. Sell-the-rally mania.

  4. Breakdowns with staying power.

  5. Form lower highs & lows.

Downtrend to Uptrend:

  1. Claim key resistance levels.

  2. Hold second support in pullbacks.

  3. Buy-the-dip frenzy.

  4. Breakouts with staying power.

  5. Form higher highs & lows.

Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:

  1. Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.

  2. Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)

  3. Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.

  4. Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).

  5. Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.

Note - Trend change begins on the lower time frame.

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 2/03- 2/07]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-203-207https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-203-207Sun, 02 Feb 2025 18:12:24 GMT

Keeping this newsletter short and sweet—but I think you’ll find it actionable and helpful for your trading!

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

How’s last week?

  • Last week, I warned in a tweet and newsletter about volatility and wild swings—markets delivered!

  • After Sunday night's sharp flush, Monday recovered key support and kept climbing.

  • Had some opportunities to catch the part of the move but needed quick profit take & wider stop loss resulting in smaller position size.

  • #YM stole the show, rebounding off key support from last week and hitting a new ATH as expected.

  • Metals shined—#GC, #PL, #PA, and #SI all had strong moves.

  • #CL stayed weak, failing to reclaim last week's key resistance level but holding monthly support at 71.85—giving bulls one more shot.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (2/03 – 2/07)

  • Another busy week ahead with economic reports Monday through Friday—Friday's NFP/Unemployment data could bring extra volatility.

  • Earnings season heats up with major reports from $GOOGL, $AMZN, $LLY, $AZN, $NVO, $DIS, plus $RBLX, $MRK, $PFE, and more.

  • Plenty of catalysts to keep volatility high.

  • Key Levels for a Gap Down & Fast Flush

    • Watching these levels for potential long setups on lower timeframes—stick to quick level-to-level profit-taking until a daily green close confirms bullish intent.

      • #ES: 6032, 6007, 5968

      • #NQ: 21340/300, 21160, 20980

      • #YM: 44360/310, 43680, 43345

      • #RTY: 2275, 2261/58, 2236

    • Fast flush below these levels & snap recovery / reclaim of these levels could signal bullish intent. More detailed levels in the sections below.

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES: Bullish above 6063, Bearish below 6055

  • Bulls weak < 6107

  • Claiming 6107/39 - key for bulls to continuation

#NQ: Bullish above 21550/520, Bearish below 21460

  • Bulls weak < 21780

  • Claiming 21780/925 - key for bulls to continuation

#RTY: Bullish above 2285, Bearish below 2275

  • Bulls weak < 2336

  • Claiming 2333/36 - key for bulls to continuation

#YM: Bullish above 44635, Bearish below 44220

  • Bulls weak < 45075

  • Claiming 45075 - key for bulls to continuation

#SI: Bullish above 31.92, Bearish below 31.57

  • After 3 weeks of multiple attempts, last week claimed 31.65 so 31.57 & 31 marks key support for bulls to hold in any deeper pullbacks

  • 32.85, 33, 33.35, 34, 34.60+ in play as long 31.92 holds/reclaimed

#GC: Bullish above 2828, Bearish below 2824

  • Bulls weak < 2852

  • Bulls need to quickly claim 2835, 2847/52* and 2857 to bring 2875/2890/2905/2952+ in play

  • As long bears hold 2852, 2811, 2798/95, 2785, 2772- in play

  • 2735 key monthly support bulls must defend / reclaim to continue upside move

  • Bulls lose control step by step on daily 2795 → 2770 → 2735

#PL: Bullish above 1025, Bearish below 1023

  • As long 1036/25 holds, 1060/65, 1072, 1090*/95*+ in play

  • If 1023 fails, 1008, 1004/1000, 995*, 980- in play

  • As wrote for many weeks now price is coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout or breakdown needed for bigger moves

#PA: Bullish above 1029, Bearish below 1018

  • Last week bulls needed to hold 967 to keep 1046/50+ in play. Tuesday's quick dip to 959 & recovery of 967 & 976 was failed breakdown and it moved up about 11% in next couple of days

  • As long bulls hold 1031/29, 1080, 1120, 1150+ in play

  • 1120/50 are next key resistance for bulls to claim and hold to confirm reversal of multi year downtrend

#CL: Bullish above 73, Bearish below 73

  • Bulls weak < 75.20

  • 71.85 monthly support

  • As long 73 holds, 74, 74.55, 75.20*, 76+ in play

  • If 73 fails, 72.15/72, 71.85*, 71.15, 70.45- in play

  • Bulls need to claim 75.20 to bring 76.5/76.85/77.45+ in play

  • bears lose control step by step 75.20 → 76.45 → 77.85

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak < 6107

  • Note 6032/5994 are weekly supports bulls must hold / reclaimed to continue upside move

  • 5945 key monthly support

  • If 6032 fails, 5995 next. If that fails 5938 / 5865- in play

  • If red day close below 6100/6087, 6032*/5995- likely target.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 6063/55 as support and quickly reclaim 6107 to bring 6144/48/64*/90+ in play

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 6083/88 or below & quickly claim 6063/55 (hourly/4hr red candle close below) to bring 6032/6012/5994- in play.

Big Picture:

  • If 6063/6032 holds/reclaimed on daily, 6106/6132*/6164/6192*/6248+ in play

  • If 6032 fails to hold on daily, 5994*/5968*/48/38*- in play

Support Levels:

  • Intraday: 6063, 6055*/45, 6038/32*, 6023

  • Daily: 6055*, 6012/07*, 5994*/74

  • Weekly: 6032*, 5968*, 5948/38*, 5865*

  • Monthly: 5945*, 5900*/5865, 5800, 5745

  • Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday: 6072, 6084/88*, 6107*/18, 6139*/44*

  • Daily: 6106*, 6148*, 6164/90*

  • Weekly: 6106/32, 6164*, 6248*, 6310

  • Monthly: 6153*/90, 6248/6260*, 6310

  • Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#NQ:

Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak < 21780

  • Above 21460, bulls have chance to test & reclaim 21940/22020

  • Claiming 21940 is key for bullish continuation

  • Note 21375/280 are weekly & monthly supports bulls must hold to continue upside move

  • If 21280 fails, 20980/940/885*- in play

  • So far looks like sideways action between 20940-22060 range

  • If day/week closes below 20940, could start multi week downtrend which likely to bring 20010/19900/19500- in play

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 21520/460 and quickly reclaims 21595/660 & 21780 resume testing 21940/22020/22290/22310+.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 21660/21780 & quickly claim 21460 (hourly/4hr red candle close below) to bring 21375/300/280/210/130/095*- in play

Big Picture:

  • If 21550 holds or reclaimed, 21925/940/22090/310/650+ in play

  • If 21460 fails, 21375/280/130/095/20910*- in play

Support Levels:

  • Intraday: 21550/520, 21460, 21425/380*

  • Daily: 21340/280*, 21160*, 20970*/900

  • Weekly: 21375*, 21030*, 20940/875*

  • Monthly: 21210*, 20940*, 20070*/20010*

  • Yearly: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465

Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday: 21595, 21660, 21780*, 21915/940*

  • Daily: 21940, 22020/090*, 22310, 22415*

  • Weekly: 21940/22090*, 22425*, 22760

  • Monthly: 22060, 22425/525, 23230

  • Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#RTY:


Current Outlook:

  • Bulls weak < 2336

  • Looks like sideways action / coiling between 2287-2333 range

  • Either 2275 fails or 2336 claimed to see trend move

  • These being key levels, quite possible to see false breakdowns or breakouts ?

  • How to know it's false breakout or breakdowns? If price reverses next day or so and closes below the breakout candle or closes above breakdown candle

  • 2275 key support for the week.

  • 2258 key support for the month

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 2291/85 and quickly claim 2333 to target 2346, 2363 and 2383+

  • A close above 2336 on the hourly or 4-hour chart would show stronger commitment and reinforce the bullish move.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears hold 2298/2305 & quickly claims 2284 (hourly/4hr red candle close below) to bring 2275/61- in play.

  • A bounce from 2275 and reject of 2286/88 would be bearish to continue below 2258/51*-

Big Picture:

  • If 2285 holds & 2333 claimed on daily, 2363/2386/95+ in play

  • If 2275 fails to hold on daily, 2261/58/36*/14/2196- in play

Support Levels:

  • Intraday: 2291*, 2285/82*, 2275, 2269

  • Daily: 2274*, 2261/58*, 2241/36*

  • Weekly: 2285/75*, 2258*, 2236, 2197*

  • Monthly: 2258*/51, 2194/2181*, 2068/2033*

  • Yearly: 2194/2181*, 2058*, 1972*

Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday: 2298/2305, 2314, 2228, 2333*

  • Daily: 2314, 2333*/36*, 2346, 2364*

  • Weekly: 2336*, 2373*, 2390/2400, 2431

  • Monthly: 2336*, 2445, 2468*, 2560*

  • Yearly: 2463, 2615/2756, 3000

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 2181/2058 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2315, 2463, 2615/2756+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 2315/2445, targets 2081*, 2058*, 1972, 1916-.

#YM:

Current Outlook:

  • Only index which made ATH last week Friday

  • But quickly gave away 500pts to close in red

  • Bulls weak < 45075

  • Bulls must defend 44360/310 in case of quick drop & recover 44475 same day to keep bullish momentum

  • Red day close below 44310 could bring in more days

  • If 44195 fails on daily, 43680/43345- in play

  • 44360/310 key weekly support

  • 43345 is key monthly support

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls holds 44665/635 and reclaim 45075 to resume testing 45225, 45355, 46000+

  • A close above 44850 on the hourly and 4-hour chart shows intention to test 45045/075/225

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears defend 44790/44850/45045 and claims 44635 to hold (hourly/4hr red candle close below) to bring 44280/44210/44095- in play

Big Picture:

  • If 44310 holds/reclaimed on daily, 44790/850/45075/ATH+ in play

  • If 43320 fails to hold on daily, 42810/750/200/41970- in play

Support Levels:

  • Intraday: 44665/635*, 44505, 44440*, 44280

  • Daily: 44440*, 44310*, 44240/165*, 44000

  • Weekly: 44475, 44360/310*, 44000, 43680*

  • Monthly: 43345/320, 42940/810*, 41970**/41790*

  • Yearly: 40330*/41260, 40100/39335, 37900

Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday: 44790, 44850*, 45045/075*, 45170

  • Daily: 45120/155*, 45355, 45600

  • Weekly: 44810, 45155*, 45355

  • Monthly: 45155, 45355, 45900, 47440

  • Yearly: 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 41790/40100 holds or is reclaimed, targets 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 44485/45050, targets 41790/40100/37870-.

Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:

Uptrend to Downtrend:

  1. Fail key support levels.

  2. Reject first support in back tests.

  3. Sell-the-rally mania.

  4. Breakdowns with staying power.

  5. Form lower highs & lows.

Downtrend to Uptrend:

  1. Claim key resistance levels.

  2. Hold second support in pullbacks.

  3. Buy-the-dip frenzy.

  4. Breakouts with staying power.

  5. Form higher highs & lows.

Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:

  1. Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.

  2. Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)

  3. Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.

  4. Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).

  5. Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 1/27- 1/31]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-127-131https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-127-131Sun, 26 Jan 2025 15:57:22 GMT

Keeping this newsletter short and sweet—but I think you’ll find it actionable and helpful for your trading!

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

How’s last week?

  • Last week played out just as expected, except for RTY's quick Monday night dip, which was a bit deeper than anticipated. However, it instantly reclaimed key support, keeping the bullish continuation intact.

  • I shared what worked throughout the week on X, so no need to repeat it all here. Check out those posts on X if you're curious!

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (1/27 – 1/31)

  • Busy Week Ahead:

    • Economic reports start with Tuesday's Consumer Confidence, followed by the FOMC rate decision and press conference on Wednesday, GDP/Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and PCE on Friday.

    • Earnings season is in full swing, with mega caps like $AAPL, $MSFT, $META, $TSLA, $V, $XOM, $MA, $ABBV, $ASML, $SAP, $IBM, and $NOW reporting.

    • Friday also marks the close of the monthly candle.

  • Volatility Alert:

    • Expect a mix of green and red days as markets react to packed events.

    • This week could test your trading psychology. If you're still working on discipline, it might be better to sit out. Otherwise, stick to your plan.

    • With increased volatility, manage risk by widening stop losses and reducing position sizes.

  • Key Market Levels:

    • #ES and #NQ: Pulled back from key resistance on Friday after strong green moves in recent weeks.

    • Will the pause turn into a pullback? Bears need to defend resistance and break key support for red days to continue.

    • Key Bull Levels: In case of a quick flush, bulls must defend Thursday's low (Jan 23) and Wednesday's open (Jan 22) to keep the next leg up in play.

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES:

  • Bullish above 6125/6120, Bearish below 6115.

  • Claiming 6150 key for continuation.

#NQ:

  • Bullish above 21850, Bearish below 21850.

  • Claiming 22020 key for continuation.

#RTY:

  • Bullish above 2319/2316, Bearish below 2311.

  • Claiming 2333/2336 key for continuation.

#YM:

  • Bullish above 44400, Bearish below 44320.

  • Claiming 44730 key for continuation.

#SI:

  • Bullish above 30.85, Bearish below 30.85.

  • Bulls still weak < 31.65

  • For 6 days in last 3 weeks attempted to close above key 31.65 but failed

  • 31.40, 31.65, 32.60, 33+ in play as long 30.85 holds/reclaimed

  • Daily close above 31.65 needed to continuation toward 33/34/35+

#GC:

  • Bullish above 2770/2761, Bearish below 2756.

  • Wednesday claimed 2759, hence 2756 last level for bulls to defend

  • If 2756 fails, could bring 2737/31/22- as back test targets

  • Bulls control > 2762, & brings 2790/2800/2850+ in play

#PL:

  • Bullish above 967, Bearish below 966.

  • Bulls still weak < 995

  • Bulls need to claim 973/984/995 to keep upside in play if 939 fails, 910- likely retest target

  • As wrote for many weeks now price is coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout or breakdown needed for bigger moves.

#PA:

  • Bullish above 1000, Bearish below 990.

  • Bulls need to hold 976/967 in case of deeper pullback to keep 1020/1046/1050+ in play

  • Claiming 1025 would pass control over to bulls

#CL:

  • Bullish above 74.30, Bearish below 74.12

  • Bulls weak < 77.90

  • As wrote last week if 76.54 fails, 74.29/73.30 targets, hit 74.29 (74 low)

  • Also as tweeted Thursday, key support, bulls listened and tried bounce though closed in weak green candle

  • Bulls need to claim 75.50/76 to bring 76.5/76.85/77.45+ in play

  • If 74.12 fails, 73.30/73.10/72.7- in play

  • bears lose control step by step 75.50 → 77.85 → 77.90

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Bulls defended support precisely & strong then hit 6155 target.

  • Friday's close suggests potential for a pullback.

  • However, key support levels are still intact.

Current Outlook:

  • Critical Support: 6032 is weekly support that bulls must hold to sustain upside momentum.

  • If 6032 Fails: Next support at 5995. Below that, 5938 and 5865 come into play.

  • Two Long Play Scenarios:

    1. Support Hold: Enter long if these levels hold or are reclaimed intraday: 6120/15, 6100, 6090, 6060*, 6032*.

    2. Breakout: Enter long on reclaim of 6150 with a confirmed hourly or 4-hourly candle.

  • Bearish Signals:

    • A red daily close below 6100/6087 makes 6032*/5995 likely targets.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls maintain support at 6125/20 and quickly reclaim 6150 to target 6180/6192/6220+.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears defend 6143/50 and secure 6115 with an hourly or 4-hour red candle close below, opening up targets at 6100/6087/6060-.

Big Picture:

  • If 6060/6032 holds or is reclaimed on a daily timeframe, targets expand to 6105/6153*/6192*/6220/6248+.

  • If 6087 fails to hold on a daily close, 6032*/5995/5968 become key downside levels.

Support Levels:

  • Intraday: 6125/20, 6115/07, 6100*.

  • Daily: 6100, 6060/6032*, 5995*.

  • Weekly: 6032*, 5968, 5865*.

  • Monthly: 5900*/5865, 5745/25*, 5656/26*.

  • Yearly: 5405, 5246, 5005.

Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday: 6143/50*, 6158, 6167*/72.

  • Daily: 6180/6192*, 6220*/6248*, 6275.

  • Weekly: 6164*, 6248*, 6310.

  • Monthly: 6051, 6153*/90, 6248.

  • Yearly: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#NQ:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Bulls held Friday's low, tested 22080 weekly resistance, and pulled back.

  • Support levels are still holding.

Current Outlook:

  • Above 21850: Bulls have a chance to test and reclaim 21940/22020.

  • Key Bullish Level: Claiming 22020 is crucial for continued upside momentum.

  • If Red Day Closes Below 21850:

    • Targets: 21765/21590/21480*.

  • Critical Support: Bulls must defend Thursday's low at 21765, or a deeper drop to 21590/21230 is likely.

  • Weekly Support: 21580 is a key level bulls must hold to sustain the uptrend.

  • If 21580 Fails:

    • Next supports: 21480, 21375, 21230.

    • Further downside targets: 21090/20940.

  • Two Long Play Scenarios:

    1. Support Hold: Enter long if the following levels hold or are reclaimed intraday: 21850, 21765*, 21590*, 21230*.

    2. Breakout: Enter long if 22020 is reclaimed with a confirmed hourly or 4-hourly candle.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 21850, reclaim 21940 and 22020, and push toward 22290/22310/22650*+.

Ideal Bearish Scenario:

  • Bears defend 21940/22020 and secure 21850 with an hourly or 4-hour red candle close below, targeting 21770/21695-.

Big Picture:

  • If 21850 holds or is reclaimed, targets include 22090/22310/22650*/23230+.

  • If 21850 fails, likely targets are 21770/21695/21630/21590-.

Support Levels:

  • Intraday: 21850, 21805*, 21770.

  • Daily: 21765, 21695, 21560.

  • Weekly: 21375, 21230*, 21090.

  • Monthly: 20940*, 20070*/20010*, 19800*.

  • Yearly: 19650/19500*, 18590/18400*, 17465.

Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday: 21940, 22020, 22090.

  • Daily: 22165, 22310, 22425.

  • Weekly: 22090*, 22425*, 22760.

  • Monthly: 21900, 22425/22525, 23200.

  • Yearly: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#RTY:


Key Levels Recap:

  • Bulls needed to hold 2280 or, at the very least, 2274 to maintain momentum.

  • On Monday night, price quickly dropped below 2274 but recovered within minutes, setting the stage for continued bullish action.

  • As noted last week: "If Friday’s low holds, 2305/2310/2314, 2336, and 2364+ are in play."

    • Sure enough, 2336 was hit (2337 high) on Wednesday before pulling back.

Current Outlook:

  • Above 2316: Bulls need to reclaim 2333/2336 to push toward 2364+.

  • If 2311 Fails on 4-Hour Chart:

    • Targets: 2289/2275 unless 2324/2333 are reclaimed.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 2319/2316, quickly reclaim 2333, and target 2346, 2363, and 2383+.

  • An hourly or 4-hour close above 2336 signals stronger bullish commitment and continuation.

Big Picture:

  • If 2310 is Reclaimed on Daily Chart: Targets include 2363/2386/2395+. (in play)

  • If 2181 Fails on Daily Chart: Likely downside to 2133/2101*/2091-.

Support Levels:

  • Intraday: 2319/2316, 2311, 2302*.

  • Daily: 2311*, 2287/2275*, 2261*.

  • Weekly: 2285*, 2258, 2197.

  • Monthly: 2250, 2194/2181*, 2068/2033*.

  • Yearly: 2194/2181*, 2058*, 1972*.

Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday: 2328, 2333/2336, 2346.

  • Daily: 2346, 2364, 2386*.

  • Weekly: 2372, 2400, 2431.

  • Monthly: 2260, 2315*, 2435/2445*.

  • Yearly: 2463, 2615/2756, 3000

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 2181/2058 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2315, 2463, 2615/2756+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 2315/2445, targets 2081*, 2058*, 1972, 1916-.

#YM:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Last week, bulls defended 43615/43680 as a quick dip to 43497 was promptly recovered, allowing the bullish momentum to continue and hit the 44750 weekly resistance (44773 high) before pulling back on Friday.

Current Outlook:

  • Above 44400: Bulls maintain momentum.

  • Key Resistance to Reclaim: Bulls must reclaim 44750 to continue toward 45000 and all-time highs (ATH).

  • Critical Daily Support: 44355/44310 is the last line for bulls to defend.

  • Close Below 44310: A red day close below this level could signal further bearish pressure.

    • Below 44310: A quick dip to 44195/44165 with a fast recovery of 44320 could reignite a bullish leg.

    • If 44195 Fails on Daily Chart: 43680/43345 becomes the next downside targets.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 44400/44355 and reclaim 44750 to resume testing 44985, 45050, and ATH+.

  • An hourly or 4-hour close above 44685 signals bullish intent to reclaim 44750.

Big Picture:

  • If 44310 Holds or Is Reclaimed on Daily Chart: Targets include 44810, 44985, 45050, and ATH+.

  • If 44195 Fails on Daily Chart: Downside targets include 43680, 43345, and 42800-.

Support Levels:

  • Intraday: 44530, 44400, 44340*.

  • Daily: 44310*, 44240/44165*, 43680.

  • Weekly: 43680*, 43320, 42810.

  • Monthly: 42810*, 41970/41790*, 40350/40030*.

  • Yearly: 40330*/41260, 40100/39335, 37900.

Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday: 44635, 44750*, 44810, 44910.

  • Daily: 44810, 44985*, 45155*.

  • Weekly: 44810, 45155*, 45355.

  • Monthly: 45050/45095, 45355, 47440.

  • Yearly: 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 41790/40100 holds or is reclaimed, targets 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 44485/45050, targets 41790/40100/37870-.

Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:

Uptrend to Downtrend:

  1. Fail key support levels.

  2. Reject first support in back tests.

  3. Sell-the-rally mania.

  4. Breakdowns with staying power.

  5. Form lower highs & lows.

Downtrend to Uptrend:

  1. Claim key resistance levels.

  2. Hold second support in pullbacks.

  3. Buy-the-dip frenzy.

  4. Breakouts with staying power.

  5. Form higher highs & lows.

Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:

  1. Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.

  2. Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)

  3. Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.

  4. Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).

  5. Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Plan Your Trades with ChatGPT]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/plan-your-trades-with-chatgpthttps://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/plan-your-trades-with-chatgptMon, 20 Jan 2025 14:06:01 GMTIf you’re a trader, you know the value of a solid trading plan. It’s your map, your compass, and your life raft when the markets do its thing.

But creating one from scratch every day or week?

That can be a grind. Enter ChatGPT.

Let me show you how to use this nifty AI to create personalized trade plans using my own methodology and format.

Spoiler: It’s not just for futures—you can adapt it to stocks, ETFs, cryptos, or whatever you trade.

Here’s a step-by-step guide with example prompts and responses to help you get started.

Step 1: Tell ChatGPT What Role to Play

To get the best results, start by telling ChatGPT to act as your experienced, consistently successful futures trader who will guide you through your trade validation process.

User Prompt:

"You are an experienced, consistently successful futures trader.

I want you to understand my trading method, and I'll provide daily level readings. As an expert, I’d like you to create the day’s trading plan based on my format.

This will be an interactive process. After each step, you’ll confirm that you understand the instructions and data, and are ready for the next step.

I will ask you to remember my trading method as "MyTradingNQMethod" and the trading plan format as "MyDailyNQTradePlan" so we can refer to them daily when preparing the trading plan.

Please confirm if you understand, and feel free to ask any clarifying questions if needed."

ChatGPT Response:

I understand your instructions. You want me to prepare a daily trading plan based on your method, using the levels you provide, in the format you specified. We will go through the process interactively, and I’ll confirm each step before moving forward. I’ll remember your trading method as "MyTradingNQMethod" and the daily plan format as "MyDailyNQTradePlan" Let me know if you're ready to proceed!

This establishes the context for your session and ensures that ChatGPT responds as a knowledgeable trading mentor.

Step 2: Share Your Trading Method

Start by jotting down your trading method. Be detailed, but don’t worry—it doesn’t mind reading long texts! This includes:

  • How you confirm entries (e.g., candle closes, breakout retests).

  • Your stop-loss and target guidelines.

  • Position sizing rules.

  • Timeframes for setups and entries.

  • Special rules for trailing stops and partial exits.

Here’s an example of a concise trading method you can share with ChatGPT:

User Prompt: "Here’s my trading method:

  • Use 15m/hourly candles for intraday setups.

  • Target a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio.

  • For #NQ trades, use 20-25 point stop losses for intraday trades and target 40-50 points.

  • Can you remember this as 'MyTradingNQMethod'?"

ChatGPT Response: "Got it! Your trading method is now saved as 'MyTradingNQMethod.' I’ll apply this methodology whenever you request trading plans. Let me know if you want to refine or add details."

The more details, nuances, and exceptions you share about your method, the better the trading plan ChatGPT can create.

Step 3: Define Your Trading Plan Format

Next, Decide what your trade plan looks like. Mine, for instance, includes:

  1. Intraday Long and Short Trades (Breakout, Rejection, Support Hold).

  2. Swing Long and Short Trades.

  3. A summary table with trade types, entry levels, SLs, targets, and reward-to-risk ratios.

Share this structure you want for your trading plan with ChatGPT.

User Prompt: "Here’s my trading plan format:

  1. Two Intraday Long Trades (Breakout, Support Hold)

  2. Two Intraday Short Trades (Breakdown, Resistance Rejection)

  3. One Swing Long Trade

  4. One Swing Short Trade

Each trade must include entry, stop-loss, targets, total points, and reward-to-risk ratios. Add a summary table for clarity. Call this format 'MyDailyNQTradePlan.' Can you remember it?"

ChatGPT Response: "Understood! I’ve saved your trading plan format as 'MyDailyNQTradePlan.' Each plan will follow this structure, including clear tables and details as requested."

Step 4: Provide Key Levels for the Day

Once your method and format are saved, supply the day’s levels and ask ChatGPT to generate a plan.

User Prompt:

"Here are today’s levels for #NQ:

  • Intra-day supports: 21560, 21500/480, 21345*, 21230, 21180*

  • Daily supports: 21230/210*, 21000/20930, 20805*

  • Weekly supports: 21210*, 21000*/20930, 20510*/405*

  • Intra-day resistances: 21625/660*, 21710, 21770/810*

  • Daily resistances: 21810*/900*, 22000, 22135

  • Weekly resistances: 21750*, 21900*, 22080

  • Use 'MyTradingNQMethod' and 'MyDailyNQTradePlan' to create today’s trading plan."

ChatGPT Response: "Here’s your trading plan for #NQ:

Key Levels Summary

  • Intra-day Supports: 21560, 21500/480, 21345*, 21230, 21180*

  • Intra-day Resistances: 21625/660*, 21710, 21770/810*

  • Daily Supports: 21230/210*, 21000/20930, 20805*

  • Daily Resistances: 21810*/900*, 22000, 22135

  • Weekly Supports: 21210*, 21000*/20930, 20510*/405*

  • Weekly Resistances: 21750*, 21900*, 22080

1. Intraday Long Trades

a. Breakout Long

  • Entry Level: Above 21660

  • Stop-Loss: 21635 (-25 points)

  • Targets:

    • Target 1: 21710 (+50 points, R:R 2:1)

    • Target 2: 21770 (+110 points, R:R 4.4:1)

    • Target 3: 21810 (+150 points, R:R 6:1)

  • Position Sizing: Start with 4 contracts.

    • Close 2 at T1, 1 at T2, 1 at T3.

  • Trailing Stop: After T1, move SL to breakeven. Trail by 20 points.

b. Hold Momentum at Support

  • Entry Level: Near 21500

  • Stop-Loss: 21475 (-25 points)

  • Targets:

    • Target 1: 21560 (+60 points, R:R 2.4:1)

    • Target 2: 21625 (+125 points, R:R 5:1)

    • Target 3: 21660 (+160 points, R:R 6.4:1)

  • Position Sizing: Start with 4 contracts.

    • Close 2 at T1, 1 at T2, 1 at T3.

  • Trailing Stop: After T1, move SL to breakeven. Trail by 20 points.

2. Intraday Short Trades

a. Breakdown Short

  • Entry Level: Below 21500

  • Stop-Loss: 21525 (-25 points)

  • Targets:

    • Target 1: 21480 (+20 points, R:R 0.8:1)

    • Target 2: 21345 (+155 points, R:R 6.2:1)

    • Target 3: 21230 (+270 points, R:R 10.8:1)

  • Position Sizing: Start with 4 contracts.

    • Close 2 at T1, 1 at T2, 1 at T3.

  • Trailing Stop: After T1, move SL to breakeven. Trail by 20 points.

b. Rejection at Resistance

  • Entry Level: Near 21660

  • Stop-Loss: 21685 (-25 points)

  • Targets:

    • Target 1: 21625 (+35 points, R:R 1.4:1)

    • Target 2: 21560 (+100 points, R:R 4:1)

    • Target 3: 21500 (+160 points, R:R 6.4:1)

  • Position Sizing: Start with 4 contracts.

    • Close 2 at T1, 1 at T2, 1 at T3.

  • Trailing Stop: After T1, move SL to breakeven. Trail by 20 points.

3. Swing Trades

a. Swing Long

  • Entry Level: Near 21230

  • Stop-Loss: 21200 (-30 points)

  • Targets:

    • Target 1: 21345 (+115 points, R:R 3.83:1)

    • Target 2: 21500 (+270 points, R:R 9:1)

    • Target 3: 21625 (+395 points, R:R 13.17:1)

  • Position Sizing: Start with 4 contracts.

    • Close 2 at T1, 1 at T2, 1 at T3.

  • Trailing Stop: After T1, move SL to breakeven. Trail by 30 points.

b. Swing Short

  • Entry Level: Near 21770

  • Stop-Loss: 21800 (-30 points)

  • Targets:

    • Target 1: 21660 (+110 points, R:R 3.67:1)

    • Target 2: 21560 (+210 points, R:R 7:1)

    • Target 3: 21345 (+425 points, R:R 14.17:1)

  • Position Sizing: Start with 4 contracts.

    • Close 2 at T1, 1 at T2, 1 at T3.

  • Trailing Stop: After T1, move SL to breakeven. Trail by 30 points.

5. Fine-Tune and Iterate

ChatGPT isn’t perfect. Sometimes, it misses a point or messes up a calculation. Be ready to review its output and refine your prompts. Think of it like teaching a bright student—you’ll need patience and clarity. Be specific about what’s missing or incorrect. For instance:

User Feedback: "You missed adding notes about using lower timeframes for better risk/reward entries. Please revise."

ChatGPT Response: "Apologies! I’ve updated the plan with notes on using lower timeframes to refine entries after breakouts for better risk:reward ratios"

6. Adapt for Any Asset or Strategy

This method isn’t limited to futures. Use it for stocks, ETFs, crypto, or any asset class. Want to use someone else’s method? No problem—just adjust your methodology and plan format accordingly.

Final Thoughts

Remember, it’s a tool— your assistant not your guru or substitute for your judgment. Use it wisely, and it’ll save you time while keeping you disciplined. Always review the plans, refine prompts, and adapt as needed.

After all, even ChatGPT is a work in progress—just like your trading skills!

Try using ChatGPT to create a trade plan based on your method or one you follow and share your experience!

Did you learn something new? Was it helpful?

Let me know in the comments—and don’t forget to like and restack and repost on social media!

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 1/20- 1/24]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-120-124https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-120-124Sun, 19 Jan 2025 18:34:39 GMT

Keeping this newsletter short and sweet—but I think you’ll find it actionable and helpful for your trading!

Key points:

  • Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).

    • If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.

  • Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.

    • If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.

I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

Last week played out just as expected! Here's a quick recap:

  • Sunday/Monday downside hit the exact targets/support levels I posted.

  • As mentioned last week, if those levels were tested before any upside move, they were likely to hold—and they did!

  • Like I said: "If these key levels are tested and we see a quick bounce that holds for an hour/4hr/day, those levels are likely to hold."

  • Sure enough, the market held those key support levels all week, right where a bounce was expected.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (1/20 – 1/24)

  • Thursday and Friday bring the usual economic reports, including key Unemployment Claims and PMI.

  • Last week, markets hit both key support and resistance levels. Now comes the tricky part—continuation, sideways, or reversal?

    Here’s my take:

    • If Friday’s open/low prices hold, the bias stays bullish for upside continuation.

    • If they fail, expect sideways or reversal action bringing back test of downside targets in play

  • Sunday/Monday price action will be key (even with RTH markets closed Monday) - JMO

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES

  • Bullish above 6018/5994, Bearish below 5969

  • Bulls still need to reclaim 6048 to take control from bears and confidently push higher.

  • Claiming 6068 would provide confirmation of bullish strength.

#NQ

  • Bullish above 21345, Bearish below 21210

  • Bulls still need to reclaim 21810 to take control from bears and confidently push higher.

  • Claiming 21900 would provide confirmation of bullish strength.

#RTY

  • Bullish above 2284/80, Bearish below 2274

  • Bulls still need to reclaim 2305 to take control from bears and confidently push higher.

  • Claiming 2310/14 would provide confirmation of bullish strength.

#YM

  • Bullish above 43615, Bearish below 43320

  • Bulls still need to reclaim 43750 to take control from bears and confidently push higher.

  • Claiming 43960 would provide confirmation of bullish strength.

#SI

  • Bullish above 30.96/30.60, Bearish below 30.58

  • Bulls still weak < 31.65

  • 31.60, 32.60, 33+ in play as long 30.60 holds/reclaimed

  • Daily close above 31.65 needed to continuation toward 33/34/35+

#GC

  • Bullish above 2722, Bearish below 2720

  • Last week reclaimed 2684 and hit key resistance 2759 (2759.2 high) & pulled back

  • Third touch or second attempt to reclaim. So far showing rejection hence holding 2722 & claiming 2759 key for Bullish continuation

  • If 2720 fails, could bring 2698/2694/2685- as back test targets

  • Bulls control > 2684, & brings 2759/2790/2850+ in play

#PL

  • Bullish above 942, Bearish below 939

  • Bulls weak < 995

  • As wrote for many weeks now price is coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout or breakdown needed for bigger moves.

  • Last month's low 907 & now back to 992 towards 1012/1035/1050/1065+

  • Bulls need to claim 970/995 to keep upside in play if 939 fails, 910- likely retest target

#PA

  • Bullish above 950, Bearish below 944

  • Bulls weak < 990 need to claim 990 to bring 1040/1050+ in play

  • Last month held 896 monthly support & this month low 904 & bounced

  • Bears lose control step by step 968 → 990 → 1025

  • Now 944 is critical level for bulls to defend and keep in play and reclaim 990/1010/1040

#CL

  • Bulls hit 80.15 and almost 80.80 (high 80.77) but pulled back sharply.

  • Bulls need to defend 77.25 or 76.70/76.55 to keep 79.15, 80.50, 81.35+ in play.

  • If 76.54 fails: likely retest 74.29/73.30.

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Bulls needed daily closes above 5951, 5975, and 6048/6068 last week.

  • Price hit 6048 (high: 6051) but didn’t close above 6036 or 6051, which were key levels from a zoomed-out perspective. This leaves slight hesitation about the strength of the bullish move.

Current Outlook:

  • If the low of the Friday's candle holds, 6095, 6108 and 6155+ are in play.

  • The breakout above the downtrend line keeps 5969 as solid support. Losing this level could shift momentum back to bears bringing 5900/5884/5861- in play.

  • A close above 6048, even on the hourly or 4-hour chart, would signal stronger bullish commitment and increase confidence in testing higher levels.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls hold 5994 as support and quickly reclaim 6048 to target 6100/6155.

Big Picture

  • If 6036/6051 reclaimed on the daily: Targets 6105, 6127, 6153*, 6192*+.

  • If 5865 fails on the daily: Targets 5745/32 with 5820/15 as intermediate levels.

Support Levels

  • Intra-day support: 6017, 5994, 5969, 5960/52

  • Daily supports: 5968*, 5900*/5884*, 5861*

  • Weekly supports: 5930/5900*, 5861*, 5814*

  • Monthly supports: 5900/5865, 5745/25*, 5656/26*

  • Yearly supports: 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day resistance: 6048*, 6065/68*, 6083

  • Daily resistances: 6028/48*, 6068*, 6095*/6108

  • Weekly resistances: 6068, 6108*, 6127*

  • Monthly resistances: 6051, 6153*/90, 6248

  • Yearly resistances: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#NQ:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Bulls needed daily closes above 21380, 21550, and 21810/21900 last week.

  • Price hit a high of 21682 and closed above 21550, but hasn’t tested or claimed 21810/21900 yet. This leaves some hesitation about the bullish move despite a strong green daily candle.

Current Outlook:

  • Above 21345, bulls keep momentum from Friday

  • If Friday’s low holds, 21900, 22000, and 22200+ are in play.

  • The breakout above the downtrend line reinforces the 21210 key support. Losing this level would likely shift momentum back to bears, bringing 21000, 20930, 20800- in play

  • A close above 21650 on the 4-hour chart would show stronger commitment and increase the likelihood of further upside.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 21500/21480 and quickly reclaim 21810 to resume testing 22000/22200+.

Big Picture

  • Bullish if 21810 is reclaimed on daily: Targets 22080, 22310, 650*, 23230+.

  • Bearish until 21810 is claimed on the daily: Targets 20510/405- with 21000/20940 as intermediate levels to watch.

Support Levels

  • Intra-day supports: 21560, 21500/480, 21345*, 21230, 21180*

  • Daily supports: 21230/210*, 21000/20930, 20805*

  • Weekly supports: 21210*, 21000*/20930, 20510*/405*

  • Monthly supports: 20940*, 20070*/20010*, 19800*

  • Yearly supports: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day resistances: 21625/660*, 21710, 21770/810*

  • Daily resistances: 21810*/900*, 22000, 22135

  • Weekly resistances: 21750*, 21900*, 22080

  • Monthly resistances: 21900, 22425/525, 23200

  • Yearly resistances: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#RTY:


Key Levels Recap:

  • Bulls needed daily closes above 2255, 2278, and 2305/2310 last week.

  • Price hit a high of 2307.75 but couldn’t close above 2305. The daily green candle was decent but not fully convincing.

Current Outlook:

  • Above 2280, bulls keep momentum from Friday

  • If Friday’s low holds, 2305/2310/2314, 2336, and 2364+ are in play.

  • 2274 is critical support. Losing this level could shift momentum back to bears, opening the path to 2236, 2222/2208, and possibly 2196-.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 2280 and quickly reclaim 2305 to target 2314/2336, 2364, and 2383+.

  • A close above 2305 on the hourly or 4-hour chart would show stronger commitment and reinforce the bullish move.

Big Picture

  • Bullish if 2310 is claimed on the daily: Targets 2363, 2386, 95+.

  • Bearish if 2181 fails to hold on the daily: Targets 2133, 2101*/2091-.

Support Levels

  • Intra-day supports: 2284/2280*, 2274, 2270/67

  • Daily supports: 2274*, 2240/36*, 2222/2208*

  • Weekly supports: 2235, 2196*, 2172*

  • Monthly supports: 2194/2181*, 2068/2033*, 1983

  • Yearly supports: 2194/2181*, 2058*, 1972*

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day resistances: 2291/96, 2305*, 2310/2314

  • Daily resistances: 2310/2314*, 2364, 2394*

  • Weekly resistances: 2305*/2314*, 2373, 2405*

  • Monthly resistances: 2260, 2315*, 2435/45*

  • Yearly resistances: 2463, 2615/2756, 3000

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 2181/2058 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2315, 2463, 2615/2756+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 2315/2445, targets 2081*, 2058*, 1972, 1916-.

#YM:

Key Levels Recap:

  • Bulls needed daily closes above 42905, 43380, and 43750 last week.

  • Price reached a high of 43866 but couldn’t close above 43750. Still, the daily green candle was solid.

Current Outlook:

  • Above 43615, bulls keep momentum from Friday

  • If Friday’s low holds, 43750/43960, 44230, and 44490+ are in play.

  • 43320 is key support. Losing this level could shift momentum back to bears, targeting 42810, 42565, and 42210-.

Ideal Bullish Scenario:

  • Bulls defend 43615/43480 and reclaim 43775 to resume testing 43850/43960, 44230, and 44490+.

  • A close above 43775 on the hourly or 4-hour chart would confirm stronger bullish commitment.

Big Picture

  • Bullish if 43750 is claimed on the daily: Targets 43970*, 44150, 44240*, 44485+.

  • Bearish if 43000 fails to hold on the daily: Targets 42000, 41970**, 41790- (currently in play).

Support Levels

  • Intra-day supports: 43660/615*, 43535/43480*, 43385

  • Daily supports: 43320*, 42940/810*, 42565*/520*

  • Weekly supports: 42750*, 42000*, 41790*

  • Monthly supports: 41970**/41790*, 40350*/40030, 39590*

  • Yearly supports: 40330*/41260, 40100/39335, 37900

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day resistances: 43730/775*, 43875, 43960*

  • Daily resistances: 43960, 44230*, 44490*

  • Weekly resistances: 44750, 44305/485*, 44750*

  • Monthly resistances: 43410, 44220, 45050/45095

  • Yearly resistances: 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 41790/40100 holds or is reclaimed, targets 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 44485/45050, targets 41790/40100/37870-.

Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:

Uptrend to Downtrend:

  1. Fail key support levels.

  2. Reject first support in back tests.

  3. Sell-the-rally mania.

  4. Breakdowns with staying power.

  5. Form lower highs & lows.

Downtrend to Uptrend:

  1. Claim key resistance levels.

  2. Hold second support in pullbacks.

  3. Buy-the-dip frenzy.

  4. Breakouts with staying power.

  5. Form higher highs & lows.

Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:

  1. Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.

  2. Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)

  3. Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.

  4. Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).

  5. Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[ChatGPT as Interactive Trade Checklist]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/chatgpt-as-interactive-trade-checklisthttps://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/chatgpt-as-interactive-trade-checklistMon, 13 Jan 2025 14:21:52 GMTOne of the key differences between consistently successful traders and those who struggle is discipline. Successful traders follow structured plans, execute their trades with precision, and always validate their setups before taking a position. One of the best ways to maintain this discipline is by using a trade entry checklist.

But what if you could take your checklist to the next level? Instead of running through a static list of questions, what if you had an interactive checklist that walks you through your trade plan in real-time and forces you to double-check every key element before pulling the trigger?

This is where ChatGPT comes in. You can use ChatGPT as your interactive trade validation assistant, ensuring you follow your plan before entering any trade like #ES or #NQ.

Let’s break down how you can set this up and use it effectively.

Step 1: Tell ChatGPT What Role to Play

To get the best results, start by telling ChatGPT to act as your experienced, consistently successful futures trader who will guide you through your trade validation process.

Example Prompt:

"You are an experienced, consistently successful futures trader. Your role is to act as my interactive trade checklist before I take any #ES or #NQ trade. Ask me questions one by one to confirm my trade setup."

This establishes the context for your session and ensures that ChatGPT responds as a knowledgeable trading mentor.

Step 2: Provide Your Trading Method to ChatGPT

To get the most out of ChatGPT, you need to first share your trading methodology. This includes your entry rules, stop-loss guidelines, profit targets, and different trade setups.

Here’s an example of what you can tell ChatGPT:

"I trade #ES and #NQ using intraday and swing levels. My setups include breakout trades, support holds, and resistance rejections. I use a 3-5 points for #ES & 20-25 points for #NQ stop loss for intraday trades and aim for a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio."

This gives ChatGPT the context it needs to guide you through your trade entry process based on your own strategy.

Step 3: Ask ChatGPT for an Interactive Checklist

Once ChatGPT knows your trading methodology, you can ask it to act as your interactive trade checklist. This means it will ask you a series of targeted questions, one at a time, to validate your trade idea.

Example Prompt:

"I’m going long #NQ at 15,250. Act as my trading checklist and ask me one question at a time to confirm this trade."

With this prompt, ChatGPT will start asking questions based on your trading rules.

Step 4: Respond to ChatGPT’s Questions One by One

Here’s how the conversation might go:

You:

I’m going long #ES at 4500.

ChatGPT:

Have you confirmed this level from your trading plan? If yes, is this a breakout long or a momentum support hold entry?

You:

It’s a breakout long.

ChatGPT:

Has the 15-minute or hourly candle closed above the breakout level? Or are you anticipating the breakout?

You:

Yes, the 15-minute candle closed above.

ChatGPT:

What’s your stop-loss and first profit target? Are you following your rule of a 3-5 point SL for intraday trades?

You:

Stop-loss is at 4497, and my first target is 4510.

ChatGPT:

Great. Are you planning to take partial profits at the first target, or hold for the next target?

Why This Works

Using an interactive trade checklist has several advantages:

  • Keeps You Disciplined: It forces you to slow down and think through your trade setup, preventing impulsive entries.

  • Validates Your Setup: ChatGPT will ensure you’re following your plan step by step, including entry levels, stop-losses, and targets.

  • Reduces Emotional Trading: When you’re in the heat of the moment, emotions can take over. ChatGPT acts as your accountability partner to keep you on track.

  • Increases Consistency: Consistent execution is the key to long-term success in trading. An interactive checklist ensures you’re following the same process every time.

Customize the Checklist for Your Trading Style

One of the best things about using ChatGPT as your checklist is that you can customize it to fit your specific trading market and style. For example:

  • Breakout vs. Rejection Trades: ChatGPT can ask different questions depending on whether you’re entering on a breakout or a rejection at resistance.

  • Intraday vs. Swing Trades: You can adjust your prompts to account for different timeframes and stop-loss levels.

  • Long vs. Short Positions: ChatGPT can adapt its questions based on the direction of your trade.

Example Questions for Different Trade Types:

Breakout Long Entry:

  • Has the candle closed above the breakout level?

  • Is there room to your first target?

  • Are you following your stop-loss rule?

Rejection Short Entry:

  • Is this a confirmed rejection at resistance?

  • Did the next candle confirm the rejection?

  • Are you prepared for a quick exit if price action shows strength?

Example Interactive Trade Validation Flow

Here’s a full example of how an interactive checklist might look:

You:

I’m shorting #NQ at 15,320.

ChatGPT:

Is this a breakdown short or a rejection at resistance short?

You:

Rejection at resistance.

ChatGPT:

Did you see a red rejection candle at resistance? Or was there a failed breakout?

You:

Yes, the breakout failed, and the next candle turned red.

ChatGPT:

Great. What’s your stop-loss and first profit target?

You:

Stop-loss is at 15,340, and my first target is 15,280.

ChatGPT:

Are you prepared to move your stop-loss to breakeven if your first target is hit?

Final Thoughts

Using ChatGPT as your interactive trade checklist can make a big difference in your trading discipline and consistency. Here’s why:

  1. It keeps you accountable.

  2. It forces you to validate your trade ideas.

  3. It reduces emotional decision-making.

  4. It helps you follow your plan.

Next time you’re about to enter a trade, let ChatGPT act as your accountability partner. Simply tell it your trade idea, and it will walk you through the checklist step by step.

Why don’t you give it a try? 🚀

]]><![CDATA[Breakdown Short Strategy]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/breakdown-short-strategyhttps://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/breakdown-short-strategyMon, 13 Jan 2025 05:09:16 GMTHow It Works and When to Use It

The Breakdown Short is a powerful strategy that involves shorting when price fails to hold a key support level. But here’s the catch — not all breakdowns are created equal. The success of this strategy largely depends on context and market structure.

Breakdowns are most effective when support has already been tested multiple times and buyers have been weakened. If you try to short a breakdown on the first test of support, especially after a strong downward move, you're walking into a high-risk trap. Why? Because first tests of key support often lead to bounces rather than clean breaks.

Instead, the best Breakdown Short setups happen after a lower high has formed and the market shows signs of a bearish trend. This setup confirms that buyers are running out of steam, increasing the chances that support will fail on a second or third test.

In short:
➡️ First test of support? Expect a bounce.
➡️ Lower high before breakdown? Now we're talking.
➡️ Second or third test of support? High probability short.

Let’s break down when and how to use this strategy to maximize edge.

1. What is a Breakdown Short?

A Breakdown Short happens when price fails to hold a key support level and breaks below it. It’s an entry strategy that bets on continued downside momentum once buyers lose control.

Think of support as a floor that keeps price from falling. When the floor collapses, price usually drops quickly as buyers panic and sellers pile in.

How to Spot a Breakdown Short Entry on a Clean Candlestick Chart:

Here’s how you spot a Breakdown Short without using any indicators:

  1. Price approaches a key support level.

  2. Green candles turn into red candles as price reaches support.

  3. A full red candle closes below the support level.

  4. Next candle confirms the breakdown by staying below support.

2. Key Clues to Confirm a Breakdown:

You need two key confirmations to ensure the breakdown is valid:

  1. A Full Candle Close Below Support

    • The first sign of a breakdown is when a full red candle closes below the support level.

    • A wick below support is not enough — you need the candle body to close below support.

  2. Continuation in the Next Candle

    • The next candle should stay below support to confirm that buyers have failed to reclaim the level.

    • If the next candle is weak green or another red candle, it confirms that sellers are in control.

    • Next candle confirmation is optional in case of rug-pull or depending on where breakdown candle closed, how larget that previous candle been etc.

3. Entry, Stop-Loss, and Targets for a Breakdown Short

Here’s how you set up your trade:

4. What Does a Good Breakdown Short Look Like?

Here’s what to watch for when the breakdown is valid:

  1. No Strong Bounce Back After Breakdown

    • Once support breaks, price should stay below that level.

    • If price bounces back above support, the breakdown might fail.

  2. Multiple Red Candles After the Breakdown

    • A valid breakdown is often followed by several red candles.

    • If the next candles are weak green bounces, it’s still safe to hold the short.

  3. Retest of Broken Support That Fails

    • Sometimes, after the breakdown, price will retest the broken support.

    • If the retest fails and price rejects again, it’s a great opportunity to add to your short position.

5. Scenarios:

1. Breakdown After Support Test → Bounce to Resistance → Failure to Hold Support (First Scenario)

Setup:

  • Support Test: Price tests a support level (e.g., 5930) and then bounces up towards a resistance level.

  • Bounce to Resistance: The price moves up and reaches resistance (e.g., 5959), where it rejects and starts coming back down.

  • Failure to Hold Support: As price retraces downward, it fails to hold the previously tested support (5930) and breaks through, signaling the continuation of the downtrend.

Ideal Market Conditions:

  • This setup is more effective in a strong downtrend, where previous support levels are likely to break after being tested.

  • The bounce to resistance provides a confirmation that the level is now acting as resistance, and when support fails to hold, it gives a strong entry for a short trade.

  • It works well when the market shows signs of weakness, and price is unable to hold the support level, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Why It Works:

  • The rejection at resistance and subsequent failure to hold support indicate that buyers are not strong enough to push price higher, while sellers are gaining control.

  • The breakdown through the support level suggests that the market sentiment is shifting bearish, with no demand at the lower level.

2. Breakdown from Below → Retest from the Bottom → Rejection (Second Scenario)

Setup:

  • Price initially breaks below a support level (e.g., 5930).

  • After the breakdown, the price retests the level (e.g. 5920) from below (acting as resistance) and rejects it.

  • The rejection confirms that the support is no longer valid, and price will likely continue downward.

Ideal Market Conditions:

  • This scenario is best in a strong downtrend where price is moving aggressively lower.

  • The initial breakdown of support shows that sellers are in control, and the retest from below confirms that the level is now acting as resistance.

Why It Works:

  • The failure to reclaim the support level during the retest signals continued selling pressure.

  • The second rejection confirms that the market is not interested in higher prices, leading to further downside movement.

In the first scenario, if you're already short when the resistance is rejected at the support level, you have three options:

  1. Close Entire Short Position if the price bounces, indicating that the support may hold.

  2. Close Partial Short Position and Add to the Short if the candle closes below the support level, confirming a breakdown. You would move the stop-loss closer to the high of the entry candle.

  3. Close Partial Short Position and Wait for Further Confirmation if price moves in a sideways or uncertain direction, giving you more time to decide on the next move.

In the second scenario, you’re more likely to initiate a new short position after the support fails and price retests from below, rejecting the level as resistance. This provides a confirmation for a strong short entry.

6. Are Failed Breakdown More Likely If It's the First Test?

The answer is YES. Breakdown shorts have a higher chance of failure if it's the first test of a major support level that price approaches with momentum. Here's why:

Understanding First-Time Support Tests:

When price reaches a key support level for the first time, especially after a sharp drop or strong momentum move, it's likely to bounce rather than break. This is because:

  1. Fresh Buy Orders:
    Major support levels usually have lots of buy orders sitting there from traders who’ve identified the level as key. These orders act as a demand wall that absorbs selling pressure.

  2. Profit-Taking by Shorts:
    If the market sells off hard into support, many traders who shorted earlier will look to cover their positions at that key level, creating buying pressure.

  3. Overextended Conditions:
    A momentum-driven drop into support often leaves the market oversold, making a bounce more likely.

  4. Psychological Effect:
    Key levels (e.g., round numbers or previously defended levels) are psychological anchors. Traders expect them to hold the first time around, reinforcing the bounce.

When Do Breakdown Shorts Work Best?

Breakdown shorts are more reliable when:

  • Support has been tested multiple times. (at least one)

  • There’s less bounce after each test, showing buyers are weakening.

  • Lower highs have already formed before the breakdown attempt.

  • The overall market is in a clear downtrend.

If the first test of support fails to break but bounces weakly into resistance (creating a lower high), That’s when you want to consider a Breakdown Short on the next attempts at that level.

Red Flags for Failed Breakdown Shorts:

  • First test of a key support level.

  • Sharp drop into support with no prior consolidation. (maybe handled as rug-pull scenario which will be covered separately)

  • Support level is widely recognized (psychologically significant).

  • Market is not in a downtrend (e.g., sideways or uptrend conditions).

What to Do Instead?

In cases where price reaches support for the first time with momentum, it’s usually smarter to wait for a bounce and look for a Rejection Short at resistance. Then, if price fails to hold support on a second or subsequent test, you can take the Breakdown Short.

7. What if the Breakdown Fails?

Sometimes, support breaks temporarily, but buyers reclaim the level. A candle close below support followed immediately by green candle cosing above signals possible failed breakdown. If resistance level (from where recent move down started) is claimed, failed breakdown is confirmed. Here’s how to manage it:

  1. Use a Stop-Loss Above the Broken Support Level

    • Keep your stop-loss tight — for example, 3-5 points for intraday trades and 10-15 points for swing trades for #ES and 20-25 points & 30-35 points for intraday & swing trades for #NQ

  2. Wait for a Retest and Rejection

    • If the breakdown fails, wait for a retest of resistance and look for a rejection short.

    • This often happens after a false breakdown traps weak shorts.

Summary:

Example:

Key support levels for the week of January 6th, 2025 were 5930 and 5920.

5930 held four times on the hourly chart, while 5920 held twice before failing to hold on the 15-minute chart during the third attempt.

Each time support held, there was a backtest to the start of the move, which then rejected and pushed the price back down to retest the key support levels.

As the 4-hour and daily charts showed lower highs and lows, the downtrend was clear. Despite this, 5930 and 5920 held for a longer period, raising hopes for a bullish move. However, the key resistance at 5959/5962 was never broken during multiple attempts to retest it.

Ultimately, price rejected resistance and failed to hold 5920, quickly flushing lower and continuing the daily bearish trend.


#ES 4Hr chart from same week

1Hr Chart of same time frame

15min Chart of same time frame

]]><![CDATA[Rejection Short]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/rejection-shorthttps://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/rejection-shortMon, 13 Jan 2025 02:53:17 GMT1. What is a Rejection Short?

The Rejection Short works best in uptrend or sideways markets when price moves to resistance levels.

This strategy involves shorting when price moves to a key resistance level, rejects it, and goes lower. It’s a great way to capitalize on temporary pullbacks without getting caught in a strong bullish trend.

Why It Works:

  • In an uptrend, resistance rejection can offer short entries that align with short-term pullbacks. Even in an uptrend, price will encounter periods of consolidation or retracements before continuing upward.

  • In a sideways market, the rejection at resistance confirms that the level is holding, and price is likely to revert back toward the support levels in the range.

  • Usually first attempt for breakout fails. This is ideal entry for short term pullback (rejection short) entry.

Setup:

Look for rejection at key resistance levels using these two scenarios:

1. Red Rejection Candle at Resistance

Entry:

  • Look for a red candlestick near resistance:

    1. Ideal Entry: A red candle near the resistance level.

    2. Alternative: A long upper wick (even if it's a green candle), showing that buyers are struggling to push higher.

    3. The next candle should confirm the rejection by staying below the resistance level.

Stop Loss:

  • Place your stop loss above the high of the rejection candle.

Profit Target:

  • Target the next support levels.

  • Trail your stop after the first target is hit, adjusting to lock in profits.

  • Keep in mind that this is a short trade in uptrend/sideways market so take profit quickly and trail stop

2. Failed Breakout at Resistance

Entry:

  • Price breaks above the resistance level briefly but then quickly turns red in the next candle, showing the breakout attempt has failed. Essentially a green candle claims key resistance but immediately next candle turns red.

  • Enter near the resistance level after the red candle forms.

Stop Loss:

  • Place your stop loss above the high of the red candle that formed after the failed breakout.

Profit Target:

  • Set your profit target at the next support levels.

  • As the price moves in your favor, consider trailing your stop to lock in profits.

  • Keep in mind that this is a short trade in uptrend/sideways market so take profit quickly and trail stop

Key Clues to Confirm a Rejection:

  • Red rejection candle at resistance.

  • Long upper wick indicates failed buyers.

  • Green candle closing above resistance level immediately followed by red candle

  • Next candle must confirm by staying below the resistance level.

Entry, Stop-Loss, and Targets for Rejection Short

Counter-Trend Rejection Short: Key Guidelines

Note in an uptrend, shorting at resistance is a counter-trend trade, so caution is key. Here's how to manage it effectively:

  1. Quicker Profit-Taking:

    • Take profits faster than usual, especially on the first target.

    • For example, close 50% of the position at the first support level.

  2. Flexible Mindset:

    • If price shows strength after entering the short (e.g., green candle close above the resistance level or hit a stop loss), be ready to close the short and flip to long.

  3. Stop Loss Adjustments:

    • Trail your stop loss closer to breakeven once the price moves in your favor to reduce risk.

This approach ensures you're locking in gains quickly and staying adaptable in case the uptrend resumes.

Conclusion:

For an uptrend or sideways market, the best short strategies focus on reversals rather than breakdowns. Look for rejection at key resistance levels, and intraday price action signals that suggest a pullback or trend exhaustion. These strategies work best when momentum shows signs of weakening at resistance or after price fails to continue breaking higher.

Example:

[To be Added Later]

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 1/13- 1/17]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-113-117https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-113-117Sun, 12 Jan 2025 19:07:36 GMT

Keeping this newsletter short and sweet—but I think you’ll find it actionable and helpful for your trading!

Key points:

  • Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).

    • If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.

  • Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.

    • If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.

I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

  • Last week kicked off with bullish momentum from Friday and hit a few upside targets.

  • Monday closed green but failed to close above key resistance levels.

  • I missed recognizing the rejection at key resistance (like 6051 and 6036) and expected bullish continuation as long as Monday’s open (5995) held.

  • However, once supports failed, downside plays unfolded and continued hitting targets as identified.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I’m throwing around, like “hold”, “claim”, and “fail”

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (1/13 – 1/17)

  • Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday bring the usual economic reports, with PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, and Unemployment Claims on deck.

  • Ideally, bears test downside targets on Sunday/Monday before we see a stronger relief bounce.

  • As noted a couple of weeks ago, January tends to be a flat-to-red month. After #RTY, #YM, and #ES closed red in December, the ongoing weakness is no surprise.

  • Volatility remains high. Months of grinding rallies are getting wiped out in hours or days — classic bear action.

  • That said, prices are nearing key monthly/weekly support levels identified below, giving bulls a shot at a relief bounce.

  • Will it happen? No idea. What I do know: If key levels are tested and we get a quick bounce that holds for an hour, 4-hour, or daily close, those levels are likely to stick.

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Events Calendar :

Quick Summary:

#ES

  • Bullish above 5851, Bearish below 5851

  • Bears in control below 6068, Bounce Likely if Support Holds

#NQ

  • Bullish above 20990/940, Bearish below 20900

  • Bears in control below 21900, Bounce Likely if Support Holds

#RTY

  • Bullish above 2191, Bearish below 2191

  • Bears in control below 2310, Bounce Likely if Support Holds

#YM

  • Bullish above 42150, Bearish below 42150

  • Bears in control below 43750, Bounce Likely if Support Holds

#SI

  • Bullish above 31.20/30.15, Bearish below 31.04

  • Bulls weak below 31.65.

  • Targets: 31.60, 32.60, 33+ — in play as long as 30.70 holds.

  • Daily close above 31.65 needed for continuation towards 33/34/35+.

#GC

  • Bullish above 2711/2704, Bearish below 2684

  • Bulls control above 2684, with targets: 2714, 2759, 2790, 2850+ in play.

#PL

  • Bullish above 988/983, Bearish below 977

  • Wrote for many weeks “Coiling between 900–1090 for months — breakout or breakdown needed for bigger moves.”

  • Last month's low was 907; now back at 992, targeting 1012/1035/1050/1065+.

#PA

  • Bullish above 960, Bearish below 953

  • Bulls weak below 990; need to reclaim 990 to target 1040/1050+.

  • Last month held 896 as monthly support, with this month’s low at 904, bouncing from there.

  • Bears lose control step by step: 968 → 990 → 1025.

#CL

  • Bullish above 76.30/75.75, Bearish below 75.55

  • Bullish targets 77.5, 78.70, 79.15, 80+

  • Wrote for many weeks - “Bears lose control step by step: 70.5 → 71.5 → 73”

  • January 2nd, 73 was reclaimed, and price moved to hit 77.5 target before pulling back.

  • Weekly close > 76 marks key levels for bulls to defend. Failure to hold open/low of last week could return price to 70/69.4/68.40.

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Key Levels

  • Below 5940, bears keep momentum from Friday.

  • Bears control below 6068.

  • Bears lose control step by step: 5951 → 5975 → 6048*/68.

  • Targets: 5820/15, 5753, 5735 — in play as long as 5951 holds. Probability of this play decreases as bears reclaim levels above.

  • Bounce likely from 5820/15 if price dips further before testing 5951.

Big Picture

  • If 6036/6051 reclaimed on the daily: Targets 6105, 6127, 6153*, 6192*+.

  • If 5865 fails on the daily: Targets 5745/32 with 5820/15 as intermediate levels.

Support Levels

  • Intra-day support: 5851, 5841, 5820

  • Daily support: 5820*, 5755, 5725*

  • Weekly support: 5855, 5750/40, 5675/65

  • Monthly support: 5900/5865, 5745/25*, 5656/26*

  • Yearly support: 5405, 5246, 5005

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day resistance: 5883, 5907*, 5922*/5940*

  • Daily resistance: 5945/5951*, 5975, 6028/48*

  • Weekly resistance: 5995, 6030*/68, 6108*

  • Monthly resistance: 5951, 6051, 6138*/90

  • Yearly resistance: 6165/6460*, 6515/6640, 7300

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 5405/5246 holds, targets 6515, 7300+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 6051, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#NQ:

Key Levels

  • Below 21300/380, bears keep momentum from Friday.

  • Bears control below 21900.

  • Bears lose control step by step: 21380 → 21550 → 21810*/900.

  • Targets: 20805, 20730, 20675 — in play as long as 21380 holds. Probability decreases as bears reclaim higher levels.

  • Bounce likely from 20805/20675 if price drops first before bouncing towards 21380.

Big Picture

  • Bullish if 21810 is reclaimed on daily: Targets 22080, 22310, 650*, 23230+.

  • Bearish until 21810 is claimed on the daily: Targets 20510/405- with 21000/20940 as intermediate levels to watch.

Support Levels

  • Intra-day support: 20940, 20900, 20830/805*

  • Daily support: 20940, 20805*/740, 20675*

  • Weekly support: 20940*, 20805/675, 20510*/405*

  • Monthly support: 20940*, 20070*/20010*, 19800*

  • Yearly support: 19650/500*, 18590/18400*, 17465

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day resistance: 21045*, 21100, 21180*, 21300*/325*

  • Daily resistance: 21300/380*, 21550, 21810*/21900*

  • Weekly resistance: 21550, 21750*, 21900*/22080

  • Monthly resistance: 21450, 21900, 22425/525

  • Yearly resistance: 22060/22310, 22650/23610, 24620/26700

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 19500/18400 holds, targets 23600, 24620, 26700, 27800+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 22060/22310, targets 5740, 5405, 5330-.

#RTY:


Key Levels

  • Below 2245, bears keep momentum from Friday.

  • Bears control below 2310.

  • Bears lose control step by step: 2255 → 2278 → 2305*/2310.

  • Targets: 2181, 2132, 2100 — in play as long as 2255 holds. Probability decreases as bears reclaim higher levels.

  • Bounce likely from 2181 if price dips first before testing 2255.

Big Picture

  • Bullish if 2310 is claimed on the daily: Targets 2363, 2386, 95+.

  • Bearish if 2181 fails to hold on the daily: Targets 2133, 2101*/2091-.

Support Levels

  • Intra-day support: 2191, 2181*, 2172

  • Daily support: 2194/81, 2132, 2100/2091*

  • Weekly support: 2194*/2181*, 2100/2091*, 2058

  • Monthly support: 2194/2181*, 2068/2033*, 1983

  • Yearly support: 2194/2181*, 2058*, 1972*

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day resistance: 2207, 2214, 2222*, 2240, 2250/55

  • Daily resistance: 2245/55*, 2287, 2310

  • Weekly resistance: 2305*, 2373, 2405*

  • Monthly resistance: 2260, 2315*, 2435/45*

  • Yearly resistance: 2463, 2615/2756, 3000

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 2181/2058 holds or is reclaimed, targets 2315, 2463, 2615/2756+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 2315/2445, targets 2081*, 2058*, 1972, 1916-.

#YM:

Key Levels

  • Below 42905, bears keep momentum from Friday.

  • Intra-day bears lose control step by step: 42305 → 42480 → 42690/860.

  • Bears control below 43750.

  • Bears lose control step by step: 42905 → 43380 → 43750.

  • Targets: 42000/41920, 41790, 41670 — in play as long as 42905 holds. Probability decreases as bears reclaim higher levels.

  • Bounce likely from 42000/41920 if price moves down first before testing 42905.

Big Picture

  • Bullish if 43750 is claimed on the daily: Targets 43970*, 44150, 44240*, 44485+.

  • Bearish if 43000 fails to hold on the daily: Targets 42000, 41970**, 41790- (currently in play).

Support Levels

  • Intra-day support: 42150*, 41985*, 41920*

  • Daily support: 42200/21950, 41840, 41670*

  • Weekly support: 42150*, 41790/670, 41425*

  • Monthly support: 41970**/41790*, 40350*/40030, 39590*

  • Yearly support: 40330*/41260, 40100/39335, 37900

Resistance Levels

  • Intra-day resistance: 42305*, 42420/480*, 42675, 42860*

  • Daily resistance: 42905, 43035, 43380, 43670/750*

  • Weekly resistance: 43025, 43410*, 43960*

  • Monthly resistance: 43410, 44220, 45050/45095

  • Yearly resistance: 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685

Yearly View

  • Bullish: As long as 41790/40100 holds or is reclaimed, targets 45050, 46975, 48050, 49685+.

  • Bearish: If bears hold 44485/45050, targets 41790/40100/37870-.

Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:

Uptrend to Downtrend:

  1. Fail key support levels.

  2. Reject first support in back tests.

  3. Sell-the-rally mania.

  4. Breakdowns with staying power.

  5. Form lower highs & lows.

Downtrend to Uptrend:

  1. Claim key resistance levels.

  2. Hold second support in pullbacks.

  3. Buy-the-dip frenzy.

  4. Breakouts with staying power.

  5. Form higher highs & lows.

Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:

  1. Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.

  2. Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)

  3. Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.

  4. Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).

  5. Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 12/29- 1/03]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-1229-103https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-1229-103Sun, 29 Dec 2024 20:20:18 GMT

Still on holiday mode here, so keeping this newsletter short and sweet—but I think you’ll find it actionable and helpful for your trading!

Key points:

  • Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).

    • If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.

  • Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.

    • If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.

I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

  • As mentioned in the Dec 16-20 newsletter, an orange flag triggered for #RTY, #YM, and #ES on Dec 5, 6, and 9, followed by a deeper dive that week.

  • Last week, the market tried to hold support from the previous week, but weakness returned on Thursday after hitting key resistance levels.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (12/29 – 1/03)

  • End-of-year candle prints this week.

  • Wednesday is a holiday for New Year’s.

  • Short trading week with just a few standard economic reports.

  • Still expecting enough action to keep volatility alive.

Seasonality Insights:

  • New year, new month—good time to revisit seasonality charts.

  • Historically, the latter part of January tends to be weak, but it’s not set in stone.

  • The market could keep rallying, especially if the recent rally was election-driven, though it might pause during the transition (just my opinion—not a trading plan).

Key Reminders:

  • Always protect your profits and have a plan ready in case the market does the unexpected (it often does, right?).

  • I stick to trading level by level, as outlined below.

Quick Summary:

#ES

  • Bullish above 6005, bearish below 5996/5900.

    • Bulls weak < 6127.

    • Bears lose control step by step: 6095 → 6105 → 6127.

#NQ

  • Bullish above 21700, bearish below 21610.

    • Bulls weak < 22310.

    • Bears lose control step by step: 22010 → 22220 → 22310.

#RTY

  • Bullish above 2247/2245, bearish below 2241.

    • Bulls weak < 2395.

    • Bears lose control step by step: 2300 → 2366 → 2395.

#YM

  • Bullish above 43330/43255, bearish below 43145.

    • Bulls weak < 44240.

    • Bears lose control step by step: 43685 → 43970 → 44240.

#SI

  • Bullish above 29.95, bearish below 29.90.

    • Bulls weak; need to claim 31.05 to target 32.60/33/33.20+.

#GC

  • Bullish above 2630/2628, bearish below 2628.

    • Bulls weak; need to claim 2675 to target 2714/2759+.

#PL

  • Bullish above 934, bearish below 931.

    • Bulls weak < 965.

    • Coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout or breakdown needed for bigger moves.

#PA

  • Bullish above 911, bearish below 908.

    • Bulls weak < 990; need to claim 990 to target 1040/1050+.

#CL

  • Bullish above 69.6, bearish below 69.4.

    • Holding $66 monthly support for 4 months—if it fails, expect a larger drop.

    • Bears lose control step by step: 70.5 → 71.5 → 73.

    • Weekly close > 76/75.10 needed for sustained bullish momentum.

Quick Plays:

#ES:

Big Picture:

  • If 6105 is claimed on the daily, targets: 6127 → 6153* → 6185* → 6192*+.

  • If 5865 fails to hold on the daily, targets: 5745 → 5732-.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 6027, 6015/05*, 5996/5990.

  • Daily: 5996, 5945/5930, 5905/5900.

  • Weekly: 5996, 5965*, 5876.

  • Monthly: 5900/5865, 5745/5725*, 5656/5626*.

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 6045, 6068, 6083.

  • Daily: 6092/6105, 6127/6153, 6185*/6192*.

  • Weekly: 6126/6153, 6185*/6192*, 6215*/6250*.

  • Monthly: 6138*, 6215*/6250*, 6305*.

#NQ:

  • Bulls weak < 22310.

  • Bears lose control step by step: 22010 → 22220 → 22310.

Big Picture:

  • If 21550 holds or is reclaimed, targets: 22300 → 22650* → 23230.

  • If 21475 fails on the daily, targets: 20510 → 20405-, with intermediate levels to watch at 21000/20940.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 21700, 21610, 21550/21510.

  • Daily: 21570/21510, 21305*, 21070.

  • Weekly: 21550/21475*, 21000*/20940*, 20805/20510*.

  • Monthly: 21405/21000*, 20070*/20010*, 19815/19650*.

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 21750, 21900, 21960/22005.

  • Daily: 22005/22090*, 22310/22415, 22600*.

  • Weekly: 22080*, 22525*, 22700/23230*.

  • Monthly: 22425/22525, 23230*/23610*, 24000.

#RTY:

Big Picture:

  • If 2300 is claimed on the daily, targets: 2363 → 2386 → 2395+.

  • If 2245 fails to hold on the daily, targets: 2205 → 2198*-.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 2263, 2253, 2247/2245.

  • Daily: 2247/2241, 2230, 2220/2214, 2198-.

  • Weekly: 2241, 2214*, 2198*.

  • Monthly: 2205/2198*, 2068/2033*, 1983.

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 2266*, 2285*, 2293.

  • Daily: 2296/2305*, 2364, 2386/2395.

  • Weekly: 2305*, 2373, 2405*.

  • Monthly: 2435/2445*, 2463*, 2520/2575*.

#YM:

Big Picture:

  • If 43710 is claimed on the daily, targets: 43970* → 44150 → 44240* → 44485+.

  • If 43000 fails to hold on the daily, targets: 42000 → 41970** → 41790-.

Support Levels:

  • Intra-day: 43330, 43275/43255, 43215.

  • Daily: 43145, 42570, 42415*/42000*.

  • Weekly: 42840, 42000*, 41790/41425.

  • Monthly: 41970**/41790*, 40350*/40030, 39590*.

Resistance Levels:

  • Intra-day: 43390*, 43510/43590, 43645.

  • Daily: 43710, 43970*/44150, 44240.

  • Weekly: 43750, 44315/44485, 44700/44810*.

  • Monthly: 45095/45675*, 46350*/46960*, 47025*.

Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:

Uptrend to Downtrend:

  1. Fail key support levels.

  2. Reject first support in back tests.

  3. Sell-the-rally mania.

  4. Breakdowns with staying power.

  5. Form lower highs & lows.

Downtrend to Uptrend:

  1. Claim key resistance levels.

  2. Hold second support in pullbacks.

  3. Buy-the-dip frenzy.

  4. Breakouts with staying power.

  5. Form higher highs & lows.

Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:

  1. Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.

  2. Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)

  3. Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.

  4. Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).

  5. Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar :

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

What does bear pressure or bulls weak below a level means?


More Sell the rally (STR) than Buy the dip (BTD) until claimed on a higher time frame.
Trading Time frames: Candle close above

  • Intraday: 1 or 4 hrly

  • Short-term: Daily

  • Long-term: Weekly

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 12/16- 12/20]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-1216-1220https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-1216-1220Sun, 15 Dec 2024 18:13:30 GMT

My levels are for the Dec 2024 contract. This week, it'll roll to the Mar 2025 contract, so levels might not align perfectly. I might update them once TOS rolls over, but no promises. :)

Because of this, I haven’t included detailed trade plans for #ES and #NQ.

Until Dec 20, you can still check the Dec contract for reference, even if you're not trading it!

Key points:

  • Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).

    • If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.

  • Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.

    • If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.

I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

  • #NQ hit a new ATH and is holding support so far. Rest of the market? Moving down.

  • My flag system spotted weakness early when orange flags triggered:

    • #RTY on Dec 5th

    • #YM on Dec 6th

    • #ES on Dec 9th

  • Metals had an initial spike, hitting daily targets, but #SI, #GC, #PL, and #PA gave up all gains by week's end.

  • #CL held 66.75 (as mentioned in last week’s NL), reclaimed 70.5, and gave bulls a shot at control. Still needs two more levels for a sustained upside, IMO.

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (12/16 – 12/20)

  • Economic Calendar:

    • Busy week ahead: economic reports + Fed rate announcement & press conference on Wednesday.

    • Oh, and it’s the week before Christmas. 🎄

    • Don’t forget, contract rollover kicks off Monday/Tuesday.

    • Plenty of reasons for the market to throw tantrums, no matter the volume! 😅.

  • Market Outlook:

    • Big week ahead for short/medium-term moves, starting with market weakness. Without a Fed boost, the downside may continue. (Not a trading plan, just my 2 cents!)

    • #ES & #NQ: Upside possible if intraday supports hold. If Friday's low breaks, expect more chop.

    • #RTY & #YM: Sitting on key daily supports. A green close could mean a backtest to the upside; otherwise, more downside ahead.

    • #NQ keeps climbing, but the slope feels unsustainable without a pullback or some sideways action. (Posted alerts on X about this!)

    • #ES cooled off a bit last week, but the pullback timing remains uncertain.

    • Shared a cheat sheet below for spotting trend changes. Not about nailing tops/bottoms, but my 3-level flag system helps with short-term bias.

    • Always open to both directions—trading based on support/resistance levels only.

  • Metals:

    • As noted after October’s red close, bulls needed to reclaim key levels to reverse the trend. First attempt? A swing and a miss.

    • Now, #GC, #SI, #PL, and #PA are near key supports—bulls’ move to make or break.

  • #CL:

    • First green week after November’s red month, reclaiming the 70.50 resistance.

    • Spent 8 weeks stuck between 66.75 & 72.5.

    • Bulls need to clear 2 more levels (see below) for a sustained upside move.

Overview:

  • Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:

  • Aggressively moving #NQ flag levels closer for early detection.
    This increases the chance of false positives, especially if a green reversal candle shows up the next day.

  • Red Flags:

    • Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.

    • 1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.

    • 2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.

    • Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):

      • #ES: 6076 (triggered Dec 5th), 6036, 5940

      • #NQ: 21665, 21425, 21305

      • #RTY: 2418 (triggered Dec 5th), 2317, 2082

      • #YM: 44820 (triggered Dec 6th), 44450 (triggered Dec 10th), 43380

Quick Summary:

  • #ES: Bullish above 6076, Bearish below 6047/42

    • {ESH25 : Bullish above 6145, Bearish below 6047/42}

  • #NQ: Bullish above 21685, Bearish below 21665

  • #RTY: Bullish above 2340, Bearish below 2338

  • #YM: Bullish above 43810, Bearish below 43810

  • #SI: Bullish above 31.10, Bearish below 30.90

    • Bulls weak—need 31.80 to target 33.25/34+

  • #GC: Bullish above 2660, Bearish below 2650

    • Bulls weak—need 2684 to target 2717/2759+

  • #PL: Bullish above 923, Bearish below 923

    • Bulls weak under 945

    • Coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout/breakdown needed for big moves

  • #PA: Bullish above 958, Bearish below 946

  • #CL: Bullish above 70, Bearish below 69.85

    • Holding $66 monthly support for 3 months—if it breaks, expect a bigger drop

    • Bears lose control step by step: 70.5 → 71.5 → 73

    • Last week held 66.75 support & reclaimed first key level for bulls

    • Weekly close > 76/75.10 needed for sustained upside

Quick Plays:

#ES:

  • Bulls:

    • Weak after Orange flag triggered on Dec 9th.

    • Need to reclaim 6076 → 6089 → 6105 on daily to gain control.

    • {ESH25 : Need to reclaim 6145 → 6165 → 6170 on daily to gain control}

    • Intraday path: 6058 → 6066 → 6076 leads to claiming first key level (6076 daily).

    • {ESH25 : Intraday path: 6128 → 6135 → 6145 leads to claiming first key level (6145 daily)}

    • Still weak below 6089.

    • {ESH25 : Still weak below 6165}

  • Bears:

    • Lose control step by step if bulls push above 6076 → 6089 → 6105 daily.

    • {ESH25 : Lose control step by step if bulls push above 6145 → 6164 → 6174 daily.}

    • If 6089 fails or rejects, 6015/6000- in play.

    • {ESH25 : If 6164 fails or rejects on daily, 6086/6069- in play. }

    • If 6036 fails on hourly/4H, 6015/6000- likely.

    • {ESH25 : If 6103 fails on hourly/4H, 6086/6069- likely.}

  • Key Levels:

    • If 6047/42 holds, upside levels in play:
      6058 → 6066 → [6076] → [6085] → (6089) → [6093] → 6099 → [6103] → (6110/6118) → 6125 → [6135] → 6142 → 6151 → (6185) → 6202 → (6230) → 6250 → 6260+.

    • {ESH25 : If 6117/6111 holds, upside levels in play:
      6127 → 6135 → [6145] → [6155] → (6164) → [6168] → 6175 → (6178/6187) → 6194 → [6205] → 6212 → 6221 → (6255) → 6272 → (6300) → 6320 → 6330+}

    • If 6042 fails, downside levels in play:
      (6036) → [6032] → 6023 → 6019 → (6015) → 6007 → [6000/5996] → 5988 → [5982] → 5976 → (5963) → 5953 → (5943) → 5930 → 5912 → 5905 → (5900/5895)-.

    • {ESH25 : If 6111 fails, downside levels in play:
      (6103) → [6090] → 6086*→ 6077 → (6077) → 6007 → [6000/5996] → 5988 → [5982] → 5976 → (5963) → 5953 → (5943) → 5930 → 5912 → 5905 → (5900/5895)-. }

  • Big Picture:

    • As long as 6049 holds or is reclaimed, 6185/6230/6260+ remain possible.

    • {ESH25 : As long as 6117 holds or is reclaimed, 6260/6300/6330+ remain possible}

  • Supports:

    • Daily: 6046/6036, 6023/6015, 6007/5993

    • Weekly: 6036, 6007/5993, 5976/5963

    • Monthly: 5900, 5745/5732, 5656/5626

  • Resistances:

    • Daily: 6089, 6096/6106, 6118/6130

    • Weekly: 6096/6106, 6118/6130, 6185/6192

    • Monthly: 6118/6130, 6250/6260, 6370

  • Key Monthly Levels:

    • Bulls must defend 5900—if it fails, 5745/5732 come into play.

    • 5732 is the second/last monthly support—below that, 5627- in play.

#NQ:

  • Bulls:

    • Keep momentum > 21760.

    • If 21760 → 21720 → 21685 holds, upside targets:
      21830 → [21885] → 21930 → [21950] → 21990 → 22050 → 22090 → (22125) → 22300 → 22360 → [22530/560] → 22700 → (23230+).

  • Bears:

    • If 21665 fails, downside targets:
      21595 → 21570 → 21525 → 21485 → [21450] → 21385 → [21350/325] → (21305) → 21275 → (21130) → [21000] → (20940) → 20855 → (20825/805) → 20735 → 20715 → (20690/675) → 20625/595 → (20500) → 20475 → 20420 → (20380/360) → 20280 → 20230 → 20130/105 → (20070/20010).

  • Big Picture:

    • As long as 21000 holds or is reclaimed, 22300/22360/23230 remain in play.

  • Supports:

    • Daily: 21665/21630, 21435/21405, 21305

    • Weekly: 21305, 21000/20940, 20810/20735

    • Monthly: 20675, 20070/20010, 19815/19650

  • Resistances:

    • Daily: 21900/21950, 22050/22090, 22360

    • Weekly: 22090/22300, 22530, 22700/23230

    • Monthly: 22360, 23230, 24000

  • Key Monthly Levels:

    • First support: 20675—if it fails, 20500/20380 come into play.

    • Bulls must defend weekly supports near 20380 to avoid a test of 19650/19500.

#RTY:

Bulls:

  • Weak after Orange flag triggered on Dec 5th.

  • Need to reclaim 2373 → 2401 → 2435 on daily to regain control.

  • Intraday path: 2358 → 2367 → 2373 leads to claiming first key level (2373 daily).

  • Still weak below 2401.

Bears:

  • Lose control step by step if bulls push above 2373 → 2401 → 2435 daily.

  • If 2358 or 2367 rejects, look for shorts with targets at 2345/2340 → 2338 → 2328.

  • If 2338 fails, downside levels in play:

    • (2328) → 2318 → (2306) → 2301 → 2286 → 2272 → 2252 → 2229 → 2220 → 2205 → 2198 → 2068 → 2033.

Key Levels:

  • If 2345/2342/2340 holds, upside levels in play:

    • 2358 → 2367 → [2373] → (2387) → 2401 → [2409] → (2414) → [2420/2423] → 2430 → (2435) → 2440 → 2446 → 2454 → (2457) → 2461+.

  • If 2338 fails, downside levels in play:

    • (2328/2326) → 2318 → (2306) → [2301] → 2286 → (2272) → 2252 → (2229) → 2220 → (2205) → (2198) → 2068 → 2033.

Big Picture:

  • As long as 2371 holds or is reclaimed, 2575+ remains in play.

  • If 2338 fails on daily, 2318/2306- in play.

Supports:

  • Daily: 2338/2328, 2318, 2286/2280

  • Weekly: 2338/2328, 2318/2306, 2280/2272

  • Monthly: 2318/2306, 2205/2198, 2068/2033

Resistances:

  • Daily: 2373, 2401, 2435/2346

  • Weekly: 2414, 2435/2346, 2457/2461

  • Monthly: 2461, 2520/2575, 2630

Key Monthly Levels:

  • Bulls must defend 2205/2198—if it fails, 2068/2033 become likely.

Example Plan:

  • If weekly support at 2318/2306 holds on hourly/4H, long with targets at 2328, 2338, and 2348.

  • If price holds above 2345, long after 2358 is reclaimed on hourly, setting SL under that candle. Ready to re-enter if it fails initially and reclaims the level, targeting 2367, 2373, and 2379.

  • If 2358 or 2367 is rejected, look for a short with SL above the rejection candle and targets at 2358, 2345/2340, and 2338.

#YM:

Bulls:

  • Weak after Orange flag triggered on Dec 6th.

  • Need to reclaim 44145 → 44510 → 44675 on daily to gain control.

  • Intraday path: 43950 → 44010 → 44090 leads to 44145 key level.

  • Still weak below 44145.

Bears:

  • Lose control step by step if bulls push above 44145 → 44510 → 44675 daily.

  • If 44145 fails or rejects, 43680 → 43575 → 43425 in play.

  • If 43810 fails on hourly/4H, downside likely to continue.

Key Levels:

  • If 43810 holds, upside levels in play:

    • 43950 → 44010 → 44090 → (44145) → 44240 → (44275) → 44370 → 44510 → 44555 → (44675) → 44800 → 44910 → (44985) → 45125+.

  • If 43810 fails, downside levels in play:

    • 43680 → 43575 → 43480 → 43425 → 43400 → (43385) → 43250 → 43180 → 42990 → 42850 → 42440 → 42000 → 41970 → 41790-.

Big Picture:

  • As long as 43580 holds or is reclaimed, 45030/45290+ in play.

Supports:

  • Daily: 43810, 43575, 43480.

  • Weekly: 43580, 42990, 42440.

  • Monthly: 43580/43480, 41970/41790, 40350.

Resistances:

  • Daily: 44145, 44275, 44675.

  • Weekly: 44555, 44810, 45050.

  • Monthly: 45675, 46350, 47025.

Key Monthly Levels:

  • Bulls must defend 43580—if it fails, 42990/42440 come into play.

Example Plan:

  • If daily support of 43810 holds on hourly/4 hourly, go long & may add to position keeping 43950*, 44010*, 44090*, 44145*+ as targets

  • However if 44090 or 44145 rejected, look to go short with SL above hourly candle that rejected these levels and 2nd/3rd intra day supports like 43950/43850- targets

Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:

Uptrend to Downtrend:

  1. Fail key support levels.

  2. Reject first support in back tests.

  3. Sell-the-rally mania.

  4. Breakdowns with staying power.

  5. Form lower highs & lows.

Downtrend to Uptrend:

  1. Claim key resistance levels.

  2. Hold second support in pullbacks.

  3. Buy-the-dip frenzy.

  4. Breakouts with staying power.

  5. Form higher highs & lows.

Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:

  1. Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.

  2. Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)

  3. Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.

  4. Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).

  5. Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar :

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Thanks for reading TradersNvestor's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

]]><![CDATA[Weekly Charts Reading for 12/09- 12/13]]>https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-1209-1213https://newsletter.markettradingalerts.com/p/weekly-charts-reading-for-1209-1213Sun, 08 Dec 2024 15:41:34 GMT

As a bonus experiment, I’ve added back detailed trading plans in different format for #ES and #NQ to illustrate how to turn levels into actionable execution strategies. Hope it helps!

Key points:

  • Support and resistance levels are marked with asterisks (*).

    • If one level is claimed or failed, the next asterisked level comes into play.

  • Levels in parentheses indicate daily time frame transitions.

    • If one level in parentheses is claimed or failed, the next level in parentheses comes into play.

I hope this helps you navigate the market effectively.

As always, I appreciate your likes, shares, and restacks on Substack and X.

Your feedback helps me know if I'm adding value to your trading.

Given the abundance of numbers in this newsletter, there's a chance I might make a typo. If you spot any errors, please give me a heads up. Thanks a bunch!

How’s last week?

  • Mixed market: #ES, #NQ, and #YM hit new highs, but #RTY and #YM closed red.

  • Metals stayed weak as expected, while #ZB ended the week green.

  • #CL showed early strength but pulled back after nearly hitting 70.

  • Bonus Alert: Hourly charts included below to review last week's levels and trade plans!

Read here how I use this Weekly Newsletter in my daily trading

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

Week Ahead (12/09 – 12/13)

  • Economic Calendar:

    • Quiet week ahead with Wed’s CPI and Thursday's Unemployment Claims being the key events.

    • Next week is calm before the busy week of Dec 16th with the Fed rate decision, FOMC press conference, and contract rollovers.

  • Market Outlook:

    • Expect last week’s trends to continue, possibly with more volatility Wednesday and Thursday.

    • #ES & #NQ: Upside likely if intraday support levels hold. If Friday’s low fails, more chop is possible.

    • #RTY & #YM: Watch intraday or weekly supports. If they hold and the day closes green, upside likely; otherwise, downside continuation.

    • #ES and #NQ keep climbing, but the upward slope feels unsustainable without a pullback or sideways action. I’ve posted alerts on X about this.

    • Not sure when the pullback will come, but I’ve shared a cheat sheet below on what I look for in trend changes. I don’t predict the exact top/bottom, but my 3-level flag system helps with short-term bias.

    • I stay open to both upside and downside and trade guided by my support and resistance levels only.

  • Metals:

    • Metals closed October in red; bulls need to reclaim key levels to reverse the trend.

    • #SI claimed a level on Dec 4th but pulled back. If 31 holds, targets at 33/34/35 remain in play.

  • #CL:

    • Still weak after failing to hold 70 on Dec 3rd.

    • If 66.75 holds and 70 reclaims, 75+ is likely. Otherwise, expect more downside.

Overview:

  • Trend changes happen step by step as bulls/bears lose control, which is why I use my 3-flag system:

  • Moving flag levels closer for early detection, but this could lead to more false positives, especially if a green reversal candle appears the next day.

  • Red Flags:

    • Orange Flag: A red day close below the uptrend in question.

    • 1st Red Flag: A red day close below the short-term weekly uptrend.

    • 2nd Red Flag: A red day close that voids the short-term weekly uptrend.

    • Daily Timeframe Flag Triggers (on a red day close below these levels):

      • #ES: 6076, 6036, 5940

      • #NQ: 21420, 21135, 20805

      • #RTY: 2418 (triggered Dec 5th), 2317, 2082

      • #YM: 44820 (triggered Dec 6th), 44450, 43380

Quick Summary:

  • #ES: Bullish above 6092/82, bearish below 6075/66.

  • #NQ: Bullish above 21450, bearish below 21425.

  • #RTY: Bullish above 2405, bearish below 2400.

  • #YM: Bullish above 44675, bearish below 44675.

  • #SI: Bullish above 31.10, bearish below 31.

  • #GC: Bullish above 2640, bearish below 2639.

  • #PL: Bullish above 931, bearish below 930.

    • Coiling between 900–1090 for months; breakout or breakdown needed for bigger moves.

  • #PA: Bullish above 1000, bearish below 979/946.

  • #CL: Bullish above 66.75, bearish below 66.75.

    • Holding $66 monthly support for 3 months. If it fails, expect a larger drop.

    • Bears lose control step by step 70.5 → 71.5 → 73

    • Weekly close > 76/75.10 needed for a sustained bullish move.

Quick Plays:

#ES:

  • Bulls keep momentum above 6082

  • As long 6092/82 holds, [6107/6110*], (6118*), 6135*, 6142, 6151*, (6185*), 6202*, (6230*), 6250*, 6260+ in play

  • If 6075 fails, [6066*/63*], 6056, [6049*], 6040, (6036*), [6032*], 6023*/6019*, (6015*), 6007*, 6000*/5996*, [5982*], 5976*, (5963*), 5953* (5943*), 5930*, 5912*, 5905*, (5900/5895*)- in play

  • Big picture

    • as long 6049 holds or reclaimed, 6185/6230/6260+ in play

    • 5900 is first key monthly support level for bulls to defend if fails to hold 5745/32- in play. 5732 being second/last monthly support if fails 5627- in play

  • Key support & resistance levels:

    • Daily supports: 6063*, 6049*/36*, 6023/15*

    • Daily resistances: 6110/6118*, 6142/6150*, 6192*

    • Weekly supports: 6049*/36*, 6007*/5993*, 5976/5963*

    • Weekly resistances: 6118*, 6185*, 6230*

    • Monthly supports: 5900, 5745/32*, 5656/26*

    • Monthly resistances: 6118/6130*, 6250/6260*, 6370

#NQ:

  • Bulls keep momentum above 21450.

  • As long 21570/490/450 holds, [21640*], (21700*/21760*), 21800*, 21950, 22050*, (22125*), 22300, 22360*, [22530*/560*], 22700*, (23230*)+ in play

  • If 21425 fails, 21385*, [21350*/325*], (21305*), 21275*, (21130*), [21000*], (20940*), 20855, (20825*/805*), 21735*, 20715*, (20690*/675*), 20625*/595*, (20500*), 20475, 20420*, (20380*/360*), 20280, 20230, 20130/105*, 20070*, 20010*, 20000*, 19815, 19650*- in play

  • Big picture -

    • As long as 21000 holds or is reclaimed, the path to 22300 → 22360 → 23230 remains open.

    • If 20675 (monthly support) fails, watch for further downside towards 20500 → 20380 → 19650.

  • Key support & resistance levels:

    • Daily supports: 21425, 21305, 21130*

    • Daily resistances: 21700*/800*, 21950/22050*, 22530*

    • Weekly supports: 21305, 21000*/20940*, 20810*/735

    • Weekly resistances: 21700*, 22050*/22300, 22530*/22700*

    • Monthly supports: 20675*, 20070/20010*, 19815/19650*

    • Monthly resistances: 21760, 22360, 23230

#RTY:

  • Week ended red. Orange flag triggered Dec 5. Next day closed mildly green, offering bulls some hope. But 2435 must be reclaimed to ease bear pressure and sustain upward momentum.

  • As long 2405/2400/2397 holds, 2413, [2420/23*], 2430, [2433/35*], 2440, (2446*), 2454*, (2457/61*), 2485*, 2495, 2504, 2520*, 2524, (2540*/2545)+ in play

  • If 2397 fails, 2393, 2380*, (2368*), 2326*, 2350, (2318*/2306*), 2205, 2198*, 2068, 2033*- in play

  • Big picture

    • as long 2371 holds or reclaimed, 2575+ in play

    • Although 2205/2198* are second monthly support levels, if 2182 fails to hold bigger drop to 2068/2033 likely

  • Key support & resistance levels:

    • Daily supports: 2405/2397*, 2380/68*, 2338/2328*

    • Daily resistances: 2435*/2346*, 2457/61*, 2485/2504

    • Weekly supports: 2419*, 2368, 2318/2306*

    • Weekly resistances: 2495, 2540/2545, 2605

    • Monthly supports: 2317/2306, 2205/2198*, 2068/2033*

    • Monthly resistances: 2461*, 2520/2575*, 2630

#YM:

  • Week ended red despite a new high. Orange flag triggered Fri, Dec 6. Bulls must reclaim 44985 to counter bear pressure and push higher.

  • As long 44675 holds, (44795*), [44910*], 44980*, 45125*, 45290*, (45340*), 45570, 45600*/655, 45720*, 45825*, (45920*), 46105*, 46180*, 46350*, 46960, 47025*+ in play

  • If 44675 fails, 44590, 44500*, (44445*), 43985, 43810*, 43580*, 43480, (43400*), 43180*, 42990*, 42910*, 42440*, 42000*, 41970/950*, 41790*- in play

  • As wrote in Oct, Big picture - as long 43580 holds or reclaimed 45030/290*+ in play - nearly reached (45171 high so far)

  • Key support & resistance levels:

    • Daily supports: 44490**/44445*, 44240*, 43990/43810*

    • Daily resistances: 45150*/45290*, 45350*/45670, 45925*/46180*

    • Weekly supports: 44490**/44445, 43580**, 42990*

    • Weekly resistances: 45345*, 45720/45825*, 46180*

    • Monthly supports: 43580/43480*, 41970*/41790*, 40350*

    • Monthly resistances: 45675*, 46350*/46960*, 47025*

Here’s my cheat sheet for spotting trend changes:

Uptrend to Downtrend:

  1. Fail key support levels.

  2. Reject first support in back tests.

  3. Sell-the-rally mania.

  4. Breakdowns with staying power.

  5. Form lower highs & lows.

Downtrend to Uptrend:

  1. Claim key resistance levels.

  2. Hold second support in pullbacks.

  3. Buy-the-dip frenzy.

  4. Breakouts with staying power.

  5. Form higher highs & lows.

Signs of Shifting to Sideways Action:

  1. Breakouts or breakdowns often lack follow-through.

  2. Alternating highs and lows on lower time frame.(no clear higher/lower highs & lows)

  3. Prices consolidate in narrow ranges: 30-50 points for #ES, 100-150 points for #NQ.

  4. Test and hold key levels, then test and reject resistance (or vice versa).

  5. Intra-day dips into support or resistance quickly reclaimed.

Note about levels above ATH

Upside targets are estimated without left-side confirmation on the chart, utilizing a combination of Fibonacci and trend lines across multiple time frames. Feel free to reach out if these levels prove effective; otherwise, your understanding is appreciated.

These levels are subject to refinement as prices evolve throughout the days.

In the event of new highs, prioritizing profit-taking based on risk-to-reward multiples is recommended, rather than waiting for specific target levels to be reached.

Feel free to scroll down to the end of the report to get a rundown on some of the terms I'm throwing around, like "hold," "claim," and “fail”

Events Calendar :

[Bonus]

Guidelines for Entry Confirmation

  1. Candle Close Rules:

    • Intraday: Confirm breakouts/failures with 15m/hourly candle close at intraday levels.

    • Daily: Confirm with hourly/4-hourly candle close at daily levels.

    • Weekly: Confirm with daily candle close at weekly levels.

  2. Handling Breakouts:

    • High Probability of Initial Failure:

      • Be prepared to lose the first breakout trade if it reverses.

      • Use the next reversal candle for a quick switch to short if risk reward is at least 1:2.

      • Second attempts at breakout levels are likely more successful.

    • Better Entries: After a failed breakout, often you get a better long entry at the next support level when price reverses upward.

Typical Stop Loss Examples:

#ES_F:

  • Intraday Trades: Use a 3-5 point SL with a minimum 10-point target.

  • Swing Trades: Use a 10-15 point SL with a minimum 30-point target.

#NQ_F:

  1. Intraday Trades: Use a 20-25 point SL with minimum 40-50 point target.

  2. Swing Trades: Use a 30-35 point SL with minimum 60-80 point target.

  • Always maintain a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio with targets.

  • Intraday trades focus on quicker moves, while swing trades aim for larger targets.

  • Use partial exits for scaling out and securing profits while leaving room for extended targets.

  • Stick to stop-loss levels to manage risk.

  • Avoid over-trading; wait for clear setups.

  • Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation.

  • Be flexible and reenter only if conditions realign after a failure.

Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #ES_F

Long Strategy: When to Go Long

Entry Triggers for Long Positions:

Breakout Above Key Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday Resistances:

    • Long above 6107, targeting 6118 → 6135

    • Long above 6118, targeting 6135 → 6151 → 6185.

  • Daily/Weekly/Monthly Resistances:

    • Long above 6135, targeting 6151 → 6185 → 6230.

    • Long above 6185, targeting 6230 → 6250.

Pullbacks to Key Support Levels:

  • Intraday Supports:

    • Long on bounce from 6092, targeting 6107 → 6118.

    • Long on bounce from 6082, targeting 6092 → 6107.

  • Daily/Weekly/Monthly Supports:

    • Long on bounce from 6066, targeting 6082 → 6092 → 6110.

    • Long on bounce from 6049, targeting 6066 → 6082.

Stop Loss (SL):

  • Intraday Trades: Place SL 3-5 points below entry.

    • Example: Long at 6092 → SL at 6089.

  • Swing Trades: Place SL 10-15 points below entry.

    • Example: Long at 6066 → SL at 6056.

Short Strategy: When to Go Short

Entry Triggers for Short Positions:

Breakdown Below Key Support Levels:

  • Intraday Supports:

    • Short below 6092, targeting 6082 → 6066.

    • Short below 6082, targeting 6066 → 6049.

  • Daily/Weekly/Monthly Supports:

    • Short below 6066, targeting 6049 → 6036.

    • Short below 6049, targeting 6007 → 5900.

Rejections at Resistance Levels:

  • Intraday Resistances:

    • Short on rejection at 6107, targeting 6092 → 6082.

    • Short on rejection at 6118, targeting 6107 → 6092.

  • Daily/Weekly/Monthly Resistances:

    • Short on rejection at 6135, targeting 6118 → 6107.

    • Short on rejection at 6185, targeting 6135 → 6118.

Stop Loss (SL):

  • Intraday Trades: Place SL 3-5 points above entry.

    • Example: Short at 6107 → SL at 6110.

  • Swing Trades: Place SL 10-15 points above entry.

    • Example: Short at 6066 → SL at 6076.

Actionable Trade Examples

  1. Intraday Long Trade:

    • Trigger: Breakout above 6107 (15m/hourly close).

    • SL: Below 6104 (3-point SL).

    • Targets: 6118 → 6135

  2. Swing Long Trade:

    • Trigger: Bounce from 6066 (hourly/4-hourly close).

    • SL: Below 6056 (10-point SL).

    • Targets: 6082 → 6092

  3. Intraday Short Trade:

    • Trigger: Breakdown below 6092 (15m/hourly close).

    • SL: Above 6095 (3-point SL).

    • Targets: 6082 → 6066

  4. Swing Short Trade:

    • Trigger: Breakdown below 6049 (hourly/4-hourly close).

    • SL: Above 6059 (10-point SL).

    • Targets: 6036 → 6007

Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #NQ_F

Long Strategy: When to Go Long

Entry Triggers for Long Positions:

Breakout Above Key Resistance Levels:

  • Long above 21640, targeting 21700 → 21760 → 21800.

  • Long above 21800, targeting 21950 → 22050 → 22300.

Pullbacks to Key Support Levels:

  • Long on bounce from 21570, targeting 21640 → 21700 → 21760.

  • Long on bounce from 21425, targeting 21570 → 21640 → 21700.

Stop Loss (SL):

  • For Intraday Trades, place SL 15-20 points below entry.

    • Example: Long at 21640 → SL at 21620.

  • For Swing Trades, place SL 30-40 points below entry.

    • Example: Long at 21425 → SL at 21385.

Short Strategy: When to Go Short

Entry Triggers for Short Positions:

Breakdown Below Key Support Levels:

  • Short below 21425, targeting 21385 → 21350 → 21305.

  • Short below 21305, targeting 21130 → 21000 → 20940.

Rejections at Resistance Levels:

  • Short on rejection at 21700, targeting 21640 → 21570 → 21425.

  • Short on rejection at 21800, targeting 21700 → 21640 → 21570.

Stop Loss (SL):

  • For Intraday Trades, place SL 15-20 points above entry.

    • Example: Short at 21425 → SL at 21445.

  • For Swing Trades, place SL 30-40 points above entry.

    • Example: Short at 21700 → SL at 21740.

Actionable Trade Examples

  1. Intraday Long Trade:

    • Trigger: Breakout above 21640.

    • SL: Below 21620 (20-point SL).

    • Targets: 21700 → 21760 → 21800.

  2. Swing Long Trade:

    • Trigger: Bounce from 21425.

    • SL: Below 21385 (40-point SL).

    • Targets: 21570 → 21640 → 21700.

  3. Intraday Short Trade:

    • Trigger: Breakdown below 21425.

    • SL: Above 21445 (20-point SL).

    • Targets: 21385 → 21350 → 21305.

  4. Swing Short Trade:

    • Trigger: Rejection at 21700.

    • SL: Above 21740 (40-point SL).

    • Targets: 21640 → 21570 → 21425.

Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #YM_F

Long Setup:

  • Condition: Weekly support at 44500 or 44445 holds on the 1H/4H chart.

    • Action: Enter long.

    • Add to position: If price sustains above entry levels.

    • Targets: 44795, 44980, 45125+.

  • Alternative Condition: Price holds 44675 and avoids testing 44500/44445.

    • Action: Wait for a 44910 breakout on the 1H chart.

    • Entry: Long above 44910.

    • Stop-Loss (SL): Below the breakout candle.

    • Reentry Plan: If the breakout fails, reenter on a second successful claim of 44910.

Short Setup:

  • Condition: Price rejects 44910 or 44795.

    • Action: Enter short.

    • SL: Above the rejecting hourly candle.

    • Targets: 44500/44445.

Example Level to Level Trading Plan for #RTY_F


Long Setup:

  • Condition: Weekly support at 2372/2368 holds on the 1H/4H chart.

    • Action: Enter long.

    • Targets: 2400, 2420, 2434.

  • Alternative Condition: Price holds 2405 without dropping below it.

    • Action: Wait for a 2423 breakout on the 1H chart.

    • Entry: Long above 2423.

    • Stop-Loss (SL): Below the breakout candle.

    • Reentry Plan: If the breakout fails, reenter on a second successful claim of 2423.

Short Setup:

  • Condition: Price rejects 2435 or 2446.

    • Action: Enter short.

    • SL: Above the rejecting hourly candle.

    • Targets: Look for intraday supports at 2440, 2423/2420, 2413, and 2405.

[Bonus -2]

Here’s a recap of the levels and trade ideas from last week's newsletter for #ES and #NQ, now included as a bonus with annotated hourly charts.

  • This breakdown highlights chart reading and trade setups.

  • Overview:

    • Most long and one short play for #ES and #NQ worked as planned.

    • A couple of short plays didn’t pan out.

    • For #RTY and #YM, most short plays worked, but long plays (Sunday night) missed targets for #RTY.

    • Price Action Note: Both #RTY & #YM were choppier, especially #YM, so I avoided most trades last week.

Note about Terminology:

In my weekly reports and X (Twitter) posts, I often refer to terms like "must hold," "claim," or "fail." Here's a quick explanation of what these terms mean:

  • For intraday analysis: I consider the 15-minute or 1-hour candle close.

  • For trades spanning overnight to two days: I focus on the 4-hour candle close.

  • For a weekly or longer-term outlook: I rely on the daily candle close.

close above: claimed / close below: failed

These references are also available in the pinned thread on my X profile. I strongly recommend reading this thread for a deeper understanding of my chart analysis. If I get lot more subscribers and engagement, I plan to elaborate on my methodology in a separate Substack post in the future, the pinned thread on my X profile offers valuable insights for now.

Read this thread on X to learn about my chart reading method and examples of hold/fail/claim/reject setups for trade execution

Curious about your trading experiences. Share your trading moves inspired by this newsletter – the wins, the almost-wins, and the lessons learned. Drop your insights in the comments below or over on X (formerly Twitter). Let's learn and grow together!

Leave a comment

Be nimble and adjust your strategies according to market conditions and the mentioned support and resistance levels. Monitor flag levels for early signs of bias shifts. If you're not following me on X @trdnvestor , consider doing so for daily updates.

Wish you a great trading week!

Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. I am NOT a financial advisor.

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